Celtics vs Heat - Eastern Conference Finals

There are  several factors in play for the Celtics going against the Heat.

Jimmy Butler

The Celtics will need to put a clamp on Jimmy Butler.  He is an excellent player but they cannot let him average 37.5 PPG as he did in his 5 game Bucks romp.  We need something more or less  in line with his 5 game Knicks production of 24.6 PPG.  We have enough guys who can match his physicality like Jaylen and Marcus plus Jayson.
 
I see Jaylen Brown as being the guy to be our primary defender against Butler.  Jaylen and other Celtics that get matched up with Jimmy need to pay special attention to avoiding fouls that come from getting faked out of their shorts.  Jimmy is a master of head and shoulder fakes.  He really reminds me of Paul Pierce in terms of his physical profile and his ability to get to the line.  He averaged 10.6  FTA against the Knicks and 9.6 vs the Bucks.

Bam Screens up top

Outside of Jimmy's ability to score off of Isolation, the other major component to the Heats offense is their reliance on high screens set by Bam and shooters like Strus, Robinson, Lowry and even Caleb Martin to use those high screens to free up their shots.
 
If Boston plays too much drop coverage it will allow the Heat to get too many open looks.  However with the much needed adjustment to return to a 2 big lineup, it really gives the Celtics front line more option to defend off screen and Pops/PNR.
 
Other than that,  the Celtics need to rotate out to shooters and get back in transition.  I saw some zone played by Boston against Philly along with other very sophisticated coverage.    CJ had them locked in on defense.

The Heat start Butler, Adebayo, Love, Strus and Vincent.  Their main rotation guys (17 plus MPG, includes Lowry, Martin and Duncan Robinson.  Cody Zeller and Highsmith have also seen a little action.

The Heat use a deeper rotation than the Celtics.

Road to victory

Last year the Heat held the home court advantage.  This year the Celtics have that advantage.
A quick look up and down that Heat roster reveals a team that cannot win playing man to man defense.  We already know what we are going to see from them on defense.  The Heat play more zone defenses than any other team in the NBA. The Celtics have struggled against their zones.

CJ needs to have his team well prepared to play offense against the variations of zone defense that the Heat will employ.  That is the single biggest task that the Celtics will face.  Their zone defenses can really mute the effectiveness of our superior matchups if we play too much ISO basketball.

The Heat will make every effort to turn the Celtics over and create easier transition points.  The Celtics (11.5) and the Heat (11.7) are pretty even when it comes to turning the ball over during this playoff run.

One additional change that I think needs to be made is expanding the rotation. The Celtics could use a rotational matchup vs Caleb Martin (10 and 5 off the bench).  CJ has two obvious choices.  That would be Grant or Sam.   I would also like to see PP get some run as a pace setter.

It's 8 down and 8 to go for banner # 18 so the Celtics have no choice but to play the game at a high level of perfection, intensity and determination.

I have not included all of the relevant analytical data but I am sure that others can add points of interest along with what they are feeling about this EC Finals matchup.

Help me out here.

Has a previous Celtics team had this many players win awards in the same season?

All NBA (Tatum and Brown), All Defensive Team (White). Sixth Man Of The Year (Brogdon) and Hustle Award (Smart)

Bobby Manning @RealBobManning
about 5 minutes ago
Malcolm Brogdon said #Celtics practice was a little loose and light today, and Al Horford stopped it to tell the group to tighten up.


Bob


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bobheckler wrote:Bobby Manning @RealBobManning
about 5 minutes ago
Malcolm Brogdon said #Celtics practice was a little loose and light today, and Al Horford stopped it to tell the group to tighten up.


Bob


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yep...time to put the mug face on.

Bob


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Bob

Thanks for posting the video.

As you know we split with them 2-2 but our 98-95 loss during the 4th meeting was due to no AH, no Jaylen and no Marcus.

Overall we beat them 114 - 111.5 in 4 games combined.

The Heat are in a playoff mode and the Celtics are as well. The Celtics defense has gone to another level. Rob logged 28 and 30 minutes in his last 2 games. I think he will be a decisive factor for us.

The Celtics will win this series.

Jay King @ByJayKing
about 1 hour ago
Joe Mazzulla said Robert Williams will continue starting.


Bob
MY NOTE:  Good thinking, Joe.  Aside from the fact that we started winning vs Philly when RWill started I would think that he'd be better at defending against Bam than Horford.  Bam is VERY mobile.  I'm not sure Al has the legs to stay in front of him, or catch him on a roll. Put Al on Kevin Love. Al went out to the arc for Embiid, he can go out to the arc for Love, and Kevin Love is less mobile than Embiid if he puts it on the floor.


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I think the combination of AH and RW3 vs Bam should work out for Boston.  We know different guys will switch  on to one player to another.

Another team that matches up well and gives the Celtics fits at times. The Heat are in their playoff mode again too, with Butler and Bam in good form.

It will be a battle. I like the Celtics to take it in 7.

bobheckler wrote:Jay King @ByJayKing
about 1 hour ago
Joe Mazzulla said Robert Williams will continue starting.


Bob
MY NOTE:  Good thinking, Joe.  Aside from the fact that we started winning vs Philly when RWill started I would think that he'd be better at defending against Bam than Horford.  Bam is VERY mobile.  I'm not sure Al has the legs to stay in front of him, or catch him on a roll.  Put Al on Kevin Love.  Al went out to the arc for Embiid, he can go out to the arc for Love, and Kevin Love is less mobile than Embiid if he puts it on the floor.


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I didn’t want to pile on, but read that the team wanted RWill to start much earlier and Mazulla was stubborn, still wanting to stick with White and more offense. When our defense is right, it triggers the running game and offense Joe.

