EXPLORING THE DYNAMICS OF THE RECENT FIVE-GAME SURGE

To all:

Any Celtics fan has to be at least cautiously optimistic based on the team's apparent turnaround during the five most recent games. I'm sure each of us has his or her opinions of what has caused it and what it means. In an effort to provide some quantitative food for thought on the subject, the following figures compare selected stats from these five "turnaround games" with the same stats from the 31 previous games.

DEFENSIVE ENERGY HAS BEEN FAR-AND-AWAY THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE TURNAROUND:

There aren't many readily available defensive stats, but one measure that can be used is what I call the "defensive energy stats" (blocks and steals combined).

After trailing opponents in combined blocks and steals for most of the season, the Celtics have had a dramatic reversal of fortune
turnaround during the most recent five games. This stat has Avery Bradley (and Courtney Lee) written all over it. And we’ve seen defensive improvement throughout the squad as the defensive energy dynamic seems to have engulfed virtually everyone.

Celtics Combined Steals/Blocks as a Percentage of Opponents’ Combined Steals/Blocks:

First 31 games of season: 96%
Five-game winning streak: 126%
Change: Plus 27 percentage points

The Celts are taking better care of the ball lately. which is an offensive indicator. But their improvement in this stat is also partly due to the turnovers they’re forcing.

Celtics Turnovers as a Percentage of Opponents’ Turnovers

First 31 games of season: 94%
Five-game winning streak: 89%
Change: Plus 5 percentage points (because the lower the percentage, the better)

THERE'S MUCH LESS "HEAD FOR THEM THAR HILLS" URGENCY AS SOON AS A CELTICS SHOT GOES UP.

One thing I particularly like is that they're even getting back pretty well in transition without completely abandoning the offensive boards. And another young stud—Jared Sullinger—is the poster boy for this turnaround. The Celts are obviously moderating Doc’s mandate that they turn tail and run back on defense as soon as a Celtics shot goes up. Sullinger uses his butt better than my high school’s cheerleaders. And other Celtics are even getting more offensive boards because Sully occupies multiple opponents much like Vince Wilfork.

Offensive Rebounds as a Percentage of Available Offensive Rebounds

First 31 games of season: 20%
Five-game winning streak: 29%
Change: Plus 9 percentage points

BETTER VOLUME BASKETBALL AND BENCH CONTRIBUTIONS HAVE BEEN KEY COMPONENTS OF THE CELTICS' SURGE.

Volume basketball. I love it! Pushing the ball more consistently, running the first option earlier in the clock, moving without the ball, spacing better, swinging the ball more crisply, getting putbacks, and protecting the ball are resulting in an increase in Celtics' field goal attempts.

Celtics Field Goals Attempted as a Percentage of Opponents’ Field Goals Attempts

First 31 games of season: 98%
Five-game winning streak: 104%
Change: Plus 6 percentage points

I’m in love with the bench nucleus of Sully, Lee, Terry, Green, and whoever might join them at any given time. Doc said, after the last game (and two players echoed it in their post-game comments): “The second unit is pretty solidified. When we practice, they’re all together.” I know I mention the word “continuity” a lot, but I may just have to mention it more often (I think three people just left the board) because I’m afraid I actually understate its importance.

Although they're not anything like floor generals, it’s looking to me as though Lee and Terry are collectively controlling the bench’s flow well enough to give Rondo plenty of rest. I understand that Terry isn’t hitting lately (and, frankly, some of that is because he’s not shooting a lot lately). Moreover, Doc or one of the players mentioned after the Houston game that Terry’s defense has picked up. Going to the floor to garner a loose ball against the Rockets was fantastic. And it was fitting that Lee got the resulting bunny because, if anyone is usually in the right spot at the right time, it’s Courtney Lee. When he gets anywhere near the basket on a fast break, it’s money. He’s a great finisher. And he’s not just a good defender, he’s a heady one. Perhaps my favorite part of last night’s game was watching Jeff Green urging the crowd to whoop it up. His emotion was exciting to witness. He’s becoming not just a placeholder for Pierce; he’s slowly becoming an impact player.

