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Post by 112288 Mon Jan 09, 2023 9:48 pm

Celtics Wrap: Boston Outlasts Bulls In Old-School Affair
Al Horford buried the Bulls



NESN by Keagan Stiefel

The Boston Celtics fended off a scrappy Chicago Bulls squad to leave TD Garden with a 107-99 win Monday night.

The Celtics improved their NBA-best record to 29-12 while the Bulls dropped to 19-22.

ONE BIG TAKEAWAY
It took a while for the Celtics to finally settle into this matchup without Marcus Smart running the show, but they were able to thanks to a timely breakout by Jayson Tatum and an unfortunate injury to Bulls star DeMar DeRozan.

Chicago worked down Boston’s lead to just two points a few minutes into the third quarter, making it look like the Bulls were going to improve their record to 7-1 against the Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets this season. Then Jayson Tatum happened.

Tatum went on a 9-0 run by his lonesome across just 1:07 of game time, extending the Celtics lead to 13 points halfway through the period. Just before that run, DeRozan went down with a non-contact injury before he would eventually be pulled from the game for good with a quad contusion.

Throughout the remaining 18 minutes, Chicago would stage a couple of comeback attempts but ultimately fall short. A bad shooting team from beyond the arc, the Bulls couldn’t keep up with the Celtics without DeRozan’s mid-range excellence.

STARS OF THE GAME
— Tatum finished with 32 points, eight rebounds, seven assists and a steal.

— Grant Williams put together another solid performance off the bench, finishing with 20 points, eight rebounds and two big blocks.

— Zach LaVine as unconscious in the fourth quarter, going 6 of 9 from the field with 15 points. He finished with 27 points, seven rebounds and six assists.

WAGER WATCH
In his first start since returning from offseason knee surgery on Dec. 16, Robert Williams III surpassed the total block number of 1.5 set by DraftKings Sportsbook pregame. With -115 odds of eclipsing that number, Williams helped turn $100 wagers into a net total of $186.96.

UP NEXT
The Celtics will welcome a Zion Williamson-less New Orleans Pelicans squad to TD Garden on Wednesday night. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET.

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Post by 112288 Mon Jan 09, 2023 9:52 pm

BIG AL BAILS THE CELTICS OUT!

Celtics have to play 48 minutes of hard basketball.  They became comfortable too often during the game and let Chicago back into the game 3 different times!

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Last edited by 112288 on Tue Jan 10, 2023 7:48 am; edited 2 times in total
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Post by bobheckler Mon Jan 09, 2023 11:19 pm

We closed out some quarters weakly, let them put a run on that made the game closer than it needed to be. You don't win Championships against Championship-level teams by letting them close the gap in the last few minutes of a quarter.

Jaylen with a 7-21, 0-8 from 3 night. I know that shooters are supposed to have short-term memories but he's not a gnat. He is SO strong when he drives. SO strong. He ended up with 19 points and 14 of them were from short-range.

Jayson with a strong game, including right from the jump. He's usually a slow starter, thank goodness he wasn't today because Jaylen wasn't helping him.

A GREAT game by Grant. 20 points on 7-15. Only 3-9 from 3, but he was putting the ball on the floor very effectively. The benefit of getting a rep for being an elite 3pt shooter, they're more concerned with driving you off the arc than they are about your driving to the rim. He's still shooting 42.2% from 3 even with this off night. Grant also had 8 boards and 2 blocks. I am now really starting to question if he's going to be in green next year. He's pricing himself out of Brad's ability to pay him. That's good for us this year but not next, and if Brad realizes this and trades him by the deadline to get something for him rather than just having him walk for nothing, then that hurts our playoff run.

Pritchard got 4 minutes. We didn't look that great in those 4 minutes, no fault of Payton's, and got sat. I think Brad is going to move him. Just my gut.

We shot a paltry 43.7% from the field and an execrable 26.8% from 3, and we still won by 8 despite a 6-9, 3-5 from 3, 15 point 4th quarter from LaVine. We won this game from the line. 20-21 vs 9-14. There's 11 points right there. More ftas and a much higher ft% (95% vs 64%). A lot of non-calls, but they went both way I thought. I thought for sure we deserved a few more and the Bulls deserved a few more too. Doesn't matter, give them an extra 10 ftas and us another 3 and we still win because we hit ours and they didn't hit theirs.

Our league-leading MoV +5.9 actually went up despite our weak closing.

https://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore/_/gameId/401468761


Bob



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Post by dbrown4 Tue Jan 10, 2023 6:21 am

I've had another thought about stats with analytics and what they reveal. There are averages and then there are intra-game stats. Both have their place.

