Blakely: Celtics are "really big" on Exum

A. Sherrod Blakely @SherrodbCSN
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The #Celtics are "really big" on Exum, a league source said. #Celticstalk
2:43 PM - 14 May 2014 Chicago, IL, United States



bob


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A little wordy, but an interesting comment nonetheless. I'm wondering whether his kind of "leakage" could have far-reaching implications. Let's say, just for the sake of discussion, that the Celtics have decided that Exum's their guy for a variety of reasons including but not limited to the fact that he would provide insurance and depth at PG and SG (if not SF as well). Does that buttress the increasing feeling that Danny's pretty confident in landing a center by trade or free agency?

What would happen if the Celtics actually had the balls to draft first and picked Exum? We might have to start a second forum because there would be so much material for discussion.

Sam

I'm too cynical to take this at face value. Danny does a good job keeping the team's thoughts private and only releasing information when he chooses to. I'm more inclined to think this is a calculated attempt at misdirection than a reflection of their true intentions.

sam wrote:A little wordy, but an interesting comment nonetheless.  I'm wondering whether his kind of "leakage" could have far-reaching implications.  Let's say, just for the sake of discussion, that the Celtics have decided that Exum's their guy for a variety of reasons including but not limited to the fact that he would provide insurance and depth at PG and SG (if not SF as well).  Does that buttress the increasing feeling that Danny's pretty confident in landing a center by trade or free agency?

What would happen if the Celtics actually had the balls to draft first and picked Exum?  We might have to start a second forum because there would be so much material for discussion.

Sam  

sam,


Or maybe this was a contrived, planned leak by Danny to Blakely to make other GMs think that the Celtics want Exum which would make Rondo available to create a trading feeding frenzy.  Or maybe this was a contrived, planned leak to make other drafters think that the Celtics will take Exum, so they should take him first, which will let a juicier plum fall to us.  Or maybe...

Great, we like Exum, so does everybody else and no, I don't believe a word out of Danny's mouth when it comes to possible trades/draft choices or player injuries.

If there is an interesting aspect of this, to me, it's that Blakely thinks Danny likes a kid based upon an interview but before he actually works out.


bob


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The top 3 picks will still be the same. And I'm sure Danny wants as high a pick as possible.

This isn't a knock against Exum, though.


KJ

Well, my friends, not everything must necessarily be a smoke screen or subterfuge, as enticing as tying that in with predictions may be. It's interesting that no one has taken a stab at answering my question, which posed a certain specific scenario and asked for reactions under that scenario. Maybe it's just an unanswerable question; and, if so, never mind.

Sam

Well, yeah, me too...

What was that?  Oh; A. Sherrod Blakely.  I thought it said the Celtics were big on Blake Lively!

Well, OK, but Sherrod Blakely has proven about as accurate with the Celtics lately as I was on that topic.

sam wrote:It's interesting that no one has taken a stab at answering my question, which posed a certain specific scenario and asked for reactions under that scenario. Maybe it's just an unanswerable question; and, if so, never mind.

Your previous post had two questions. I'm guessing that you were looking for an answer to the first one, but I'll take a crack at both, just to be on the safe side.

sam wrote:Let's say, just for the sake of discussion, that the Celtics have decided that Exum's their guy for a variety of reasons including but not limited to the fact that he would provide insurance and depth at PG and SG (if not SF as well).  Does that buttress the increasing feeling that Danny's pretty confident in landing a center by trade or free agency?

The first thought that came to mind is that it buttresses the feeling that Rondo isn't their guy. I think Rondo wouldn't like that move one bit.

I don't see how Danny can feel confident in landing a center by trade or free agency. They haven't really had a center since Krstic left during the lockout. Gortat hasn't even finished playing. Asik is still under contract, and Daryl Morey still wants two all-stars and two first-round picks for him. Larry Sanders is still a knucklehead. Free agents don't become free until July 1, and they can't sign free agents or make trades until July 11. Unless Danny has an audio tape of another GM going Sterling, confidence in landing a center by trade or free agency would seem misplaced. Phil was confident he'd get Steve Kerr, and look what that got him.

I suppose Ainge could be confident in getting one of those Euro-toothpick centers later in the draft, but that's about it, unless Larry Bird is so disgusted with Hibbert that he called to offer him for Keith Bogans and a trade exception or two.

sam wrote:What would happen if the Celtics actually had the balls to draft first and picked Exum?  We might have to start a second forum because there would be so much material for discussion.

Yes, that would amp up the excitement. But something tells me things are going to get amped up around the forum no matter who they pick. Rebuilding is a multi-year process, but this offseason is a big step in that process, both with the draft and with trades. Ainge is under the gun to perform the next couple of months.