Celtics Bench Points as a Percentage of Total Celtics Points

First 31 games of season: 33%
Five-game winning streak: 38%
Change: Plus 5 percentage points

IT APPEARS THAT THE CELTICS' OFFENSE IS VERY GRADUALLY WEANING ITSELF FROM THE MID-RANGE JUMPER IN FAVOR OF MORE POINTS IN THE PAINT.

During the most recent five games, three-pointers, fast break points, and points in the paint add to 73% of the Celtics offense. I'm assuming the other 28% consists mainly of mid-range jumpers. It appears that the Celtics' offense is gradually moving away from jumpers and in the direction of points in the paint. Once again, the differences are not great but are directionally promising.

For those who may have been yearning for more fast breaks, I think we're seeing a balance between fast-breaking and pushing the ball—a balance with which the vast majority of the squad can be comfortable.

Percentage of Celtics Offense Unaccounted for by Three-pointers, Fast Break Points, Points in the Paint, and Jumpers

Most recent five games:

16% Points from the arc
13.. Points from fast breaks
43.. Points in the paint

27.. Remaining points (presumably from jumpers)

First 31 games:

18% Points from the arc
12.. Points from fast breaks
39.. Points in the paint

31.. Remaining points (presumably from jumpers)

THE RECENT SUCCESS HAS NOT BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY HEIGHTENED ASSIST FIGURES.

The downward trend in assists per made field goals has been a season-long phenomenon. During the first 15 games, the percentage averaged slightly over 66%. It gradually dipped to the 63%-64% level and now rests at 61%. Meanwhile, Rondo’s assist figures have been dipping. In years gone past, I’d have been quite worried about such a trend. But I believe this is a rather non-traditional Celtics squad. There are more players who feel comfortable creating their own shots. Terry and Lee are two great examples, and Green and Sully often juke preparatory to making moves to the hoop. So I view this trend as a case of players seeking their own comfort level when in attack mode.

Celtics Assists as a Percentage of Celtics Made Field Goals

First 31 games of season: 63%
Five-game winning streak: 61%
Change: Minus 2 percentage points

CELTICS DEFENSIVE REBOUNDING HAS SLIPPED A BIT DURING THE RECENT WINNING STREAK.

The fact that the recent surge has actually been accomplished despite some slippage in the Celtics' defensive rebounding stat (whatever the reason) underscores what the possibilities might be with another accomplished big man on board.

Celtics Defensive Rebounds as a Percentage of Available Defensive Rebounds

First 31 games of season: 74%
Five-game winning streak: 70%
Change: Minus 4 percentage points

WHAT IT ALL MEANS

One thing that all of this means is that five games are not projectable. The best they can do is to offer some clues to the direction in which the team could be going. And, on the whole, it’s a pretty good direction. I fully expect, as time passes, that at least some of these trends will be altered in one way or another. I also expect that there will continue to be challenges along the way. I can only hope each challenge is something that can be dealt with. Because this team is becoming ever-better at dealing with stuff.

For me, what keeps popping out of all these stats is the word “comfort.” Both the system and the players are adapting to the point where (1) everyone knows his role, (2) everyone is pretty comfortable in his role, (3) every role can make impact while being complementary with the other roles, and (4) the whole is beginning to look greater than sum of its parts.

These five games have really solidified my love for this team. Has this stretch made me change my mind about the need for an impact center? NO! I believe we need one. But I now believe the team is in good enough shape that such an acquisition could make them a contender rather than merely making them respectable and perhaps boding well for the future.

Has this stretch made me change my mind about the need for a backup point guard? POSSIBLY. I'd still like to have a reasonably experienced REAL PG backing up Rondo. But, while it’s not at all traditional, I’m getting a kick out of the way Lee and Terry collaborate on maintaining reasonable order when Rondo’s out of the game. And I’m enjoying the way in which their benchmates are adapting to playing either with or without Rondo.

That last comment raises another point. (Don't worry; this is the last one.) It’s so great not to have a coach who tries to make the team in his mold. Can you imaging Doc demanding, “You’re going to play the triangle whether or not you like it!” And KG piping up with, “Crap, man, I can’t even hum into a kazoo.” To the extent the various pieces are coming together, Doc has had the right prescription for helping it to happen. And, IF a trade should be forthcoming, I have confidence that Doc will yet again lead the team to the head of the chemistry class.

Go Celtics,

Sam