Selected Celtics Stat Calculations: Updated Cumulative Season-to-date Games 1-25

Sam

While I appreciate all of the work - and think a number of your conclusions are spot on, I feel it is way too early in the season to make any kind of trending assessment.

For example - wouldn't the Fast Breaks points as % of total points be driven as much by the opponents style, if they get back on D well (Chicago and Miami) or have athletic players who cut off fast breaks (Milwaukee -Washington) as much as a lack of the Celtics running?

Same with Field goals attempted as a % of opponents' field goals attempted - is that number going to be inherently lower when you are playing teams who are not very gifted offensively and who rely on throwing the ball up early and often and going after it on the glass? This is exactly the game play of teams like the Wizards, Bucks and Sixers. They are not good set offense teams - so they throw up high volume of bad shots and hope they can get enough rebounds to keep them in the game.

I am not suggesting that we wont see the same trends in 20 games - and all of your early predictions may prove to be true. But it is too small of a sampling when you have played 2 teams twice in your first 7 games.

Sam

Lotta work involved. Numbers can show things but at the end of the day scoring more points than you allow is the only one that matters. And how we get to that point are where your stats come into play.

They all are related but to me getting more shots than our opponents is key. If we do that other things will naturally fall into place such as rebounding, getting a few extra shots on offensive boards and allowing less opponents rebounds on our defensive boards.

And right there with that is taking care of the ball and forcing turnovers. Perhaps when Bradley returns this will uptick a notch or two.
Just 3 extra offensive boards more than our opponent and 3 less turnovers equals 6 more chances to score and if we could do that every time out I'd like our chances.

Your sample is a bit to brief to draw many conclusions yet but as we go it will become more interesting.

And I am sure that Ms. Sam helps you crunch the numbers too !!

beat

Mrkleen,

I don't make predictions. Never! Period! I have suggested what I thought were remedial measures that might improve things, but they're not predictions The figures I have posted are what are called a series of "baseline measures," which will become more comparatively meaningful as more games are played.

After every single Celtics game, this board is filled with observations about not only that game but also trends people think they're seeing. I'm doing the same thing, with two major exceptions: (1) I'm not doing an analysis after every game but after each group of five games and (2) I'm using objective data that can be compared with ensuing data over time.

I thought I had made it clear that this was all very premature. For example, my sentence, "This is all as preliminary as it gets" was intended to convey this very thought.

Do you think Doc is waiting for a couple of dozen games to make adjustments based on what he has seen in the early games? I'm just doing the same thing with statistics.

Just as improvements in the team's performance will become more meaningful as we see greater consistency, the stats will assume greater importance over time and, as you say, when the team has faced a greater variety of competitive threats. In my commentary on measure #3, my phrase, "IF the figure stays at or around the 80% level even when the Celts play against the iron" was intended to underscore the importance of the nature of the competition.

Thanks for the comments.

Sam

Appreciate your reply Sam. Totally agree.

Beat,

I wouldn't say Mrs. Sam is helping me crunch the numbers. To the contrary, she thinks I'm (insert whatever deprecating term you wish) for going to all this trouble.

Your response is exactly the kind of reaction I had hoped for. Yes, it's early to generate long-term trends, but at least this list identifies what I believe are some pretty important stats. Every single one of them is presented within some context rather than in a vacuum. (I'm trying to practice what I preach.) And waiting until much later to begin this type of analysis would not allow us to look at the long-term trends that will be revealed by these analytical updates every five games.

I actually did not have number of field goal attempts on the list until a couple of days ago, but I agree with you about their importance so I added them

Best,

Sam

Now THIS is something compiled by someone who made a career out of interpreting statistical data!

As a Celtic fan and Sam's board member I'm thankful for the work you're putting in on this. It's no small effort.

You'll forgive me, however, Sam, for pointing out I MUCH prefer the statistical tracking effort you expended for one of your client accounts; The Harpoon Brewery.

Hey, I'm a Celtics fan; but I like a nice cold Harpoon IPA or Celtic Red to go with the game. If I have the opportunity to have a couple, it always seems like we're running a fast break and shooting a high percentage.

Therefore... edge to the time and effort going to Harpoon.

Sam thanks for the work that you put into this.

It will be interesting to see how the numbers change over time.

With so many new players in key rotation and or starter roles it will be a work in progress fir this team to gel.

Dboss

Thanks, guys. Although I obviously like to participate in almost any discussion related to basketball—many of them relating to what has been published elsewhere (and some of them which I've posted myself), I get the biggest kick out of creating something myself (a theory, an idea, a strategy, a stat, a memory, whatever) and posting it for anybody to agree or disagree with.

There's an old adage against researchers in my profession that research never really proves a theory. It's the repeated failure to disprove the theory that eventually gives one confidence that the theory is valid. That's the sort of process I'm using in this thread. Based on available information (however premature it may be), it's the best you have until a greater weight of evidence supplants it.

In that sense, Mrkleen was on the money by thinking of my hypotheses as predictions because what I was doing is setting up the first of repeated benchmarks that, when I first publish each stat, it will be the best evidence we have at that time. Every five games, I'll be updating the data to refine the trends up or down.

