Plenty of Celtic Options In 'Top-Heavy' Draft

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Post by bobheckler Sat May 10, 2014 3:27 pm

http://bostonherald.com/sports/celtics_nba/boston_celtics/2014/04/plenty_of_celtics_options_in_top_heavy_draft



Plenty of Celtics options in ‘top heavy’ draft

Sunday, April 27, 2014 PrintEmail10 Comments
By:  Mark Murphy


Danny Ainge has been downplaying the 2014 draft field almost from the moment others started to inflate it with a giant hype pump.

The Celtics president of basketball operations called it “top heavy.” He’s called it too good to be true.

This isn’t like March 2007, when Ainge was seen on camera a few seats down from Kevin Durant’s mother at an NCAA tournament game. A discreet sales job doesn’t have as much value now. The Celtics had the second-worst record in the league that season at 24-58, and thanks to a worst-case roll on lottery night, ended up with the fifth pick.

That pick fleshed out as the Seattle-bound Jeff Green.

The C’s now have the fifth-best odds in the May 20 lottery. While this draft doesn’t have a Durant, or even an Al Horford (third to Atlanta in ’07) or Joakim Noah (ninth to Chicago), but it could, have a few Greens — players who’ve only teased at their potential.

This time their worst-case draft position is eighth. If the C’s fall that far, or anywhere out of the top three, it’s probably time for Ainge to package up another of his signature draft night trades.

But if it is an overrated draft, there are players with a better fit than others. Here’s a look at a possible top nine and how they apply to Celtics needs:

1 Joel Embiid (7-foot center, Kansas): He has to occupy the top of Ainge’s list. Rim protection was the chief Celtics need among a multitude of weaknesses this season, and Embiid brings a lot more than defensive presence. His offensive skills are above the norm for a big prospect, and Embiid also plays with an edge. He could be a tone-setter. Though teams will know more about the stress fracture in Embiid’s back following the NBA draft combine May 14-17, there isn’t said to be the same league-wide concern that was triggered by Jared Sullinger’s disc problem two years ago. Unless they hit the jackpot on lottery night, the Celtics will pray Embiid makes a Sullinger-like slide.

2 Jabari Parker (6-8 forward, Duke): His foot speed has been criticized, and initially he may have trouble staying in front of the league’s best small forwards. But he’s powerful with an NBA-ready body. The league is getting smaller, which should benefit a tough scorer like Parker. And he will eventually score on a level the Celtics desperately need. His off-kilter pace has been compared to Paul Pierce. Nothing wrong with that.

3 Andrew Wiggins (6-8 forward, Kansas): No one near the top of the crop had a strong postseason, save for UConn’s Shabazz Napier, so those concerns about Wiggins belong on the cutting room floor. He’s not the only freshman star who ever showed reluctance to take over an offense in his first NCAA tournament. But his athletic gifts are well-documented, and he is the yin to Parker’s yang offensively. Both players will be great scorers, albeit with vastly different styles.

4 Marcus Smart (6-4 guard, Oklahoma State): Smart’s shoving incident with a Texas Tech fan revealed competitiveness, a willingness to fight for his team. You make the call on how this affects his draft stock. Even his decision to return to school for his sophomore year revealed a kind of leadership — the maturity to think for himself. He may not be a natural shooter or assist man, but as evidenced by his rebounding numbers and hard-edged style, Smart may have the greatest intangibles of anyone in this group. He would complement Rajon Rondo, not throw the C’s point guard’s status into question. He becomes an intriguing possibility if the Celtics decide not to match whatever offer Avery Bradley gets in restricted free agency.

5 DANTE EXUM (6-6 guard, Australia): He’s the great wild card of this draft. NBA scouts, including the Celtics’ Austin Ainge, got their only clear look at Exum during last year’s Under-19 World Championships in Prague. Like Smart, he can play either guard position, and has athleticism to go along with his size. The scouts obviously liked what they saw, though. His draft stock rose after his world championships performance.

