Celtics Aim To Develop Talent, Not Tank More

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nba/news/20130930/boston-celtics-danny-ainge-brad-stevens/#all



Celtics aim to develop talent, not tank for more



Brad Stevens and Danny Ainge of the Boston Celtics/

Danny Ainge's choice to hire Brad Stevens after Doc Rivers' departure surprised many around the NBA.
Fernando Medina/NBAE/Getty Images


WALTHAM, Mass. -- For six years the question was whether the Celtics would win the championship. Now Danny Ainge finds himself overseeing a far less promising environment. All of the big names who played for or coached the championship team of 2007-08 are now in Los Angeles or Miami or Brooklyn or (in the case of Rajon Rondo) on indefinite leave. Instead of trying to win, should they now be trying to lose?

"As I walk around town, more than anything else there are those that say, 'Hey, don't win too many games,"' said Ainge, the Celtics' president of basketball operations. "There are so many fans that want us to play for the draft."

Ainge's measured response is that they should be more careful what they wish for.

"That's harder than people recognize," said Ainge of losing as a strategy. "It's a really easy thing to conceptualize, and an easy thing to talk about and philosophize about. But it's a hard thing to live through -- for fans, for coaches, for owners, for sponsors, for our TV partners."
It was the pain of losing that forced his coach of nine years, Doc Rivers, to relocate, with great irony, to the Clippers.

"Right," said Ainge. "It's a really hard thing to do."

Without ever mentioning the name of the consensus No. 1 pick Andrew Wiggins, Ainge made it clear that he does not believe the Kansas freshman carries the value of Kevin Durant, with whom he is often compared.

"If Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was out there to change your franchise forever, or Tim Duncan was going to change your franchise for 15 years? That might be a different story," said Ainge. "I don't see that player out there."

All of the Celtics' old, experienced hope had been traded away as they opened training camp Monday with the unlikely -- but not impossible, according to Ainge -- goal of reaching the playoffs. The mood was nothing like years past. One longtime Boston journalist said it was the first time in 36 years he was covering a Celtics team that didn't include a future Hall-of-Famer. The uniforms were familiar, but many of the faces and names were not.

"I could see our team playing better than what some people think," said Ainge. "But I could also see us having some struggles because we don't really have that star. With the exception of Rondo, of course; but we don't know when he'll be back."

Rondo, recovering from ACL surgery on his right knee last February, said Monday he was unable to predict his return. When he does come back, will he be confident and comfortable enough to instantly regain his All-Star form? It would be unfair to expect so much so soon.

"There [are] just so many questions to be answered with our personnel," Ainge said. "It's sort of exciting to go into a year and not really know what to expect."

The Celtics' rookie coach Brad Stevens, a 36-year old hired away from Butler University in his native Indiana, was not at the top of Ainge's list of variables for this season of transition. "I don't think that's going to prevent us from being a good team, or that he's all of a sudden going to turn us into a great team," said Ainge of Stevens' inexperience. "His biggest thing will be how many adjustments do we make? Because he'll know our opponents and their tendencies and he'll know what we do and he'll put in the work. His question will be, 'Do we want to change our defense tonight, and can my players pick up this difference and can we make this adjustment?' Those will be the types of things. Is he outsmarting himself by making the change or keeping it really simple because the players might not be able to make that adjustment?
"I don't have any question [about] his preparation or his intelligence. But experience, sure. I think his staff will be able to help him through all that."

He wished he could have straightened out the roster for Stevens. The Celtics have five big men who deserve to play, said Ainge, but there won't be enough minutes for all of them. Shooting guard remains a mystery. There is no point guard to start in Rondo's absence. And the best Celtics players to start the season, Gerald Wallace and Jeff Green, are both small forwards.

"I've experienced that," Ainge said of his four seasons as coach of the Suns, "where you win a game, but [there]'s not as much joy as you would like it to be because there's three or four guys who are not happy with their roles. In a lot of ways you're managing corporations, because how you play them and how many minutes they play and what roles they play have a great deal of effect on their career earnings.
That's going to be a tough deal for Brad this year, the logjams at the different positions."

