Do Celtics have the best starting five in NBA?

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/do-celtics-have-nbas-best-starting-five-heres-what-numbers-say



Do Celtics have the best starting five in NBA?



2H AGO

BY CHRIS FORSBERG
CELTICS INSIDER


If the 2021-22 Boston Celtics had a scrapbook, this was a surefire entry. Maybe even the cover photo.

Early in the third quarter against the Nets on Thursday night, Robert Williams’ hustle chasing an offensive rebound created a second-chance opportunity. Marcus Smart casually flipped a behind-the-back pass to Jayson Tatum at the top of the key. Tatum surveyed Brooklyn's scrambling defense and sidearmed an absurd bounce pass that split three defenders before hitting Jaylen Brown on the baseline. Brown spotted two defenders scrambling his way and calmly dipped low enough to deliver a bounce pass to a cutting Al Horford for a layup that had Boston’s bench bouncing with glee.

The once-infuriating, isolation-heavy 2021-22 Boston Celtics now sometimes operate like a 1986 Celtics tribute band. These Celtics make quick decisions, hard cuts, and extra passes -- often with some extra flare -- then routinely get rewarded with easy buckets. Ime Udoka might even be getting an occasional flashback to his early days on the Spurs bench and “The Beautiful Game."


Chris Forsberg
@ChrisForsberg_
Fancy passing.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1497030959035785216


It’s clear that Boston’s starters have completely bought into Udoka’s desires on both ends of the floor and that has spurred (pun fully intended) the Celtics’ improbable midseason turnaround. Boston might not have the most talented player on the court when the Eastern Conference playoffs tip in April, but they might just have the best five-man lineup in the NBA.


Boston’s starting five of Smart, Tatum, Brown, Horford and Williams are not just thriving lately, they’re running roughshod over the rest of the NBA. Boston’s starters now own a net rating of plus-27.8 in 309 minutes together over 24 games. Not only is that the best net rating in the NBA among any five-man group with at least 200 minutes together, it’s a staggering 7 points better than the closest quintet (Minnesota, +20.eight).


Best in the league

C's starting five net rating
plus +/----------27.8
NBA rank--------No. 1

In the 15 seasons that the NBA has tracked advanced lineup data, the only five-man group to log at least 200 minutes that ended a season within 4 points of Boston’s current net rating was a Knicks quintet (Jason Kidd, Tyson Chandler, Carmelo Anthony, JR Smith, and Raymond Felton) that was plus-25.3 over 269 minutes together in 2012-13.

Over the past decade, only three five-man groups have finished with a net rating north of 20 with at least 400 minutes. There’s a real chance that Boston could join that group and, if they maintain their recent ways, be the best of that bunch.

To put things in perspective, Boston’s 2008 starting lineup -- the one that spent most fourth quarters watching Gino dance on the JumboTron during lopsided wins -- had a plus-19.4 net rating, albeit in an absurd 1,073 minutes together over 59 games that year.

When the Celtics limped out of Madison Square Garden at three games under .500 after an embarrassing national-TV crumble on January 6, Boston’s starting group had played only 131 minutes over 11 games. The starters had a solid plus-15.5 net rating in that span but the unit wasn’t healthy enough to get consistent returns.


USA TODAY Sports


Now TNT might ban the Celtics because of how many lopsided wins they’ve had on their air the past couple weeks.

In the 50 days since that low-point loss to the Knicks, Boston’s starters have a preposterous rating of plus-35.6 in 195 minutes together over 14 games. The glitzy number is Boston’s defensive rating while allowing an impossibly low 84.1 points per 100 possessions. But just as noticeable is an offensive rating that has spiked to 119.7 for the starting group in that span. That’s a mark that would be nearly four points better than Utah’s league-leading offensive rating if maintained.


Yes, the numbers are absolutely juiced from dominating inferior (or injury-depleted) opponents but the Celtics have still shown that, when healthy, this team has the potential to hang with anyone in the NBA.

With his deadline tinkering, Brad Stevens delivered Udoka a top 7 that he can confidently lean on without a dip in defensive intensity. Newcomer Derrick White has only enhanced Boston’s thirst for ball movement and his defensive versatility gives Udoka the flexibility to go small in crunch-time lineups.

Udoka deserves a whole bunch of credit for enduring the bumps in the road at the start of the season. The Celtics had a flawed roster and injuries made it even tougher for them to play the sort of basketball that Udoka desired. He stayed the course and demanded more from his players. He’s getting it now.


The Celtics are still prone to maddening stretches where the offense grinds to a halt and they abandon their ball-moving ways. But the two biggest questions moving forward are:


1) Can the Celtics maintain their ball-sharing ways in crunch time against quality opponents? Boston has been woeful in clutch games (11-18 in games within 5 points in the final 5 minutes) this season. Boston's offense rating tends to dip and their isolation spikes in those instances. This team could use some nail-biters over the final 21 games to ensure they don’t get away from what works in the tensest moments.

2) Can Boston stay healthy when it matters? The Celtics were fortunate that Smart missed just one game after rolling his ankle, aided by the time off at the All-Star break. Williams has been more present this season but couldn’t go in the playoffs last year. Celtics fans held their breath when Brown got up clutching his left wrist late in Thursday’s win over the Nets -- the same wrist he had surgery on last season. Brown said he’s fine but the Celtics really need their top 7 healthy for the postseason to have a chance to compete.

Smart has been fantastic since coming back from a bout with COVID in late January. The Celtics offense didn’t have the same pace and pep without him during the hiccup against Detroit before the All-Star break. Williams has been a revelation and his defensive presence has been a monster part of Boston’s surge.

Udoka deserves a whole bunch of credit for enduring the bumps in the road at the start of the season. The Celtics had a flawed roster and injuries made it even tougher for them to play the sort of basketball that Udoka desired. He stayed the course and demanded more from his players. He’s getting it now.

But a lot of Boston’s turnaround boils down to health and more time together has allowed the starting group to level up. Udoka made small tweaks on the defensive end, like moving Williams to the roamer role, and Boston emerged as the best defense in the NBA. He needs to get the team to continue to buy into quick decisions and ball movement but that’s headed in the right direction.

And Boston’s starting five gives this team a chance every single night -- as long as they are committed to playing the right way on both ends.


Bob


.

Statistically yes, but I 'm still going with the Dubs

Lots of unknowns here. The Celts are as good as any. Just want the team to develop more confidence at the offensive end. There are other pretty dramatic lineups out there.

Embiid & Harden with others.
KD, KI, Drummond with others.
The Dubs when Draymond is back.

A lot to watch for this season.

Prakash,

Thank God for League Pass!!

db

They are certainly one of the better starting 5's in the NBA but the Suns and the Warriors are still the two best teams in the NBA and they have solid starting 5's.  I think Boston has the better starting center over GS but GS has 3 high end guard/wing players in their lineup (Curry, Thompson and Wiggins)

We split with the Suns and lost to GS at home by 4.  We play them on the road on March 16th.

We are a 2 big team in our starting lineup just like Memphis but GS and the Suns run with one traditional center.

Anyways our starting 5 seems to be working  so at this point it is all about how deep the well runs.