Summer Quandaries: In-Season Change From Growth Rather Than Personnel Moves?

http://celticsgreen.blogspot.com/2014/08/sq14-35-in-season-change-from-growth.html






Not only do I think that there are few moves available to be made before camp, I kinda think that the 15 guaranteed contracts in place today mean the roster on Oct. 30 will be about what we see on Oct. 1st.  While I remain convinced that Danny Ainge has a thousand trade scenarios mapped out on his office white board, and is willing to pull the trigger on at least 100, I think the league is a bit clogged up right now.  Without some Draino or at least a purgative, moves before and during this season may be few and far between.  Given all this bloated roster and association constipation, it seems rather likely that any changes between game one and game eight-two will be due to player development, team familiarity and chemistry building, and the guys imprinting the offense and defense from coach Brad Stevens.  The other formative process, I hope, will be the introduction and honing of a running game.

On an individual level, the second and third year men might be expected, and hoped, to make a leap in their quality of play.  This week I have written about both Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk.  Also in this biggest-career-jump period are Vito Faverani, Tyler Zeller, and Phil Pressey.  Entering their fourth or fifth years are Evan Turner, Marcus Thornton, and Avery Bradley.  While it is not reasonable to expect that all these players will have things fall into place and suddenly “get it,” it is reasonable to hope that all improve and several improve radically.

Just in case there is some roster movement, let me note that Chris Johnson and Chris Babb are also in this most-likely-leap period.  Overall, not unreasonable to expect an improved team from individual player growth alone.

But wait, there’s more.  Not only do you get the leap-forward sophs and juniors, but you have a team gaining enough familiarity to perhaps jell.  They know each other better, they know their coach better (and he, them), and they have at least some (rather than none) experience with his offense and defense.  Last year, in spite of starting as a group of scattered strangers, Stevens molded his ill-fitting parts into a relatively coherent, albeit over-matched, team that played together, played hard, and competed to the bitter end.  I think there is reason to believe that the good parts will repeat, the bad parts will be reduced, and the new additions can and will be leveraged to greater production on the court.  They won’t win a huge majority of their games, but I am optimistic that they might well win a majority, and by most measures that would be a huge victory.

I see a running game as a major wild card.  If these Celtics can begin (it would be folly to expect it to appear full blown) a running game, attitude really, then it has the potential to become a weapon in its own right.  The Celtics of old pushed the ball not just to cash in a few easy baskets on the fast break, but to build a physiological and psychological edge.  Reversing the direction of the flow with instantaneous outlet passes, inbounding the ball before the opponents could begin to retreat on defense, and advancing the ball in the air rather than just with the dribble--these all forced the other team to expend additional energy just trying to get back and set up, frequently forcing them to start their defense in disarray, and pressuring them to make those first few critical decisions in split seconds and often without the chance to ascertain where their teammates were positioned or which lanes the trailing offensive players were filling.  Many times the opponent’s offensive stars played the fourth quarter on wobbly legs, worn down by scrambling on defense the first three quarters when they were normally used to coasting on the defensive end.  One of my fondest hopes for this season is for Heinsohn to be ecstatic in his side line seat and bellowing “Run, baby run!” throughout the game.

While I don’t expect the Celtics to drive deep into the playoffs, I do hope, and believe, that no one will want to play them in April and May.  For this year, a tough out is pretty darn good.  And, it makes a wonderful stepping stone from which to launch the 2015-2016 campaign.

Only 29 more days until training camp begins.



bob
MY NOTE:  Sure, a lot of the same ideas that have been kicked around for a while (rookies will be sophomores, sophomores will become 3rd year players, etc) but I like the way Lee Lauderdale thinks.  He set aside an entire paragraph just to address the value of chemistry.  Trite, perhaps, but it's the right way to look at it.  He also talked, repeatedly, about an uptempo running game and the virtue of doing it.  Add all this up and do we have 50 wins?  I truly doubt it, but I think we'll see a respectable step up.

Kudos to Lee Lauderdale for carrying us through the doldrums with topics to discuss every single day until we are now within a month of training camp and the real professional beat writers start applying themselves again.  I'm not sure they're better writers, nor more reliable or interesting ones, but they have access to players, coaches and management that Lauderdale doesn't.  Despite putting out a few dogs this summer he has also put out a lot of interesting premises worth discussing and he has consistently hammered on the benefits of uptempo.  



.

Nothing like a good run game. I hope that Brad stresses the importance this time around. The Celtics could compensate for the lack of "All World" players by just outhustling the other teams.



KJ

Lee's back on track. I believe I can say, without qualification, that I endorse every syllable. The growth he references is the main reason I say that conjecture can be fun but it's only what happens on the court that really means anything. And also why I say the past is not the present and the present is not the future.

I find it rather amazing that so many of us (definitely including myself) sometimes base our evaluation of players on their lifetime stats rather than on the most recent play. It's entirely possible that a confluence of improved player ability /anor physicality, a role ideally suited to the player, motivation from without (e.g., a contract year), good coaching, repetitions, and synergy with teammates can enhance a player's improvement dramatically. So called "breakthrough" years are usually due to some combination of these factors.

The sad thing is that, although we realize at some point that progress has been made, it's very difficult to enjoy that progress bit by bit because it's not all that noticeable. Sort of like how friends can be astounded by the growth of a child they haven't seen for a while but the child's parents haven't focused on daily changes.

This is one reason why I believe our Game On Threads are so valuable. The collective insights gives us an opportunity to infuse each of us with perspectives that might have eluded us otherwise; and our enjoyment and knowledge increase commensurately. I only wish more of our members found it possible to participate in those threads.

Sam