And yet Ainge likes this roster more than the one he inherited when Boston hired him in 2003, or the one he handed over to Rivers as new coach of the Celtics one year later. The current goal, which surely could change based on the events of this season, is to renew the strategy that led to the 2007 trades for Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett: To develop the team's current young talent and to draft well without necessarily earning a high choice in the lottery. Al Jefferson, who was the key player in the trade for Garnett, had come to the Celtics as a No. 15 pick three years earlier.

"Rondo is a player that has value in our league, and there are teams that like him; there [are] questions about his injury," said Ainge. "People like Jeff Green: He has great character, he has a decent contract for the kind of player that he can be. Jared Sullinger and Avery Bradley and Kelly Olynyk -- all these guys have value. So that's the good news. But you still need some breaks along the way. You still need to draft well and develop your players, and those players have to be wanted commodities around the league."



Rajon Rondo of the Boston Celtics.
Rajon Rondo's return from ACL surgery is one of many uncertainties the Celtics will face this season.
Jared Wickerham/Getty Images


The model for all rebuilding teams is Oklahoma City, but Ainge doesn't see how the Celtics could duplicate a plan that began around Durant as the No. 2 overall pick in 2007. "It might have been different if Greg Oden had been there and they drafted Greg Oden -- they might not be who they are today," said Ainge. The franchise endured four straight losing seasons, including a year of hell while leaving Seattle, to be followed by what Ainge called "almost a new free year" when the team was greeted in Oklahoma City by fans and sponsors who didn't care that the 2008-09 Thunder were going to lose 59 games.

"In Boston or in Phoenix or in other cities, people aren't going to pay attention," said Ainge. "And I don't think people understand. It's unrealistic to think that there's only one way to win and that's by losing to get better."

The other side of the dilemma is that the fans in Boston may be impatient after taking so much pride in the teams of Rivers, who is the league's ultimate insider. When asked about the natural comparisons between Rivers and Stevens, Ainge responded with a message of perspective.

"Listen, Doc did a great job for us and I'll always be grateful for what he's done," said Ainge. "But because we struggled in the first few years of Doc's tenure -- struggled mightily -- I think people sort of get it, and understand that it's not always the coach. Now Doc's going to a team that's going to win 65 games. They won [56] games last year with injuries; Chris Paul missed [12] games. They won 17 in a row, and [now] their team is better. It's upgraded significantly, in my opinion.

"Our team is not made for 65 wins this year, and I know that before we even play a game. I think that Brad is so unique and different, and I think people are smart enough to understand that there were a lot of people on Doc's case and on my case -- [and] they should have been questioning things that were happening early on. Ultimately, it really is a players' league, in that if you don't have really good players, you can have Jerry West and Red Auerbach and Phil Jackson all on the same coaching staff and you still might not win."

Rivers told friends over the summer that he didn't want to rebuild. Ainge signaled that he would spend this year reinforcing his view that a coach shouldn't be judged solely by the record of his team -- or that the comparative records of Rivers and Stevens shouldn't necessarily reflect poorly on the new coach in Boston.

"Through the whole thing," said Ainge of their nine years together, "Doc was a stabilizing force. He was a leader of the team through thick and thin. He was no better the year that KG showed up and we won the championship than he was the year before when we lost [18] games in a row. He was no better a coach then. He just had the opportunity. Doc's not going to be any better coach this year than he was last year when we were 41-40, but he'll win 25 more games -- at least -- this upcoming year because he's driving a faster car."

From that perspective, the worst thing Ainge could have done would have been to hire Stevens to a six-year contract and then dump all of his players of potential in exchange for draft picks that may never pan out. If the current team cannot win and there is a market for his players, it may reach the point when he is moving them. But that time had not yet come.

