FiveThirtyEight NBA Predictions currently sees the Boston Celtics as 5th-most likely to win NBA Finals

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/fivethirtyeight-nba-predictions-currently-sees-000909423.html



FiveThirtyEight NBA Predictions currently sees the Boston Celtics as 5th-most likely to win NBA Finals


Justin Quinn
Sat, February 5, 2022, 4:09 PM



It might surprise you to hear this, but the Boston Celtics’ recent spate of excellent play has them moving up — WAY up — some analytical models which attempt to track which teams are going to be standing when the 2022 NBA Playoffs end.


The model in question, FiveThirtyEight’s 2021-22 NBA Predictions, is updated after every game and using their forecast based on RAPTOR player ratings, sees the Celtics in a tie with the Los Angeles Clippers as being the fifth-most likely team to win the NBA title with 7% odds. Yes, you read that correctly. Currently, the Phoenix Suns sit in first place with a 17% shot, the Milwaukee Bucks second with 16%, the Utah Jazz third with 13% odds, and the Miami Heat just ahead of Boston and the Clips with an 8% chance.

The projection model also sees the Celtics with a 15% chance of making the Finals and an 86% shot at securing a place in the postseason.


It can’t be stressed enough that these models can change a lot with just one or two bad losses, but even so, it’s nice to see some analytics that gibe with the level of play the eye test has been recording of late.


Bob
MY NOTE:  Nothing succeeds like success.  A winning streak cures many ills and having a healthy squad showing what we can do will give us that winning streak.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/


The top teams predicted to WIN the Finals are:
Suns - 19%
Bucks - 18%
Jazz - 12%
Heat - 8%
Celtics - 7%

We're higher than GSW, the Sixers and the Bulls. The Lakers are given a .3% chance.


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bobheckler wrote:https://www.yahoo.com/sports/fivethirtyeight-nba-predictions-currently-sees-000909423.html



FiveThirtyEight NBA Predictions currently sees the Boston Celtics as 5th-most likely to win NBA Finals


Justin Quinn
Sat, February 5, 2022, 4:09 PM



It might surprise you to hear this, but the Boston Celtics’ recent spate of excellent play has them moving up — WAY up — some analytical models which attempt to track which teams are going to be standing when the 2022 NBA Playoffs end.


The model in question, FiveThirtyEight’s 2021-22 NBA Predictions, is updated after every game and using their forecast based on RAPTOR player ratings, sees the Celtics in a tie with the Los Angeles Clippers as being the fifth-most likely team to win the NBA title with 7% odds. Yes, you read that correctly. Currently, the Phoenix Suns sit in first place with a 17% shot, the Milwaukee Bucks second with 16%, the Utah Jazz third with 13% odds, and the Miami Heat just ahead of Boston and the Clips with an 8% chance.

The projection model also sees the Celtics with a 15% chance of making the Finals and an 86% shot at securing a place in the postseason.


It can’t be stressed enough that these models can change a lot with just one or two bad losses, but even so, it’s nice to see some analytics that gibe with the level of play the eye test has been recording of late.


Bob
MY NOTE:  Nothing succeeds like success.  A winning streak cures many ills and having a healthy squad showing what we can do will give us that winning streak.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/


The top teams predicted to WIN the Finals are:
Suns - 19%
Bucks - 18%
Jazz - 12%
Heat - 8%
Celtics - 7%

We're higher than GSW, the Sixers and the Bulls.  The Lakers are given a .3% chance.


.

Interesting. What’s even more interesting and kind of strange is that Golden State is not amongst the 5.

The Celtics recent surge has been built on beating bad teams. If we ignore that fact we will fall into a trap. We have a rather soft SOS the rest of the way which is great but let's see how we play against the really good teams. If we win our share of games against them it changes our trajectory.

Brooklyn (3), Denver (2) Atlanta (2) Memphis (2), [Philly, Milwaukee, Charlotte, GSW, Utah, Miami, Chicago and Dallas (1) ]

I wonder if their algorithm heavily weights point differential. The Celtics are currently third in the east. Usually point differential correlates with post season success. Third in the east gives them a chance to make the finals, and since their only two teams in the finals...

Shamrock1000 wrote:I wonder if their algorithm heavily weights point differential. The Celtics are currently third in the east. Usually point differential correlates with post season success. Third in the east gives them a chance to make the finals, and since their only two teams in the finals...

True, but the surge in our differential has been boosted by a few scrub teams.  Let's  see how we do vs the really good teams.  Win our share of games against them and it is all the way live!

dboss wrote:

Shamrock1000 wrote:I wonder if their algorithm heavily weights point differential. The Celtics are currently third in the east. Usually point differential correlates with post season success. Third in the east gives them a chance to make the finals, and since their only two teams in the finals...

True, but the surge in our differential has been boasted by a few scrub teams.  Let's  see how we do vs the really good teams.  Win our share of games against them and it is all the way live!

Scrub teams bingo. Next 4 games are games that we should get if we are indeed a legit playoff team. Atlanta-below 500, Brooklyn 8 game losing streak, ( we play them without Kyrie and Durant) , Philly- Good team, Denver- good team. I need all 4 games. 3-1 acceptable.

If we come out and go 1-14 from three at the start of these games probably won't go so well for us. If only we would quit taking them when they aren't falling. What ever happened to getting people in foul trouble and taking advantage of that?

Tardust

3 point shots are such a big part of our offense and at times has an addictive quality. Last night we won a game despite our 28.3% shooting from deep. I think that was because we put up 99 FGA to their 81. 18 more shots is significant

tardust wrote:

dboss wrote:

Shamrock1000 wrote:I wonder if their algorithm heavily weights point differential. The Celtics are currently third in the east. Usually point differential correlates with post season success. Third in the east gives them a chance to make the finals, and since their only two teams in the finals...

True, but the surge in our differential has been boasted by a few scrub teams.  Let's  see how we do vs the really good teams.  Win our share of games against them and it is all the way live!

Scrub teams bingo.   Next 4 games are games that we should get if we are indeed a legit playoff team.  Atlanta-below 500, Brooklyn 8 game losing streak,  ( we play them without Kyrie and Durant) ,  Philly- Good team,  Denver- good team.  I need all 4 games.  3-1 acceptable.  

If we come out and go 1-14 from three at the start of these games probably won't go so well for us.   If only we would quit taking them when they aren't falling.  What ever happened to getting people in foul trouble and taking advantage of that?

Sure, I get your points, but even before tis streak and throughout the season, the Celtics have consistently had a much higher point differential than would be expected given their winning percentage. Think about how many close games the Celtics lost, including games that were close throughout and games where they coughed up a lead to lose in the last minute. They seemed to never win a close game, meaning most of there wins were of a significant margin. Taken together, that translates into a point differential better than expected for their record. Could be they were legitimately chokers early on and are not learning not to to choke, or possibly they just had an incredible streak of bad luck in close contests. My guess is a little bit of both.

Rock on a recent Podcast with A Sherrod and Gary Washburn he went down the list of 12 games that were quite winnable.  

We have had more than our share of really bad losses.  He (Washburn) commented that even if we will win 1/2 of those games, the Celtic would be sitting in the top half of the East.  

The Celtics are learning how to win with new teammates and a new coach.  Availability has played a big part.

dboss wrote:

The Celtics are learning how to win with new teammates and a new coach.  Availability has played a big part.