Outside,

I don't know for certain whether Danny has a high degree of confidence in getting a center. However, I do believe he has a high degree of determination in that direction, which might be even better. I believe that, if the Celtics were to draft Exum, he'd be majoring in SG and minoring in PG. I think Rondo might welcome having a high-octane backcourt mate whose defensive assignment would be to take the taller opposing guards.

Yes, that was the question in which I was interested. But I agree with your answer to the other question.

Thanks for answering.

Sam

I really have serious doubts that this leak really means anything at all, or if it's even "factual."

I'll explain later why I used quotations for factual, but first I want to preface that thought with this:

Other teams have their own scouting personnel. They probably have all of the same information that the Celtics do when it comes to Exum. I just don't see how this kind of psychological tactic would even work. It's not like Team A will pass on Jabari Parker or Andrew Wiggins because Team B "leaked" info stating they're seriously interested in Dante Exum.

Now to return to "factual," the Celtics probably like Exum and would draft him if he were the "best player available." But I'm thinking every other GM would make that decision anyway.



KJ

k_j_88 wrote:I really have serious doubts that this leak really means anything at all, or if it's even "factual."

I'll explain later why I used quotations for factual, but first I want to preface that thought with this:

Other teams have their own scouting personnel. They probably have all of the same information that the Celtics do when it comes to Exum. I just don't see how this kind of psychological tactic would even work. It's not like Team A will pass on Jabari Parker or Andrew Wiggins because Team B "leaked" info stating they're seriously interested in Dante Exum.

Now to return to "factual," the Celtics probably like Exum and would draft him if he were the "best player available." But I'm thinking every other GM would make that decision anyway.



KJ

KJ,

You're right about other teams having their own scouting departments and see the same things the Celtics do and that's why this can even make sense.

So, hypothetically, suppose a team that is picking behind us, oh let's just say the Lakers, covet Exum because their point guard is a nonagenarian.  If they believe Danny's going to take Exum before they can get to pick they might strike a deal with a team ahead of us and have them draft Exum and trade him to the Lakers for the #6 pick + other assets.  If the #4 team doesn't have a shot at Embiid, Wiggins or Parker and doesn't want/need Exum, they might do that and take Aaron Gordon @ 6 instead and also have whatever goodies the Lakers threw in to make the deal (which is better than just taking Gordon with #4 straight up).  By doing this, Danny might fake out everybody by having someone NOT getting picked higher because the Lakers want Exum and not Parker or Randle or someone else that is a top 4 and wouldn't otherwise be likely to drop to us.  He might be leaking this to generate pressure on teams behind us to make trades and that shakes other players loose.

Danny was picking #16 last year.  He had been hearing the rumors that the Jazz had drooled over Kelly after he worked out for them (I heard those rumors too).  The problem was that the Jazz picked #14.  So, Danny traded up to preempt them. Was the Jazz rumors a ruse or did they just play a lousy game of poker? If they just got giddy with what they saw and yipped about it to the wrong reporter, then they got "Ainged".

All this, including the original report by Blakely, might complete hogwash, of course.  I'm just completely and totally convinced that you cannot believe anything that comes out of Danny's mouth, out of his media department's mouth or out of the mouth of anybody who says he has an "inside scoop" out of Danny's domain if those words have anything to do with potential trades/potential signings/potential draftees/player injuries.  He's not in the business of being honest and forthcoming, he's in the business of cutting deals and the best deals are the ones that nobody else, especially other GMs, see coming.  


bob


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BobH,

So what you're saying is more of the focus ought to be on the potential ripple effect than the words themselves? It does make more sense that way.

I think the implications of this story will gain more traction after the lottery, because the Celtics could either have a chance at a Top 3 pick, Exum, or could be completely locked out of either of those options. But if the Celtics end up at the lowest possible selection, I'm not quite sure of the chances of trading up in the draft to get Exum would be.


KJ

k_j_88 wrote:BobH,

So what you're saying is more of the focus ought to be on the potential ripple effect than the words themselves? It does make more sense that way.

I think the implications of this story will gain more traction after the lottery, because the Celtics could either have a chance at a Top 3 pick, Exum, or could be completely locked out of either of those options. But if the Celtics end up at the lowest possible selection, I'm not quite sure of the chances of trading up in the draft to get Exum would be.


KJ

KJ,

A lot of things will become much more clear after Tuesday but, to borrow some words from an old Joni Mitchell song "Free Man in Paris", if you are "stoking the star maker machinery" you want to start as soon as it makes sense to do it. Exum is at the Combine. The Celtics have or are scheduled to interview him. The stars are in alignment for a PR hype. Everybody knows he is on their radar, maybe Danny wants to just make him look like a B-52 and not a Cessna.

