Brad Stevens Deserves Votes For Coach Of Year

Brad Stevens deserves votes for coach of year
March, 19, 2015
MAR 19 7:08 PM ET
By Chris Forsberg | ESPNBoston.com







David Butler II/USA TODAY Sports



While Mike Budenholzer and Steve Kerr sit atop the COY race, Brad Stevens warrants consideration.
Most coaches would have waved a white flag when trailing by double digits with 46 seconds to play, but that's not how Boston Celtics coach Brad Stevens operates. Armed with a couple of timeouts and his whiteboard, Stevens did everything in his power to help his team rally on Wednesday night, and Boston clawed within four before Oklahoma City closed out a 122-118 triumph that snapped the Celtics' five-game win streak.

One of the plays Stevens drew up during that sequence was designed to get veteran power forward Brandon Bass an open look from beyond the 3-point arc. A year ago, this would have seemed preposterous considering Bass didn't make a single triple over the first eight seasons of his NBA career. But Stevens and his staff have encouraged Bass to extend his range, and he made his eighth of the season Wednesday when the team ran an after-timeout play made famous last year in Miami when Jeff Green hit a last-second 3-pointer to beat the Heat.

Boston's late charge only further illuminated what's come to light during the Celtics' recent surge: Stevens is one heck of an X's-and-O's coach, and the job he's done leading these Celtics back into a playoff race -- yes, even in the head-shaking Eastern Conference -- deserves your attention, particularly considering the perpetual roster change he's endured.

Regardless of what happens over the final 15 games of the season, but especially if 38-year-old Stevens can lead these Celtics into the postseason, the second-year helmsman deserves consideration in the coach of the year balloting.

No, we're not asking voters to give him their first- and second-place votes. Those can go to Atlanta's Mike Budenholzer and Golden State's Steve Kerr for the job they've done with the best teams in each conference. But the 120-some odd voters -- sportswriters and broadcasters across the league -- ought to strongly consider Stevens among the worthy contenders for their third-place votes (voters submit only their top 3).

Some Celtics fans will suggest that what Stevens has done in turning around the Celtics is far more impressive than what Kerr has done with a loaded roster, but it's hard to argue against a first-year coach whose team is projected to win 65 games (and the Hawks have far exceeded expectations in Budenholzer's second season).

The coach of the year award typically rewards success. You'd have to go back to Johnny Kerr in 1966-67 to find the only coach to win the award with a sub-.500 record (33-48, but the Chicago Bulls made the playoffs in their first year in the league). Old friend Doc Rivers did win the award back in 1999-2000 for guiding Orlando to a .500 record (and the Magic missed the playoffs).

Stevens deserves recognition for the job he's done while maximizing what he's been given to work with. This is a Celtics team that has endured 11 trades, utilized 22 game-day players and carried a total of 40 roster players this season. Stevens used to joke about needing management to email him a roster each morning to verify which players were still on the team, and then noted how, during one recent, late-game sequence, he had to look up from his whiteboard to double check who he had in his crunch-time lineup, which included a couple of recent additions.



Maddie Meyer/Getty Images


Despite consistent upheaval in the roster, Stevens has Boston poised to return to the playoffs.
No, despite trading away the team's two best individual players in Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green, and despite losing Jared Sullinger to a season-ending foot injury, these Celtics have just keep moving forward, and it's due in large part to their leader. It was in the aftermath of the Green trade in mid-January -- a time when most expected Boston to fall to the NBA cellar in a quest for a high lottery pick -- that this team seemed to find its identity and a young remaining core rallied together, buoyed in large part by some narrow victories on the road.

Since Jan. 22, the Celtics are 17-11. Boston had won 7 of 8 and 10 of 13 before Wednesday's loss in Oklahoma City. It currently owns the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference but is in a logjam with four teams competing for the final two spots.

Here's why Stevens deserves your consideration regardless of how things play out from here:

Exceeding expectations

Even in starting the season with a healthy Rondo, the Celtics were projected at a mere 27 wins by most Vegas sportsbooks. So imagine how low the expectations would have been for a team that would eventually lose Rondo, Green and Sullinger. Despite now having a starless roster (even in-season acquisition Isaiah Thomas is sidelined by a bruised back), the Celtics have far exceeded the expectations of even those who chug green Kool-Aid.

To verify that, we asked our friends at ESPN Stats & Information to compare how all 30 NBA teams have fared versus expectations (Vegas projections vs. current winning percentage). Here's what they found: At a projected 27 wins, Boston was expected to have a .329 winning percentage this season and, going into Wednesday's game, the Celtics owned a .455 winning percentage, or a plus-.126 difference.

That ranked Boston fourth in the NBA in terms of exceeding expectations, behind only the Hawks, Bucks and Warriors. You can certainly throw Jason Kidd's name in the mix for those third-place votes, but Milwaukee is in a bit of a late-season tailspin itself (with Boston only 2.5 games back of the sixth seed with two head-to-head battles remaining this season).

