NBA big men shooting 3s: Ranking who should and shouldn't try it

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25346357/big-men-shooting-3s-ranking-who-should-and-shouldnt-take-those-shots



NBA big men shooting 3s: Ranking who should and shouldn't try it
By Zach Harper | NBA writer

October 20, 2015 1:51 pm ET
 



"Can you imagine if he starts making 3s? It's over!"

There is this prevailing idea that any big man attempting to add the 3-point shot to his arsenal is doing his team a service. In the era of small ball, pace-and-space, and trying to get everybody to be a complete player, it's easy to trick yourself into believing any big man learning how to shoot 3-pointers is a good idea. A gigantic human developing the touch of a much smaller, skilled person sounds like an ideal basketball strategy, in theory.

In application, it's a much different thing. It's not always a good idea. Some guys waste possessions over the course of their careers because they want to prove they could've been a smaller pro ball player even if they hadn't received the genetics of Goliath. Let's take a look at some of the big men attempting to become floor-stretchers and whether or not it's actually a good idea moving forward.


Chris Bosh Tier: (This has a chance of actually working)

Cody Zeller, Charlotte Hornets: This is a baby steps situation for Zeller, as he actually hasn't started taking a bunch of 3-pointers this preseason. For his career, he took one 3-pointer in his rookie season and missed it. He took one 3 in his second season and knocked it down. Now he's entering his third season and Hornets coach Steve Clifford is talking about his team turning into a gatling gun of long distance shots. He says he feels comfortable with the development of Zeller's shot and wants him taking those in-rhythm opportunities this season.

So far in the preseason, it's worked out in limited attempts. In fact, he's just 3-of-4 from beyond the arc in six games, so he hasn't exactly turned into a Super Soaker out there. Last season, he knocked down 39 percent of open to wide-open shots beyond 10 feet. He's become a decent catch-and-shoot guy, but extending that range to 23 feet could take a couple of years. It's still something he should do.

Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks: This ... is a good idea, right? It's a bit early to start making proclamations about what Porzingis should be working on. From what we've seen in summer league and preseason, he looks to have some solid skills. He shoots the jumper well and has a smooth release. It's natural to start trying to find player comps, and some are as ambitious as a Dirk Nowitzki-type of big man. We probably need to pump the brakes there, but even with a president like Phil Jackson guiding his future, Porzingis stretching the floor is enticing.

In the preseason, he's made 3-of-7 (42.9 percent) from beyond the arc. You can't make scouting reports based on seven attempts, but it's an encouraging sign. As he was developing in Spain playing for Baloncesto Sevilla, Porzingis shot 43-of-137 (31.3 percent) over the years. That's not good but it's a start. Let em fly, Staps.

Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans: As soon as Alvin Gentry took the coaching job in New Orleans, he started talking about Davis extending his shooting range. In three years, Davis is 3-of-27 (11.1 percent) from beyond the arc. He was 1-of-12 last season, but his one 3-point make ended up helping decide the playoff tiebreaker over Oklahoma City. Without much of a 3-point shooting pedigree, is it a wise idea for Gentry to move his best big man away from the basket?

Davis is an extremely talented shooter. He shot 41.9 percent from 16-23 feet last season and his shooting stroke looks amazing. He's going to be a guy extending the spacing on the floor to the corner 3s as a catch-and-shoot option. Eventually, you'd like him to become a pick-and-pop threat from 3 like a Dirk or a Kevin Love. As for now, he was 44.3 percent on open and wide-open jumpers last year. He's started slowly in preseason, making 5-of-8 from deep.

He's not going to become Ryan Anderson this season, but he's eventually going to become a fully armed and operational battle station.


Drew Gooden, Washington Wizards: This is something that started to really show up last season for Gooden and the Wizards. Prior to playing in Washington, Gooden was a horrendous 3-point shooter for his career. He made 51-of-225 (22.7 percent) in 687 games. Those are numbers that make Josh Smith look like Ray Allen. Then something clicked as he became more of a veteran, role-playing presence with the Wizards and needed to find a niche. Two seasons ago, Gooden made 7-of-17 (41.2 percent) in 22 games.

