Highly Respected "Nylon Calculus" Predicts 52 Wins for C's

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/bdl-s-most-interesting-power-rankings--okc-grabs-everyone-s-attention-065336243.html

Can't find Boston anywhere in the top 15, but I sure do see Cleveland (3), Milwaukee (4), Miami (6), Chicago (9) and Indiana (15) as far as their opinion of East teams.

rambone wrote:Last September I said "This team can run right into the playoffs." Everybody on realgm thought I was nuts.

Then on Dec 10 I wrote "what if the re-build is over?", even though the C's had a .333 winning % at the time. I predicted Danny would trade in one of his many many many many draft picks for an impact player like IT4, and the Celtics would still make the playoffs with most of their future core already on board.

Everybody thought I was nuts.

Now every advanced analytics model has the Celtics winning between 47-52 games, like at least 4 of the most well respected.

Only hacks like the CBS guys are predicting low 40s.

I was pretty much exactly right all along last season, and I bet you were almost exactly wrong.

So who's living in a dream world?

Why would you attack CBS Sports, just because they don't agree with you?
Bleacher Report is predicting 43 wins for Boston.
ESPN has Boston ranked as the 6th best team in the East and 13th in the NBA.
Are they all hacks too?

Boston has good players but mediocre doesn't win in the NBA.
Having 13-15 deep means little.
Having the best 10 players win games.

lol, bleacher report too huh? I guess that confirms the cbs guys know what they're talking about.

What did the National Enquirer predict?

Here's another guy's prediction from Nylon Calculus



http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/09/30/highly-plausible-nba-win-projections-2015-16/

rambone wrote:lol, bleacher report too huh? I guess that confirms the cbs guys know what they're talking about.

What did the National Enquirer predict?

I could find respected sports website after website predicting similar results.
Is ESPN not respected?
What about SB Nation?
None of their 7 analysts are predicting that Boston will finish higher than 6th in the East.
http://www.sbnation.com/2015/10/26/9582350/nba-predictions-2015-championship-golden-state-warriors

I can't get this to format correctly, but you probably get the point.

RANK

ZILLER

FLANNERY

PRADA

O'DONNELL

BERGERON

MADU

ROSENTHAL

1 Cavs Cavs Cavs Cavs Cavs Cavs Cavs
2 Bulls Heat Hawks Bulls Bulls Bulls Heat
3 Wizards Hawks Wizards Hawks Hawks Wizards Hawks
4 Heat Wizards Bulls Wizards Wizards Hawks Bulls
5 Hawks Bulls Heat Heat Heat Raptors Raptors
6 Raptors Celtics Celtics Celtics Raptors Heat Wizards
7 Celtics Raptors Bucks Bucks Bucks Bucks Celtics
8 Bucks Bucks Pistons Pacers Celtics Celtics Magic
9 Pistons Pacers Raptors Magic Pacers Pacers Bucks
10 Pacers Pistons Pacers Raptors Magic Pistons Knicks
11 Knicks Magic Knicks Pistons Pistons Magic Pacers
12 Magic Hornets Magic Knicks Knicks Hornets Pistons
13 Nets Knicks Nets Nets Nets Knicks Hornets
14 Hornets Nets Sixers Sixers Sixers Nets Nets
15 Sixers Sixers Hornets Hornets Hornets Sixers Sixers

I think many of Nylon Calculus predictions are flawed.
Dallas as a 40 win team in the West?
They probably have the least amount of talent on their roster in the West.
Starters are Deron Williams (slow, ineffective), Wesley Matthews (decent player coming off of an Achilles tear, not ready for full time minutes), Chandler Parsons (nice player as a 3rd option), Dirk (very good but no longer a 30min+ player) and Javale McGee (enough said)
Plus they have a terrible bench.
5 of the 7 SB Nation analysts are predicting that Dallas will finish last in the West. I agree with them. But the "Highly Respected" (LOL) Nylon Calculus has them winning 40 games...

Boston wins for this season with Las Vegas is listed at 42.5.
It sure seems to me that everyone but you and Nylon Calculus are predicting between 41-46 wins.

