Should Kelly Start?

We don't have an OBVIOUS starting center.  We are in the position of trying to find combos that are the most effective working together and are not in the luxurious position of starting a player because he is just clearly the best player for that position no matter who else we have on the team or who we are playing against.  That'd be nice, but it isn't us...yet.

So, here's some info about how Kelly is playing this year, based upon the minutes he gets.  The source for this is CSNNE.


..............................Kelly playing <25mpg...............Kelly playing 25+mpg
Celtics Record...........11-12.....................................5-1
Points/game-----------6.3----------------------------------21.3
Field Goal %----------38.8%------------------------------63.6%
Rebounds/game-------3.4----------------------------------5.2
Steals/game------------.8-----------------------------------2.0

Some players can play well off the bench.  Lee is doing well, Amir does well, IT does well, Bradley did well.  Some players don't play well off the bench, they do better as starters.  Sully and Kelly play better as starters.  Maybe it's a "youth" thing, maybe their minds and discipline aren't strong enough to handle the uncertainty of not starting.  Regardless of why, should we continue to start Kelly and give him >25mpg as long as his performance stays better than as a bench player (and we don't see a correspondingly similar fall-off in Amir's production off the bench)?


bob


.

Bob,

I did not vote because the categories needed to be increased. I know you show his stats and wins by the Celtics, but what was his and teams +/- while on the court as a starter?

If he is showing these stats, play him until February and get as much as you can in a trade!

112288

I voted yes with 25+ mpg

Dboss

112288 wrote:Bob,

I did not vote because the categories needed to be increased.   I know you show his stats and wins by the Celtics, but what was his and teams +/- while on the court as a starter?

If he is showing these stats, play him until February and get as much as you can in a trade!

112288

112288,

I just copy-and-pasted those stats from CSNNE, I provided what they provided.

I am not a fan of the +/- stat since it is not a 5-man unit stat and basketball is a 5-man unit sport.  I prefer offensive and defensive ratings, which are points scored and points allowed respectively, and especially the Net Rating, which is the offensive rating minus the defensive rating.  Those ratings adjust for minutes played and don't care whether they start or not.  

If I had to make a guess, I'd say that Kelly's +/- is much worse when he plays under 25mpg and much better when he plays more than 25mpg.  Why?  Because his contributions are much worse under 25mpg and our record is also much worse which means it likely the team didn't respond as well too (although, we can look at the GSW game where the team played well, we just went up against a juggernaut that had not quite finished running its course).

If he is still getting those type of numbers in February then why would you want to "get whatever you can for him in a trade"?  His numbers, at <25mpg, make him easily expendable. His number 25+mpg make him pretty damn valuable.



bob


.

Olynyk has looked pretty good for the last week or so. With the many players who have varied ups and downs this year it is not unreasonable to leave him in the starting rotation even when Johnson returns.

Perhaps being in the starting lineup will assist Olynyk in developing his consistency more than he has shown to date where most of his games have begun on the bench. Although there is no perfect reason why some guys perform better as starters compared to as subs (or the other way), there is no question that they often do play better when used at different times in games even if their minutes are similar from either starting or subbing.

It could be 100% mental, but if he can keep playing like the other night as a starter then i say leave him there until he plays himself out of this role even if he is not what you would think of a starting NBA center on most nights. 20 points, almost 10 boards, improving defense, good passing, good shot selection and percentage is certainly not terrible. The question may come down to how often he can play this way.

Tough to criticize after a good win on the road that was greatly assisted by Amir Johnson's fine game, but Olynyk looked pretty pedestrian again last night coming off the bench.

Stevens mentioned that the team needs Olynyk to play well whether starting or subbing, but it looks like the coach likes Johnson better in the starting lineup.

In the pre-game last night, Brad said that the choice between Amir and Kelly was about matchups, and don't read anything into his game day decision.

So I won't.

Apparently a mute point as Stevens has started Johnson two games in a row. I voted for KO to start however, as he seems to get in a grove early and stay there. If he can play like that consistently I would not be the least inclined to trade him.

Berlin-T