Official 2011 Playoff Thread

[dboss]

I am going to get this going.

First up...The NY Knicks.

Dboss

[sinus007]

Hi,
I'm back.
Finally....
Here's TV schedule.
Any word on Shaq and DW?
Good luck!

AK

[mulcogiseng]

Well here tis, the season that really counts is about to begin. Please put all the negativity and worries behind you. Just like last year at this time, the C's seem to be limping into the playoffs not playing well. The Knicks are about to find out the hard way just how ready this year's Celtics team is to compete for #18. My keys to the Kinicks series:
Rondo: He has to outplay Billups
Big 3: Two out of the three need to play well in each game.
JO: Keep it going big guy
Shaq: More important he be healthy for the second round series. Hopefully he gets a few minutes.
DWest: Let's hope he stays injury free and gives Rondo a break.
GlenDavis: our sixth man of the year, he comes to play
Nenad: Play the way you did when you first got here. He will be crucial to a victory in at least one game this playoff season. There will be less talk of the trade next year.
JGreen: Seriously, Green for Nate? A future building block. He could be a difference maker.
Alltherest: Good luck getting time in this series because it might be your last.
Celtics should dominate and they don't need all cylinders running to win this one. They will not self destruct against an emerging knicks team that is never asked to play defense. Even Chuck knows it's in the dictionary of all winning playoff teams.

[dboss]

Well here we are Celtics fans…At the beginning of the Playoffs and looking forward to a matchup with the New York knicks.

If nothing else this series should help the Celtics get into shape because NY is an ultimate run and gun team.

Matchups

I think that the key matchup in this series will be Rajon Rondo against Chauncey Billups. We have seen some disturbing trends with Rajon over an extended stretch of games where he appeared to be unable or unwilling to push the ball, penetrate the lane and find open guys for easy looks. While we can all speculate about what has caused this inconsistency, one thing for sure is that the Celtics can only go as far as Rondo is able to take them.

Rondo is a gifted highly intelligent stubborn, at times stoic leader on this team. He has the ability to take over a game at both ends if he wants to. No one can stop Rondo except for Rondo. I have no doubts that his fierce competitive nature will be on full display as the Celtics take the court against an old rival. His teammates, the coach and all the fans are depending on him to set the tone for what should be a fun series.

Billups is now the old warrior. Crafty, experienced and determine to get another run at glory before he hangs up the sneakers. Chauncey can be a assassin with his quick jumper from virtually anywhere on the court. He is a physically strong player and will post Rajon down low drawing fouls and other defenders .

Advantage Rondo. While Billups is still a very good player he is really a shadow of his former self. He averages 17.4 PPG and 5.5 assists but is shooting a dismal .403% from the field. He will look to get fouled where he is a knock down free throw shooter. Rondo is quicker than Billups and the Knicks are not known as a help defensive team. Rondo should be able to take advantage of Chauncey’s lack of speed getting to the rim and finding open players on the court.

Kevin Garnett returned to form this year and looks more than ready for a productive Playoff campaign. First up Amare Stoudemire, an absolute stud. Amare really carried this team all season trying to get them to play hard and with passion. He averaged 25 PPG and 8 boards. He can drive to the hole or knock shots down from the elbow. However KG has always been a tough matchup for Amare because of his length. KG played in 71 games this year averaging 31 MPG and looks to be in great shape and ready to again put his defensive stamp on team. KG averaged 14.9 PPG and 8.9 boards and shot the ball well from the field 52%.

Advantage/Even …Cannot really take one over the other because both of them are impact players. Amare must score a lot of points for the Knicks to have a chance and KG just needs to do what KG does. Quarterback the defense and drain those pretty jumpers from the outside. Amare is not the best defender and he does not pass the ball well from the double teams that he may see. The Celtics have the luxury of playing him straight up with KG.

Paul Pierce and Carmelo Anthony have never been rivals because they only got to play against each other twice a year. That will change now.
Carmelo’s addition to the Knicks gives Them 2 legit stars that can flat out play the game. He has a total offensive game from outside or inside. But I’m putting my money on Paul Pierce.

Pierce has produced a tremendous season. Shooting ball at a 50% clip and free throws at 86% while averaging 18.9 PPG and 5.4 boards. PP is a complete player, a game changing and our ultimate go to guy. This year he shot the ball better than at any time in his entire career.

Advantage / Pierce..Melo may score more points but Paul will play defense unlike Melo and that is the big difference.

Shaq/JON/Kristic/baby vs Turiaf. Hard to believe but the Knick only have one center on their team and he is a back up at best. At this point we do not know who will be starting. Shaq is supposed to play but he was noticeably limping when they showed him walking last night. But the Celtics do not need Shaq to beat NY. Jon looked very good the other night at both ends and Krisitc is starting to feel more comfortable in the Celtics schemes. And then there is baby perhaps the most underated player on the Celtics.

The centers need to clog the lane, rebound the basketball, quickly find RR and get up the court. They need to post up on offense and draw the defense in to open things up for our shooters.

Advantage goes to the Celtics

At shooting guard Ray Allen will probably be matched up with Fields. Fields is a rookie and recently was benched in favor of Tony Douglas. Fields can shoot from the outside, get to the rim and is a very good rebounder. Ray is also having a tremendous year shooting the basketball. Ray needs to get up the court on offense and continue his relentless movement without the ball. When Ray shoots the ball well, the Celtics are virtually unbeatable. On defense Ray needs to keep a body on field and use his experience to turn the rookie inside out.

