It turns out Rob Williams is dominating the NBA

https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/celtics/it-turns-out-rob-williams-is-dominating-the-nba



It turns out Rob Williams is dominating the NBA


By Nick Friar
WEEI 93.7
a day ago



There’s no question Rob Williams has made some serious progress this season. The raw talent that’s always been there is finally turning into something more. But how much more exactly?

If you’re of the mind that one stat tells the whole story of a player — like those who swear by WAR in baseball — Time Lord has turned into one of the most dominant forces in the NBA. As of Thursday morning, Time Lord is leading the league with a 142.9 offensive rating.

But it doesn’t stop there. As it turns out, Williams is also the NBA’s leader in defensive rating (101.1), just narrowly ahead of Rudy Gobert (101.4). Now, if you’re wondering why Gobert is right behind Williams in both categories, you are, in fact, onto something.

Taylor Snow
@taylorcsnow
Rob Williams is leading the NBA in both offensive and defensive rating



We won’t get too far into the weeds of how offensive and defensive ratings are calculated, but just know that offensive rebounds are a significant part of the former and both blocks and defensive rebounds are a big part of the latter. Which is why Ivica Zubac has the sixth-highest offensive rating in the NBA and Kevin Looney has the third-highest defensive rating.

While I’m not as interested in the offensive rating given the company he has atop the list, Williams’ defensive rating is absolutely noteworthy. As much as Gobert’s defensive prowess hasn’t manifested into a title run out in Utah, it’s undeniable that having a force in the paint on the defensive end makes a big difference. Perhaps if he were playing with a greater offensive star then things would be different. But when it comes to Williams, if nothing else, this is further indication he is progressing in the right direction.


Bob
MY NOTE:  Unfortunately this platform doesn't always allow pics to be fully shown.  On the graphic shown Robert Williams leads the league with a Defensive Rating of 101.1.  Rudy Gobert is #2 @ 101.3. The article says 101.4, but the graphic says 101.3.


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cowens/oldschool wrote:

gyso wrote:Bob,

I see the entire image just fine.  If you are on a phone or tablet (or old lo-res monitor), the image gets cut off.

Here is the image at 640:

I question the offensive ratings, the defensive ratings I agree with, defense is stopping your man and any man you can help on. RWill and Capella have very limited offensive games, but great skill at catching lobs and rolling. How can an offensive player like Devin Booker or Kevin Durant not be in the top 10? I understand it is based on FG efficiency, but something is off, if guys without a basic jumper are rated this high...???

Cow,

"I understand it is based on FG efficiency, but something is off, if guys without a basic jumper are rated this high...???"


You are misunderstanding what Offensive and Defensive Ratings are.  It is NOT based upon FG efficiency.  That is what's "off".

A team's Offensive Rating = average number of points scored by that team per 100 possessions.
A team's Defensive Rating = average number points given up by that team per 100 possessions.

An individual player's OffRtg and DefRtg are the average number points scored/given up by their team when that player is on the floor per 100 possessions.  NOT per game, per 100 possessions.  Boston is 19th, averaging 101.1 possessions per game.  So our per game numbers are 1% off from the 100 possession standard.  Pretty close.

The Net Rating = Offensive Rating - Defensive Rating

If you have a negative Net Rating that means that, however many point you score, or however many great defensive stops you make, your team loses ground when you are on the floor.  For example:  Marcus Smart has a 109 Offensive Rating and a 105 Defensive Rating, for a Net Rating of +4.  That means that the Boston Celtics score 4 more points than they give up per 100 possessions when he is on the court.  It doesn't have anything to do with how many points he individually scores, nor how efficiently he scores them.  It looks at Smart as part of the 5-man unit, however it gets done and whatever his contribution to it is.  The same is true with his Defensive Rating.  The team gives up 105 points per 100 possessions when he is on the court.  It doesn't matter whether he's single-handedly locking down their best scorer or if he's just another cog in Ime's machine.  

In the case of Robert Williams it is showing that The Time Lord's time on the court is highly productive.  The Boston Celtics score an average of 142.9 points per 100 possessions, but only give up an average of 101.1 points per 100 possessions, during the minutes he is on the court, for a Net Rating of +41.8.  That's crazy good.  Keh-razy.

When the total number of data points increase (i.e. more minutes, more fgas, more ftas, etc.) you start to get a more reliable idea of what you're looking at.  That is why I never use an 18mpg bench player's /36mpg stats as evidence he should be a starter.  Nor do I compare him to starters, I only compare him to players who play a comparable number of minutes and who play the same position.  If he actually played 36mpg his numbers might look significantly worse since he'd be playing against starters more and there'd be more opportunities for him to turn the ball over, etc.  Or, he could look better because he's developed some rhythm, more confidence, more experience.  But sometimes, not often but sometimes, what you see is what you get.

Robert Williams.................2018-2019.............2019-2020...........2020-2021..........2021-2022
Minutes per Game-----------8.8-------------------13.4----------------18.9---------------30.0
Total Minutes----------------283-------------------388-----------------985----------------1408
Offensive Rating------------132-------------------134-----------------139----------------143
Defensive Rating-----------100--------------------98------------------104----------------101
Net Rating------------------+32-------------------+36----------------+35----------------+42

As you can see, and as we pretty much already knew, RWill's mpg and total minutes have been ramping up pretty significantly after Year 2 because he's been healthy.  The more minutes he plays, the more we can be confident what we're seeing is the real deal and not just a small sample size, right?  Well, even as he plays more minutes, and competes more against NBA starting centers, his Net Rating was pretty steady for the first 3 years, with a big jump this year.  To quote your brother from another mother, Kelly Olynyk, "the bounce is real".


Bob


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