6 Julius Randle (6-9 power forward, Kentucky): Here is another player who should be helped by the league’s downsizing trend. He has unusual skill off the dribble to go along with an NBA physique. Basketball intelligence may be one of his biggest question marks, though. And were the Celtics to go in Randle’s direction, what would that say about their plans for two of their in-house talents at the position, Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk — a pair of high-IQ big forwards?

7 Noah Vonleh (6-10 power forward, Indiana): Though decidedly raw in comparison to Randle, Vonleh has started to eclipse his Kentucky counterpart on some draft boards. He has great length and projects well defensively. But the Celtics face the same dilemma here. Power forward is probably the least of their needs, the Sullinger/Olynyk investment considered.

8 Kyle Anderson (6-9 forward/guard, UCLA): His nickname (“Slo-Mo”) is an unfortunate branding as the draft nears, but Anderson does indeed seem to thrive at a different kind of pace. Even at 6-9, he could be the best natural point guard in this draft, but also a player who is going to need a precise fit with the right NBA team.

9 Gary Harris (6-4 shooting guard, Michigan State): He may be the best pure shooter in the draft, which should put Harris on the Celtics’ list, though barring a lottery free fall they would trade down for this player. Again, Bradley’s situation could have an influence here.

SULLINGER: A SMART DECISION

Marcus Smart’s decision to return to Oklahoma State was immediately second guessed.

As the adage goes, you’re only giving NBA teams an opportunity to see what’s wrong with that kind of decision.

Jared Sullinger knows, because he made the same choice following his freshman year at Ohio State. News of his chronic back trouble became public, and Sullinger fell from a top 5 candidate in 2011 to 21st in 2012.

Sullinger doesn’t question his decision.

“I never looked back once I said I was coming back,” he said last week.

The reason, according to Sullinger, is that sometimes a player needs to work on his mental maturity, even if his game appears to be ready for the NBA.

“What people don’t realize is that someone can be NBA-ready basketball-wise, but (not be ready) off the court,” he said. “This year was big for (Smart) because he learned how to handle — not the disrespect, but the way of being the man of the team. He had his hiccups, but he also recovered from them in the way he treated his teammates and the way he was in the games. He did everything.”

The Celtics forward dismisses Smart’s incident with that hate-spewing fan at Texas Tech.

“I don’t think he hurt himself other than the incident at Texas Tech,” said Sullinger, who also puts additional value in Smart’s game this season.

Just because a player performs the same as a year earlier doesn’t mean he receded — the latter view an argument made by some draft watchers.

“He’s been playing some great basketball,” said Sullinger. “It’s just that his numbers didn’t increase from his freshman to sophomore year, and suddenly people don’t think he was getting better. But scouting reports are getting harder on him.”

And that, ultimately, could put Smart in the same slider category that caught Sullinger.




bob
MY NOTE:  Embiid has/had a 'stress fracture' in his back?  Hmmm, didn't know and don't like that.  Give me a clean break from contact any day over a "my back can't take the constant pounding" type of fracture.  Stress fractures end careers prematurely or significantly limit them (see Walton, Bill).  Nevertheless nobody, absolutely positively nobody, in this draft fills our needs like Joel Embiid does.  I'm hoping we get a high pick and/or the NBA doctors red-flag Embiid like they did Sullinger and Embiid drops to us.  Then Danny needs to get us one more center (Asik?  Gortat?) and let Embiid learn the NBA game and let his body finish growing to handle the physicality with fewer minutes than if he is just thrown to the wolves.  We're not in "win next year" mode, we can be patient with him. Embiid, KO, Sully and maybe even Vitor with a year of NBA under his belt. That's a pretty good young core frontcourt. Add some vets like Bass and/or Hump and we're starting to percolate.  


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Post by k_j_88 Sat May 10, 2014 5:56 pm

The stress fracture thing certainly bothers me. The Celtics could use a true anchor and an injury like that could prevent Embiid from reaching his full potential. Just the same, finding an established center also brings a short window.

But that injury of his certainly gives me reason to consider that drafting a wing is the better option, despite the need at center.


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Post by kdp59 Sun May 11, 2014 8:06 am

once Milwaukee drafts Embiid, Ainge can swoop in with a low ball offer to take Sanders' $11M deal off their hands. Bass and Bogans should be plenty.

then Danny can send Sully, Green and our top pick to Minny for Love.

we'd need to pick up a SF and we have our Go-to scorer and defensive anchor at center.