The best I can tell, the league average for the 3-ball is somewhere between 32-34%. I honestly cannot tell what I'm looking at or if I'm googling the right thing, but what that tells me is the 3-point line is in just the right place currently. Move it back any further and the 2-point shot is more valuable, move it in like in college and the 3-point shot becomes more valuable. You've heard my diatribe on EV so I'll spare everyone but if the league averages 50% from 2-ville and 33% from 3-ville, there is no difference in EV between the two. They give you the same result.

Now, intra-game, this becomes very interesting and it seems to reveal how the Celtics are thinking and why things are clicking again. The Celtics shot 58% from 2-ville last night. (27-46). If you put that in the EV calculator (sorry cowens/old school!! And I just noticed you have "school" in your name!!), that number comes in just a shade below 1.2. This is well above the league average. When we can't throw the 3-ball in the ocean like last night @ 26%, the 2-point shot being better bails us out. And that's what we saw last night. Lots of drives down the lane for lay-ups or draws and hand-offs for the dunk, etc.

Still almost half of our shots came from 3-ville. 41 out of 87 attempts. It was funny because it didn't seem like we missed that many nor shot that many from 3-ville last night. The threes were more timely with GW and AH hitting critical ones to widen the lead or accentuate a run.

Anyway, not sure there's a point in there but something is there and that's what the Celtics are figuring out for the league. The EV can be a moving statistic during the game or just an overall stat from the beginning of the league. It serves more of a purpose intra-game though and how to adjust. I'm sure the stat-heads are all over this and relaying it to their coaches intra-game with the goal of finding the "perfect" mix of 2's vs. 3's during a game that maximize points or give you enough points to beat your opponent. As with any stat, though, it is hard to isolate one or two variables and assume the rest are constant to make your point. Basketball has so many nuances that it's almost impossible to draw any conclusions.

Now, RWIII was ridiculous last night. Again, not an overly impressive stat line but dang it, that boy was everywhere! (GW and Brogden looked great as well.) RWIII completely disrupting their offense and went Bill Russell on us tapping out missed shots for OR's out the wazoo. The start of the 4th quarter was proof that things are getting back to what we saw earlier in the season. There was even a drive by AH starting from a fake 3 which he pushed to the basket, looked like he was going to take a running jumper but passed it to you-know-who hanging out at the rim for a slam dunk! It has to be disheartening to the opposing teams scouting report that says force clumsy Al drive it to the basket and we'll steal it, only to have RWIII open and lurking inches from the basket. Now THAT'S priceless!

Also seeing some KG-like emotion from JT. Good to see. Going to need it for payback tomorrow vs. NOP and then BKN the next night. Lot's of B-ball to go and in short order. So short, I forgot we are playing NOP tomorrow until the announcers mentioned it! No chicken counting.

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Post by cowens/oldschool Tue Jan 10, 2023 1:10 pm

We won by 8, but it felt much closer. We’re giving up leads late in the game. Jaylen with a Herculean post up drive running over the massive Drummond, can’t even remember if he hit the shot; didn’t matter as I’ve never seen a Darryl Dawkins type run over like that. His underwater workouts have definitely made him even stronger, now if he could only improve his shooting touch, he’s getting like the bad Smart lately from years ago. Once he straightens that out we will further rolling. Guess it’s a good sign to win without playing our best….

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Post by bobheckler Tue Jan 10, 2023 9:05 pm

dbrown4 wrote:I've had another thought about stats with analytics and what they reveal.  There are averages and then there are intra-game stats.  Both have their place.    

The best I can tell, the league average for the 3-ball is somewhere between 32-34%.  I honestly cannot tell what I'm looking at or if I'm googling the right thing, but what that tells me is the 3-point line is in just the right place currently.  Move it back any further and the 2-point shot is more valuable, move it in like in college and the 3-point shot becomes more valuable.  You've heard my diatribe on EV so I'll spare everyone but if the league averages 50% from 2-ville and 33% from 3-ville, there is no difference in EV between the two.  They give you the same result.  

Now, intra-game, this becomes very interesting and it seems to reveal how the Celtics are thinking and why things are clicking again.  The Celtics shot 58% from 2-ville last night.  (27-46).  If you put that in the EV calculator (sorry cowens/old school!!  And I just noticed you have "school" in your name!!), that number comes in just a shade below 1.2.  This is well above the league average.  When we can't throw the 3-ball in the ocean like last night @ 26%, the 2-point shot being better bails us out.  And that's what we saw last night.  Lots of drives down the lane for lay-ups or draws and hand-offs for the dunk, etc.  

Still almost half of our shots came from 3-ville.  41 out of 87 attempts.  It was funny because it didn't seem like we missed that many nor shot that many from 3-ville last night.  The threes were more timely with GW and AH hitting critical ones to widen the lead or accentuate a run.  