"Those guys are all trying to win," Ainge said of Wallace and Green and Rondo. "They don't want to go out there and play for a draft pick. Brad Stevens in his first year as coach -- he's going to give a big pep talk about coming together as a team. How do you fake that? There's not one thing fake about Brad Stevens. I think that's why he'll be able to sell it."

The practice gym was lined with the old banners and filled with new players. It was a strange opening day to launch a new unpredictable era.

"If all of a sudden Rondo's out for the year and a couple other key guys, and maybe goals change over the course of the year," said Ainge, and then he stopped the dark thoughts there. "But starting the season out," he carried on brightly, "we're starting out full blazes. And see what we can do."




bob
MY NOTE:  I agree with everything Danny said, but hearing him, so matter-of-factly, talk about how players having value in the league (translation:  trade bait) has got to have a chilling effect on players.  He's got a good eye for talent, maybe not Red but Red made some mistakes too (he drafted Michael Young with #24, Charles Bradley with #23, Norm Cook with #16 and brought in Sidney Wicks and Curtis Rowe) but Red was loyal unto death to his players.  Danny's a puppet master who'd sell his own mother based upon her value in the league.  Obviously, a double-edged sword.  I suppose, given that we all know that we are in transition and that means roster instability, it's probably the right time for have a GM like Trader Danny pulling the strings.




.

I've been salivating to read more about tanking. It's my third favorite subject, just a tad below (1) cleaning a crapper with one's favorite toothbrush and (2) any mention of Sidney Wicks and Curtis Rowe. Tank you very much.

Sam

sam wrote:I've been salivating to read more about tanking.  It's my third favorite subject, just a tad below (1) cleaning a crapper with one's favorite toothbrush and (2) any mention of Sidney Wicks and Curtis Rowe.  Tank you very much.

Sam

sam,


You have favorites among your toothbrushes?


bob


.

Trades are bound to happen. It's part of the rebuilding process, and I expect that a good chunk of those draft picks Ainge has collected will be used in trades, not just to acquire players through the draft. My guess is that relatively few players on the current roster will be here 4-5 years from now when the rebuilding process should come to fruition with a contending team.

Once they decide what their core group is and what their needs are beyond that group, that's when I expect them to do an impact trade or two that puts them into position to contend for the title. While I'm sure Ainge will be open to offers that can improve the team, I don't think there will be a flurry of trades this season. At this point, they're examining everything for its impact over the long term.

They need time to figure out what they have with Olynyk, Sullinger, Faverani, and Bradley in Stevens' system, whether Green can take that next step up that everyone hopes is possible, and whether guys like Brooks and Crawford can be positive impact players off the bench or need to be moved for guys who can be productive in that role. By and large, it will take a season or more to make an adequate judgment on all that, especially since a crucial component in that evaluation -- Rondo -- won't be with the team at first and will take time to get back to his full level of play.

So while they obviously have roster needs, and circumstances and opportunity may lead to Ainge pulling the trigger on trades, I actually don't expect big moves this season.

"Without ever mentioning the name of the consensus No. 1 pick Andrew Wiggins, Ainge made it clear that he does not believe the Kansas freshman carries the value of Kevin Durant, with whom he is often compared."
I can read DA's thoughts in this article a couple of ways, but I think his devaluing Wiggins is disingenuous. As for tanking, no GM is going to announce it as a strategy, and every one, if accused of tanking, would deny it.
I think GMs routinely tank whenever it is to the team's advantage, but coaches don't and shouldn't have that luxury. The GM deals the cards, face up, and the coach must then do his best to win.
Our Celtics may be underwhelming this year, but I can hardly wait to see what we've got, and with KG and PP gone, there will be minutes to go around. Without the usual playoff pressure, there will be chances to experiment more freely. As for Rondo, I hope he comes back slowly, methodically, set for a complete recovery late in the season.
Most of all, hurry up opening day: We are starving for some Celtics basketball!

Playing for the draft is the most asinine strategy I've ever heard of. Having the worst record doesn't guarantee you the #1 pick. That's why it's called a "lottery." Play the game to win, and if you don't play to win, then you shouldn't be in this league. Period.