Maybe TJ Warren or Anderson at #17 along with Wallace could hold the fort at SF?

there two threads in one!

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Post by k_j_88 Sun May 11, 2014 10:12 am

kdp,

Not that I think any player on the current roster is untouchable, but I've been getting the sense that Sullinger is a keeper. He could be a future cornerstone with this franchise and was a great pick by Ainge. On a team of uncertainties, I feel like he may be the "safest" bet, though I could be wrong.



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Post by bobheckler Sun May 11, 2014 10:57 am

kdp59 wrote:once Milwaukee drafts Embiid, Ainge can swoop in with a low ball offer to take Sanders' $11M deal off their hands. Bass and Bogans should be plenty.

then Danny can send Sully, Green and our top pick to Minny for Love.

we'd need to pick up a SF and we have our Go-to scorer and defensive anchor at center.

Maybe TJ Warren or Anderson at #17 along with Wallace could hold the fort at SF?

there two threads in one!



kdp,


I do not think Bass and Bogans will get the job done for Sanders. Quite frankly I don't think Bass and Bogans and a 1st will. Who would want to sign Keith Bogans? He's going to be 34 years old tomorrow, 5/12.


bob


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Post by Outside Sun May 11, 2014 11:14 am

Why would the Celtics want Sanders? Does the team have a knucklehead deficit?
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Post by bobheckler Sun May 11, 2014 11:21 am

Outside wrote:Why would the Celtics want Sanders? Does the team have a knucklehead deficit?

outside,

Sully, Kelly and Pressey are all coach's sons, so I suppose one could answer that, "yes".


bob


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Post by dboss Sun May 11, 2014 12:18 pm

There is a guy in the middle of this draft that is going to be an allstar.

If The Celtics fall in the draft and have a chance to draft Vonleh they should do it.  If the Celtics do not bring back KH we could still use a PF and Vonleh is long and has some very good defensive skills.  Or they should go after the best available players regardless of position.

If they make a trade it better be for someone better than Raef

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Post by gyso Sun May 11, 2014 1:30 pm

bobh,

Who would like to sign (actually trade for) Keith Bogans?  Any team that wants to trade to us close to $5M of salary and then dump his sorry a$$.  His contract is not guaranteed for next season, so it is a really good trading chip to a team that wants to reduce salary.

If the team we trade him to actually wants his services, they can sign him for next season and then the process repeats.  He would play out next season and the following season his contract is again not guaranteed.  His next team could then use his contract to acquire a new asset and the third team could dump salary in the following off-season.

His contract is a series of non-guaranteed contracts and it is quite unique in its possible salary cap ramifications, starting this summer.

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Post by kdp59 Sun May 11, 2014 1:35 pm

Bob,
Bogans deal is non-guaranteed, so I throw it in deals to make the $$ work.
any team that picks up Bogans (if any) will cut him for the cap savings.

so Milwaukee, would be looking to shed Sanders $11M per deal. they take bass back at under $7M for 2 more years and Bogans makes the salarys work and they cut $4M in cap dollars ( and real dollars which matter to small market owners).

as to do we want Sanders and his 4 year $11M per deal?

LOL...well that question has been bandied about here for a while now.

but since many (including reportedly Ainge) feel that a defensive anchor is needed.....Sanders could be argued as at least one of the best that COULD be available.

moving parts is all my post was....I saw some mock drafts this mornig that had Embiid going to Mil.....read this thread, then blowie.....a wandering mind is sometimes a thing to waste.
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Post by kdp59 Sun May 11, 2014 1:42 pm

Outside wrote:Why would the Celtics want Sanders? Does the team have a knucklehead deficit?


LOL..well doesn't EVERY team need at least one?

at $11M per year though......I dunno.
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Post by bobheckler Sun May 11, 2014 2:36 pm

kdp59 wrote:Bob,
Bogans deal is non-guaranteed, so I  throw it in deals to make the $$ work.
any team that picks up Bogans (if any) will cut him for the cap savings.

so Milwaukee, would be looking to shed Sanders $11M per deal. they take bass back at under $7M for 2 more years and Bogans makes the salarys work and they cut $4M in cap dollars ( and real dollars which matter to small market owners).

as to do we want Sanders and his 4 year $11M per deal?

