Comparing Jared Sullinger And Julius Randle

An intriguing thought since the #6 pick (Randle?) or Sully might be going to Minny...



http://www.celticshub.com/2014/05/30/2014-nba-draft-comparing-jared-sullinger-julius-randle/


One of the most legitimate reasons fans were so disappointed when Boston fell to sixth in the NBA Draft Lottery is the available talent. Had the Celtics gotten a top-4 pick, they likely would have been able to fill a position of need simply by drafting Andrew Wiggins, Dante Exum or Jabari Parker. Instead, the best players likely to be available are fours who probably won’t be able to play center — Noah Vonleh, Aaron Gordon and Julius Randle.

Randle is an interesting prospect for Boston. Many aspects of his game appear to be similar to a player the Celtics already have in place — Jared Sullinger. After all, both had back-to-the-basket games and great advanced metrics in college, both are very strong but perhaps a little undersized, both are clearly power forwards who can’t defend the rim. So why would Boston take Randle with its sixth pick?
Before we continue, let’s run through some comparisons between the two.



As you can see, the numbers are strikingly similar, with Sully’s advanced college stats checking out a little higher than Randle’s. Randle may well end up being the better defender since his speed will give him options as the big defender in the PnR and his strength will cause problems for smaller players, but the difference probably isn’t significant enough to make a final decision over.

The biggest difference between the two is in Sullinger’s jumpshot. This season, Sully was an abysmal 27 percent from behind the arc on 2.8 attempts per game (3.7 per 36 minutes), but he can shoot from mid-range (45.6 percent on long two-pointers), which makes him a pick-and-pop threat.

But Randle has Sully beat in several aspects. First, he’s a much better ball-handler and passer. Both players finished with nearly identical turnover rates, but Randle can take his man off the dribble as well as score off the bounce in transition. He’s very left-hand dominant, but his combination of strength and athleticism serves his back-to-the-basket game well, and the speed will likely allow it translate to the NBA a little better than Sullinger’s. Randle doesn’t have Sully’s range (yet), but he very well might not need it initially.

Drafting Randle would make certainly Sully superfluous, however, so Boston would likely have to make a decision between the two. Part of that decision would be based on each player’s talent, obviously, but part also would be based on the package the Celtics could get in return. If Boston could get a very good player in return for Randle, the Cs might draft and deal him, even if they think he will eventually be the better player. But they’ll have to weigh the options carefully — Sullinger plus (Player X acquired in the Randle deal) vs. Randle and (Player X acquired in a deal for Sullinger). The better combination would be constantly in flux during trade negotiations, depending on the value of Player X, and it would be an extremely tricky situation, either way.

The good news: Boston would be keeping at least one big, bruising player (Tyler Lashbrook, in his excellent breakdown of Randle’s game over on SB Nation, correctly called Kentucky’s ex-power forward a “hoss”) capable of scoring and rebounding on both ends of the floor, and either way the Celtics would have a chance to get value back in return. If you believe (as I do) that players like Sullinger and Randle have a lot of value in today’s NBA, seeing the Celtics pick Randle and test the trade waters for both wouldn’t be bad draft night result at all.




bob


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I don't get the math. If Sully were to be a centerpiece of a trade for Love, the Celtics could still use the #6 pick for something other than a PF because they'd have their PF in Love with Olynyk (and maybe Humph? in reserve. If the Celtics drafted Randle at #6 and flipped him to Minny, they'd have yet another logjam at PF (Love, Sully, Olynyk) and no #6 pick to include in a trade for a center.

I don't get it.

Sam

sam,

I think the writer is assuming that Randles' talent sticks out as much ahead of the other players left at #6.

we need to remember as well that Sully played TWO years at Ohio St.

Randle could well be the beast of college ball if he played a second year ( and then the top player in the 2015 draft).

you all know I see Randle as a 20-10 guy in the NBA...something about his game and body says NBA star even at 19YO.

now he could turn out to be knucklhead, or get injured or decide he has enough money now and no need to work..it is always somewhat of crapshoot form that perspective.