Advantage goes to Ray Allen

The Benches

The Knicks really do not have a legit 6th man off the bench. Tony Douglas is probably their best bench player but Douglas is no PG and while he can hurt you with unexpected and outrageous shots from the perimeter, he is still only a .410% shooter. Other players include Jared Jeffries, Shawne Williams our old friend bill Walker, Sheldon (his wife is better than he is) Williams, Anthony Carter and Roger Mason.

Nothing there at all to be concerned about.

The Celtics will counter with Davis, Green, West, Kristic, maybe one of the Oneals and a situation player like Wafer, Arroyo Murphy or Sasha. The Celtics will take a 13 man playoff roster to war and I suspect that Bradley will not be active. Not sure who the other guy might be but I am hoping that Von Wafer is on the roster.

Advantage Celtics bench

Coaching

Advantage Doc Rivers because his team will play defense.

Series prediction Celtics sweep series 4-0. I obviously do not have a lot of confidence that the Knicks can win a game. They are already over their heads and their fans have expectations that could be realistic in a few years but not this year.

More to come...just trying to get the juices flowing. Next up.. A Contrast In Styles. I am assigning this topic to Sam..because he perhaps understands this better than anyone that I know....

dboss

[RosalieTCeltics]

All the unrest in Celtic nation is finally going to be put to rest. The boys will come to play, they have something to prove to the basketball world. They are not a bunch of old men who are trying to glide by these early round teams. They have to prove that they can play and BEAT any and all those teams in their way

The NBA is dying to crown LeBron, Wade, et al, or Rose and his gang of fits,
but the Celtics, Lakers and stand in their way. Let's show them what we are
really made of!

The last couple of games, Washington and NY, have proven to me that there s a second unit out there just dying to play and win. Here's to hoping that they can bring on the most exciting moment in their careers. The Celtics desere this opportunity to clean the slate and show the world how great they really are~

GO CELTICS-THEY WIN IN FIVE, AT THE MOST!

[bobheckler]

Courtesy of Celticshub.com

The 350 Pound X Factor

April 14th, 2011 by Ryan DeGama

A few days ago, John Schuhmann of NBA.com’s Stats Cube (link to his complete article below) had a superb piece quantifying Shaquille O’Neal’s impact on the Boston Celtics. The entire thing is worth a read but I’m going to excerpt a couple of key charts here as they offer tangible support for Danny Ainge’s thinking on Boston’s roster construction. Schuhmann pulled the top 10 five-man units in the NBA this season (the data is just a few days out of date). Here’s how it shakes down:


http://celticshub.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Top-Five-Man-Units.jpg

The Celtics are nothing less than spectacular with Shaq at the center spot. With Caron Butler on ice, Boston’s preferred starting five is the best unit in the entire league and by a wide margin over the Lakers’ best unit. That’s intuitive, based on the Celtics’ red hot first three months of the season.

Curiously, they’re almost as good with Glen Davis at the center spot. Second best in the entire league good. That feels counter-intuitive, probably because we’ve obsessed over Davis’ limitations defending big men and proclivity for bricking jumpshots all season. Whereas we’ve had comparatively less time to talk about Shaq’s on-court deficiencies.

It’s also surprising because Davis has played long minutes all season, including many games when the big four have played poorly. Almost all of Shaq’s minutes came when the big four were at their peak. And yet – both units are as elite as units get.

That’s where Schuhmann’s second chart really illuminates things. Have a look:


Over the last two months, as the Celtics have been stinking it up on the court, Ainge has repositioned the debate from the after-effects of the Kendrick Perkins trade to the play of the big four, in terms of accountability for failure. The numbers suggest he’s right, that no matter which big man you play with the big four, Boston will be championship contenders. And of course, that without the big four firing on all cylinders, it doesn’t matter who you put in the middle, because there’s not going to be a championship parade in June.

Of course, there’s a huge difference between the 19.1 efficiency differential of the Shaq unit and the 9.5 efficiency differential of the Jeff Green unit. And specific matchups aside (like Miami going small), it’d be surprising to see Green closing out fourth quarters, if Davis is available.

Other scattered thoughts:

•Boston, Los Angeles and San Antonio have two groups each in the top ten. Miami one. Chicago none. That’s about the right read on championship hopes, unless you think the Bulls are ready this year. I think they might be a year, and a shooting guard, away.
•Could Indiana cause the Bulls a little more trouble than we expect in the first round?
•The Rondo-Allen-Pierce-Green-KG lineup plays slower than any other combination. Could the lack of relative efficiency there be a mirage, and based more on the big four playing poorly with Green the last six weeks? Maybe, but those defensive numbers are still problematic.
•If Shaq isn’t able to come back, Krstic/O’Neal are the men in the middle after Davis. And those lineups compare poorly to the other title contenders. Shaq’s absence would then push the burden even more heavily to the other starters than it is now.
Of course, not all numbers are created equal. The figures above aggregate performance against all sorts of teams. And Boston isn’t going to be playing all sorts of teams. They will play — at most — four.

The playoffs are about matchups.

Get ready to hear that little cliche about a hundred times a day for the next two months. But it’s true. And Shaq’s presence in the middle gives the Celtics advantages in terms of post offense and defense, physicality and initimidation that their other options simply don’t. He also creates matchup problems for everyone from New York through L.A. or San Antonio. He forces them to adjust to him. And few teams have an effective answer for Boston’s 350 pound X factor.

Link to Schulman's article:

http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2011/04/09/statscube-playing-the-shaq-card/


bob

.

