Has Danny Ainge Been Predominantly Lucky Or Good In Rebuilding Celtics?

cowens/oldschool wrote:

steve3344 wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:and drafting KO was brilliant

Just checking - what's your opinion on drafting Fab Melo?

I was okay with that pick as I wanted Melo too, thought he was gonna be a shot blocking force, as Sam pointed out nobody gets them all right, but to be wrong twice at the same position...?? as he was by being trigger shy on Gobert, well we know what Gobert is and is going to be and we know what this team lacks or needs.....as I said before with Gobert in the middle right now on this team and all those juicy first round picks, oh damn what might have been!!! That would have greatly made up for the Perk-Green fiasco.

Gobert's averaged 15.3 PTS and 13.3 REBs his last six games. He'll be a beast for a long time with his size, athleticism and quickness. What a find for the Jazz.

sam wrote:I did the same kind of exercise for Danny Ainge that I did for Red Auerbach.  Danny's initial pick for each year.  I didn't look up the names of future all-stars on whom he passed because (1) I was too lazy and someone else may want to do the work and (2) it wasn't necessary to make my point about Danny's draft picks.  As in the case of Red's list, and asterisk (*) indicates player whom I feel have made solid contributions to their teams.  Of course, many are still playing and their ultimate contributions are not yet known.  For example, a few years ago, I might not have credited Gerald Green with making a solid contribution, but I'd have to put him in that category now.

2003 Troy Bell (16)
2004 * Al Jefferson (15)
2005 * Gerald Green (18)
2006 * Randy Foye (7)
2007 * Jeff Green (5)
2008 J.R. Giddens (30)
2009 Lester Hudson (58)
2010 * Avery Bradley (19)
2011 * MarShon Brooks (25)
2012 * Jared Sullinger (21)
2013 * Kelly Olynyk (13)
2014 * Marcus Smart (6)

So Danny has had 8 "reasonable contributors" in 11 years—a 73% "hit" rate compared with Red's 50% under more favorable selection circumstances (Red averaged the 13th pick, while Danny has averaged the 21th pick—or, if one wishes to exclude the initial pick of 2009 (which was 58th), then Danny has averaged the 21st pick in the other 10 years and has an 80% batting average in those 10 selections.

Does this prove Danny and his minions are better draft handicappers than Red?  No, but it does suggest that those who bleat about Danny's bad drafting by selecting some of the lower choices (which are REALLY crap shoots) need a good perspective transplant.

Sam

I wouldn't give an asterisk to 3 players, Gerald Green, was a bust for years finally got in a rotation with Suns, like his 6th or 7th team, Randy Foye, he never played for us, and has had a marginal career at best, and Marshon Brooks who also didn't play for us and has done nothing in this league.

steve3344 wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:

steve3344 wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:and drafting KO was brilliant

Just checking - what's your opinion on drafting Fab Melo?

I was okay with that pick as I wanted Melo too, thought he was gonna be a shot blocking force, as Sam pointed out nobody gets them all right, but to be wrong twice at the same position...?? as he was by being trigger shy on Gobert, well we know what Gobert is and is going to be and we know what this team lacks or needs.....as I said before with Gobert in the middle right now on this team and all those juicy first round picks, oh damn what might have been!!! That would have greatly made up for the Perk-Green fiasco.

Gobert's averaged 15.3 PTS and 13.3 REBs his last six games.  He'll be a beast for a long time with his size, athleticism and quickness.  What a find for the Jazz.

hes gonna be DPoY at some point real soon and his blocked shots avg since he became the starter leads the league, if he was on this team they'd be comparing him to Bill Russell....and everyone would be calling Ainge a genius.

Cow, as you may or may not have noticed, I SPECIFIED above that I was reflecting on how players picked by Danny performed—whether or not it was for the Celtics.

I pretty much went by whether players became rotation players at some point, and I used the same criteria for Red and Danny.  Cross Brooks off your list if you like.  It won't change my findings.  As for Gerald Green, in his three most recent years, he has played at least 60 games, played at least 18 mpg, and averaged more than 11 ppg.  That's a rotation player in my book, even if he was a late bloomer.  As for Randy Foye, he didn't need to play for the Celtics in order to become a rotation player; and eight consecutive years of averaging between 10 and 16 ppg makes him a rotation player in my book.  Words like "marginal" are pretty meaningless because they can be used to try to put an unfavorable slant on something that's pretty favorable.

Instead of trying to chip away at details, you might try focusing on my point, which is that—on a statistical basis—Danny Ainge has actually bettered Red's record, despite operating in a 30-team league an having, on average, lower picks to deal with.

As I said above, I don't believe anyone was better than Red at player evaluation—especially in terms of the sheer quality of his picks who lasted.  But nitpicking about the credentials of this or that player doesn't address my overall point about Danny, which is that he has been vastly better at drafting than your couple of cherry picked exceptions to his rule would suggest.