FiveThirtyEight: Celtics Will Win 48 Games This Season, Advanced Data Predict
http://nesn.com/2015/10/fivethirtyeight-projects-celtics-to-win-48-games-make-another-leap-in-2015-16/




Projecting the NBA standings for the 2015-16 season using Win Shares

EAST PROJECTED WIN SHARES WEST PROJECTED WIN SHARES
1. Toronto Raptors 52.9 1. Golden State Warriors 63.0
2. Cleveland Cavaliers 51.4 2. Los Angeles Clippers 61.9
3. Chicago Bulls 51.2 3. Oklahoma City Thunder 60.0
4. Atlanta Hawks 50.8 4. San Antonio Spurs 57.5
5. Boston Celtics 47.4 5. Memphis Grizzlies 56.6
6. Washington Wizards 44.3 6. Houston Rockets 53.2
7. Charlotte Hornets 41.6 7. New Orleans Pelicans 45.7
8. Miami Heat 41.4 8. Phoenix Suns 41.3
9. Milwaukee Bucks 40.0 9. Dallas Mavericks 41.2
10. Detroit Pistons 39.9 10. Utah Jazz 41.2
11. Indiana Pacers 39.0 11. Portland Trail Blazers 38.6
12. Orlando Magic 31.6 12. Sacramento Kings 33.5
13. Brooklyn Nets 29.7 13. Los Angeles Lakers 29.9
14. New York Knicks 28.0 14. Denver Nuggets 29.6
15. Philadelphia 76ers 23.2 15. Minnesota Timberwolves 23.5

http://www.si.com/nba/2015/07/16/nba-standings-predictions-hornets-thunder-celtics-blazers-mavericks

Boston could win 47-48 games and finish 5th in the East.
To base wins on projected plus/minus numbers as 538 does, seems quite silly...
Also, they have Jerebko playing more than Zeller and the same amount as Johnson.
I would expect Jerebko will have a hard time finding playing time.

Nylon Calculus? Never heard of it.

Hope they're right, but it seems like a pretty big stretch.

tjmakz wrote:Boston could win 47-48 games and finish 5th in the East.
To base wins on projected plus/minus numbers as 538 does, seems quite silly...
Also, they have Jerebko playing more than Zeller and the same amount as Johnson.
I would expect Jerebko will have a hard time finding playing time.

TJ,

That looks reasonable to me.

Jerebko is a multi-position player, he can play 3 and 4, and Brad loves his versatility. Zeller is strictly 5 and will be constrained by that. Amir will play more than Jerebko, but I'll bet not a lot more because of the depth we have at 4. Amir will not play anywhere near as many minutes as last yar in Toronto.

Brad is all about matchups and combos that work well together. The more positions you can play, the more matchups and combos he can/will put you into.


bob


.

rambone wrote:The Celtics were 12 games over .500 in their last 36 games.

You know what doesn't make sense? Starting 13-26 and finishing the season with 40 wins, because of a 24-12 finish.

People still lumping in the Rondo/Green roster with the second half roster, that doesn't make sense.

52 wins simply means playing as well as the roster was playing almost the entire second half of the season.

What does the first half of the season, the 13-26 part, have to do with the roster that finished the season, which has been significantly upgraded since that 24-12 season?

What doesn't make sense is claiming the Rondo/Green roster/hierarchy has anything to do with the awesome team put together after that, and the great additions made since that 24-12 finish.

Last pre-season Coach Stevens had to beg Jeff Green to be a leader and take James Young under his wing. Rondo and Green don't know the first thing about leadership, and were never cut out to be The Man, or anything close to it. So the team stunk as a result while they were awkwardly placed in leadership roles.

Rondo alone probably blew 3-4 close games that were totally winnable, and Jeff Green was mentally checked out since the day Rondo was traded. So was Sully.

Last season was the tale of two seasons, and pretending otherwise just shortchanges THIS team for no reason.

It's fine to think that THIS team won't win 50+ games, but come up with better reasons than the 13-26 start with Rondo and Green in leadership roles.

Amen, self. And notice how this nyloncalculus analytics guy predicted the Blazers to have a good season and make the 8th seed.