Anyway, not sure there's a point in there but something is there and that's what the Celtics are figuring out for the league.  The EV can be a moving statistic during the game or just an overall stat from the beginning of the league.  It serves more of a purpose intra-game though and how to adjust.  I'm sure the stat-heads are all over this and relaying it to their coaches intra-game with the goal of finding the "perfect" mix of 2's vs. 3's during a game that maximize points or give you enough points to beat your opponent.  As with any stat, though, it is hard to isolate one or two variables and assume the rest are constant to make your point.  Basketball has so many nuances that it's almost impossible to draw any conclusions.    

Now, RWIII was ridiculous last night.  Again, not an overly impressive stat line but dang it, that boy was everywhere!  (GW and Brogden looked great as well.)  RWIII completely disrupting their offense and went Bill Russell on us tapping out missed shots for OR's out the wazoo.  The start of the 4th quarter was proof that things are getting back to what we saw earlier in the season.  There was even a drive by AH starting from a fake 3 which he pushed to the basket, looked like he was going to take a running jumper but passed it to you-know-who hanging out at the rim for a slam dunk!  It has to be disheartening to the opposing teams scouting report that says force clumsy Al drive it to the basket and we'll steal it, only to have RWIII open and lurking inches from the basket.  Now THAT'S priceless!  

Also seeing some KG-like emotion from JT.  Good to see.  Going to need it for payback tomorrow vs. NOP and then BKN the next night.  Lot's of B-ball to go and in short order.  So short, I forgot we are playing NOP tomorrow until the announcers mentioned it!  No chicken counting.  

db  


DBrown,

I don't know what source you are using but according to basketball-reference.com the league 3pt fg% average this season is 35.7%.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats_per_game.html


And according to nba.com the Celtics have the 8th highest 3pt fg% as a team, at 37.1%.  We take the 2nd most 3pt fgas/game @ 41.7fgas/game.

https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/traditional?dir=A&sort=FG3_PCT


Bob


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Post by worcester Tue Jan 10, 2023 9:53 pm

Db - the 2 point shot is actually more than a 2 point value when you factor in how many more fouls are called against 2 point than 3 point attempts. Since our ft% as a team is .826%, we score a lot of points when we are fouled and have made a 2-pointer.
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Post by dboss Tue Jan 10, 2023 10:36 pm

One big takeaway from the win was the Celtics holding them under 100 points.

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Post by cowens/oldschool Tue Jan 10, 2023 10:59 pm

worcester wrote:Db - the 2 point shot is actually more than a 2 point value when you factor in how many more fouls are called against 2 point than 3 point attempts. Since our ft% as a team is .826%, we score a lot of points when we are fouled and have made a 2-pointer.

We have a lot of great finishers, White Brogdan and GWill is greatly improved, then ofcourse the elite 3, the 2 J’s and the freak Timelord. Jaylen already has highlight dunks over every major superstar player in the game. I’ve seen some of the best and 2 J’s have comparable dunking/finishing ability to any of the greats from Dr J to Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady. Jaylen is a faster and more ferocious dunker than Dr J, didn’t say better, just different style and strengths. Timelord is the most explosive player in the league and Jayson can obviously dunk so easily with his great handles and length. We got loads of drivers/finishers compared to what’s out there and hope we can use this more to our advantage.

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Post by worcester Wed Jan 11, 2023 12:11 am

82.6% I should have written. Yes, we have a great go-to-the-basket game. No shame in relying on it and less on the 3's. Getting the right mix of the 2 is the trick.
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Post by bobheckler Wed Jan 11, 2023 12:37 am

worcester wrote:82.6% I should have written. Yes, we have a great go-to-the-basket game. No shame in relying on it and less on the 3's. Getting the right mix of the 2 is the trick.


worcester,

We're tied with Miami for the #1 ft% in the league at 82.6%.

We are, unfortunately, #23 in the league in ftas with 22.9/game.

All this supports your claim that driving to the basket creates contact which gets whistles and we are great at capitalizing on them from the line.


Bob


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Post by cowens/oldschool Wed Jan 11, 2023 4:05 am

I love watching us drive, we have to alert coach Joe about this….

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Post by dbrown4 Wed Jan 11, 2023 6:20 am

Good thought worcester, further proving my point.  The happy medium I'm going to stab at is somewhere south of 50% for number of 3-point launches, probably somewhere between 33% and 45% of total shots attempted.  The more (in)accurate the team is intra-game with the 3-ball (or 2-ball for that matter) will dictate when you should take your foot off the pedal or not.  That's our problem.  We just keep launching 3's and ask for forgiveness later.  CJ's got to be watching those number like a hawk DURING the game and make the appropriate adjustments.  That's where you get the randomness.  If you take the time outs, the other team knows what you're up to and can anticipate your next move(s).  If you don't call the TO's and let the team figure things out, then things would appear more random and on the fly.  And that's what we see and have really come to enjoy when this team is on.  CJ's asking the whole team to become player and coach for flow reasons.  