This past season, Gooden played more and shot more from deep. He went 23-of-59 (39 percent) in 51 games during 2014-15. So far in the preseason, he's 8-of-19 from downtown. Gooden isn't going to be a high volume guy, but if Randy Wittman is serious about playing modern basketball, Gooden immediately becomes a pick-and-pop option for John Wall or in the second unit with Ramon Sessions. Gooden becoming a 3-point shooter this late in his career wouldn't even crack the list of weird things he's done. Remember the hair patch?


Rasheed Wallace Tier: (You're too talented not to take them)

Pau Gasol, Chicago Bulls: Gasol is one of the more skilled big men we've seen and he has an incredible touch around the basket and on his jumpers. He's a career 42.7 percent shooter from 16-23 feet and even made a ridiculous 47.7 percent of his midrange jumpers last season. He also started creeping out to the corner 3-point spots in Chicago to help space the floor for Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler. And it seemed to work nicely.

He didn't take a high volume; He was 12-of-26 from deep. But he was enough of a threat to make defenses second-guess whether or not they wanted to give him that corner 3. He was 11-of-21 from the corners, and with Fred Hoiberg as the 3-point-happy coach now, you can expect to see much more of this. Nineteen of his 3-point attempts were wide-open and he made 11 of them. Maybe Gasol even increases his 3-point shooting to close to one attempt per game, which would save him a bit from the physical play that has taken a toll on his body over the years.

Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks: Horford was a bad 3-point shooter last season -- his first full season of really starting to extend his range a bit. He only took 36 3s on the season and made 11 (30.6 percent). Even for a big man, you're not loving that percentage, especially with a center who has made over 49 percent of his 16-23 foot jumpers the last two years. We know Horford's jumper is pure; it's just a matter of extending it beyond 23 feet. I guess the concerning part of this for Horford is how bad he was on wide-open 3s.

He was just 8-of-30 (26.7 percent), but that's too small of a sample size to make him give up on it. In the preseason, we've seen some improvement with him going 5-of-11. If he were an inconsistent jump shooting big man, you'd tell him to plant himself on the low block and creep out to midrange. He can hit jumpers, though, so let him keep getting comfortable with the shot and see if a higher volume creates a more accurate rhythm for him.


Al Harrington Tier: (Make a career for yourself)

Anthony Bennett, Toronto Raptors: Much like NBA scouts and teams, we're still trying to figure out what Bennett is on a basketball court. He's too slow to be a small forward, but he might not be quick enough to take advantage of slower power forwards. The way to do that is by creating space, and the way for Bennett to create space on the floor is become a 3-point shooting threat. In his one year at UNLV, we saw a bit of this. He hit 37.5 percent of his 96 3-point attempts. It was a definite part of his game.

That's a shorter line, though, and the NBA 3-point shot might just be too far for him. The problem with judging that is he's been injured and out of shape his first two seasons. Now the former No. 1 pick finds himself on his third team in three years. He's just a 26.3 percent shooter so far from deep. He was 30.4 percent on 23 attempts last season. These aren't encouraging numbers, and yet many feel he should keep shooting them. He has to carve out a spot for himself in the league and becoming a stretch-4 might be the only way to do it.

Nearly half of his shot attempts (46.8 percent) came from 16-23 feet last season because Flip Saunders didn't want him taking them. He's 5-of-16 in preseason, which is a marginal improvement but it's an improvement. He'll either have to hit them here or he'll have to hit them overseas. But he's got to learn how to hit them.

Charlie Villanueva, Dallas Mavericks: Villanueva is a bit of an odd inclusion here because he's taken nearly 2,000 3-point attempts in his 10-year career. He's a pretty decent shooter, too, at 34.7 percent. Over the last two seasons, we've seen a very different shooter, though, taking an insane amount of 3-point shots. In his last season in Detroit, Villanueva took 11.2 3-pointers per 36 minutes and made just 25 percent of them. Last season in Dallas, he took 11.7 3-pointers per 36 minutes and hit an impressive 37.6 percent from downtown. Becoming that kind of weapon will turn him into a valuable role player.

He's 7-of-19 in five preseason games so far, and with the injuries to the Mavericks heading into the season, they need as many quality weapons as possible. Villanueva has a chance to play a lot of minutes early on and the way for him to stay on the court once this team starts showing some health is by being a big time 3-point shooter. It's perfect for what Rick Carlisle wants to do, so you'd like to see him replicate the success he had last season.


