What David Lee brings to the Celtics this season

http://www.celticsblog.com/2015/8/13/9139779/what-david-lee-brings-to-the-celtics-this-season



What David Lee brings to the Celtics this season
By Jeff Nooney on Aug 13, 2015, 9:48a 21






Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
With his scoring, rebounding, and passing abilities, David Lee should add a nice wrinkle to Boston's offense.


At first glance, David Lee appears to be a player in rapid decline. Last season was his worst since his rookie year in terms of points, rebounds, and minutes. An early injury cost him his starting spot, and the emergence of Draymond Green kept him on the bench. With one year left on his contract the Warriors dumped him to save money. But it's not time to write him off just yet. David Lee can still play basketball at a high level, and the Celtics will benefit from it this season.

Inside scoring is the most obvious skill he brings to the table. Per Basketball Reference, Lee made 69% of his shots within 3 feet of the basket last year. This is an excellent number, and the second highest of his career. Lee won't overpower most opponents with his size, but he has nice touch around the basket. He can finish with both hands, and absorb contact. He can put the ball on the floor and drive to the hoop too, especially if has some space. This makes him a nice pick and roll option. The combination of Lee and Isaiah Thomas could lead to some good scoring opportunities this season.

He can shoot a bit from midrange, but he's been moving away from those shots over the last few years. His numbers really dropped off in 2015, so that trend might be for the best. The Celtics have plenty of shooting big men as is, so they could use a forward that stays closer to the paint.

The other prominent feature of his game is rebounding. Although his per game numbers went down last season, his per 36 minutes numbers stayed consistent with his past years in Golden State. Lee actually would have been one of Boston's best rebounders in 2015. His Rebound % numbers were dead even with Jared Sullinger, the top rebounder for the Celtics. Boston was just average last year in rebounding, so the addition of Lee will help. A few extra possessions here and there from offensive boards can add up over the course of a season.

He's competent playmaker too. Lee's passing ability is often forgotten due to his scoring and rebounding numbers. But, he can make some quick decisions that will fit right in with Brad Stevens' offense. Out of the pick and roll, Lee has the vision to make some crafty plays.



This play against Memphis is an example of that. He receives the pass from Curry and whips the ball over to Iguodala in the corner for a three. Now, Steph Curry has a lot to with this. The defensive attention he draws creates more space for everyone. But Lee's decision making shouldn't be overlooked here. Lee doesn't force a shot or turn it over. He takes advantage of a defense that's stretched out of position, and it results in a wide open corner three.

Even outside of pick and roll sets, Lee is an effective facilitator on offense. This play is a bit of a mess, but there's something to be taken from it.



The pass isn't perfect by any means. But it's a clever one and it shows his offensive awareness. The process is the important thing to look for here. Lee sees his teammate trapped by the double team, so he cuts to space. He then delivers the pass almost immediately after catching the ball. Knowing where the open player will be is a valuable skill, especially in a motion heavy offense like Boston's. Lee can act as an outlet when the play breaks down, and start a secondary action to create a scoring chance for his team. With the defense scrambling around, Lee actually scores a nice put-back basket to finish the play. That doesn't happen without a nifty pass to keep the offense moving.

The knock on Lee has always been defense. At 32 years old, nobody is expecting a career renaissance on that end of the floor. It will be an issue for Brad Stevens, but it's not a death sentence. Boston's defense was 14th in efficiency last year with Tyler Zeller as the only semblance of rim protection. The addition of Amir Johnson will help balance out Lee's subpar abilities. Zeller and Johnson won't be able to cover up for him like Andrew Bogut did, but Boston's defense should be able to survive with Lee on the floor.

If David Lee can play at the level he did last year, then his impact on offense will outweigh the negatives on defense. He can be a steadying presence for a team that lacked a consistent scoring threat at times last season. He might even impart some veteran wisdom on the team. Maybe he convinces Kelly Olynyk to cut down on those increasingly infuriating pump fakes, or inspires Marcus Smart to drive the basket more. Worst case scenario everyone gets Chipotle. Considering they acquired him for basically nothing (sorry Gerald Wallace), that's a pretty solid deal.



bob
MY NOTE:  For one thing, I disagree with his opening sentence.  David Lee does NOT look like a player in rapid decline.  This author apparently didn't watch the Finals.  What David Lee DOES look like is a player that was replaced by a player coming into his own and is now considered one of the top players at his position in the league, and that his coach decided he wanted speed over inside game.  There are a lot of reasons for a player not playing much that have nothing to do with his ability to play.

He's an undersized big man who is VERY competent in the paint. We need more of those (competent in the paint, not undersized). He can teach Kelly how to play bigger than he does now. Sully could also learn how to finish down low without getting blocked as often as he does.

