How Much Will Rajon Rondo Help The Celtics' Offense?

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STAT MAN: HOW MUCH WILL RAJON RONDO HELP CELTICS’ OFFENSE?
12.03.13 at 1:02 pm ET
By Ben Rohrbach
 




Since Rajon Rondo appears one step closer to his eventual return, now is as good a time as any to ask: Just how much will the three-time NBA All-Star point guard help the Celtics’ woeful offense when he returns?

When we last saw Rondo, his 13.7 points and league-leading 11.1 assists per game created an average of 38.0 points for the Celtics, and that doesn’t include the new free throw and secondary assist statistics available this season on NBA.com/stats or the C’s increased pace under Brad Stevens.

This season, Jordan Crawford has received 1,301 touches, which ranks 15th among the league’s guards, and the Celtics rank 26th in points per 100 possessions (96.0). It’s safe to assume there’s a correlation there.

The other 14 guards: Chris Paul, John Wall, Ty Lawson, Jeff Teague, Monta Ellis, Kyrie Irving, Damian Lillard, Jrue Holiday, Tony Parker, Mike Conley, Ricky Rubio, Steve Blake, Kemba Walker and Jose Calderon.

The most jarring name has to be Blake, who’s doing a better job replacing Steve Nash on the Lakers than Crawford is substituting for Rondo. When you combine their scoring and passing, only Calderon creates fewer points per game than Crawford (23., and that’s because Calderon shares a backcourt with Ellis.


Chris Paul: 18.9 points per game + 26.8 points created by assists per game = 45.7 points per game
John Wall: 19.0 + 22.2 = 41.2
Ty Lawson: 20.6 + 19.6 = 40.2
Jeff Teague: 17.4 + 18.7 = 36.1
Monta Ellis: 21.9 + 13.3 = 35.2
Kyrie Irving: 20.6 + 13.6 = 34.2
Damian Lillard: 20.6 + 13.5 = 34.1
Jrue Holiday: 14.5 + 18.2 = 32.7
Tony Parker: 18.1 + 14.5 = 32.6
Mike Conley: 18.3 + 13.4 = 31.7
Ricky Rubio: 8.7 + 19.9 = 28.6
Steve Blake: 10.0 + 17.6 = 27.6
Kemba Walker: 16.6 + 9.6 = 26.2
Jordan Crawford: 12.4 + 11.4 = 23.8
Jose Calderon: 11.1 + 11.9 = 23.0

Obviously, Rondo’s 38.0 points created per game would be a lot closer to Paul’s production, which nearly doubles Crawford’s. Even if Rondo isn’t at full strength, he could potentially create 10 more points per game given the same number of touches — an improvement that would propel the Celtics into the league’s top five offenses.



bob
MY NOTE:  It's a bit premature to make this judgement, and not just because we don't know how well Rondo will come back.  Rondo now has to get assists without KG and Pierce and he hasn't had to do that since his rookie year, when he didn't play much anyway.  

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The opportunities for assists that Rondo had with KG and Pierce are gone, but there will be new opportunities with this new crew. One door closes, another opens.

I think there will be opportunities on fast breaks since he now has players who can get out and run with him. We also get to see if Rondo's simpatico mind-meld with Stevens will create tangible results in offensive productivity, which I would think would be reflected in Rondo's assists as well as overall team assists.

A lot depends on how comfortable and confident he is with the knee. We'll see.

Uptempo should work well for Rondo's assists.

Bass, Bradley, Sully and Green will benefit the most with easier shots.



KJ

k_j_88 wrote:Uptempo should work well for Rondo's assists.

Bass, Bradley, Sully and Green will benefit the most with easier shots.



KJ

KJ,

Uptempo should work well for Rondo's assists, but only if Rondo doesn't walk the ball up like we've frustratingly seen him do so many times over the past 5-6 years. I'm hoping that the departures of Mssrs. Pierce and Garnett will make a difference. He no longer has to coordinate the offense of a team that became almost totally half court, he now will have a team that is young, athletic and can run, run, run. All they need is someone who will get them the ball 1-2 dribbles max away from the rim with < 6 seconds gone on the clock.


bob


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It's a reasonable assumption that walking the ball up was Rondo's response to having teammates he consistently beat up the floor when he ran. Green, Wallace, Olynyk, Lee, Crawford, Brooks, and Bradley could make for some interesting track meets. In my book, this team isn't really close to having an identity. Rondo's return could change that.

Sam