Josh Smith Tier: (Please stop taking those shots)

Josh Smith, Los Angeles Clippers: I don't know how many times we have to tell Smith to stop shooting 3s. We've been doing it for years and he keeps doing it. It got to the point in Atlanta and Detroit that you could audibly hear the collective soul of the fans in the arena dying when he'd start to wind up that catapult. He's historically a bad 3-point shooter. In fact if it weren't for Charles Barkley's 26.6 percent on 2,020 attempts, Smith would be the worst 3-point shooter in NBA history. He's made just 28.5 percent on 1,435 attempts, so he has the chance to catch Barkely's futility someday.

I know what you're thinking, Clippers fans. What if he's turned the corner? He hasn't. I know he shot 33 percent in his stint with Houston last year. Trust me, nothing's changed. I know he shot 38 percent for Houston in the playoffs last spring. It was a mirage in a desert of sadness. That land is too dry to bare fruit.


Jared Sullinger, Boston Celtics: I understand why Sullinger has fancied himself a shooter from downtown during his early career. He needs to find a way to stand out on the court and by trying to extend his range, he's attempting to create value on the court. Unfortunately for Sully, it's not working at all. He's made just 27.5 percent of his 397 attempts in three seasons. Of players who have taken at least 397 attempts from downtown in their first three years, he has the least accuracy in NBA history.

To his credit, he's only taken five 3s in five preseason games, so it's possible this is being ironed out of his game. Maybe as he gets into better shape consistently, it's an avenue the Celtics or his next team can explore again. For now, he shouldn't be shooting them.

Derrick Williams, New York Knicks: Based on his preseason play, this is a bit of a risky inclusion because Williams is shooting lights out for the Knicks. He's 8-of-17 from downtown in five games and is playing the best basketball we've seen out of him since he was an Arizona Wildcat. Sure, it's preseason and so none of this counts, but you at least like to see the confidence out of him with the way he's playing. I'm just being cautious with how much I buy into Williams as a born again shooter.

He's a 30.1 percent career shooter from deep. Last season, he was 33.3 percent on open and wide-open 3s, which is barely acceptable as an overall percentage and still well below league average. The reason people think Williams is a shooter is because he did it one year in college. His first year at Arizona he was just 4-of-16. His sophomore season, he went a ridiculous 42-of-74, which helped him become the No. 2 pick. Seventy-four attempts from the college line made him a "shooter," but 589 attempts from the NBA line have proven that to be incorrect. That's why I'm hesitant on believing in 17 preseason shots.

Kris Humphries, Washington Wizards: Apparently everybody in Washington is trying to fit in with the new system by taking a bunch of 3s because Humphries as fired off 20 attempts in five preseason games -- making six of them. This is pretty unusual behavior for Kris because he's only attempt 26 3s in his 11-year career. He's only made two of those attempts and both of those makes came in his rookie season. He hasn't hit a 3-point shot in an NBA game in a literal decade.

I can't imagine this experiment is going to last long.


DeMarcus Cousins Tier: (This is not where you eat)

DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings: In the effort of full disclosure, this was the man who inspired this post.

My biggest problem with Cousins wanting to become a 3-point shooter under George Karl is that it takes away from his unstoppable strengths as a superstar. Yes, he's had a pretty good jumper over the years. In his career, he's a 38.8 percent shooter from 16-23 feet. That's more than acceptable for a man of his size. The problem with trying to extend his range beyond the arc is that you're taking him away from the basket, and if anybody on this list should be near the basket, it's the category 5 Kaiju the Kings put a No. 15 jersey on every night.

Cousins is a monster and by having him closer to the basket, you put an immeasurable amount of pressure on the defense to keep him from dominating at the rim. He makes 63 percent of his shots within three feet, and that's with a couple defenders hanging all over him. I can imagine it sounds like a cool idea to see a man of his size taking these shots, but he's just 11-of-69 in his career. So far in the preseason, he's 1-of-12 from deep in five games. Just go be a monster in the paint, DMC. Please.



bob



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For the Cs, Sullinger is still the guy I do not want to see floating around the 3 point line. His record out there is similar to Josh Smith.

But, more like Cousins and the Kings, the Cs need Sullinger much closer to the basket. There is a lot to be said for being very good at one thing moreso than become mediocre at several things when you are in sports and have a desire to win games and championships.