[tjmakz]

bob,

This is some interesting information but I think it means very little going into the playoffs.
All of the numbers that Shaq was involved in were from early in the season when Rondo was playing incredible basketball and when Pierce, KG and Ray were all shooting career high FG percentages. I don't think the big 4 played that way because Shaq was on the floor. He played pretty well, but Shaq's numbers as they are listed wih a group would be much lower with Rondo not playing at the same level anymore and the FG% of PP/KG/RA coming back to their normal career averages.
I might be wrong but I think Boston will be a worse team with Shaq on the floor. His lack of mobility and his defensive deficiencies could cancel out any benefit they get on the offensive end. JON looks to be in better shape then before his injury but Shaq seems to be somewhat significantly bigger then when the season started.
Shaq could be a benefit if Boston has foul trouble or for certain matchups. A JON/Krstic/BBD/KG center by committee can absolutely work for Boston this year. They don't need the Big Achilles.
I don't think playoffs are about matchups. I think they are more about talent and how effectively you play in your teams system and as a unit.
Derek Fisher will almost always be the worst pg that he plays against and Artest will get out scored by almost every small forward but LA has and can win with those deficiencies.
These lists also don't factor in how weak/strong players 6-12 are.

[jeb]

Bob heck

Man I am all for it but he dont give us much advantage at all in street clothes which is where he has spent the lions share of the damn season. Whadda dissapointment.

[bobc33]

Bob heck

Man I am all for it but he dont give us much advantage at all in street clothes which is where he has spent the lions share of the damn season. Whadda dissapointment.

Jeb,

But remember what a disappointment many of us thought Rasheed was at this time last year. Yet in some of those playoff games he came up BIG. I think Shaq can do likewise, even more perhaps.

Here's to good health!

[dboss]

Tommy was interviewed this morning on Mike and Mike. Special guest Chris Broussard asked Tommy a few questions.

He suggested that the reason why the Celtics have been playing so poorly was because of the Perk trade and that the Celtics were hurt emotionally.

Tommy response was Tommy like he said that was a bunch of baloney. He said the reason why Boston has struggled as of late was because they have added 5 new players mid season and the schedule has not allowed for enough practice time needed to develop chemistry.

Tommy also stated that the key to the Knicks series was Rajon Rondo. He also mentioned that the reason why Rondo has been up and down is because he is still battling Plantar Fasciitis.

With respect to Shaq he said that he doubts if Shaq will be able to play.

Tommy is an insider so I think that his comments should help to debunk a lot of speculative theories about what is really going on with the team.

dboss

[dboss]

I think a big questions remains regarding Shaq's importance to the Celtics being able to win a championship.

As I stated im my analysis I know Boston can beat the Knicks without Shaq.

Going against the Heat and possibly the Bulls becomes more problematic. I think we may have a better feel for how far this team can go once the Knicks series gets underway. It all comes down to JON. He has been injured most of the year so we really do not have a feel for how his presence can impact the Celtics' chances.

In the game against Washington we finally got a chance to see Jermaine play extended minutes against some long defenders and he really looked good. While I am cautiously optomistic I cannot help but remind everyone that Jermaine was a damn good center before he got injured and it seems that he never really had a chance to rehab properly. He always came back too soon and as a results he was ineffective.

If JON is in fact back then this changes the entire formula as far as Boston is concerned. There is no team in the East with a dominant center except for Orlando but even with Howard's dominance the Magic would be hard pressed to beat Boston, The same thing goes for the Bulls, and the Heat. With a healthy JON and a healthy Kristic Boston can still match up against any team in the East.

dboss

[dboss]

Who will get the final roster spot Von Wafer or Sasha Pavlovic

i can make an argment for both.

Did you know that he has played on 3 teams this year? Sasha is a solid but unspectacular player. At 6' 7" He has the size to play small forward. Although he lacks athleticism he knows how to play position defense and he is not afraid of contact. He is not a particularly accurate shooter .407% FG, .354% from behind the arc and a below average .684% from the line. He brings experience at the position.

Von is a contrast in styles as compared to Sasha. At 6' 5" Vin is a shooting guard. His percentage is not that much better then Sasha but he does have an important skill level handling the ball and getting to the rim. He is a finisher on the fast nreak and plays solid defense. I have been watching him closely. During preseason I was convinced that he was uninterested and would not make the ballclub. Now that I have seen him play I think he is a very unselfish player that is not have bad driving and dishing to open teamamtes. He is no backup for PP but can definitle help at the two spot in palce of Ray Allen.

So what to do. Well considering how our rotationn may be used effectivbely I would have to give the nod to Wafer. West has a gimpy ankle and Carlos is really not quick enough to handle pressure at the point. Not only that I think that in order for Jeff Green to get more minutes he needs to play some 3 and that would negate any minutes that Sasha would get.

At this point it is a number's game and any 2 position player should have an edge finding their way onto the lineup card.

dboss

[bobheckler]

bob,

This is some interesting information but I think it means very little going into the playoffs.
All of the numbers that Shaq was involved in were from early in the season when Rondo was playing incredible basketball and when Pierce, KG and Ray were all shooting career high FG percentages. I don't think the big 4 played that way because Shaq was on the floor. He played pretty well, but Shaq's numbers as they are listed wih a group would be much lower with Rondo not playing at the same level anymore and the FG% of PP/KG/RA coming back to their normal career averages.
I might be wrong but I think Boston will be a worse team with Shaq on the floor. His lack of mobility and his defensive deficiencies could cancel out any benefit they get on the offensive end. JON looks to be in better shape then before his injury but Shaq seems to be somewhat significantly bigger then when the season started.
Shaq could be a benefit if Boston has foul trouble or for certain matchups. A JON/Krstic/BBD/KG center by committee can absolutely work for Boston this year. They don't need the Big Achilles.
I don't think playoffs are about matchups. I think they are more about talent and how effectively you play in your teams system and as a unit.
Derek Fisher will almost always be the worst pg that he plays against and Artest will get out scored by almost every small forward but LA has and can win with those deficiencies.
These lists also don't factor in how weak/strong players 6-12 are.