Value of Consistency

ESPN Stats & Information runs a measure called the Basketball Power Index that is a predictor of team performance while incorporating data such as game-by-game efficiency, strength of schedule, pace, number of days' rest, game location and preseason expectations. The Celtics climbed two spots to No. 22 in this week's update.

But here's the more interesting note: One thing BPI tracks is the consistency of a team in regards to its game-to-game variance in efficiency. The metric tends to suggest that teams with little variance are better coached teams, since they avoid large swings in efficiency.

Boston ranks second in consistency this season behind only ... the Los Angeles Lakers. We know what you're thinking: How can that be? Well, the Lakers have been consistently bad and their consistency is at the opposite end of the coaching/performance spectrum. The Celtics? They've been consistent, but that's included progressing in the right direction and winning the close games that evaded them earlier in the season.

Boston has played 39 clutch games (within five points in final five minutes) this season, fourth-most in the league, and are 16-23 (.410). But since Jan. 22, Boston has played a league-high 19 clutch games with an 11-8 mark (.579). What does that tell us? (1) The Celtics are consistently in games over the past two months, and (2) Those close games are tipping their way far more often than at the start of the year.

Drawing up a winner

Back to that Bass 3-pointer from Wednesday night. Stevens has proven to be a diagramming wizard while drawing up after-timeout plays that consistently lead to points. The Celtics currently rank sixth in the NBA in after-timeout efficiency, according to data logged by Synergy Sports (and are right on the heels of the Miami Heat).

Celtics players have admitted to being uncertain whether some of Stevens' creative plays will work when he's drawing them up, but you can't argue with the results. One big reason Boston has been pulling out some nail-biters in recent weeks is that Stevens' unconventional plays are being turned into points (take, for example, Bass' 3-pointer or an out-of-bounds alley-oop to Marcus Smart that helped them down the Grizzlies last week).

And that, in the bigger picture, is why Boston has had so much success recently. The group that is left now has bought in 100 percent to what Stevens is trying to do. These young Celtics trust in Stevens and believe he will put them in positions to thrive -- it's simply up to them to execute.

"I think it all starts with Brad," said Avery Bradley, the team's longest-tenured player. "Brad is getting us all together, having us believe in one another. We’re like a family out there. We’re a lot closer than we were, and it shows on the court."

Stevens and his crew have another tall task on Friday night when they visit the Spurs (and reigning coach of the year Gregg Popovich). Stevens raves about Popovich and what he's built in San Antonio. It's a mutual respect -- and a bond between Indiana natives -- as Popovich has raved about the job Stevens has done in putting Boston on a path back to being a contender.

Many Celtics fans are convinced that, one day, Stevens will add his name to that Red Auerbach trophy that goes to the Coach of the Year. For now, he deserves to simply be in the conversation of the league's best coaches for the 2014-15 season given what he's been able to do with these Celtics.



bob
MY NOTE:  Brad deserves votes for COY, and he will get some, but he has almost no chance of receiving enough to win unless Atlanta crashes and burns early in the playoffs.  He has a shot, albeit a tiny one, of beating out Kerr because Steve Kerr started with a team that was pretty much already built.  GSW was already a good team when he took over, he has just made them great.  Brad's job was significantly harder than either of those two, but W-L records weigh heavily in these decisions.



.

Although Kerr is a rookie coach he is far from being wet behind the ears in the league..

13 years as a player
next 5 as an NBA broadcast analyst
next 4 as GM in Phoenix
then a couple more as an analyst again
now a coach...

So he's be around the NBA for nearly 24 years.

Stevens..... less than 24 months

beat

Bob,

I think coach of the year is a regular season award, like MVP, defensive player of the year, and so on. What a team does in the playoffs doesn't factor into it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Coach_of_the_Year_Award

The sportswriters who vote for the award include a first, second, and third place on their ballots. Kerr and Budenholzer are the frontrunners, but I can see Stevens picking up some third place votes.

So far, Budenholzer seems like the logical choice since Atlanta was only 38-44 last season and has largely the same roster this season, though Al Horford was out for most of last season. Jason Kidd deserves some votes for getting the Bucks, who were 15-67 last season, to .500 this season. Kevin McHale has done a pretty good job with Houston, currently third in the really tough West, despite Dwight Howard being essentially non-existent.

By the way, the winner of the COY award receives, fittingly, the Red Auerbach trophy.

Outside, I'm sure you're correct about the regular season provision.

Since only one (end-of-playoffs) award really means anything to me, I view the others as nice but no big deal.  I'm just increasingly glad that Brad is now in the NBA and the Celtics have him.  Sort of reminiscent of the famous line used to promote Clark Gable's post-war return to Hollywood in a movie called, "Adventure" with Greer Garson.  The line was, "Gable's back, and Garson's got him."  The one difference is that the movie was a box office bust, while I hope the Celtics are going in the opposite direction.

Sam