I think this team will surprise a lot of people this year. Many of these guys will be playing to prove something to the world that they aren't just rolling over this year.


KJ

I agree with you, KJ. But what's most asinine is that there's such attraction to it. People certainly have the right to do discuss it, but what the heck is the appeal?

Sam

Sam,

I think people have been wanting the next Bryant or James for years and think they'll strike it rich with a #1 pick.

But little do they know that caliber of talent is extremely rare, maybe a once in a decade occurrence.


KJ

KJ,

That's probably true.  And, if that were all that the tanking discussions boiled down to, I wouldn't care.  But, frankly, I believe people are showing their naivete in tossing the word around as if real tanking can be turned on or off like an electric switch.  Except for very few instances, owners, a GM, a coach, and players would have to be complicit to varying degrees.

As for owners, they're putting our the great majority of $100 million in salaries and taxes. Are they seriously going to undermine the purpose for which that money is spent in return for a lottery position where there are obviously no guarantees of seeding? If people think Danny has little room to maneuver in trying to get a good center and/or a serviceable PG, he'd be at least equally constrained in jettisoning his better players for practically nothing in order to tank.  A coach might be in collusion with the GM, but a dismal season is a dismal season, regardless of whether a tanking motive is involved, and a coach's reputation could be eroded around the league by one dismal season.  Let's say there are 8-10 important (i.e,) rotation players on a team.  Are all 8-10 of them going to lie down magically with the wave of some Master Tanker's magic want?  Yeah, I'm sure those in a contract year would love to submit a mediocre-to-lousy season.  And, especially on a Celtics team, how likely is it that displaying an obvious effort outage would go unassailed by at least the media and the fans?  Now imagine two to four of those eventualities occurring simultaneously.  And without the ever-hungry and sensationalistic media getting a sniff from one "source" or another. That's why virtually every commentary on taking is a waste of energy.

And yes, I'm well aware of the subtle ways in which tanking can allegedly occur. IF that kins of ruse can be pulled off, it just takes a little more discerning scrutiny to identify it.

I'm seeing the root "tank" used in various word forms, from noun to adjective to verb, much like another four-letter word ending in "k." And, as far as I'm concerned, both words are usually substitutes for more cogent remarks. Obviously, everyone has the right to use any form of the word "tank" on this board and elsewhere. And I have the right to chuckle and shake my head when it happens.

Sam

I do not think they should tank as in lose games on purpose, but they also should not do anything possible to win a few more games this season.

Like lets say they could do a trade with some of the young talent + draft picks to pick up some old center with just a few years left in the league. They might win 35 instead of 30 games this season but they would be paying a huge price in future wins.

Also it could be worth it to play developing players more even if it means a few more losses this year, but that is not the same as tanking. Let them compete as hard as they can but you dont have to put in every resource possible to win now.

You're right, Swede. That's not the same as tanking, at least as I understand it. There's a difference between developing young talent and tanking, just as there's a difference between signing (let's say) a P.J. Brown to help produce a few more wins while sacrificing some of the rebuilding momentum for the future.

And a balance must be struck so that the young guys aren't thrown out there together on an excessive basis just to get them minutes at the expense of giving them an opportunity to develop within what I call a "womb" of veteran experience.

Sam

The idea of tanking just makes me sick.

dboss

Many of those draft picks will be traded anyway...


KJ

To clarify, the definition of tanking I was using was along the line of Swede's - not trying to win every game. I think upper level management typically looks at the team's chances and decides to invest, or not, accordingly. If there's an upside to losing the next campaign, like a prime draft pick or two or three in the offing, and the team's chances playoff success are poor, I would imagine far-sighted management might not try to win as many games as possible when stocking the roster. In my view, a good coach has far less latitude and while he may conserve veterans for a playoff run, he is charged with playing to win. As for the odds, it's true that a lottery pick is a long shot, but a one-in-five shot at glory might be tempting, especially after years in the wilderness. Hawk

I think tanking would be highly counter-intuitive to Brad Stevens trying to establish a successful system. Boston isn't very far off from being dangerous in the East, a few pieces at most. And again, they'll be packaging picks for trades anyway, so let's not put too much stock in those picks when in reality they probably won't be there.