Sam

Fundamentally Ainge has done a great job rebuilding. But he is only 35 - 40% complete, and there is a ways to go to the road of banner #18.

But let us qualify what rebuilding means to me. He has accumulated a whole bunch of draft choices, shed salaries, and drafted well with the likes of Marcus Smart and Young...who still has to be evaluated next year.

He also has acquired some nice role players to add to the bench moving forward such as Zeller, Crowder, Thomas and Turner. Those players will begin to formulate the second unit that can bring energy to a game. However, the first unit needs an overhaul with a rim protecting defense minded center, power forward, small forward and point guard.

The first unit can begin to take shape through the draft and free agency and or trades with some involving some second unit players and perhaps some current first unit players and drafted players. Bradly is the only keep on the first team.

I believe we are half and some luck in the draft, free agency and trades we could be a force next year.

112288

112288

112288 so are you saying we need a new starting 5?

sam wrote:Cow, as you may or may not have noticed, I SPECIFIED above that I was reflecting on how players picked by Danny performed—whether or not it was for the Celtics.

I pretty much went by whether players became rotation players at some point, and I used the same criteria for Red and Danny.  Cross Brooks off your list if you like.  It won't change my findings.  As for Gerald Green, in his three most recent years, he has played at least 60 games, played at least 18 mpg, and averaged more than 11 ppg.  That's a rotation player in my book, even if he was a late bloomer.  As for Randy Foye, he didn't need to play for the Celtics in order to become a rotation player; and eight consecutive years of averaging between 10 and 16 ppg makes him a rotation player in my book.  Words like "marginal" are pretty meaningless because they can be used to try to put an unfavorable slant on something that's pretty favorable.

Instead of trying to chip away at details, you might try focusing on my point, which is that—on a statistical basis—Danny Ainge has actually bettered Red's record, despite operating in a 30-team league an having, on average, lower picks to deal with.

As I said above, I don't believe anyone was better than Red at player evaluation—especially in terms of the sheer quality of his picks who lasted.  But nitpicking about the credentials of this or that player doesn't address my overall point about Danny, which is that he has been vastly better at drafting than your couple of cherry picked exceptions to his rule would suggest.

Sam

didn't know Foye had those kinds stats, I'm not a real stat guy, the few times I saw Foye play he didn't do anything for me. Alot of times GM's draft for other teams when they have a prearranged deal in place, I think Foye was one of those agreements/arrangements, if you want to give Danny credit for Foye go ahead, its your board.

Sam Danny Ainge made one great move/trade and Kevin McHale was as responsible for that move as much as Danny IMHO. He had one decent draft, Big Al and Tony Allen and Delonte in 04. Big Al was good enough to be the centerpiece for the KG trade. Avery Bradley and Sully were good picks, but I agree with you that its questionable at best whether they are good enough to be starters on a contending team. Ainge has never drafted an all star or HoF player.

Please don't compare Danny to Red as he couldn't hold Reds.....

Cowen,

Outside of Bradley ....the answer is yes.  Our starting 4 out of 5 will become our bench in the future.  

112288

112288 wrote:Cowen,

Outside of Bradley ....the answer is yes.  Our starting 4 out of 5 will become our bench in the future.  

112288

if we had a Gobert type of presence at the 5, he could cover up alot of weaknesses, make the earthbound Sully much more a beast.

what do you think of Smart, your taking AB over Smart at the 2?

Cowans,

The problem with Sully is he cannot play above the rim, he is not fast and due to his advanced weight, cannot run the floor for 30+ minutes which is Steven's coaching style.

The only benefit that Sully has with his size is he is able to get spacing to get shots off but the older he gets the more problems I see cropping up with him. He does have soft hands and a nice touch around the rim. If he was 30-40 pounds lighter, he would be a super star verses a good player.

As far as Smart goes, he is too early in the learning curve of the NBA and his own game to take over for Bradley. Let him work on his shooting and other parts of playing defense and he'll be not only a starter but an all star.

Do not be surprised if Bradley gets packaged in a much larger deal or for that matter to move up in the draft to get Stein. No one on the Celtics are untouchable at this point in time.

112288

Cow,
I'd argue that DA's second great move was the deal with BKN. Obviously, it hasn't brought banner #18, yet, but it has symptoms to do so and definitely put the team on the path to get it (or more).

AK

cowens/oldschool wrote:Sam Danny Ainge made one great move/trade and Kevin McHale was as responsible for that move as much as Danny IMHO. He had one decent draft, Big Al and Tony Allen and Delonte in 04. Big Al was good enough to be the centerpiece for the KG trade. Avery Bradley and Sully were good picks, but I agree with you that its questionable at best whether they are good enough to be starters on a contending team. Ainge has never drafted an all star or HoF player.

