A Good Breakdown of the Financial Side

https://www.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/comments/3cf1jl/what_to_watch_for_from_the_celtics_front_office/



What to watch for from the Celtics' front office in the next few weeks (Signings schedule and notes) (self.bostonceltics)


submitted 2 hours ago by dangercart



Tomorrow (July is the last day of the league's moratorium period. During the past week the league has been completing their annual audit and doing the calculations for the salary cap. Earlier projections set the cap at $67.1M but the rumor is that the league fell short on their obligations for total salaries last season which will result in an increase in the 2015-16 cap to around $69M. For this post I'm just using a $69M cap but it will most likely be slightly different from that. Most player transactions cannot be made official during the moratorium so all the news you've been hearing is agreed to, but not actually signed yet.

On Thursday (July 9) the moratorium will lift and all these deals can start officially going through. Here's a primer on what to expect on July 9, and why some things will be made official right away while others wait a while.


Likely July 9 Activities

Renouncements
We'll give up our Bird/Early/Non Rights to our free agents except Jonas Jerebko and Jae Crowder; most of our rights are for players who have been out of the NBA for years
We might also hold onto Luigi Datome's and Shavlik Randolph's rights just because there's no harm in having them unless we make another move that requires cap space a
All of the TPEs will be renounced as they carry cap holds and you can't be both under the cap and have exceptions


Signings
Jonas Jerebko's cap hold is $8.55M but his salary will be ~$5M so we'll process his signing right away
Amir Johnson needs to be signed from cap space so his signing might (see below) be processed right away
I suspect Jordan Mickey will be signed out of cap space so that may also happen on July 9 b


Waive
Phil Pressey's contract becomes guaranteed on July 15 but my guess is that to give him the best chance of catching on with another team we'll waive him on July 9 c; he's probably out in Vegas schmoozing and isn't dressing because getting hurt would be really bad for him right now

Player Salary
Amir Johnson $12,000,000
Gerald Wallace $10,105,855
Avery Bradley $7,730,337
Isaiah Thomas $6,912,869
Jonas Jerebko $5,000,000
Marcus Smart $3,431,040
Evan Turner $3,425,510
Tyler Zeller $2,616,975
Jared Sullinger $2,269,260
Kelly Olynyk $2,165,160
James Young $1,749,840
Chris Babb $947,276
Jordan Mickey $850,000
TOTAL 59,204,122
Metric Total
Current Contracts: $59,204,122
Amount Over Cap: -6,137,030
Amount Over Tax Line: -24,295,878
Tax Bill: 0
Total Team Spend: 59,204,122
Roster Count: 13
Status: Below Cap

Having taken these steps the team will have 13 players on the roster (12 guaranteed plus Chris Babb non-guaranteed) plus Jae Crowder's restricted free agent rights and the draft rights to Terry Rozier and RJ Hunter. Having dropped down to ~$18M in cap space at one point, the team will have ~$6M if they sign Johnson and Mickey that day.


July 9 Indicators

If we officially sign Jae Crowder and/or Terry Rozier and RJ Hunter on July 9 it means Ainge thinks the work is basically done for the offseason. There's no real reason to do this, and Ainge isn't one to close off avenues unnecessarily, so I don't expect they'll make the signings official until a bit later.

If we do not make the Amir Johnson signing official right away I would watch for a trade involving something like Brendan Haywood's non-guaranteed contract coming in so that it can fit and then be waived before signing Johnson.

If we do not waive Phil Pressey on July 9 it could mean a variety of things. It could be that he still has a chance to make the team or that there's a trade brewing that requires his contract. It could also just mean that Ainge is waiting until July 15 to make the decision but Pressey has been a good soldier and if we aren't going to keep him it would be nice to let him hit the market ASAP.

At any point if we stretch or trade dump Gerald Wallace it means a significant move is imminent but it doesn't look likely at the moment


Potential Interim Moves

After the July 9 moves but before Crowder and the 1st round pick contracts become official we can use that open cap space. You can come up with your own targets for that space but keep in mind that even without Chris Babb, Phil Pressey, and Marcus Thornton (but with Gerald Wallace and Jordan Mickey) we already have 15 players on the roster. Historically Danny has liked to only carry 14 into the season but that's not a hard-and-fast rule.

For a while I've thought that trading Evan Turner to Cleveland for Brendan Haywood and the draft rights to Cedi Osman made sense for both teams. The Cavs seem to be aiming higher (though I'd rather have Turner and a $7M TPE than Jamal Crawford and a $5M TPE) but it's still a logical move. It would be easier to do this move before singing Amir Johnson, as noted above.

If we want to bring in a true wing and Denver wants to dump Lawson but have veteran PG cover for Emmanuel Mudiay then Evan Turner could be a move for them, as he played that role for us and Marcus Smart last season. A trade of Turner and possibly the MIN pick (likely to convert to two 2nd round picks) for Wilson Chandler ($7M expiring contract) could work for both sides.