Knowing Danny, I will almost guarantee the end-of-year's roster will not look like it does today (ok, that was easy since we still have 16 guaranteed contracts) so who knows how things will actually pan out, but David Lee will be an asset, I have no doubt. In fact, I anticipate a lot of grumbles on this board about how Brad is playing Lee too much and not giving the kids enough minutes for their development (Mickey, in particular, comes to mind). That's how much of an asset I expect him to be, I expect him to earn minutes you don't expect him to deserve today. And yeah, the price for him was extremely right.


.

Shades of Bill Cullen...

Both Lee and Johnson are solid veterans who happen to be on the decline.

Their contracts do not reflect a long term commitment as both of them could visit beantown for one year only. I think that both of them are assets that are just as likely to be traded.

We have talked about trading KO or Sullinger but think twice.

KO and Sully still have upside where as Lee and Johnson only have downside. Lee and Johnson should be able to help the Celtics but they are not elite level players. It is not like they deserve a starting spot. They are NOT upgrades over Sully and KO. They are rotations players at this point in their careers that add depth. Veteran depth is a good thing.

I have performed my usual flip flop on this.

If Sully is in shape he will be our starting PF not Johnson. If he is not in good shape then I would start KO.

dboss

dboss wrote:Both Lee and Johnson are solid veterans who happen to be on the decline.

Their contracts do not reflect a long term commitment as both of them could visit beantown for one year only.  I think that both of them are assets that are just as likely to be traded.

We have talked about trading KO or Sullinger but think twice.

KO and Sully still have upside where as Lee and Johnson only have downside.    Lee and Johnson should be able to help the Celtics but they are not elite level players.  It is not like they deserve a starting spot.  They are NOT upgrades over Sully and KO.  They are rotations players at this point in their careers that add depth.  Veteran depth is a good thing.

I have performed my usual flip flop on this.

If Sully is in shape he will be our starting PF not Johnson.  If he is not in good shape then I would start KO.  

dboss

Not sure why you are throwing Johnson in with Lee. The guy is 28, his body is not yet in decline. His numbers last year are almost the same as the previous 3 years (and he played slightly fewer minutes). As you say, he is not an elite level player, but he seems to be a guy who does the right things to the best of his ability. I can live with that.

I threw them in their because they are veteran Players that were recently signed to very short term deals

Take a closer look at Amir's numbers.  He is just another rotation player and according to this article he may in fact be on the decline

http://www.raptorshq.com/2015/5/26/8641415/toronto-raptors-amir-johnson-replacement-search

The point that I am making is that we have spent a lot of time prognosticating about trading Sully or Ko yet the two guys with just added have no long term future with the Celtics.  That is the reason why I threw Amir in there with Lee, age notwithstanding.

dboss

It's all about the team.

I understand all about the importance of the long-term view. But last year was a great example of how the Celtics can make a substantial leap during a given season (actually it was a half season) in terms of setting a pattern for their identity or style of play in the long run. Last year set what I hope will be a long-term pattern of disruptive, energetic defense; and Danny has made off-season acquisitions that have obviously been guided by that very defensive identity.

This year, I'd like to see the team step up the offense. Perhaps more emphasis on motion, spreading the floor, and reading-and-reacting...of maybe something else. But regardless of Brad's plans for the offense, I believe the experience of Lee and Johnson can help propel the Celts in the desired direction, even if David and Amir are only one-year guests.

The other side of the coin in terms of having little-to-no remaining upside is that David and Amir have mature games. They are what the are, and they both are experienced in how to leverage their strengths in order to outweigh their deficiencies. They don't have to focus on improving their games, so they can concentrate on assuming roles that will help enable Brad's offensive plans.

Clearly, Sully and Kelly will be necessarily involved in improving their respective games this season, which means it would be a stretch to expect them also to become instrumental in carving out a long-term direction for the team.

If Lee and/or Johnson are gone after the coming season, having a functional offensive system in place will make it easier for Danny to replace David and/or Amir with appropriate players.

From a related perspective, I believe that, whatever systems Brad puts in place looking toward the future, both the offensive and defensive component will benefit from having a bunch of agile big men. Neither Sully nor Kelly is particularly agile or is likely to become agile. If they're key Celtics big men of the future, I expect Brad is going to have to compromise his desired plans in order to accommodate the deficiencies of Sully and Kelly. Pending some miraculous improvement in the balance of pluses and minuses, they may be better trade bait than high-level future contributors.

Sam

I think that it is quite interesting that the author of this article believes that the Cs need an "inside" scoring threat, but did not mention Sullinger.

Sullinger is the inside scorer that the Cs need (and already have) except that he is allowed to roam the perimeter looking for his next three point shot.