Please don't compare Danny to Red as he couldn't hold Reds.....

1.  Trades don't happen unless ownership approves.  Even if McHale did want to trade Garnett to Boston for "old school ties" Paul Taylor had to approve it. McHale is the coach in Houston. Daryl Morey, who used to work for Danny, is the GM in Houston. Danny wanted Omer Asik. They traded him instead to NOP. So, despite having not one but two people with relationships with Danny it doesn't appear like that wasn't enough to make lightning strike twice. Why? Maybe because the first lightning strike isn't as much of a sure thing as you think.

2.  KG said he didn't want to go to Boston.  That changed after Danny traded for Ray Allen.  KG then saw that we were just one player, him, away from competing for a championship and relented.  Kevin McHale couldn't get KG to agree to the trade before the Ray Allen trade and Kevin McHale didn't have anything to do with the Ray Allen trade.  That was all Danny.  No Ray Allen, no KG.  No KG, no #17. Period.

As far as not drafting a single all-star or future HOFer, when did Danny draft high enough to have a legit shot at one?  If stinking the league up is worth it to get a high draft pick then when did the Celtics stink it up so bad they had a shot at drafting a potential future all-star or HOFer?  The answer, 2007, the year he used that #5 pick to get Ray Allen. No Ray Allen, no KG. No KG, no #17. Period. Which would you rather have? A #5 pick who may someday, possibly, conceivably become an all-star or future HOFer or a perennial all-star and lock for the HOF and a championship?

The draft is a way to build a team. It is also a crap shoot (see Beasley, Michael; Olawakandi, Michael; Turner, Evan; Robinson, Thomas; Bennett, Anthony). If you're not going to give Danny credit for good drafting, then why wouldn't you give him credit for using his #5 pick to get a sure thing in Ray Allen?

You don't like Danny, I understand, but at least give him credit for what he has done. Regardless of what McHale wanted or didn't want, did or didn't do, he needed Danny to get Ray Allen for that deal to happen and Danny did that, not McHale.



bob


.

Hi,
Speaking about DA and luck, I'd argue that the lack thereof, aka 2 broken knees, kept Celtics from #18 and 19.

AK

Instead of laying it off all on Danny, perhaps we need to lay it off on Doc where Doc could not get out of the players drafted by Danny the results needed to win.

I think Doc is terrible when it comes to coaching new young talent.  He is only good as the All Star talent that he has on the team. And let's not forget that Tibbs made the Celtics defense and it was the defense that made the team successful and lead to the success that they had offensively!

112288

Who are all these young players miscoached by Doc Rivers  who became stars after getting out from under his thumb?

Cow, my posting as a member has nothing to do with my being a founder of the board, and I deeply resent the implication of your statement that something I might post as a member carries weight only because "it's my board" and not because of any credibility I might have as a knowledgeable basketball fan.  If I post as a moderator, you (of all members) damn well know i'm posting as a moderator.  Frankly, I work my ass off to maintain separation of my personal posts from my moderating responsibilities.  And loose remarks like yours aren't helpful.

This is not "my board."  It belongs to all of us, and I try to make every effort to consult with board members on important policy issues because the forum is intended to be a democracy.  I won't be on here a lot longer, and whose board will it be then?  The answer is that, whoever might be given administrative control, it will still be a democracy.

I can't help it that you feel you're "not a stats guy."  One doesn't have to have a statistics background to take 60 seconds and google (in this case) "Randy Foye Reference" to get his year-by-year lifetime stats and make sure your statement is correct.  That's not "being a stats guy."  It's a matter of improving the credibility of your posting.

Sam

This is DA's 2nd rebuild. He got pretty decent results the first time around after the Celtics had wallowed in mediocrity and worse for most of a decade and a half.

DA has gathered many as yet untapped assets, some possible keeper players and a terrific coach near the end of year two. Let's see if he can reap what he has sown.

Sloop John,

If all the younger players performed and made the playoffs in 2007 rather then have a 24 - 58 won/loss record, Danny does not make that trade for KG and Ray Allen period. The Celtics would have pointed to a successful rebuilding plan. It was a desperate move by Danny to trade all those players and draft choices for KG and RA because his and Doc's ass were on the line and probably would have been fired in the following year.

How about Al Jefferson, and our pick that turned into Jeff Green, and Delante West.

Doc never knew how to coordinate young talent to perform in an organized unit like Stevens to his credit after 1.5 years as an NBA coach has done. Doc had years of NBA coaching experience with Orlando and then with Boston before the disaster 2006-2007 season.

112288

112288

So, it's the argument that the Celtics would have been contenders with the players they already had instead of bringing in KG, Allen, House, Posey, etc.

We'll never know.  I thought you were talking about the young 'uns that came through after DA put together a contender.



But with the exception of Jefferson, notwithstanding that he has been traded twice since leaving, the players DA shipped out haven't exactly burned up the league. Is West still in the league?  How about Gomes?