That's why you have to really appreciate what Russell did being a player/coach those two seasons.  He had to have a split-brain, almost out of body experience to master that, being in the game and out of the game at the same time.  And master that to perfection he did since they won the championship with him as player AND coach.  

Folks, the more I think about it, that may be the most amazing thing Bill Russell ever did and nothing is ever said about it.  Think about that.  It's never been repeated on that level or any level.  Church and State have been separated ever since.  And he won two championships at the NBA level.

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Post by worcester Wed Jan 11, 2023 8:10 am

Two Chips as a player/coach. Russell was incomparable.
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Post by sinus007 Wed Jan 11, 2023 9:13 am

Hi,
I believe it was 3 seasons: Bill Russell player-coach.

AK
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Post by Ktron Wed Jan 11, 2023 4:28 pm

Db

That's where you get the randomness. If you take the time outs, the other team knows what you're up to and can anticipate your next move(s). If you don't call the TO's and let the team figure things out, then things would appear more random and on the fly. And that's what we see and have really come to enjoy when this team is on. CJ's asking the whole team to become player and coach for flow reasons.


Can you please stop
Insisting that it’s good that the coach is not calling timeouts at the appropriate time?
Every athlete running, walking, crawling or still tucked away in the womb needs a coach. NBA teams do employ scouts so your not fooling anyone by not or taking a time out. That’s not why you call a time out anyway.
The players don’t need to and shouldn’t be figuring it out. That’s what you have 38 coaches on the bench for.

You beat the drum of let ‘em figure it out and in the same post you praise Russell for being able to play, coach and win, if Russ relied on his players it’s because they’ve played TOGETHER for a long time and even then they needed his direction so, sorry. I think you’re dead wrong about the rolling the ball and letting em “figgin” it out!
There may be a better argument for strategically not calling Time Outs when the other team is on a 20-0 run. If there is i would love to hear it.

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Post by dbrown4 Thu Jan 12, 2023 7:48 am

Ktron,

You're not seeing the forest for the trees.  Like it or not, CJ's doing it and for the most part it works.  In the end, after knocks on the head to get there, it give the players confidence in themselves.  They begin to see themselves as part of the solution, not part of the problem every time the coach bails them out.  It's not an all the time thing, just most of the time with CJ.  Sorry, Ktron.  The proof is in the pudding.  We've got the best record in the league.  It must be working to some degree.

Yes, it's out of the box thinking and execution. But so were electric cars on the highway for all our lives until Tesla came along. Embrace the change.      

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Post by Ktron Thu Jan 12, 2023 5:05 pm

dbrown4 wrote:Ktron,

You're not seeing the forest for the trees.  Like it or not, CJ's doing it and for the most part it works.  In the end, after knocks on the head to get there, it give the players confidence in themselves.  They begin to see themselves as part of the solution, not part of the problem every time the coach bails them out.  It's not an all the time thing, just most of the time with CJ.  Sorry, Ktron.  The proof is in the pudding.  We've got the best record in the league.  It must be working to some degree.

Yes, it's out of the box thinking and execution.  But so were electric cars on the highway for all our lives until Tesla came along.  Embrace the change.         

db

Sorry not sorry db. I would love to coach against you. You’re viewing this through a lens that just doesn't match up with reality. Now your crediting our best record to Joe not calling time outs. We win in spite of that but its a bad habit and it’ll catch up with his chiclet chewing ass sooner or later.

Keep digging it if you must. I give up. You lose…:>)

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Post by worcester Thu Jan 12, 2023 6:54 pm

Six reasons to call a timeout in basketball:

https://www.hoopsking.com/the-6-crucial-times-you-need-to-call-a-timeout-in-basketball

1. When you spot a mistake/mistakes
2. To stop the momentum of the opposing team
3. To change the strategy both on offense and defense
4. To draw a play
5. To boost the energy of your team
6. Rest a team
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Post by gyso Thu Jan 12, 2023 10:43 pm

worcester wrote:Six reasons to call a timeout in basketball:

https://www.hoopsking.com/the-6-crucial-times-you-need-to-call-a-timeout-in-basketball

1. When you spot a mistake/mistakes
2. To stop the momentum of the opposing team
3. To change the strategy both on offense and defense
4. To draw a play
5. To boost the energy of your team
6. Rest a team

7. To advance the ball to the frontcourt in a tight game.
3a. To swap out players for an offensive or defensive set.
8. To stop KTron from cussing on the GameOn. 😁

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Post by worcester Thu Jan 12, 2023 10:48 pm

8. Was the best reason of all.
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