You never know, you never ever really know with Trader Danny. He is incredibly crafty. He plays chess, and plays it well, not checkers. A feint is not a head-shaking maneuver for such as he. It might just be the set-up for right cross.


bob



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I am sure many teams are focused on Exum, not just Danny, if the report is true.

If Exum is really a true pg and Boston does draft him on draft night, what does this say to Rondo and the odds that they can re-sign him?

I think Boston will lose Avery Bradley this summer.
If Boston loses Rondo the following season, this will hurt their chances of being a free agent landing place.
If Boston drafts Exum and trades Rondo, teams will know they are looking to ship out Rondo and probably give Boston low ball offers for Rondo.

TJ,

I think the Celtics pursuing Exum would be hedging their bets.

Rondo can still be retained if a deal is worked out, and then they'll have a talented young player that can play both PG and SG and an elite PG.

And if Rondo leaves, the Celtics still have a PG to move forward with. The same also holds true for Bradley in this context, because it is very likely that Bradley could be gone from this team.

However, if the Celtics were to lose both Rondo and Bradley, then Exum certainly would not be enough and they'd have to find another guard.



KJ

tjmakz wrote:I am sure many teams are focused on Exum, not just Danny, if the report is true.

If Exum is really a true pg and Boston does draft him on draft night, what does this say to Rondo and the odds that they can re-sign him?

I think Boston will lose Avery Bradley this summer.
If Boston loses Rondo the following season, this will hurt their chances of being a free agent landing place.
If Boston drafts Exum and trades Rondo, teams will know they are looking to ship out Rondo and probably give Boston low ball offers for Rondo.

TJ,

You're right about a lot of teams are focused on Exum.  By making the level of interest known, and perhaps hyping it a bit, it creates buying tension in other suitors for Exum and motivated buyers will offer better deals.  Danny might be saying how much he likes Exum just to validate what everybody else thinks.  It's not in his interest to pooh-pooh Exum even if he doesn't like him.  Talk him up to potential trading partners.

Drafting Exum might not mean anything about Rondo anymore than Danny trading for Green meant anything about Pierce.  Exum will be a rookie who can play PG and SG.  Our backup point guard right now is Phil Pressey.  While Pressey has a very high IQ and is a pass-first PG, wouldn't anybody rather have a top-flight 6'6" backup PG?  He is also, you pointed out, highly thought of by a lot of teams.  Danny might draft him and then package him.  Or maybe Rondo will be gone next year.  Or maybe he re-signs with Boston and then Danny trades him after Exum proves himself on the court in a year or two and Rondo has 3-4 more years left on his new contract which is reassuring to other GMs.  Hard to say.

Bradley could be gone.  It depends on a number of factors.  For example, if the Celtics draft Smart then Bradley might be considered redundant.  As a restricted free agent, though, I don't think the Celtics will "lose" Avery Bradley.  What might happen is a sign-and-trade where we match the acquiror's bid and then ship him for someone else.  A combination of drafting Smart and Bradley (and maybe one of our PFs) for a center or someone else (we are more than 2 players away) might still an upgrade team-wise because Smart could replace Bradley and we have a surplus of 4s.

Next summer is next summer.  The Celtics will have a minimum of 2 first round picks in the 2015 draft (their own and one from the Clippers), possibly 3 depending upon how well the 76ers do next year (from the Crawford/Brooks for Anthony + picks deal) or it will be 2 firsts and 2 seconds.  What if Danny signs a marquis player this summer/next year?  Will that lower Rondo's price and make him more likely to re-sign because the re-build is ahead of schedule?  If it's Rondo plus another All-Star, won't that make it more likely Danny will be able to pick up a 3rd?  Besides, I'm not seeing a likely scenario in which Rondo leaves and Danny gets nothing for him and whatever/whomever Danny gets will not be a scrub.  You don't give up a 28 year old top-5 PG, 4x All-Star, 2x All-Defense First Team and 2x All-Defense Second Team and 2x NBA assist leader for a bunch of scrubs.  Danny will get value.


bob


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Here's a video of Blakely talking about Exum from Chicago. He's saying, now, that he doesn't think Exum will drop below 3rd.


http://www.csnne.com/boston-celtics/blakely-exum-big-winner-combines-first-day



bob


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What some people don't seem to take into account is that the potential value of a draft pick doesn't necessarily depend on him as it depends on what happens with his new teammates. If Exum could be slotted as a combo guard, with the ability to get minutes and strut his stuff at both positions, he could affect decisions made about a number of players other than himself.

Sam