Looking at Trends

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Post by Sam Sun Mar 16, 2014 3:10 pm

At this point in the season, I believe that looking at overall trends is much more relevant than examining one disaster (I mean "game") after another individually.
 
One trend: Brad obviously has confidence in Chris Johnson's defense because he hasn't hesitated to play Chris down the stretch.  He obviously hasn't done so because of Chris' offense, which has pretty much been a one-trick pony comprised of occasional corner threes.  (That's not a knock on Chris.  If you're told you're a bad boy and you have to go stand in the corner, then corner threes are about all that are available to you.  I believe Chris is trying to diversity his game by taking the ball to the hoop more often.  Unfortunately, that tactic hasn't met with a lot of success because of not only his suspect ball-handling but also because he obviously is trying to force something for which he doesn't have a good feel as of yet.  I happen to believe that he has the body for slashing and all he needs to become a very serviceable slasher are a lot of ballhandling practice and some freedom from the three-ball shadow that hangs over his head.

Phil Pressey had finally convinced me that there's such a thing as too much racehorse basketball, especially when you're outracing your teammates so that the only options available as you approach the hoop are (1) to look back for trailers (which becomes predictable), or (2) to try to force a shot when surrounded by human redwoods, or (3) to try to bring the ball back out through the surroundsound defense you've already attracted, or (4) to call time out.  Yes, Pressey is fast.  Yes, Pressey possesses good passing skills.  Yes, Pressey occasionally threads a beautiful pass to a cutter.  But, no, Pressey doesn't (yet) have the discriminating instincts of a really good floor general.  He doesn't just push the ball, he plays helter skelter on virtually every single possession.  And I can't even type about his shooting decisions and lack of skill.  I believe practice can help build skills, as witness Rondo's and Avery Bradley's shot-making (remember, I'm talking ongoing trends, not last night).  But instincts are very much engrained or they're not engrained; and I'm coming to fear that Pressey's a good guy with a good lineage BUT has a midget body and flawed floor general instincts.

I believe the Celtics, as a team, have developed what one might call a "one-third" orientation.  Shooting around one-third for a game is good enough to keep heaving jumpers and flubbing transition opportunities.  Playing really good defense one-third of the time is sufficient, and why do all those meanies keep playing inside-out against us?  After all, this season, they've heard almost nothing but the fact these games are for development and not really for winning anyway.  The fact that one of the best ways to develop is to try hard to win is just an idiot's mantra anyway.  So, if they happen to pull one out (and I do mean "one"), that validates a less-than-intense focus on execution over time.  After having written this paragraph, I looked up the Celtics’ winning percentage this season, and guess what.  It’s exactly 33%, or one-third.

The reason I got into this little tangent is that I believe the poster boy for the "one-third mentality" is Jeff Green.  To me, the pattern of one really good game in three is not necessarily an indicator of a mediocre player or a player who can be "on" one night and indifferent the next.  I think he's the kind of player who could become a consistent star in an environment when the spirit of enthusiasm and effort carries him along with the tide.  From my point of view, the fact that he seems to play better when he gets angry support that theory or when the game is really tight and exciting.  He needs the proper motivation from without because he's incapable of generating it from within much of the time.  His needs are not consistent with a rebuilding environment.  They're more in what I would call a "Phil Jackson Entitlement" vein.  Give Jeff a front-running team, and watch him go. 

The case of Kelly Olynyk is difficult to handicap.  We all know that he's looking a lot better lately than earlier in the season.  Statistically, he's shooting better and rebounding better.  He's even hanging into the scrum under the boards more authoritatively than before.  In terms of trends, his is certainly in an upward direction.  The question with him is one of ceiling, and he obviously has not reached his yet, thanks very much to his huge basketball intellect.  I'd love to see him go to a big man camp this summer and/or to be tutored by someone like Dave Cowens.  One thing to consider with the Celtics bigs is that they're being asked to play without one-third of the front court—namely a rim-protector.  Their roles (particularly on defense) would become less arduous; and Kelly would presumably have less distance to make up in order to become a serviceable help defender.

Sully’s parents are responsible for making him another victim of a seriously unbalanced roster.  Because they endowed Sully with a big posterior, he has frequently been the Celtics’ center-by-default.  Although his parents may have given him big asspirations (not a typo), the size of the part of his body at and above his belt is most likely of his own doing.  It’s rather amazing that the fierce way he contends has not diminished his avoirdupois more than it has.  Perhaps it’s related to his metabolism, but losing some fat-based weight (not muscle) should upgrade his mobility, thus making his intensity, toughness and positioning sense all the more effective.  I know I should be taking the recently popular road of discouraging his penchant for taking three-pointers; and 24% is just plain giving away too many empty possessions.  However, if one thinks of him as more of a future high post power forward than as a center, a three-point shooting percentage in the mid-to-high 30s could be very valuable.  So I’d encourage him to spend a lot of the summer (1) shaping up his body and (2) practicing his three-point shooting.  Also, he could benefit from attending that summer big man’s camp with Kelly.  Maybe they could get a bulk rate.  (Double entendre intended because Kelly needs more bulk and Sully needs less.)