LOL...well that question has been bandied about here for a while now.

but since many (including reportedly Ainge) feel that a defensive anchor is needed.....Sanders could be argued as at least one of the best that COULD be available.

moving parts is all my post was....I saw some mock drafts this mornig that had Embiid going to Mil.....read this thread, then blowie.....a wandering mind is sometimes a thing to waste.


kdp,

Draftexpress has us taking Randle with #5.  We need another PF like we need another hole in the head but, in their opinions, he's the BPA.  Trader Danny might do that, he likes taking BPA so he can wheel-and-deal like a commodities trader on the floor of the CBOE, but that doesn't mean that other GMs think like Danny.  

Draftexpress also has Milwaukee taking Wiggins with #1.  Does that make sense when they have The Greek Freak and Carlos Delfino?  If they think they can move Delfino, absolutely.  Even if they don't move him right away having Wiggins and the Greek is a helluva future core start.  If they take Embiid then they have Sanders, Zaza and Embiid.  Can't argue with that either, but they need depth at 3 more than at 5 because Zaza is better depth at 5 than Delfino is at 3.

5/20 is only 9 days away and then we'll know who really has numbers 1-5, and all this will become scrambled unless the balls bounce exactly, precisely according to final season records for the all 5 of the bottom 5 teams.  I don't know what the odds on that are, but I gotta believe they're kinda long.  Trying to project trades until then is speculation based upon hypotheticals, proven with conjecture.

I'll stick to analyzing the players and their fits for our needs until then.  Feel free to knock yourself out though.


bob


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Post by Sam Sun May 11, 2014 3:41 pm

Trading 101:

• For the most part, general managers who are really intent on improving their clubs do not make trades primarily for financial reasons. They make trades to enhance the competence of their roster, not just because the salary equivalence happens to work.

• For the most part, general managers are realistic enough to understand that the trading process is NOT one of making a list of players they feel they can live without and trying to package those players and unload them in a deal with other general managers who can also live without those very same players.

• For the most part, general managers are wary of accepting multiple players in trade for a single player. It uses up roster slots (often for excess baggage). It flaunts the widely held theory that the "winning" team in a trade is the team that gets the single best player in the deal. It defies the logic stating that quantity doesn't compensate for lack of quality.

• Actually, I'm not fond of the "winning/losing" mentality in trades because I've always believed that—at least in today's NBA world—the best trade is a "win/win" one. The objective should not be to fleece the other team, although it can sometimes turn out that way. Red Auerbach, in days with very different regulations than today, developed a reputation for fleecing teams. He told me that was why half of the teams in the league refused to deal with him as early as the late 1960s. One reason why general managers might make one deal in every 100 calls they get (I just picked a random number) is because a way cannot be worked out to benefit both teams in the trade.

There are certainly exceptions to everything I say above. Thank goodness San Francisco was not one of the teams that blacklisted Red Auerbach in the trading department—right Kevin and Chief? It could be argued that Danny traded away KG and Pierce mainly for financial reasons, although that claim could lead to a protracted discussion of the importance of jump-starting the evolution of the team in terms of roster composition.

Exceptions are why I use terms like "for the most part." Moreover, what's defined as "benefiting" may differ from one team to another. But I believe these general precepts outlined above underlie much of the trade activity in the NBA. I'm sure other posters will chime in with other tenets that they think are applicable.

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Post by painter33 Tue May 13, 2014 1:50 pm

Everyone treats Jeff Green like dirt (Sully, Green, and top pick for Love) when trades are proposed, but in truth, on a multifaceted team, one on which he isn't the "person-from-whom-so-much-is-expected", he can flourish and provide scintillating play on both ends of the floor. He's much more than a throw-in, and I'm sure DA knows that.
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Post by Sam Tue May 13, 2014 2:15 pm

Hear, hear, Painter.

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