TJ,

One of the reasons why Rondo was playing so well earlier in the season was because he had a viable low post option in Shaq. A lot (most?) of Shaq's points came on lobs and alley oops from Rondo. Were KG/PP/RA shooting high percentages because of Shaq? One could argue yes, ESPECIALLY in the case of Ray Allen. He, more than the others, is a catch-and-shoot shooter. If he is left open, say, because his man drops off to help out with 350# Shaq, Ray's fg% goes up. If Shaq sets a solid pick for Ray, which Krstic doesn't do, Ray's fg% goes up. If Ray's fg% goes up, that will open up the middle because you cannot leave a hot Ray Allen alone and not expect to pay.

Systems count, chemistry counts but those are all part of being able to take advantage of different matchups. For reasons we might not see nor understand, it was apparent that Shaq had good chemistry and played well with the Big 4. Those numbers just remind us of that.

bob

.

[bobheckler]

Who will get the final roster spot Von Wafer or Sasha Pavlovic

i can make an argment for both.

Did you know that he has played on 3 teams this year? Sasha is a solid but unspectacular player. At 6' 7" He has the size to play small forward. Although he lacks athleticism he knows how to play position defense and he is not afraid of contact. He is not a particularly accurate shooter .407% FG, .354% from behind the arc and a below average .684% from the line. He brings experience at the position.

Von is a contrast in styles as compared to Sasha. At 6' 5" Vin is a shooting guard. His percentage is not that much better then Sasha but he does have an important skill level handling the ball and getting to the rim. He is a finisher on the fast nreak and plays solid defense. I have been watching him closely. During preseason I was convinced that he was uninterested and would not make the ballclub. Now that I have seen him play I think he is a very unselfish player that is not have bad driving and dishing to open teamamtes. He is no backup for PP but can definitle help at the two spot in palce of Ray Allen.

So what to do. Well considering how our rotationn may be used effectivbely I would have to give the nod to Wafer. West has a gimpy ankle and Carlos is really not quick enough to handle pressure at the point. Not only that I think that in order for Jeff Green to get more minutes he needs to play some 3 and that would negate any minutes that Sasha would get.

At this point it is a number's game and any 2 position player should have an edge finding their way onto the lineup card.

dboss

dboss,

Who are you assuming makes the cut before those two?

1. Shaq (5)
2. KG (4)
3. PP (3)
4. RA (2)
5. RR (1)
6. DW (1/2)
7. JG (3/4)
8. Krstic (5)
9. Davis (4/5)
10. JON (5)

That leaves 2 active spots for 4 players; Murph, Carlos, Sasha and Wafer. We have 2 4s and a 3/4 tweener. Do we really need Troy Murphy, who hasn't excelled yet? We're a bit thin at 1, especially given West's ankle injuries, so Carlos moves up in position even though he has been underwhelming.

The NBA playoff rule, regarding playoff rosters per nba.com, is this:

Playoff roster size will be expanded from 13 to 15 players, with each team designating 12 active players and up to three inactive players prior to each game.

So, we could have Sasha active and Wafer inactive for game 1 and have it reversed for game 2. Wouldn't that be a kick in the teeth for an opposing coach? You don't know until almost game time whether you're going to have a shorter, more athletic shooter coming at you or a longer, more physical defender.

bob

.

[dboss]

How good is the Celtics defense?

Well some would argue that without Perk, the Celtics have lost their defensive edge. No one is afraid to play the Celtics now because the Boogie Man is gone.

91.1 and 97.0

Interesting numbers for Points Against. I think everyone would agreed that this difference is pretty significant. But with all the smoke flowing from the minds of fans that refuse to actually look at the facts one would assume that the PA this year was 97 per game. But as you must know that is not the case. So tell me how is it that Boston has been able to play better defense this year without perk and also with JON and Shaq for most of the year?

Someone please help me understand this.

One possible reason for this is that Boston has turned into a turtle on offense so the other team also has fewer shot attemps. But that does not appear to be the case because field goals attempted by opponents this year vs last year was 77 this year and 77.9 last year.

The truth of the matter is that Boston is simply a better defensive team this year when it comes to PA. And this without Perk and JON and Shaq for a significant number of games this year.

To listen to all the sports announcers and fans you would think that Boston has turn into the NY Knicks on defense.


dboss

[dboss]

Bob

Bradley and Sasha will be on the inactive roster. The top 13 will include Murphy and Wafer with Murphy as the 13th man inactive on a game to game basis. Wafer will slaos see some time as the 13th player.

This is just my best guess based on what I am seeing. I think that Murphy will be active because he is a big and becasue I think Doc just has to find a way to get more minutes for Jeff Green and that could be at the 3 spot.

Doc of course may have other ideas.

dboss

[Sam]

Dboss, I'm not quite sure what you wanted me to write about in terms of contrasting styles. However, in thinking about the difference between the styles of the Celtics and the Knicks, I find it interesting that I'm better able to characterize the Knicks' style than the Celtics' style. The Knicks are quite clearly in the "run-and-gun and heave ho" mode, with Amare and Marshmellow free to free lance whenever they're in the mood.

