ESPN's Over/Under on Kris Joseph

Well, I haven't been successful generating any interest in any of the previous over/unders, but maybe this one's the charm.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4697201/overunder-kris-joseph


Oh sure, it's Labor Day and a dreadfully quiet time for the NBA season, but colleague Greg Payne and I are giving you a little holiday reading as our Over/Under series rolls into Week 2. We're setting potential benchmarks for Celtics players and predicting if they'll reach them. Up next: Rookie Kris Joseph, who faces the late-second-round pick's typical uphill battle for playing time, which adds a degree of difficulty to projecting his core stats.

Games played: 41

* Forsberg: Under seems the safe bet, but don't rule out the over. If we use E'Twaun Moore as our guide, last year's 55th overall pick played 38 of 66 games, so it's not unreasonable to think Joseph could appear in half of the 2012-13 contests. The question is whether the Celtics will need him that much. Paul Pierce and Jeff Green will eat up most of the minutes at the 3, but an injury could always open a door for Joseph.

* Payne: Under. Joseph's spot on the final roster isn't even guaranteed yet, and, similar to Fab Melo, it's more likely he'll spend the majority of his time in Maine playing for the D-League Red Claws. At 6-foot-7, Joseph can really only help the Celtics at the small forward spot (he could play the two, but the C's are already loaded there), and with Paul Pierce and Jeff Green taking all of the minutes there, the Syracuse rookie should be the odd man out.

Points per game: 2.9

* Forsberg: Under. Yes, he was Syracuse's leading scorer last season, but we don't expect him to be the type that guns away even if he only gets small doses of playing time at the end of lopsided games. It's his all-around abilities that will earn him a spot on the roster and it might be his defensive development that will hold the key to being on the floor. The scoring will come through the flow of the game, but don't expect much early on.

* Payne: Under. If Joseph does manage to find some court time, he won't be relied upon for much, if any, offensive output. Even though the rookie led Syracuse in scoring last season, we don't yet know how his offensive talents will translate to the NBA. Joseph has a good enough jump shot, and is athletic enough to score in transition, but none of that will matter if he can't consistently find floor time.

FG percentage: 42

* Forsberg: Over. Joseph shot 42.1 percent in his senior season at Syracuse (and 44.9 percent for his four-year career). With enough shots this is easily an over situation, but the question is whether he'll get enough shots to make up for any rookie shooting struggles out of the gates. The guess here is that Joseph will pick his spots (and shots) well.

* Payne: Under. This one could go either way (all depending on the amount of floor time Joseph sees). If Joseph does play, it'll probably be in garbage time, and if he's the type to chuck the ball up every time he touches it, his field goal percentage will dip accordingly. But, if he plays a smarter brand of ball, picks his spots, and plays to his strengths on the offensive end (excelling in transition, for example), he could shoot a solid percentage.


bob


.

Hi,
Kris Joseph is one of those plaers on the roster.
I'm pretty sure that he'll make it. I like him from what
I saw in Summer League. And I'd want him to succeed. OTOH if he
plays a lot it'd mean that either PP or JG is injured - very, very bad.
The other possibility is that KJ pans out as a better player and/or fit than
JG. The odds of that are very low, especially this year.
Who, I think, is a prime candidate for Maine is FM and X-mas(if he makes the roster. I think there's a possibility that DA will go with 14 players with mid-season deal for a big in mind.

AK

sinus007 wrote:Hi,
Kris Joseph is one of those plaers on the roster.
I'm pretty sure that he'll make it. I like him from what
I saw in Summer League. And I'd want him to succeed. OTOH if he
plays a lot it'd mean that either PP or JG is injured - very, very bad.
The other possibility is that KJ pans out as a better player and/or fit than
JG. The odds of that are very low, especially this year.
Who, I think, is a prime candidate for Maine is FM and X-mas(if he makes the roster. I think there's a possibility that DA will go with 14 players with mid-season deal for a big in mind.

