Rondo's progression

Rondo's progression:

Free throw shooting

2008-2009 - 64.2%
2009-2010 - 62.1%
2010-2011 - 56.8%
2011-2012 - 56.1%

Turnovers per game

2007-2008 - 1.9
2008-2009 - 2.6
2009-2010 - 3.0
2010-2011 - 3.4
2011-2012 - 4.0

Not trends you like to see. Especially his free-throw shooting. He is now in his sixth season. If he were ever to become a decent free-throw shooter it would have happened by now. It looks like 60% is all we can hope for and that's a problem. He's actually a horrid 39% on FT's (7 for 18) his last six games after starting the season a bit above average for him. Granted, he brings lots of other things to the table but it sure would be nice not to dread every trip to the line he makes.

Certainly hasn't improved in those areas that make him a viable go to guy in the late stages of a game. Danny has already engineered one rebuilding miracles with this club, and should this team settle in as a middle of the pack contender at best, I look for Danny to start the breakup before the trade deadline in march. The fact that he moved Perk last year leads me to believe that all will be available if he thinks he can improve the club for the future. In any event,we shall see.
Swish

Posting his turnovers without his corresponding assists is bullshit..

dboss wrote:Posting his turnovers without his corresponding assists is bullshit..

agreed


Free throw shooting fg%

2008-2009 - 64.2% 50.5%
2009-2010 - 62.1% 50.8%
2010-2011 - 56.8% 47.5%
2011-2012 - 56.1% 52.3%

Turnovers per game assists

2007-2008 - 1.9 5.1
2008-2009 - 2.6 8.2
2009-2010 - 3.0 9.8
2010-2011 - 3.4 11.2
2011-2012 - 4.0 10.5

while not excited to see the ft% or amount of t/o's i'll live with those over the increases he's made as a shooter since his rookie year and can deal with 4 turnovers if he's giving 10 or 11 assists a night.. toss in 1.8 steals and.. yeah i'd put him in the keeper colum

Matty wrote:

dboss wrote:Posting his turnovers without his corresponding assists is bullshit..

agreed


Free throw shooting fg%

2008-2009 - 64.2% 50.5%
2009-2010 - 62.1% 50.8%
2010-2011 - 56.8% 47.5%
2011-2012 - 56.1% 52.3%

Turnovers per game assists

2007-2008 - 1.9 5.1
2008-2009 - 2.6 8.2
2009-2010 - 3.0 9.8
2010-2011 - 3.4 11.2
2011-2012 - 4.0 10.5

while not excited to see the ft% or amount of t/o's i'll live with those over the increases he's made as a shooter since his rookie year and can deal with 4 turnovers if he's giving 10 or 11 assists a night.. toss in 1.8 steals and.. yeah i'd put him in the keeper colum

Assist to TO ratio:

2008-2009 - 3.15
2009-2010 - 3.27
2010-2011 - 3.29
2011-2012 - 2.63

This year is still only 8 games old so Rondo has the remaining games to approach the ratio he had the previous years.

As far as his FT shooting, I watched the OT of the women's UCONN/Notre Dame game and three straight women went to the line who were shooting 79%, 81% and 81% on the season. Really surprised it's such a problem for Rondo. Maybe he didn't shoot a whole lot of them growing up. And it's obvious he didn't shoot a lot of jumpers either. Or maybe good shooting is just not in his DNA.

Whats the big deal about assist numbers? Why does it matter who makes the pass that leads to a basket?
Swish

swish wrote:Whats the big deal about assist numbers? Why does it matter who makes the pass that leads to a basket?
Swish

It doesn't matter who does it. On every team it just matters that SOMEONE does it. And most players are either woefully inept in that department or just average. The rare ones like Rondo, CP, Steve Nash, Deron Williams are understandably prized for doing it more consistently than their peers. Which is nothing that everyone on here doesn't already know.

steve
And how does a player having a high assist average factor into a teams won and loss record?
Swish

swish wrote:steve
And how does a player having a high assist average factor into a teams won and loss record?
Swish

Basketball is a team game. And through the years the teams with the best won loss records are also invariably among the top teams in assists. This is not rocket science. ONE player having a high assist average doesn't necessarily guarantee that team having a great record, but having a number of gifted passers on it does. C'mon, Swish, we all know this.

Steve,

I think Swish is leading up to a point.

Regards

NYCelt

Your right NYCelt. A couple years ago I did some researching on assist per game averages for the league champ. Based on the seasons 1990-91 through 2010-11(21 years) I came up with the following results.
The champs team assist leader ranking in the league according to Basketball-Reference's top 20 were as follows.

8th-- 1 time, 9th--1 time, 11th--1 time, 13th--1 time, 15th--2 times, 19th--1 time, 20th--1 time, 21st-- or worse --12 times.(only the top 20 were ranked).

On the other hand the following players in those 21 years led the league in assist per game but failed to win a championship that year.
Stockton-6 times, Nash-5 times, Paul- 2 times, Miller- 1 time, Strictland- 1 time, Jackson- 1 time.

