Perhaps This Upcoming Season Will Get An Asterisk*

They say that next year's draft is going to be impressive, supposedly impressive enough to rank up there with 2003's draft. Speculation is a dangerous tool.

And with this speculation, comes the possibility of tanking. It is a common practice with regularly sub-par teams (I can't imagine how many #1 picks the Clippers have had over the years, although, I believe they were actually just that terrible, not even capable of tanking). To me, tanking is a rather unfortunate undertaking, one that lacks any real pride. Intentionally losing games in hopes of landing an unproven draft pick doesn't sound right to me, and it shouldn't either to the franchise with the most titles in NBA history. Take a look at 2007. Boston had a terrible season and still managed to miss the top picks and a chance at Kevin Durant. This only really worked out in the end because Boston built a championship team that year despite missing the top pick in the draft.

However, I'd like to state that I don't believe Boston will tank this year. Rondo is still on the roster, and he is a core piece that the team can build around, provided Danny gets deals done without waiting for all of the good players to get signed. Jeff Green has emerged as the next in line at the 3-spot, even taking over some games and scoring at-will. Bradley and Sullinger round out the rest of the core and are both promising pieces.

One thing that bothers me is the fact that Danny is moving so slowly to hire a coach. How can he hope to land a major free agent if he hasn't hired anyone to coach the team? This team has a solid core, but is certainly not a contender without addressing the needs at PF and C with starter-caliber talent. The Bobcats are already trying to land Al Jefferson, a player the Celtics have been angling to get since this past season. There's also no telling what Josh Smith will do in regards to Atlanta, but it does appear Atlanta is willing to move on from him. Danny needs to make a play for both of these guys so this team can field a viable starting 5.

KJ

Patience young jedi.

KJ,

It's not likely that the Celtics will delve into the free agent market in any big way. They can't afford to add salary without simultaneously reducing some salary. They're more likely to consider a sign-and-trade deal, and very likely only for someone they feel can contribute for at least three years—maybe longer. If the Celtics coach is not a major name (which seems a long shot at best), I don't believe it will make much difference to an incoming player who he is. The draw will not be the coach. It will be more about factors such as the money and the opportunity to play, succeed, and add value to the next contract.

Danny may be wise to size up the evolving nature of the roster and the direction (style, system, etc.) the team will be best suited to employ and then hire the available coach who is best equipped to lead such a team.

Good advice from Mrkleen too.

Sam

Sam,

I suppose I may be jumping the gun a bit. But the threat of languishing in mediocrity certainly seems like a strong possibility if no significant moves are made. No tanking means no lottery pick, and no roster building means .400-.500 win% with no shot at a title/ 1st round exits. Teams can find themselves stuck that way for years. But basketball doesn't start for a few months so I guess we shall see what Ainge plans to do.

I just hope he doesn't shop Rondo once he comes back.

KJ

KJ,

I believe Rondo's situation is different from those of KG and Pierce. Danny's unlikely to trade Rondo for flotsam and jetsam mainly to clear space for the future. He wouldn't trade Rondo unless he could get something amazing in return. And it doesn't seem likely he could get max value for Rondo until other teams see that Rondo's fully recovered from his injury. I believe that's the single biggest reason for assurance that you can expect to see Rondo in a Celtics uniform this coming season.

Sam

KJ,

If Danny does nothing but use those 9 1st round picks over the next 5 years, that's still a playoff-roster's worth of 1st rounders. Even if only half of those players pan out, and the draft is a crap shoot, that's still 4-5 players. Personally, I don't see Danny being that patient, nosirree.

Assuming the trade with Brooklyn goes through, we will have too many players. That means that Danny cannot be done yet.

MrKleen nailed it.


bob


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I'm gathering that this year will be a wait and see type of season. Maybe they'll make moves next year.

KJ

KJ,

Just when I think this will be a "wait and see" season I read that Danny has reached out to Dwight Howard (even though his overture was reportedly rebuffed) or might consider trying to get Josh Smith or (long shot) Al Jefferson. I've decided that even Danny isn't sure what his strategy may be and, in fact, that strategy could change based on circumstances: injuries, who becomes available, a deal he can't refuse, opportunities to shed salaries, etc., etc., etc.

I can safely say that, since I started following the Celtics big-time in 1950, this has been the most bewildering offseason ever. And it has barely started.

Sam

I saw a joke on the BDC website (not the board, but in an official Celticsblog) for the new Celtics marketing slogan:

"I am a Celtic...unless Danny Ainge can get a 1st rounder in exchange".

Ouch.

Still, you can't have it both ways.  You can't fault GM Danny Ainge for being disloyal but then hamstring him when he does whatever it takes to facilitate a near-term rebuild by turning into Trader Danny.

I stand by my previous statement.  I never want to play poker with Danny Ainge.  When he thought we had a shot by managing KG's minutes and surrounding the big 3 with supporting players like Green etal, he dug in and refused to trade Pierce last year and the year before because he didn't like the offers and because he thought we had a shot.  Despite Ray Allen's complaints about always being dangled as bait, Danny never pulled the trigger and Lord Knows he's not afraid to pull the trigger when he feels good about what a trade can do for the team.

Danny is not done this off-season.  We have too many players under contract heading into camp.  Somebody will be gone somehow, somewhere.  Judging the roster now is like judging a wall mural when the artist has only applied an outline and one or two colors, or expressing an opinion about a major haircut re-styling (as opposed to a trim.  Danny is NOT trimming the roster) while the stylist is still cutting.  

For example, the Bucks really do look like they are tanking.  Suppose Danny can trade Kris Humphries' expiring contract for Pekovic?  That can't happen until after 7/10, and that's assuming there's no moratorium on trading players who have just been traded.

There's talk that Atlanta will tank if they don't get Howard (which they are not looking good with right now.  At best they are #3 of 3).  Maybe they'd take Humphries' expiring contract and Lee for a sign-and-trade for Josh Smith?  I am very ambivalent about Josh Smith as a Celtic, but there's no doubt in my mind, not an iota, that he has trade value.  Certainly, a helluva lot more than Humphries and/or Lee.  Who knows?  Maybe that's the sign-and-trade that has been rumored we have with Atlanta?  Maybe it has all been hanging fire on whether Atlanta lands D12?

It ain't over 'til it's over and we're just a few days into the free agent signing period, not even at the beginning of the Orlando Summer League play (which is the smaller and earlier one versus Lost Wages).  Camp is about 3 months away.   It takes a couple of days, maybe a week to put together a deal that shores up the roster or maybe even blows our mind.

Danny traded for KG on 7/31.  Today is only 7/3.


bob


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Bob,

Pekovic is a Minnesota free agent, not Milwaukee.
I don't see anyway short of sending Atlanta a couple of first round draft picks for them accept Humphries or Lee in a trade. It's better for them to let Josh Smith walk as a free agent then to accept bad contracts in return, unless they are significantly compensated for doing so.

tjmakz wrote:Bob,

Pekovic is a Minnesota free agent, not Milwaukee.
I don't see anyway short of sending Atlanta a couple of first round draft picks for them accept Humphries or Lee in a trade. It's better for them to let Josh Smith walk as a free agent then to accept bad contracts in return, unless they are significantly compensated for doing so.

TJ,

You may be right, but I wasn't trying to propose a specific deal so much as proposing patience.

bob


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