Rajon Rondo is the designated rudder of this listing ship, and—so far—it’s listing as much with him as it did without him (although there are certainly many variables involved and a number of games left in the season).  I’m afraid that, in one sense and probably one sense only, I’d have to put Rondo in the same classification as Jeff Green.  I’m betting that both would be much more effective with thriving teams than with struggling ones.  On many occasions, Rondo has been compared with Bob Cousy.  I believe the biggest difference between the two is that Rondo strives for perfection (nothing wrong with that, right?) while Cooz strived for his teammates’ perfection.  Cooz had dramatic pace-changing impact with both the developing Celtics of the early 50s and the Tyranny Celtics of the Russell Years.  Rondo had increased impact as the Garnett era progressed, but I question whether he has the mentality to have such impact with a developing team—particularly one led by a rookie coach.  This is not to say that Rondo is wrong for the team in the long run, and I have no idea what current point guard might do a better job.  But Rondo’s independent nature might slow down the development process, depending on how quickly the rest of the roster improves.

Brandon Bass continues to be perform well in a variety of ways.  I keep wishing he’d shoot more, but his repertoire is limited pretty much to the top-of-key jumper and an occasional foray to the hoop (for what I call a “bull shot”).  His defense has improved to the point where it occasionally works against him, as Brad sometimes is forced to put Brandon on a good shooter who is either taller or more agile than he is.  This guy is also a consummate professional—a worthy model for younger guys to follow.  I like Brandon a lot.  But somehow I can’t envision. him as a starting PF on a contending team.  Perhaps a backup.

Bayless has certainly had plenty of moments with this team.  He can fill it up, and he’s a better defender than some people think.  And he can play a little PG too.  He’s certainly not bashful about taking shots at critical moments.  I don’t see him as ever approaching top-of-the-line status, but he could be a good sixth-man, instant offense type—especially against relatively shorter shooting guards.

It’s good to see Avery Bradley back and, especially, to get some time with Rondo.  Even without Rondo’s presence, I believe Avery has done a pretty good job of proving that he can hit the three-ball on a catch-and-shoot basis.  He also has developed a nice little mid-range jumper in which he seems to have a lot of confidence; and that’s the one shot he can sometimes create for himself.  I’ve been very unhappy, this season, with the number of layups he rushes and misses, which cuts down on what should be speed-driven transition prowess.  I don’t see him taking as much time off the opponents’ shot clock as he used to by dogging the opposing PG all over the court.  But this could be at least partly because Avery (thankfully) plays only PG and they don’t want him crossing over on defense.  I’ve also seen him abused too often on the baseline by opponents’ drives to the hoop.  My quandary about whether or not he can maintain his athleticism-based defensive prowess over time has proven unpopular, so I won’t mention it here.  Oops.

Gerald Wallace, while he was playing, had some games in which he was missing in action.  But, for the most part, I thought he was the consummate team player, providing whatever they needed—from energetic defense to bail-out threes to offensive rebounds to clever drives to the hoop.  I’d be happy to see a 27-year-old Wallace on next year’s team, but he’ll be five years older than that in July, so I believe his time as an impact player is on the wane. 

With regard to almost anything negative I have said in this little treatise, Kris Humphries is an exception—at both ends of the floor.  He plays within his strengths, is not afraid to challenge himself, makes high-percentage moves (whether they involve shooting or blocking a shot without fouling), runs the floor, gives 100% effort, utilizes his considerable experience beautifully, is not afraid to bang, seems as tough as nails, has the most reliable shot on the team, and is a true professional.  Moreover, his performance has not been seriously affected by being forced so frequently to play out of position.  I honestly believe Kris could be as viable a part of a championship team as Bailey Howell, Paul Silas, and Kurt Rambis (just to name three of many) could.

I didn’t bother with guys like Babb, Anthony, Bogans and Faverani because of limited exposure.  Of the four, I’m most interested in the future of Babb.

I’m rather astonished, at the end of this soliloquy, to discover that I had a totally unqualified endorsement of only one Celtics player; and he’s perhaps the one most often mentioned in trade rumors.  So there’s lots of work to be done, and I hope a load of it will be accomplished over the summer. 

Go Celtics!

 

Sam


Last edited by sam on Sun Mar 16, 2014 9:01 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by dboss Sun Mar 16, 2014 4:19 pm

Sam

The single biggest problem with both Chis Johnson and Jeff Green is their handle.  Neither has the ability to get anywhere on the court when dribbling the basketball.