But I still see him and Parker as the closest thing to sure things in the draft. I can see both of them as long time all-stars.

I will add I think McDermott is the third guy who is closest to a sure thing (though maybe not the elite long time all-star like Parker and Randle).

Embiid..Maybe IF the back is OK and he continues to learn the game.

Wiggins.......I still have my doubts, his personality (on the floor) reminds me more of Jeff Green THAN Michael Jordan.

Randle will be good, but I hope we get Vonleh, who's 18 and still growing. How sure are the soothsayers that Utah wants Randle? Hawk

kdp,

I surely wouldn't argue with your assessments of the players you mentioned, including Randle. But let me ask you this. Who would you rather have as the power guys of the Celtics? Randle and (with Sully having been included in a trade for Love) Faverani......or Love and Asik? Or who would you rather have as the power forward on the Celtics? Love or Randle? More important, why?

Pick number six could be crucial in getting a good center or one of the most proven power forwards in the game. I believe the trade value of that pick will bring more incremental returns than using it on Randle.

Sam

Randle will probably be drafted before the Celtics have a sniff of a chance.

That is, if GMs pick based on best player available.


KJ

k_j_88 wrote:Randle will probably be drafted before the Celtics have a sniff of a chance.

That is, if GMs pick based on best player available.


KJ

KJ,

So, you think 1-5 will be (not necessarily in this order): Embiid, Wiggins, Parker, Exum, Randle?

That would mean Smart, Vonleh, Gordon or Saric (those being the players that most people have going 6-9) dropping to us?

Who would you like to see, of those, or do you prefer some other dark horse or trading down (assume that Danny's not sending #6 for Asik or Love)?


bob


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I think Vohleh could play center, or at least centeresque, at 6' 9 1/2'', 18, perhaps still growing, 7' 4'' wingspan, and quickness. Next year, another rebuilding year, would be a perfect time to learn.
If we look at a presumed draft order of Embiid, Wiggins, Parker, Exum, Randle, as Bob summarized, we can choose Smart, Vonleh, Gordon or Saric among others. If we're trading Rondo, we take Smart. Otherwise, those others are worth keeping IMHO.
Other than Embiid, the prize because of his size and fluidity, several of the next 7-8 picks are intriguing and hard to rate. Hope we don't go for Love, rush to rebuild. Another year of drafting high and often might be a quicker path back to the top, with players coming into their own two or three years from now.
The story at the top suggests Vonleh will go to Utah, leaving Randle available. If this happens, I hope we take Randle and keep him, deal Sully and Bass. Hawk

bobheckler wrote:

k_j_88 wrote:Randle will probably be drafted before the Celtics have a sniff of a chance.

That is, if GMs pick based on best player available.


KJ

KJ,

So, you think 1-5 will be (not necessarily in this order):  Embiid, Wiggins, Parker, Exum, Randle?

That would mean Smart, Vonleh, Gordon or Saric (those being the players that most people have going 6-9) dropping to us?

Who would you like to see, of those, or do you prefer some other dark horse or trading down (assume that Danny's not sending #6 for Asik or Love)?


bob


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There are no trades that look too appetizing to me at the moment. Especially the Kevin Love trade. Asik is a "little" more palatable.

I'm thinking the Celtics could end up with Vonleh or Smart, both good picks either way.



KJ

sam wrote:kdp,

I surely wouldn't argue with your assessments of the players you mentioned, including Randle.  But let me ask you this.  Who would you rather have as the power guys of the Celtics?  Randle and (with Sully having been included in a trade for Love) Faverani......or Love and Asik?  Or who would you rather have as the power forward on the Celtics?  Love or Randle?  More important, why?

Pick number six could be crucial in getting a good center or one of the most proven power forwards in the game.  I believe the trade value of that pick will bring more incremental returns than using it on Randle.