And Doc played these guys.  They weren't buried on the bench.  DA and Doc knew they were giving up talented players to bring in players that could turn the team into contenders.

As for Jeff Green, DA obviously loved him--he did trade Perk to get him.  How did Jeff Green do after Doc used him so poorly?

That year before title #17 was hard to take. Eighteen straight loses. Not many coaches survive after a season like that. But DA knew what he had in Doc. Indeed, one of DA's first moves was to get Doc as coach. He then proceeded to tear down a team that was at best an early playoff exit to build a champion.

Some times you have to take a step back to move forward. Sort of like what DA is again doing. We'll see if he can reap all the assets he's planted.

In answer to the question, has DA been good or lucky, I say mostly good. We'll know more by next season. I think his best pick was Brad. I didn't like the KG, RA deals when they were announced (because I thought the strategy was short-sighted); later I quietly recanted and withdrew my application for GM.
This time around, the rebuild is centered on trading established and aging talent for draft picks. Higher draft picks are likely to be better, yet the team is playing over its head, minimizing chances for this strategy to succeed. Still, it's hard to complain that the coach is brainy, maybe inspirational, and the newer players are usually striving hard. I know this is less than coherent, but I freely admit I've found it hard to mourn any of the recent losses that give us a better shot at a lottery player. After years of being screwed by the ping-pong balls I think we're due for an ace. In any case, I'm going to get league pass next year. Hawk

We don't have many polls with such a lopsided result.  Obviously, many of the "Good" votes have had qualifiers attached to them—mot notably the fact that the complete evidence hasn't yet unfolded.  And I suspect there were at least a couple of potential "Lucky" votes that weren't posted for one reason or another.  But, overall, it seems like a fairly appreciative endorsement of the direction in which Danny has gone so far in the rebuilding process.

And maybe we should try to get a board Royalty fromLeague Pass for Hawk's upcoming membership.

Sam

Sloop John,

No one ever said they would be fighting for a title with the personnel they had so do not inject words and suggestions when that is farther from what I said. I said Doc could not produce good results with the team he was given to coach. Nothing about titles.

Lets look at realsville, Danny's rebuilding plans as he implemented them when he took control as GM would have been more acceptable by management and would have been easier to accept by Danny if the team was improving and winning as a team and making the playoffs.

Danny made a very radical move by blowing up what he originally created because Doc was not producing results with the personnel he was coaching. He was forced to blow it up because he was under pressure by management to produce a winning team.............I said winning not title team.

In my opinion, Doc was more at fault for not getting the young team to play as a cohesive unit and win, not Danny.

112288

Actually I agree with 112288, that 06-07 team was not as bad as their record, Doc did a real piss poor lousy job with that team, he never played Perk and Jefferson together enough, the few times he did, they looked great together and had alot of serious potential, in other words they could give opposing teams alot of problems. As the season wore on it was depressing seeing us get bullied on inside as Doc like using Gomes alot as the 4. Well as soon as he got traded, whenever I saw Gomes play he was always at the 3 for obvious reasons. He also started Telfair and gave him too much playing time when everytime he was in, Rondo showed so much speed and electricity that all members on the board loved the kid. The starting lineup should have been Pierce, Big Al, Perk, TA or Delonte and Rondo, with Wally, Gomes and Telfair coming off the bench. That should have been the teams lineup and guarantee we would have had a much better record.

"No one ever said they would be fighting for a title with the personnel they had so do not inject words and suggestions when that is farther from what I said. I said Doc could not produce good results with the team he was given to coach. Nothing about titles."

Sorry.  I thought that you were talking about contending for titles.  I didn't know you were just talking about how Doc sucks and can contend for titles only with great players.

"Lets look at realsville, Danny's rebuilding plans as he implemented them when he took control as GM would have been more acceptable by management and would have been easier to accept by Danny if the team was improving and winning as a team and making the playoffs."

DA's rebuilding plan was to win titles.  It was painful when he took over and the first thing he did was get rid of Jimmy O'Brien who had taken basically the same roster Pitino had and made the playoffs, including an EC finals.  It was also painful to watch DA tear down the team as they went from a middle of the road playoff team to collection of assets to be dealt if the opportunity came.

Some how I don't think that DA was under pressure from management to maintain the team as one that made the playoffs but had no realistic chance of actually taking the title.  You don't think that ownership carefully interviewed DA about the path he planned to take before signing him on?

It's a painful process for us fans.  But sometimes it is necessary to take a step or even several steps back in order to have a real shot down the road at the big prize.

I like DA because he is about winning championships. It would have been easy for him to keep Pierce and KG and have a team that would have had early playoff exit as its ceiling. Instead he blew it up again and started again the painful process of getting a contender together.

No assurance that he'll succeed again but I do agree with his goal.