This means that Chris will be a shooter and defender and Jeff Green will be the same.

I am not disappointed in either one of them.  Their skills or lack there of are what they are.

Jeff Green's overall performance is significantly more important to the team.  We need a go to guy and he is not it.  Can he be a 2nd or 3rd option?  Perhaps but I would upgrade the small forward position with a player with better skills.  Green's shot selection sucks.  He takes too many ill advised three pointers and lacks the discipline to explore other scoring opportunities.  His handle is weak!  He does not dribble the ball well and has neglected the mid range game where he would have a better opportunity to be more productive.  He is a very good defender but his rebounding is sub-par.

The SF position definitely could use an upgrade.

Pressey is the backup point guard and that position needs to be upgraded as well.  Rajon Rondo may be gone in a year and we do not have a starting PG to take his place.  Pressey does not have the offensive skills to be anything other than a 3rd string PG.

Bay Leaves is exactly who I thought he was... a hot and cold player that lacks consistency in all areas of the game.  

Kelly is a guy that up to a month ago I was ready to give up on him.  His deficiencies  not withstanding, he can be a very solid rotation player.  His offense looks a lot better and while he is getting better rebounding position, he cannot rebound out of his own space and his defense overall still stinks.  I like his basketball IQ and the fact that he is improving in a lot of areas but he cannot be expected to be a great player.  He can however be a solid rotation player that could get starter minutes depending on circumstances.

Jared Sullinger is a very strong rebounder at both ends.  His strength is best realized in the low post.  His size (weight) is a detriment to not only his long term career but also to the Celtics dream of being an uptempo team.  I was watching him the other day and I swear he has gained some weight since the start of the season.  Basically in an uptempo game Sully cannot get up and down.  I understand that he is playing out of position but he really needs to lose some weight,  His knees are not going to last.   Would I upgrade the PF position?   Absolutely.

As far as Rondo is concerned he continues to get average guys great shots.  The word average is the key here.  I mentioned in another post that the motion offense will not be the primary way that the offense will run.  Rajon knows how to run an offense.  Rajon is definitely not at 100%.  That quick first step and blow by ability is not their yet.  His hops is not there yet.  I think next year he may be fully recovered from the ACL injury and those parts of his game may return.   But even if he returns to form the Celtics would be well served to draft a promising PG as a replacement.

There is really nothing wrong with the defense that Avery plays.  We do not have a rim protector so everyone's defense is being exposed on a nightly basis.  The team defense really stinks.  You cannot filter anybody to a space because there is no one there to fill space.  Our pick and roll defense stinks.  No one rotates with any sense of urgency and there is no one on the team that can intimidate an opponent on defense.  The need for a rim protector is a glaring weakness that must be addressed.  The big issue with Avery is his inability to avoid those nagging injuries that keep him off the court.

Kris Humphries has done every thing that we could want.  When his $12 million contract expires this year I would encourage him to seek out free agency opportunities.

We are stuck with Wallace for 2 years in absence of a trade and the other guys like Babb and Vitor are insignificant.  

In sum the Celtics need to upgrade their entire roster with the exception of Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley and even at the 1 and 2 spots the Celtics should add starter level depth through the upcoming drafts free agency and trades.

With the upcoming draft the Celtics hopefully can land a really good center but if not they would be well served to draft the best available player regardless of position.

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Post by cowens/oldschool Mon Mar 17, 2014 12:10 pm

Sam dboss great posts, you guys are HoFers!!

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Post by cowens/oldschool Mon Mar 17, 2014 12:21 pm

I'm sorry I couldn't resist, Jeff Green has no midrange game, its all going to the rim or the 3 ball. Doesn't have the footwork, handle or touch in the mid game.

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Post by Sam Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:36 pm

Cow, I'm not sure why you say that about Jeff.  His first shot in virtually every game in the past 10 has been a 10-12-foot turnaround jumper that—more often than not—has gone in.  Moreover, he likes to shoot from the top of the key and makes a good percentage of them.  Someone (it may have been you) talked recently about his having no mid-range game, so I've been watching him closely for that since then, and I'd have to differ.  But I've missed portions of a couple of games, so maybe he did more poorly during those times.  He has had a number of opportunities for mid-range shots that he has passed up in favor of juking and taking the ball to the hoop, but I think that's a good thing because the Celtics in general do too much of that.

I'll keep watching for his mid-range game, and maybe we can revisit it at the end of the season (since there probably won't be much else to do.)

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Post by cowens/oldschool Mon Mar 17, 2014 8:38 pm

Really Sam? didn't notice that, noticed that he clanks/bricks alot of midrange shots as he doesn't have the balance or footwork to get a clear look when covered with a hand in his face or shooting hand.

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Post by cowens/oldschool Mon Mar 17, 2014 11:03 pm

Sam not one mid range score tonite for our enigma.

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