By the end of the season, it's very likely that the figures will change very seldom between five-game batches because the long-term trends will have stabilized. (Sort of like batting averages at the beginning of the season versus at the end of the season.) That leads to another way of stating the old adage as follows: When the updated trends bore one to tears because they never change, one may be pretty sure they have a high degree of validity.

In which case, I hope (but am not predicting) that all the indicators will bode well for a championship run.

Sam

Dboss, actually you had a major hand in producing these stats. A couple of years ago, I tried something similar, and you walked me through the appropriate Excel exercises to produce the calculations. I was most grateful because it really upgraded my Excel capability even though I discontinued the idea.

I'm not using Excel this time because it only takes 15 minutes per game to update the figures on a longhand worksheet. But I want you to know that I have nicknamed the fast break points factor "The Dboss Sanction" because I know how dear to your heart it is.

Sam

Some really interesting Stats Sam, but the glaring one to me is the fast break points. This is supposed to be a fast break team, especially the second unit, and it hasn't happened anywhere near as much as it should.

Alot of work went into this and I am sure everyone is very appreciative of this new addition to the board~

Rosalie

Rosalie,

Wow, do I agree with you! I think I used the word "scary" in connection with that stat. Looking beyond the five games I analyzed, the Celtics have gotten worse in virtually every one of the seven games so far. Yes it's not a load of games, but it's a rather frightening pattern nonetheless. And not to be overlooked is the fact that too few transition baskets + too few points in the paint almost certainly = too many jumpers.

Moreover, how does one reconcile the fact that they're doing pretty well in terms of defensive rebounding and have more speed and youth now and yet are doing so poorly in terms of transition baskets? That just puts more pressure on the team (and particularly on Rondo) to perform in the halfcourt; and that's not their greatest strength.

Sam

Rosalie,

Wow, do I agree with you! I think I used the word "scary" in connection with that stat. Looking beyond the five games I analyzed, the Celtics have gotten worse in virtually every one of the seven games so far. Yes it's not a load of games, but it's a rather frightening pattern nonetheless. And not to be overlooked is the fact that too few transition baskets + too few points in the paint almost certainly = too many jumpers.

Moreover, how does one reconcile the fact that they're doing pretty well in terms of defensive rebounding and have more speed and youth now and yet are doing so poorly in terms of transition baskets? That just puts more pressure on the team (and particularly on Rondo) to perform in the halfcourt; and that's not their greatest strength.

Sam

Looked good tonight, Barbosa made his way down there under the basket several times. Wilcox also showed the ability to run and be ahead of the ball.
Green looked good tonight too. Hopefully it is coming!!!

Rosalie

sam wrote:.

good point sam. hard to argue that one.

Thanks Sam...I like that

Dboss

Sam-Is there a reason why I am not receiving many of your posts? Lately, I get the posting but nothing is there, just your avatar and the posting name



Rosalie

Rosalie

Sam updates his post( this thread) by just putting a DOT there.
Brings it to the top of the pile so to speak

beat

Exactly right, Beat. Then, when I want to move the thread to the top again, I delete my previous "dot post" and create new one. Simply updating (editing) a post doesn't move it to the top of the list.

Sorry for any confusion, Rosalie.

Sam

I'll throw a little Marcus update in here

basketball season has been on for about 2 weeks now first game is a week from Saturday. First scrimage is next Wednesday.

We should have a very good team, lots of seniors.

Marcus is tough to get info out of on almost all fronts.... girls, sports, schoolwork, ect........ so when he does give out info it must be important.
came home after practice yesterday and the said the coach had split the team up with the 6 best/better kids and the six others, although he did not "start" he was the so called 6th man on the "better" team. Hopefully a sign he'll get some meaningful minutes. First man off the bench ??? I can live with that.

beat

Beat,

Please wish Marcus the best for me.

Sam

Sam

I will, also got a "new" lens for my camera that can take indoor shots much better. Hopefully will have a few photos to share.

Still has not thrown a baseball, he says he's heaved a basketball the length of the court with no issue, could not have done that in the spring so I guess that is a good sign.

Now to get his car back on the road....... radiator issues and antifreeze all over the garage floor.......
not cool having dad drop you off at school as a senior !!

beat

shows you how computer illiterate I am!!!!

Rosalie,

Wrong! It shows how computer-sneaky I am.

Sam

Sam,

Great stats! Thanks for putting in the effort.

The area which concerns me, and has been concerning me this year-to-date, is that our fgas seem to be down. Your stats seem to support that.

The disappearance of "uptempo" is the culprit, partially.

There's an old saying in golf that goes "100% of the putts that do not reach the hole, do not go in". It might not be true in basketball, but you really slice into your margin of error if the other guys get a lot more shots at the hole.

Whether we go back to running, or just stifle their offense better, we need to improve our fga vs their fga ratio.


bob


.

Bob,

Glad you had a great time in Sedona. I really enjoyed our time in San Francisco.

My dad always said about golf, "You have to shoot to win." And there's also the old, "Never up, never in." We all want more speed, greater tempo. As I look at the stats, I wonder how much improvement is realistic to expect. That's why I'm happy that the half-court execution seems to be on the upswing and the turnover situation seems more under control.

Sam