Right now, I think the Celtics are trying to regain their inside-out and pick-and-roll half-court offenses as well as their opportunistic up-tempo style. For years (going back well before the Garnett and Allen trades),this team has always been in danger of back-sliding into free-lance mode whenever they get into trouble, and there has been a lot of that lately.

That's why the Celts' ratio of assists to made field goals has really slipped against good defenses. 55% in the last Heat game, 50% in the last Bulls game—both with Rondo playing. And 40%, even in a win against the Knicks without Rondo playing.

What I have liked in the past two games, featuring the bench, is the number of field goal attempts. 84 against the Wiz, but with only 38% FG accuracy; then 85 against the Knicks, with a 57% shooting percentage.

In terms of style, these last two games were a classic tutorial in the difference between fast-breaking and pushing the ball up. The Celtics only had 9 fast break points against the Wiz and two (yes, two) against the Knicks. But West, Arroyo and Bradley kept pushing the ball relentlessly into the forecourt, not so much scoring on the break as catching the half court defense before it was set. I actually thought Bradley might have bribed a couple of Knicks because driving lanes were so open to him. Can you imagine what would happen if those lanes were open to Rondo?

The lesson? Push the ball incessantly, Rajon. And, if your feet can't handle the stress, pass the baton to Delonte or even Arroyo. Doc please take note.

Another reason why it's difficult to contrast the styles of the Celtics and Knicks is because I suspect we're going to see something from the refreshed first team that has not been present in the recent past. Will the promise inherent in pushing the ball become a reality when the playoffs start? At least I hope Doc has played the film and showed how vulnerable the Knicks are to a constant push of the ball.

Pushing the ball can be an antidote to a host of offensive woes—Ray's inability to get open, all the big guys' difficulties in working the pick-and-roll, Paul Pierce's inability to get off to great starts (which usually signal a big game from him), Rondo's inability to drive and dish reliably, etc.

Yes, I've been one of the people who has bemoaned the lack of solid and lasting picks, and I still feel that way. But, if that failing doesn't magically disappear, pushing the ball can help offset the problems it causes.

On the defensive end, I have trouble contrasting the Celts' and Knicks' styles mainly because I'm not convinced the Knicks have a defensive style. As for the Celts, I'm reasonably satisfied with their help defense from the foul line out, which should be a big help against the three-point threats posed by the Knicks. Even the new guys have become pretty good at hedging.

Interior defense is another matter. Doc mentioned that the coaches were going to install the defense against the Knicks two days ago. Perhaps it will include some magic element that will prompt the Celts to lay some wood on opposing penetration and will otherwise disrupt the layup drill some opponents have enjoyed as of late.

At least this little exercise, for whatever it's worth, has crystallized my own keys to the Knick series. Offensively, the constant push of the ball. Defensively, the magic deterrent to opponents' inside game.

If allowed a second key at each end, I'd be looking at the Celtics' inside-out game (which automatically entails watching for good picks) on offense and improved timing in jumping out at corner threes on defense.

Dboss, I await your grade on this term paper.

Go Celtics!

Sam

[RosalieTCeltics]

This is all very interesting, all of us playing "trainer-doctor-coach", but not one of us really knows the answer to any of the above questions. I love Tommy, he is a Celtic legend, however, he has been wrong several times this year when it came down to the players. I put no substance in his comments, even though I still like to hear him talk!!

This team is going to respond, I have no doubt about it. I will give them one bad game, that's it. There is too much pride on that floor. Paul, Ray, Kg, they
won't let the Celtics fall to the Knicks. I will certainly make no predictions about the outcome of the finals, except to say that my heart and soul is with the Celtics.

As far as the starting 12, I believe it will be:

KG
RONDO
PAUL
RAY
JO
DAVIS
DWEST
KRSTIC
JGREEN
SHAQ
ARROYO
MURPHY

THE LAST TWO WILL CHANGE IN ACCORDANCE WITH WHO THEY ARE PLAYING AND HOW THEY ARE PLAYING. WHO KNOWS JUST HOW SUCCESSFUL DWEST WILL BE COMING BACK FROM THAT ANKLE INJURY, THEY NEED ANOTHER GUARD ON THE BENCH JUST IN CASE

[Outside]

Whether or not you agree with John Schuhmann's interpretation of Shaq's impact, Shaq makes the Celtics better, no doubt about it. I just don't have any confidence that he'll contribute anything during these playoffs. Leading up to his appearance a couple of weeks ago, they said things like, if this were the playoffs, he'd be playing, then there was talk after his latest setback that it wasn't as bad as it looked and he'd be back soon. But it's like dying by a thousand cuts to keep putting him a few games away. Do everyone a favor and just say he may be done for the season and if he comes back, that's a bonus, because that's the most likely scenario. Other than the fact Shaq actually played five minutes, this feels a whole lot like how they handled KG's injury in 2009, dragging it out with talk of a return by the playoffs, in a couple weeks, whatever. The Celtics aren't required to give anyone an honest assessment of the situation, but I'm not required to believe any of their pronouncements either. So until he actually starts playing and doesn't get carted off in a wheelchair, I'm considering him done.

Which is fine. Because when I've talked optimistically about the Celtics' playoff potential recently, it was based on the assumption that Shaq was out. JON coming back helps a lot. Between him, Krstic, and Davis, they can cover the center duties. Plus -- and I'd like to see this -- they can go small with KG, Green, and Pierce, which is an option that Doc has said he likes having in his back pocket.

