Assist to Turnover Ratio in Focus

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4707710/assistturnover-ratio-in-focus


Assist/turnover ratio in focus
October, 27, 2013
OCT 27 4:00PM ET
By Chris Forsberg | ESPNBoston.com



After spotlighting the play of rookie point guard Phil Pressey earlier, here's a look at Boston's leaders in assist/turnover ratio this preseason:

2.86 - Courtney Lee (20 assists, 7 turnovers)
2.18 - Phil Pressey (24, 11)
2.11 - Gerald Wallace (19, 9)
1.50 - Jordan Crawford (18, 12); Brandon Bass (12,
1.43 - Avery Bradley (20, 14)

* Analysis: Lee posted a career-high turnover percentage last season (13 percent), so it's an encouraging sign to see him drive down the giveaways at the start of the 2013-14 campaign ... Likewise, Wallace's turnover percentage (16.9) ballooned last season, but he's shown the ability to get others involved in the past ... Bradley has acknowledged that he needs to make the simple passes and not look for the home run while filling Rondo's shoes ... Whoddathunk we'd see the man nicknamed no-pass Bass on this list.


bob
MY NOTE:  As far as stats go, I love this one.  You have to keep it in perspective, though.  A guard should have a better ratio than a center or forward.  It's like a 2nd baseman having more assists than a center fielder, they just touch the ball more so you'd expect to see more assists.  AB is showing us, pretty much, exactly what we thought we'd see.  He's not a point guard.  I'd love to see these numbers /36mpg and then see if Pressey is behind Lee or ahead of him.  After all the hoopla about KO and Sully, they're not on the list.  That's disappointing, for KO, since that should be playing to his forte.


.

Bob,

Ask and you shall receive.

The ratios would be the same for 36 minutes as for the number of minutes utilized in the calculations you have presented.  The assist and turnover figures you presented just have to be divided by the number of total minutes each player played in the preseason, and the result multiplied by 36 for each player:

Courtney Lee:

Based on the 195 minutes he played in the preseason: 20 assists, 7 TO (ratio of 2.86 to 1)
Per 36 minutes: 3.69 assists, 1.29 turnovers (ratio of 2.86 to 1)

Paul Pressey:

Based on the 113 minutes he played in the preseason: 24 assists, 11 TO (ratio of 2.19 to 1)
Per 36 minutes: 7.65 assists, 3.50 turnovers (ratio of 2.19 to 1)

Avery Bradley:

Based on the 199 minutes he played in the preseason: 20 assists, 14 turnovers (ratio of 1.43 to 1)
Per 36 miinutes: 3.62 assists, 2.53 turnovers (ratio of 1.43 to 1)

• Pressey has far more total assists per 36 minutes (7.65) than the other two (Lee 3.69, Bradley 3.62)

• Lee has far fewer total turnovers per 36 minutes (1.29) than the other two (Bradley 2.53, Pressey 3.50)

• Lee had a far higher ratio of assists to turnovers (2.86 to 1) than the other two (Pressey 2.19 to 1, Bradley 1.43 to 1)

Obviously, Pressey has a major advantage lies in a more dynamic ability to set up teammates for scores.  Phil's biggest challenge will involve lowering his turnover rate.

Sam

sam,


Hmmm.  Not being a big believer in coincidence, there must be a mathematical connection between the stats he gave and the /36mpg numbers you pulled together, that he didn't mention.

Moving on, it looks like Lee is a more reliable floor general than Bradley since he has almost identical total minutes and double the stats.

Pressey's numbers look pretty good.  I wonder how well Phil's would look, compared to Paul's?  :-)  I seem to remember reading that Pressey (Phil) was averaging just under 19mpg in the pre-season.  If he gives us these numbers and averages 19mpg in the regular season, we're good.


bob


.

Bob,

Yes there definitely is a mathematical connection. All I did was to divide his stats by the number of minutes he played and then multiplied the result by 36. When you divide or multiply any two figures by the same number, the ratio between the two figures remains the same.

The corresponding figures for Chris Paul this preseason are:

Based on the 206 minutes Paul played in the preseason: 51 assists, 21 turnovers (ratio of 2.43 to 1)
Per 36 minutes: 8.91 assists, 3.67 turnovers (ratio of 2.43 to 1)

Pressey's numbers don't look that terrible by comparison (AS/TO ratio of 2.19 compared with Paul's 2.43); 7.76 assists/36 to Paul's 8.91 assists/36; AS/TO ratio of 2.19 compared with Paul's 2.43.

Sam

I don't think this makes Lee a better floor general though. Lee is a solid ball handler but I wouldn't go as far to say he is more adept as a PG than Pressey. Pressey has the ability to make the offense flow with some semblance of continuity. We've already seen Lee as a PG, and he's only marginally better than Bradley.



KJ

Bob,

Assist-to-turnover ratio is a stat that doesn't change based on the number of minutes a player plays per game. It's the same with FG percentage -- if player A plays 18 minutes a game and scores seven points while shooting 50%, when you extrapolate player A's stats to 36 minutes, he's still going to shoot 50%. The amount he scores will be different -- since 36 minutes is two times 18 minutes, his scoring per 36 minutes would double from seven to 14 points. But his percentage will stay the same -- 50%.

It's the same with assists and turnovers. The total number of assists and turnovers would change, but the assist-to-turnover ratio will stay the same.

Sam and Outside,

Ok, I didn't express myself well.  Maybe that's because I wasn't thinking well.

I realize that ratios don't change just because the universe expands or contracts.  What I should have said is "I'd like to see their gross numbers when expressed as /36mpg".  In other words, playing the same number of minutes, who had more total assists, Lee or Pressey?  Then, we might see who spreads the wealth better.  

I cross-sport metaphored on another thread when I pointed out that 2nd basemen have more assists than center fielders because they touch the ball more, so it's not surprising when they do.  They also have more errors.  The relationship between assists and errors doesn't change, but some 2nd basemen will just handle the ball more than others.  In this case, it's more like comparing a 2nd baseman and a shortstop.  Lee will handle the ball more than Hump per minute, but maybe not quite as much as Pressey.  I was interested in just how much more.


bob


.

Bob,

I figured you understood the concept, but different people have a hard time with different concepts, so I figured, what the heck. Maybe our explanations will help someone else.

I wish basketball-reference.com or another site like that would include pre-season statistics for the current season, but I haven't found a useful resource for pre-season stats.

My only problem with Lee running the point is that he, like Bradley, is susceptible to getting hassled bringing the ball up the court. Crawford, stunningly, is better at advancing the ball than both of them, but even he has is problems and is probably more turnover prone in the half court than Lee or Bradley.

Pressey is the guy to run the point. He's the only one with a pure PG skill set. I can live with some Pressey turnovers because I know that most of the time he'll have a handle on the offensive flow of the game. We don't need Crawford taking errant threes or Lee/Bradley getting trapped.



KJ

BobH,

I hope the "per 36 minutes" figures I provided have helped.

Sam