Nothing against adding Lee as I am sure that he will be an asset this season.

Clyde,

That is interesting. Could it be that the author is writing off Sully as far as the Celtics are concerned? Or could he consider Sully's value as an inside scoring threat to be unreliable because of the percentage of the time he gets his shot blocked?

Sam

wide clyde wrote:I think that it is quite interesting that the author of this article believes that the Cs need an "inside" scoring threat, but did not mention Sullinger.

Sullinger is the inside scorer that the Cs need (and already have) except that he is allowed to roam the perimeter looking for his next three point shot.

Nothing against adding Lee as I am sure that he will be an asset this season.

sam and clyde,

Or maybe we could use more than one?


bob



.

I can't wait to see how Lee (and Johnson, for that matter) fit in to Brad's scheme. Having a player of Lee's caliber at the center spot will be a delight.

Johnson and Lee have something in common. I always thought both of them gave the Celtics a really rough time. Of course, I don't know for certain whether this is more of a commentary on Lee and Johnson or on the Celtics.

Sam

sam wrote:Johnson and Lee have something in common.  I always thought both of them gave the Celtics a really rough time.  Of course, I don't know for certain whether this is more of a commentary on Lee and Johnson or on the Celtics.

Sam

sam,

I've always been leery of the approach that says "he kills us everytime we play him, let's go get him!".  Just because they get up and play well against us doesn't mean they destroy other teams too.

David Lee has always killed us.  Even when KG was on him, he still killed us (the Knicks usually lost, but that wasn't Lee's fault).  However, David Lee is a 2x all-star.  Furthermore, he wasn't a starter on the all-star team either time, meaning he wasn't selected by hyper-partisan and myopic fans, he was selected by NBA coaches.  That's the Good HouseKeeping Seal of Approval, for me.  I know, living out where I do, that his decline of minutes last year was not a reflection of his abilities.  As a replacement for Wallace, the trade was a no-brainer for me.  Sure, that increases the logjam in the front court, but it's a dance to create a perfectly balanced roster, not a march. Maybe, in the case of the Boston Celtics, it's an Irish jig (and for the Wizards it'd be a Virginia Reel; for Los Spurs, salsa; Pacers, square dance; Mavericks, line dance...).

Amir, on the other hand, has never been an all-star.  He has always played well against us, in an underpraised way, but that's just us.  So, while I like Amir, he doesn't have that impramatur Lee has.  Since Amir was a free-agent signing I am very interested in seeing how Danny and Brad expect him to fit in.  

Bottom line:  both of them are rentals on, what amounts to, one-year contracts (Lee is in the last year of his contract and Amir is on a 1-and-1 with a team option).  If they are traded or kept to the end of the year isn't a big deal either way.  They'll free up salary cap next year, or be used in a sign-and-trade next year or they'll be traded this year. David Lee will bring experience we lost when we traded Rondo. I'm expecting/hoping Amir will run the floor quite well.


bob

Great post Bob.

Last season:

Zeller averaged 0.48 points and 0.25 rebound per minute of play.
Lee averaged 0.43 point and 0.29 rebound per minute of play.
Johnson averaged 0.35 point and 0.23 rebound per minute of play.

If, at the TSFKAC (tall slot formerly known as center), Zeller averaged 20 mpg, Lee averaged 18 mpg, and Johnson averaged 10 minutes, and if they maintained the points-per-minute they proved themselves capable of last season, the TSFKAC would produce 20.84 ppg (9.60 by Zeller, 7.74 by Lee, and 3.50 by Johnson) and 12.52 rebounds per game (5.00 by Zeller, 5.22 by Lee, and) 2.30 by Johnson). Not too shabby

And, yes, I realize that, of the three players, only Zeller played the TSFKAC exclusively last year; and it's probable that the majority of the points scored by the other two guys came at the OTSFKAPF (Other Tall Slot Formerly Known As Power Forward.  I use their figures from last season mainly to point out what can be missed by considering each player on his own when thinking about next season. It really is all about the team.

I also realize that I preempted guys like Sully and Young from putting in any time at TSFAC, which is why the word "hypothetical" is so important.

I'm really enjoying the new nomenclature, because it simplifies the game so much for someone of my age.

ITIGPOATN (I Think I'll Go Post On Another Thread Now.)

Sam

Bob,

There's a difference between observation and analysis. My point about Lee's and Johnson's performances against the Celtics is clearly "just sayin." I'm not so shallow that I'd use performances against Boston to project likely fortunes against other teams. I'm surprised you'd think I was that sloppy when it comes to analysis. As a matter of fact, Lee averaged fewer points against the Celtics last season than against any other team aside from Dallas. The difference between perception and reality.

Sam