Good points by everyone.

I think we can wear Butler down with multiple players. Throw JB, Marcus, D White, JT and Brogdon at him. I'm sure they will put him in the pnr to get switches, but we have enough guys that can guard. Wear him down.

Joe has to see that everyone is saying what a mismatch it is at coach and that Spo will run circles around him. He has to use this to coach harder to motivate his players to play a tough consistent 48 minutes every game. Sure Spo will throw everything he has at us. However, we have the better team. Joe has to be prepared and motivate. He will become a better coach in time, but no denying Spo has the experience in this case.

Great leadership by Al Horford by stopping practice yesterday to tell everyone to get their head right. The only thing that can beat us in this series is ourselves. We literally gave Philly two games and it nearly cost us. We cannot gift Miami any games in this series.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say we have learned our lesson and will beat in the Heat in five.

The Celtics had two pretty tough series vs the Hawks and the Sixers.  One of the overlooked strengths of the Celtics is their ability to win on the road during the playoffs.  

They won 2 road games in both series.  

I cannot predict how many games it will take to dispatch the Heat.  They are a mentally tough team.  In games where the Celtics may struggle making shots, the counter balance is playing great defense regardless of how the offense is playing.

All season long, the one thing I was most concerned about was the Celtics defense.  

I think that concern has all but faded away.  

Erik Spoelstra is a master of his craft.  Joe Mazzula has coached his team into the ECF.  It is going to be a chess match with CJ having an advantage because more of his players can play multiple positions and there exists a clear talent gap between both rosters. Spoelstar has the experience but CJ has the better team. I'm going with the better team in this one.

The Celtics will do well to get this first game under their belt.  How long will it be before he puts Martin in the starting lineup in place of Kevin Love?  I'm predicting that will be the first major adjustment for the Heat.  Tatum is poised to torch whoever tries to check him.  I read that Bam was going to check Tatum.  hummmm!

There is only one thing the Heat can do to slow the Celtics down.  Play zone, zone, zone.  The Celtics will slaughter the Heat in man to man coverage and Erik knows it.

There are two guys on the Heat that the Celtics should take away.  Strus and Robinson.  It is not all about Jimmy and Bam.  If the Celtics can limit Strus and Robinson, the Heat offense will disappear like 'a fart in the wind'

The sooner the Celtics do that, the quicker they will finish off the Heat.

Gallo running up and down the court.  He seems a bit slow/tentative to me.  Not seeing hard cuts.  Still, he's going endline-to-endline and that's good.  Move his feet and slid nicely on a rotation too. Fortunately we've shown we don't need him.

https://twitter.com/JaredWeissNBA/status/1658869856542785538


Bob


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Jay King @ByJayKing
about 1 hour ago
Robert Williams on how Al Horford stopped practice yesterday: “That’s all the time. He’s always on our ass when we need it.”


Jay King @ByJayKing
about 1 hour ago
Robert Williams on Al Horford: “He’s a bad MFer.”


Bob


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What we will need to do is structure and execute our game plan to make room for one more member to the I'm Playing Like A 5th Grader Club that now has two elite members, Kevin Durant and recently added James Harden although he was a shoe in with his past career playoff performances.  A no-brainer if you will.  

That would be Jimmy Butler.  Whoever locks him up one-on-one, which the consensus seems to be JB, will need to play out of his brain D.  This may affect his scoring to some degree but maybe not.  Maybe he's like Rudy and has been waiting for this moment his whole life.  I'd push all-in on that.  

Lakers are now in the unfamiliar position of losing the 1st game of a series.  Not that they can't overcome that as we saw DEN has some 2nd half weaknesses, but change makes teams uncomfortable.  DEN may have caught from us the Folding Up In The 2nd Half/Blowing A Huge Lead Flu that used to come around us at untimely moments and we're not altogether certain it has left Boston for good.  We'll see what happens Thursday for the Lakers, but this series will be about as far as Rob Kerplunka will get with this team as currently constructed.  

Again, it is uncanny that despite the fact that the Celtics are now odds on faves to win it all, ALL the stories are focused on MIA, DEN and LAL.  OK, 99% but it shouldn't bother me this much but let's face it.  Boston, despite its dynamic duo and complete, deep team set up, JT carrying us back to the Finals for Unfin18hed Business (BTW, love whoever came up with that design and I will buy one once we raise the Trophy!) our story just isn't fascinating enough or glitzy enough to attract coverage.  

Let's dispel just how good the Lakers are or think they are.  They beat a half-loaded, half-baked MEM team and then while somewhat impressive, knocked off the defending champs, who were clearly a shell of their former selves, hampered the whole season by Green's punching one of their own players and now facing what lies on the horizon.  Now LAL are up against a ridiculously talented DEN team that is going to clean their clocks.  Despite AD's great effort, help from LeBron and role players, DEN falling apart for most of the second half, DEN still wins.  LAL can look at game film all they want but LAL can't do much better and expect a different result.  Now at the Conference Finals level, DEN going up 2-0 is highly unlikely, but they are the only team that has that option.

That's why it's paramount that we do the same tonight.  No playing from behind, going down 0-1, blah, blah, blah.  Inside/Out.  Ball Movement.  All Downhill.  And start introducing Jimmy Butler to the 5th Grader Club.  It only takes flummoxing one high profile player on the opposing team to knock down the rest of the precariously placed dominoes.  But Boston loves the drama.  So stay tuned!!
             
db

P.S. The zones from MIA are impossible to set up if you are running them out of the gym.

db

The task of containing Butler from breaking out will need to be a team effort with JB leading the way. The way the Celtics switch means all hands on deck for getting a shot at Butler.