The Celtics' playoff chances depend on the new parts meshing, the old parts playing like they used to, and everyone staying as healthy as possible. The last two on the bench will only matter if someone gets hurt.

Thank goodness they actually start playing the games soon.

Outside

[NYCelt]

bob,

This is some interesting information but I think it means very little going into the playoffs.
All of the numbers that Shaq was involved in were from early in the season when Rondo was playing incredible basketball and when Pierce, KG and Ray were all shooting career high FG percentages. I don't think the big 4 played that way because Shaq was on the floor. He played pretty well, but Shaq's numbers as they are listed wih a group would be much lower with Rondo not playing at the same level anymore and the FG% of PP/KG/RA coming back to their normal career averages.
I might be wrong but I think Boston will be a worse team with Shaq on the floor. His lack of mobility and his defensive deficiencies could cancel out any benefit they get on the offensive end. JON looks to be in better shape then before his injury but Shaq seems to be somewhat significantly bigger then when the season started.
Shaq could be a benefit if Boston has foul trouble or for certain matchups. A JON/Krstic/BBD/KG center by committee can absolutely work for Boston this year. They don't need the Big Achilles.
I don't think playoffs are about matchups. I think they are more about talent and how effectively you play in your teams system and as a unit.
Derek Fisher will almost always be the worst pg that he plays against and Artest will get out scored by almost every small forward but LA has and can win with those deficiencies.
These lists also don't factor in how weak/strong players 6-12 are.

Hmmm...

Time for me to agree with one of our esteemed resident Laker fans again.

Call it a gut feeling or whatever you want. I don't think we'll see much of Shaq at all. I also think that's OK. We don't need him. His liabilities outweigh his possible plusses. Shaq came through when we needed a center in the first half of the season but against NY/Miami/Chicago I would personally prefer JO/Krstic/Davis. Shaq is too big a defensive liability to risk against any of those three. He's too slow.

No, I don't think Shaq is limping through that door, and that's just as well.

No disrespect Shaq. You were entertaining and even useful. Now it's time to take a seat and maybe even collect a ring.

[steve3344]

Yahoo Sports basketball analysts' predictions:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=AlfPnKr7wbT_Og2GH5hCm3E5nYcB?slug=ys-nba_playoff_predictions_2011_041511

Of the six polled here, four picked LA to win, one picked Miami and one picked the Bulls. No picks for Boston for the title, although two picked the Celtics to get to the Finals and to lose to the Lakers in 7. All six picked Boston to beat the Knicks, though none in less than 6 games. Interestingly, all six picked the West Finals the exact same way: Lakers over Oklahoma City in 7.

[dboss]

Sam

Lol, P/F....you get a P

Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this. It certainly would be beneficial for the Celtics to attack quicker. And if they can do it without being dragged into a run and gun style they could have their cake and eat it too.

Dboss

[dboss]

Outside

I am agree with you about Shaq. If he plays fine. If not the Celtics still can be beat any team out there (with a Jon/Kristic/davis combo at center)

Dboss

[sinus007]

Hi,
IMO, Celtics have only one X-factor - JG. Not Shaq since I doubt he's going to play. Not RR - he will show up. JG has to show up, but more importantly Doc has to correctly figure out his roles and JG has to buy into it 100%, a la BBD.
As for who's going to be 11th-13th men, sorry but it's irrelevant. Doc will use 9 maybe 10-men rotation. The rest will come only at the end of blowup games which doesn't matter by definition.

AK

[bobheckler]

Here's Hoopworld.com opinion of the Celtics-Knicks series:

http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=19435


For fans in New York, it has been a long, long time since they had a reason to get excited about their hometown team, as the Knickerbockers haven't won a single playoff game in a decade. Yet the city is abuzz right now, as the franchise has finally risen from the ashes of the Isiah era. After 10 years spent on the outside of the playoffs looking in, simply qualifying for the postseason generates genuine excitement and optimism in NYC.

200 miles north, in New England, the atmosphere is completely different. The mood is far more somber (and it's not just because the Red Sox have the worst record in baseball). Since the day the Big 3 arrived in Boston, landing near Plymouth Rock back in summer of 2007, the Celtics immediately established themselves as one of the NBA's truly elite teams. And they haven't budged. They won a 'chip in 2008, and advanced all the way to the Game 7 of the Finals last season. Heading into the 2010-2011 campaign as the reigning Easter Conference champs, they were viewed as one of the league's few legit contenders for the crown. And after storming out of the gates by winning 23 of their first 27 games, then amassing a 41-14 record by the time the All-Star break rolled around, it appeared they were well on their way. However, the Celtics have recently regressed and their momentum has come to a screeching halt. Many have attributed the C's current "slump" to the deadline-day deal in which Danny Ainge traded away Kendrick Perkins. Perkins was a beloved teammate and defensive stalwart, one of the premier post defenders in the sport. Whatever the reason, Boston hasn't been the same team this Spring.

While the younger Knicks, fresh off a recent seven-game winning streak, appear to be sprinting towards the postseason, the C's re limping into mid-April, both literally and figuratively. However, we have learned not to read too much into these perceived red flags. Just last year, the C's lost seven of their final 10 regular season games. Moreover, Boston's first-round opponent was the Miami HEAT, who were scorching hot heading into the 2010 postseason. The HEAT were 12-1 in their final 13 games of the regular season. Yet, Boston spanked Miami in five quick games, and that was just the beginning. The moral of this short story is a sobering reminder to excited Knicks fans: Don't read too much into the Celtics slump or the Knicks recent surge.