Ainge could also look to make an additional free agent signing in this period, most likely for a restricted free agent that we've been keeping quiet on, but it seems unlikely with the current roster composition.


Post July 9 Activities

Once any currently unknown activities are done using the floating cap space (or none are made and we go forward as-is) the following steps can be completed:


Signings

Jae Crowder will sign a five year contract for $35M d
Terry Rozier will sign his rookie deal for 120% of scale e
RJ Hunter will sign his rookie deal for 120% of scale e

After all of the signings are done we project to be right around the cap but to have the Room Exception worth $2.814M that can still be used later
Waive

At some point before the season starts Chris Babb will either be traded or waived but unlike Pressey we may wait a bit longer as he was signed (and collected ~$50k) specifically to use in a trade if one came up


Holds

If we do nothing beyond what's announced that requires cap space we'll probably end up still having the rights (and the cap holds) for Luigi Datome and Shavlick Randolph if either/both choose to start the season in an overseas league


Rookie Options

Ainge has until October 31 to pick up the fourth year option on Kelly Olynyk's rookie scale deal; this will definitely happen unless he's traded
Ainge has until October 31 to pick up the third year option on Marcus Smarts's and James Young's rookie scale deals; this will definitely happen unless they're traded


Rookie Extensions

Ainge has until October 31 to sign extensions to the rookie scale deals of Jared Sullinger and/or Tyler Zeller but I do not expect either player to come to an agreement and both will likely become restricted free agents in 2016

Active Player Salary
Amir Johnson $12,000,000
Gerald Wallace $10,105,855
Avery Bradley $7,730,337
Jae Crowder $7,000,000
Isaiah Thomas $6,912,869
Jonas Jerebko $5,000,000
Marcus Smart $3,431,040
Evan Turner $3,425,510
Tyler Zeller $2,616,975
Jared Sullinger $2,269,260
Kelly Olynyk $2,165,160
Terry Rozier $1,824,360
James Young $1,749,840
R. J. Hunter $1,148,640
Jordan Mickey $850,000
TOTAL 68,229,846
Free Agent Player Rights Hold
Luigi Datome Early Bird $2,275,000
Shavlick Randolph Early Bird $947,276
Open Exception Value
Room Mid-Level $2,814,000
Metric Total
Current Contracts: $68,229,846
Amount Over Cap: 2,452,122
Amount Over Tax Line: -15,270,154
Tax Bill: 0
Total Team Spend: 68,229,846
Roster Count: 15
Status: Non-Taxpayer Above Cap


Flexibility

Rookie scale offers to Terry Rozier and RJ Hunter must be submitted by July 15
Gerald Wallace can only be stretched up until August 31 as any release after that will have his full salary counted on this year's cap sheet
Chris Babb isn't going to last on the roster into the season but if he did his contract doesn't become guaranteed until January 10th


Contract Notes

a Luigi Datome and Shavlick Randolph: Both of these players may go overseas but theoretically either one could return to the NBA at some point so if we don't need the cap space tied up by their holds there's no reason to renounce them.

b Jordan Mickey: It's normal for players drafted just outside the first round to receive contracts with guaranteed years. Signing these players with a small amount of cap space gives a nice bit of flexibility in contract structure. It's better to give a solid deal to them then to be stuck with a KJ McDaniels-type contract where you quickly lose control of their rights if they play well. We could use the RME or a minimum contract on Mickey but I suspect his contract will be done with cap space and look like this, with only the third year non-guaranteed:

Player 2015-16 Salary 2016-17 Salary 2017-18 Salary
Jordan Mickey $850,000 $888,250 $1,014,746

c Phil Pressey: Waiving Phil clears his whole salary off the cap because, as we would still have more than 12 slots accounted for, it does not get replaced with an "incomplete roster charge."

d Jae Crowder: I'm unsure of how Crowder's contract will be structured. We could set it up with maximum annual raises which gives the most flexibility this season and next season but pushes salary into the last two years. It could be set up to decline in salary which would take up more space this year (good if we aren't planning on using more space anyway) but cost a bit next year in cap space (bad if the plan is to try to make giant moves then). For these example, I just use a straight $7M/year but the options are as follows:

Crowder Contract Type 2015-16 Salary 2016-17 Salary 2017-18 Salary 2018-19 Salary 2019-20 Salary
Max Raises $5,785,124 $6,392,562 $7,000,000 $7,607,438 $8,214,876
Max Decline $8,860,759 $7,930,380 $7,000,000 $6,069,620 $5,139,241
Flat $7,000,000 $7,000,000 $7,000,000 $7,000,000 $7,000,000

e Terry Rozier and RJ Hunter: A 1st round pick can sign for anywhere between 80-120% of their scale salary but the Celtics have always given 120% and have no reason not to this year.



bob



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