Sam

I don't disagree with  your last sentence there Sam.

as to your question it's an interesting one for sure. Love has already proven to be a 20-10 guy the NBA and he's only 25YO. so a sure thing always beats  a possible one to me.

however we also need to add in the cost of acquiring Love in the mix as well. lets say Three assets (players and or draft picks) minimum. Now it balances the decision a but more.

Since I think there may be a bidding war for Love and a team will have to over-pay for him, I tend to say  I would rather take the chance on Randle.

picking Randle would require Ainge to look at moving two out of Sully, KO and Bass for other assets or pieces in the rebuild, IMO.

with all that said I do NOT think Randle will be Ainge's pick, if he keeps it at #6.

Randle would be an upgrade over both Sully and KO. However I can live with the two former first rounders and pass on Randle

I would take the best available big at # 6 and I hope it is Vonleh.  He played center in college and I see no reason why he cannot play some center in the NBA.  He has all of the physical tools needed to do that.  Neither Sully nor KO will ever be rim protectors.  Sully is longer than KO and even then his wingspan is only 7'.  Vonleh has a 7' 4" wingspan and can block shots rebound and step away from the paint and make shots.  What's not to like?

There is not going to be any big splash in the pond of hope this year.  Kevin Love will not be wearing a Celtics uniform.  And the prospects of getting Asik are perilous.

At # 17 I would take either (PG Payton or SG P.J. Hairston or Levine or go after one of the many SF that will be available.  

Payton is 6' 3" and would be an excellent choice to BU Rondo and provide some leverage given Rondo's free agency next year.  The Celtics need to think more like the Patriots.  Draft the replacement the year before.

Hairston can flat out score from outside and he knows how to take it to the hole.  Levine could be the best player in the draft.  He is a combo guard that could matriculate into the rotation as a third guard behind AB and RR.  He is lightening quick and as we know has ridiculous hops.  He would be the biggest risk/reward gamble.

Danny's fireworks that he promised to set off may be more like a few firecrackers than the big boom of a cherry bomb.

This is not 2007 although we find ourselves in a similar situation.  There is no transformative players out there to trade for,  Kevin Love would make the Celtics a better team but he does not address their most pressing needs.  That is the reason why I think it would be impulsive to tie up big time assets on a player that only plays well at one end of the court.

I do not have the hots for Asik but at the same time I can see us going after him but I would not use this year's picks to do that.

The Celtics are going to be a lot younger this year but they still have enough veterans in the mix to be an exciting competitive team.  Next year is the year where the free agency class may provide that high end player that we seek.  After this year we still have 8 first rounders over the next 4 years which provides a wide open pipeline to add additional talent that can be added as needed, position by position.

dboss

dboss wrote:Randle would be an upgrade over both Sully and KO. However I can live with the two former first rounders and pass on Randel

I would take the best available big at # 6 and I hope it is Vonleh.  He played center in college and I see no reason why he cannot play some center in the NBA.  He has all of the physical tools needed to do that.  Neither Sully nor KO will ever be rim protectors.  Sully is longer than KO and even then his wingspan is only 7'.  Vonleh has a 7' 4" wingspan and can block shots rebound and step away from the paint and make shots.  What's not to like?

There is not going to be any big splash in the pond of hope this year.  Kevin Love will not be wearing a Celtics uniform.  And the prospects of getting Asik are perilous.

At # 17 I would take either (PG Payton or SG P.J. Hairston or Levine or go after one of the many SF that will be available.  

Payton is 6' 3" and would be an excellent choice to BU Rondo and provide some leverage given Rondo's free agency next year.  The Celtics need to think more like the Patriots.  Draft the replacement the year before.

Hairston can flat out score from outside and he knows how to take it to the hole.  Levine could be the best player in the draft.  He is a combo guard that could matriculate into the rotation as a third guard behind AB and RR.  He is lightening quick and as we know has ridiculous hops.  He would be the biggest risk/reward gamble.