This Celtics team is intent on keeping their window of opportunity propped open for another run deep into June, and capping it off with a parade and an 18th banner for Beantown.; while the Knicks and the rest of the East is harboring hopes that one of these years Boston won't be able to simply flip the switch and seamlessly ease back into domination mode.

Point Guard: Chauncey Billups vs. Rajon Rondo
The more and more I think about it, the more convinced I am that point guard play is going to be absolutely crucial in deciding the winner of this series.

Rondo is the engine that powers the Celtics offense. When he is blanketed and becomes disengaged, the Boston offense tends to sputter and stall out. As I detailed in a piece posted recently on NewYorkTimes.com, Rondo has been in a funk for the better part of two months now. Many assume it is directly related to Perkins (purportedly Rajon's best friend on the team) being shipped out of town. Whatever the cause might be, the Knicks need to make sure Rondo doesn't bust out in a big way over the next two weeks.

When Rondo is aggressive and effective offensively, the Celtics seem to soar. On the season, Boston is 36-6 (.857 winning percentage) in games which Rondo dishes out at least 10 dimes. They are just 11-15 (.423%) when he records nine assists or fewer. During the Celtics playoff run last season, Rondo dished out double-digit assist in 10 games; Boston was 8-2 in those contests. And Rondo can be downright dominant when he brings his 'A-game.' In the Knicks second road game this season, they travelled to Boston. Rondo powered the C's to four-point victory; exploding for 10 points, 10 rebounds, and 24! assists (joining Isiah Thomas as only the second player in NBA history to ever tally 24 assists in a triple-double.)

Last year, arguably the most important game the C's played during the first three rounds of the postseason was Game 4 against the Cavs. Boston trailed 2-1 in the series (the only time they trailed during the first three rounds), and if they had lost that game, they'd be down 3-1 to LeBron and company, heading back to Cleveland for Game 5. So what did Rondo do? He put the C's on his back and simply took over the game, finishing with 29 points, 13 assists, and 18 boards.

Knick defenders – and this responsibility will fall primarily on Chauncey Billups, Toney Douglas and even Jared Jeffries - will be tasked with keeping Rondo out of the paint. If he is able to penetrate into the heart of the defense, Rondo will pick the Knicks apart. The idea is to force Rondo to settle for jumpers, which tends to suck life out of Boston when they clang off the iron.

On the Knicks side of the ledger, Chauncey Billups, while not as crucial to the Knicks success, is undoubtedly an X-Factor in this series. Knicks fans can expect solid scoring from both Melo and Stoudemire, but if Billups can consistently help shoulder the load, he could be a difference-maker. Fortunately for New York, Billups is one of the most playoff-proven performers in the NBA. Not only does he have an NBA Finals MVP trophy on his mantelpiece, Chauncey has advanced to at least the Conference Finals in seven of the past eight seasons.

This is a tough matchup to call, as both PG's have the potential to take over games. Yet, predicting which Rondo shows up in this series is difficult. I'll give the edge to the Celtics, as Rondo, if he brings it, is a nightmare matchup for any opposing PG

Advantage: Celtics

Shooting Guard: Landry Fields vs. Ray Allen
Far less analysis necessary here, as the Celtics have the clear upper hand. Ray Allen is one of the best shooters the league has ever seen, and has hit more three-pointers than any player that ever set foot on an NBA floor. Landry Fields on the other hand, is just 82 games removed from a losing season in the Pac-10 at Stanford. The Knicks just have to hope that Fields can make life difficult for Allen, and keep a hand in his face as Ray-Ray peels off screens. Any offense the rookie provides would be a bonus.

Advantage: Celtics

Small Forward: Carmelo Anthony vs. Paul Pierce
Melo and The Truth squaring off under the bright lights of Broadway – as an NBA fan, you can't ask for much more than this. Pierce has been a beast during this recent three-year run by the Celtics. He has hit countless big shots in big spots. In fact, even on a team loaded with future hall-or-famers, it is often Pierce who gets trusted with the ball in his hands when the game on the line.

However, Carmelo Anthony certainly isn't a guy that will shy away from a big moment. Although he doesn't have a NBA Finals MVP on his resume (as Pierce does), Melo has been one of the league's most clutch shooters in end-game situations since entering the league back in 2003. Per the Elias Sports Bureau, Carmelo is 19-39 (.487) in his career on shots that tie or put his team ahead in the final 10 seconds of regulation or overtime. That stands as the highest percentage for any active NBA player (minimum 20 attempts) in those situations during regular season play since 2003-04. Among all active players, Carmelo's 16 go-ahead shots (two games were later tied) are the most in the NBA since 2003-04. However, Melo has not achieved nearly the same level of success in the postseason as Pierce. Although Melo has made the playoffs every season of his career, he has only advanced past the first round once.

While Carmelo is younger and squarely in his prime, Piece is a grizzled vet that has proven he shines when the lights are their brightest. Is Melo ready to step up on stage and star on that level? We shall see…

Advantage: Even

Power Forward: Amar'e Stoudemire vs. Kevin Garnett
Another fascinating matchup… KG is the heart and soul of this Celtics squad. He demands intense effort from everybody wearing green, and although he is a bit long in the tooth, Garnet is still one of the NBA's fiercest defenders. KG is also efficient and effective offensively, punishing opponents in a variety of ways. In his three meeting against New York this season, Garnett averaged a stout 22.7 points and 11.3 rebounds.