Kidd-5 times with 1 Ring but that came last year when he ranked 8th in the league.

I'm not claiming that having a high assist average is a bad thing but rather, that like any other Stat. line number its more of a "Feel Good" thing for the hometown fan. There is however, a Stat. that sort of averages out a teams overall Stat. record performances and points out the better teams.
I'm refering to a teams point diffential- that is the difference between a teams points scored and points allowed.
For the past 21 years the Champ has had plus point differential that has averaged out to a top 3 ranking out of a average of 29 teams.

In any event its some thing to kick around what with the Celtic idle until Wednesday.
Swish

Swish

I am curious as to those stats listed. I would think that in most cases an assisted basket is an easier one to score than an unassisted one. And IF (big if) that is the case would a team that has more assists shoot a bit of a higher % than one that doesn't? Just wonder if this theory could actually be supported by "stats". I suppose I could look it up but that will have to be done later.

I know one stat for sure, that during the C's string of championships in the Russell era they NEVER had a league scoring leader!

beat

OK just checked 1 year 2008, seems Phoenix led the league in assists that season and also led in FG %. Also Utah was second in assists and second in FG% BUT on the other end Sacramento was next to last in assists but 8th in FG% Knicks were last in assists and 4th from last in FG% so it might appear the overall theory might still hold some water. Again that is just one year.

beat
Since you brought up the 07-08 season I thought I would throw out some numbers involving assist for that season
Celtics-- point differential-- 9.31
Lakers-- " -- 7.34
Jazz -- " --6.78
Pistons-- " --6.67
Hornets-- " --5.46
Suns-- " -- 5.14
Spurs-- " --5.10

Player assist ranking
Celts- Rondo- no rank- 5.1 per game-Team assisted on 61% of made shots
Lakers- Bryant- 19th. 5.4 per game---Team assisted on 61% of made shots
Jazz- Williams-3rd. 10.5 " " 66% "
Pistons-Billups-12th. 6.8 " " 61% "
Hornets-Paul-1st. 11.6 " " 56% "
Suns- Nash-2nd. 11.1 " " 64.5% "
Spurs- Parker-15th. 6.0 " " 58.5% "

Percentage of team assist accounted for by assist leader for each team.
Celts- 8.3
Lakers-8.8
Jazz-15.9%
Pistons-11.1%
Hornets-20.6%
Suns-17.2%
Spurs-10.3

Celts beat the Lakers in the finals.

For whatever its worth
Swish

swish wrote:beat
Since you brought up the 07-08 season I thought I would throw out some numbers involving assist for that season
Celtics-- point differential-- 9.31
Lakers-- " -- 7.34
Jazz -- " --6.78
Pistons-- " --6.67
Hornets-- " --5.46
Suns-- " -- 5.14
Spurs-- " --5.10

Player assist ranking
Celts- Rondo- no rank- 5.1 per game-Team assisted on 61% of made shots
Lakers- Bryant- 19th. 5.4 per game---Team assisted on 61% of made shots
Jazz- Williams-3rd. 10.5 " " 66% "
Pistons-Billups-12th. 6.8 " " 61% "
Hornets-Paul-1st. 11.6 " " 56% "
Suns- Nash-2nd. 11.1 " " 64.5% "
Spurs- Parker-15th. 6.0 " " 58.5% "

Percentage of team assist accounted for by assist leader for each team.
Celts- 8.3
Lakers-8.8
Jazz-15.9%
Pistons-11.1%
Hornets-20.6%
Suns-17.2%
Spurs-10.3

Celts beat the Lakers in the finals.

For whatever its worth
Swish

Numbers for some reason or other got bunched together. Those percentage numbers ranging in the 50's and 60's belomg under the team assist heading.

swish

Point differential is a stat that one hardly ever runs across. Just to make sure I got this right, you're saying that every year for the past 21 years the eventual champion finished in the top 3 in plus point differential. Assuming that's for the season, does the point differential of each team have any predictive capacity other than that one?

rick
Acually its the average finish for those 21 games. Here are the actual finishes.

10th- once
6th-4 times
5th- once
4th- once
3rd- 3 times
2nd- once
1st- 10 times
I havn't researched its predictive value, but the greater the spread vs the opposition, the more likely it would be a factor. Its quite consistent with a teams won-lost record. Like I said earlier on this subject, that hometown fans take great joy in their players individual achievements, and well they should. But its how the team does collectively on the various stat line categories that matters the most. Those low team stat numbers are the numbers that result in pointing out the best team point differentials.
Swish

swish,

Not that it matters at all but dallas finished 8th in point differential last year.
I didn't see an 8th in your breakdown.
Your point is well made that the point differential is generally a good way of determining very good, possibly championship teams.

tj

Good catch tj. I copied from my notes and mistakingly credited Dallas with a 6 when it should have been an 8. At my age I need someone to verify all my data. Thanks again.
Swish