Hawk,

The lottery will be in effect. Theoretically, Boston could go 1-81 and end up with the 6th or 7th pick. Just saying.


KJ

One area where I think the NBA could improve is to let teams use the D-League more like a minor team/development team.

A player like Fab Melo might have been able to stay in the league/under the Celtics if they were somehow allowed to put him in the D-League under contract but that he does not count against the roster limit/salary cap, until he plays more than 10 games in a season or something.

That way NBA teams could possibly get more use out of "project players" and 2nd round picks without having to give up too much.

I dont know if those players would rather play in D-league for ok money (if the teams would be interested in paying them that that is) or overseas somewhere.

Just feel that it is a shame that players get dropped so quickly because teams can not really afford to develop them salary wise or roster spot wise.

Swede,

That's an interesting idea. I wonder if there's some angle we're not thinking of that would allow a team to abuse that setup, but it seems like it could be worked out.

In one sense, don't the European leagues work that way? I believe Colton Iverson is playing in Turkey, but the Celtics still retain his NBA rights even though they don't pay him. I'm not sure how long they keep those rights, though.

From the point of view of a team, most "project" players probably aren't worth more than a year or two of investment. If the player hasn't shown something by then, then there are new crops of college players to choose from, and the team would move on to the next possibility.

Really, what Melo should've done is stay in school to hone his skills. He wasn't ready to go pro, but he wasn't keeping his grades up to stay eligible.

Still, I like your idea.

Outside wrote:Swede,

That's an interesting idea. I wonder if there's some angle we're not thinking of that would allow a team to abuse that setup, but it seems like it could be worked out.

In one sense, don't the European leagues work that way? I believe Colton Iverson is playing in Turkey, but the Celtics still retain his NBA rights even though they don't pay him. I'm not sure how long they keep those rights, though.

From the point of view of a team, most "project" players probably aren't worth more than a year or two of investment. If the player hasn't shown something by then, then there are new crops of college players to choose from, and the team would move on to the next possibility.

Really, what Melo should've done is stay in school to hone his skills. He wasn't ready to go pro, but he wasn't keeping his grades up to stay eligible.

Still, I like your idea.

swede and outside,


Some fodder for this conversation...


http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/8/15/4621594/nba-draft-europe-stash-2013



http://probasketballdraft.com/78-featurearticles/573-top-10-draft-and-stash-players.html



bob


.

Bob,

Thanks for the links. The first article in particular makes it sound like a long shot, but if they weren't long shots, they would've made the roster right away.

To swede's point, it would be helpful if a team could stash players in the Developmental League instead of having to send them overseas, but I suppose the big difference is economics -- DL teams are kept afloat financially by their associated NBA team, while the international teams are self-sufficient financially. Still, it doesn't seem like an obstacle that couldn't be overcome.

So, do they call these players "Euro-stash"?

I was trying to find out how much Colton Iverson's contract was with Besiktas of the Turkish League, but all I could find was "substantial" in one report and "more money than he likely would have made in the NBA." from A.Sherrod Blakely.

If that is the case, why would any player decide to play in the developmental league over one of the foreign leagues?  With the report that Randolph will sign a contract with the Foshan Long Lions worth between $1.5 - $2 million for the upcoming season, why hang around the US for less money?

"Salaries in the development league range from $12,000 to $24,000 a season . . ."

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=7239948

Here's another link:

http://www.ehow.com/about_5560902_nbdl-average-salary.html

You could almost make more money working at Ron's Steak House, but I guess it wouldn't be as much fun.

gyso

Gyso,

Isn't it like almost everything else? It all boils down to money.

Swede,

Okay, pack your bags. You're the next commissioner.

Sam