AK

sinus,

I don't see Xmas going to Maine. He's a known, proven quantity internationally. If he doesn't make the cut he'll head overseas for the $ and just try to hook up with another NBA team next summer. Fab Melo is going to Maine, or I'll be shocked. He is just too early in the learning curve in the game of basketball for the complexity of schema that Doc's playbook entails. I don't know if that will free up a roster spot, though, since I understand that, Maine or Boston, if he has a contract with the NBA team he's included in the salary cap. Being included in the salary cap is not the same thing as consuming a roster spot, though, right gyso and/or TJ? I mean, if Wyc is ready, willing and able to eat his salary plus luxury tax while he's in Maine, we can still sign another player for the vets minimum in his place. Right?

KJ should make the team. If he has a weakness it's that he can only play 3. Xmas can play 1, 2 and possibly 3. This doesn't mean that a player that is perfect for one position is necessarily less desirable than a versatile player that is good, but not perfect, for multiple positions but it does force him to be perfect.

OTOH (as you put it), KJ is contractually locked up for, I think, 2 years. Sending him to Maine and keeping Xmas on the roster (at least for the first month or two until contract guarantee time comes) gives the coaching staff a chance to see what he can really do. If they keep KJ and try to move Xmas to Maine, I don't think he'll go for it. He's already past that. He has already run full-fledged professional teams.

bob


.

Bob,
Yes, you're correct: if a player is on the roster his salary goes into the cap, regardless where he plays - Boston or Maine.
Also I agree about X-mas - he's not bound to Maine. But, unlike KJ, he's mostly 2 where Celtics are stacked really good. That's why his chances to make the cut are lower,IMO, than KJ's in case DA decides to go with 14 players. Also I think DA is not done tweaking the roster. So, KJ and DC
might be a part of the future trade, if not directly then as backup to the traded player.

AK

Bob,

It appears that, for a while at least, the Celtics will be activating 12 players and keeping two others with the team in the temporary absence of Bradley. The Red Claws' first game will not take place until November 23.

Moreover, there's every possibility that Doc will use KG and Pierce for only portions of many practices in order to help limit the wear and tear on them. It just so happens that those two positions are played by Melo and Joseph—and possibly even by Christmas. So I expect these young guys to get the better part of two months' practice with the big team (until at least November 23), and that doesn't even take possible injuries into account.

I've been trying to put my finger on exactly what appeals to me most about Kris Joseph. Shooting? Rebounding? Defense? Transition potential? Nope, the single thing that I like best about him is that he doesn't seem to have any of the "deer in headlights" look about him that infected guys like Pruitt, Giddens and Walker. his manner suggests he won't be awed by the NBA and—unlike the other three and even Bradley when he's called on to be a ball distributor—won't freeze when he gets into the halfcourt.

Sam

sam wrote:Bob,

It appears that, for a while at least, the Celtics will be activating 12 players and keeping two others with the team in the temporary absence of Bradley. The Red Claws' first game will not take place until November 23.

Moreover, there's every possibility that Doc will use KG and Pierce for only portions of many practices in order to help limit the wear and tear on them. It just so happens that those two positions are played by Melo and Joseph—and possibly even by Christmas. So I expect these young guys to get the better part of two months' practice with the big team (until at least November 23), and that doesn't even take possible injuries into account.

I've been trying to put my finger on exactly what appeals to me most about Kris Joseph. Shooting? Rebounding? Defense? Transition potential? Nope, the single thing that I like best about him is that he doesn't seem to have any of the "deer in headlights" look about him that infected guys like Pruitt, Giddens and Walker. his manner suggests he won't be awed by the NBA and—unlike the other three and even Bradley when he's called on to be a ball distributor—won't freeze when he gets into the halfcourt.

Sam

sam,

I read an article, which I believe I posted, that quoted a former coach of Joseph's who said that he was impassive on the court. That's not the same as disengaged, it just means he doesn't show many emotions. For better or worse, the same was said about E'Tuan Moore.

What I liked about him was his motor. He ran, he hustled for offensive putbacks, he rebounded, he ran the plays and took the shots the plays gave him. In short, he was trying to be in the middle of everything. When you do that, good things happen and when good things happen the "deer in the headlights" look disappears swiftly.

bob

.

Bob,

If I'd given myself a second choice, it would have been his rebounding. Not just the number of rebounds he stands to get but the fact that he seems to regard his rebounding as a key to his success in this league.

Sam