Not to be outdone, Amar'e Stoudemire is averaging 27.3 ppg and 9.7 boards against Boston this season. Amar'e has emerged as the true leader of the Knicks since setting foot in NYC. While Garnett's impact on the Celtics franchise was truly unique and impossible to duplicate, Amar'e deserves a ton of credit for turning around a woebegone franchise. Stoudemire brought with him an incredible swagger that was immediately infectious. On the eve of his first postseason in New York, you know STAT won't be intimated by Garnett, or anyone else for that matter. Can Amar'e mesh with Melo and Billups? Can he step up defensively and help protect the basket? We'll find out soon enough.

Stoudemire is younger, stronger, healthier, etc. Still, no one is hungrier than Garnett. Even though KG has lost a bit off his fastball, you can safely assume he'll be insanely motivated, knowing that he may not have many cracks left at another title. KG is still too good, his will too strong, to say another PF has a clear advantage matched up against him…

Advantage: Even

Center: Ronny Turiaf (?) vs. Shaquille O'Neal (?)
How shallow are the Knicks at center? Sheldon Williams, who saw very limited minutes as a seldom-used reserve off the bench for Boston last season, may end up starting Game 1 for New York. How shallow and fragile are the Celtics are center nowadays? If Williams was still on the C's, there's a chance he'd start Game 1 for Boston.

As Danny Ainge has been made well aware of by now, the Celtics players, fans, and media, sure do miss Kendrick Perkins. The question going into the postseason is whether or not the remaining big men on the Celtics roster can stay healthy and contribute. Nenad Krstic, who came over in the Perkins deal, is an efficient scorer in the post, but a clear liability on defense. Jermaine O'Neal has missed the majority of the regular season dealing with a variety of aliments, but played 37 minutes Monday and claims he is ready to roll. But the most important big body on the Celtics roster belongs to Shaquille O'Neal. Shaq, even at an advanced age and a shell of his former self, can still cause problems for opponents. However, he has played in just one game (for five minutes) since February 1st. Shaq is currently nursing a strained right calf, and is listed as day-to-day. It sounds like Doc Rivers and the C's are "cautiously optimistic" that Shaq will be able to play on Sunday in Game 1.

As for New York, Coach Mike D'Antoni reveled Wednesday that he is planning on starting Ronny Turiaf in Game 1, although he freely admits he expects to utilize a 'three-headed monster' of Turiaf, Sheldon Williams, and Jared Jeffries. Williams sprained his ankle in the regular season finale, but told reporters afterwards that he was fine. Moreover, the Knicks will likely often attempt to 'go small' which means playing Amar'e at 5, in attempt to quicken the pace of play and cause match-up problems for Boston.

Still too much uncertainly regarding the health of Shaq to make a definitive decision…

Advantage: To Be Determined

Bench: Toney Douglas/ Shawne Williams/ Sheldon Williams/ Anthony Carter/ Jared Jeffries/ Bill Walker vs. Glen Davis /Jeff Green / Nenad Krstic/ Delonte West/ Jermaine O'Neal/ Carlos Arroyo

The best player in this grouping may very well be Big Baby Davis, who can be inconsistent at times, but has been a key cog for the Celtics. The wildcard is Jeff Green. Green, who was originally drafted by Boston, is the reason Ainge pulled the trigger on the Perkins deal. If the Knicks go small, as we should expect, Green, who can play either forward spot, could see extended PT as Boston tries to match up with New York's unorthodox run-and-gun lineup. And if the O'Neal boys (Shaq and Jermaine) are unable to stay healthy and on the floor, Krstic all of sudden becomes an important piece for Boston. They will need him to provide decent minutes up front.

For New York, Toney Douglas is important player off the pine. Douglas leads the NBA in three-pointers made since the All-Star break, and has been a solid weapon for D'Antoni of late. However, Douglas, who tends to run hot and cold as a shooter, most important job will be providing solid defense. As I alluded to above, expect Douglas to spend a lot of time attempting to stay in front of Rondo. Shawne Williams will spot up for his customary corner three's, which he needs to knock down (Knicks will need all the points they can get against Boston's stout defense). Bill Walker is motivated going up against his former squad.

Advantage: Boston

Coach: Mike D'Antoni vs. Doc Rivers
The knock on D'Antoni's system has always been that although it produces significant regular season success, it is not quite as effective in the postseason, when the games slows down, possessions become precious, and an emphasis is placed on defense. D'Antoni years to prove doubters wrong, but hasn't had an opportunity over the last couple of seasons. Back in the playoffs, with some star power on his side, D'Antoni is looking to pull off a major upset (and earn himself a heft contract extension in the process).

Doc Rivers has established himself as one of the premier coaches in the NBA, guiding the Celtics deep in to the playoff three seasons in a row. This year may prove to be his toughest challenge yet. Can he help get Rondo back on track? How will he handle D'Antoni's offensive attack? Fortunately for Boston, Rivers has seen it all. A prefect fit for his team, Rivers and company will look to steadily guide the C's back to the Promised Land

Advantage: Boston


Prediction: Celtics in 7
This has a chance to be an incredibly entertaining series. They say styles make fights – well, there are two distinct styles clashing in this Northeast slugfest. Mix in a healthy helping of superstar talent, two enthusiastic, rival fan bases, and the renewed intensity of postseason basketball; and you have the makings of must-see TV. I fully expect the series to last seven games, and the Celtics would have to be considered heavy favorites in a deciding game played in Boston.


FWIW, I don't expect this to go 7. Six, tops.

bob

.

[Sponsored content]