Danny's fireworks that he promised to set off may be more like a few firecrackers than the big boom of a cherry bomb.

This is not 2007 although we find ourselves in a similar situation.  There is no transformative players out there to trade for,  Kevin Love would make the Celtics a better team but he does not address their most pressing needs.  That is the reason why I think it would be impulsive to tie up big time assets on a player that only plays well at one end of the court.

I do not have the hots for Asik but at the same time I can see us going after him but I would not use this year's picks to do that.

The Celtics are going to be a lot younger this year but they still have enough veterans in the mix to be an exciting competitive team.  Next year is the year where the free agency class may provide that high end player that we seek.  After this year we still have 8 first rounders over the next 4 years which provides a wide open pipeline to add additional talent that can be added as needed, position by position.

dboss

Between baseball games for my son right now without much time, so I'll just take this dboss post and say "me too."

I think Smart will be gone before #6, but he would be the one other possibility if we wanted to go for a 2-guard (who could be insurance at point if Rondo departs) and wait on a center.

If we were to come away with Vonleh and Payton, I think we would have had a very, very good night.

I think the top end comparisons for Vonleh are C. Bosh.

I can see him being the same type player in the NBA, once he matures.

in todays NBA Bosh is an adequate center, who can be part of a championship team as we see (with at least one superstar around him).

With Vonleh, I worry about his intensity. As a young freshman center, he was too passive. I'd have liked to have seen him play another year at Indiana.

dboss,

I just don't get why the Celtics would want a player who can play "some center." Sully and Humph can play "some center." Especially if passivity is a potential problem.

Sam

sam wrote:dboss,

I just don't get why the Celtics would want a player who can play "some center."  Sully and Humph can play "some center."  Especially if passivity is a potential problem.

Sam

Sam

I did not mean to suggest that Vonleh is our answer at center.  We have as serious a problem at PF with respect to defense and I see Vonleh as an upgrade over both Sully and KO on defense.  It just so happens that he played center in college and therefore he should be able to play some center in the pros.

The biggest reason why the Celtics should draft Vonleh is because he is the 2nd best big coming out besides Embiid.  I think of the potential for him to fill a role like Serge Ibaka.

We still could use a 7 footer.  Asik or perhaps Gortat in some sort of sign and trade transaction.  We will have to move someone to make this happen.  But I would not lose any sleep over it if we did not get one of them.

Maybe we continue to use a center by committee rotation until the right move comes along.  Iverson may be ready this year as well.  After watching the Heat crush the Pacers and their great defensive center it is apparent that the traditional structure of NBA teams is changing dramatically.  The Post center era has passed us by.  Defense begins on the perimeter and with defending the pick and role.  Forwards rebound, defend and score  as well as centers.  Our rim protection deficit was as much the result of our inability to defend the Pick and Role as it was not having a big guy in the middle.

The Celtics can win with a smaller lineup provided we have active defenders and enough shooters.

dboss

Dboss,

I understand your points. I know a lot of people must feel I share a focus on winning now, but that's not the case. I don't really care whether they can sin a few more games with smaller players. I have a focus on developing now. And I don't believe they can develop defensively any more than they did last season with a negative ripple effect starting with a committee of undersized centers.

Sam

The Celtics have had a couple of pretty good undersized centers and a few 7 foot slugs.

My preference continues to be some sort of trade to acquire Gortat # 1 or Asik # 2.

But I would not break the bank for either one of them although I think Gortat is the better all-around player. After watching him during the playoffs I can see that he would be able to help the Celtics. I still have questions about Asik.

I also see the team developing even if they do not have a 7 footer. I think that our perception about the center being the anchor of the defense in todays game has change.

Teams like OKC use Serge Ibaka as there main front line defender who also has the ability to go out and check shooters.

Miami uses LeBron as the defensive center fielder, rooming around all over the place disrupting the offensive

We need long mobile bigs.

dboss