Kelly Olynyk "Borderline Untouchable"?

http://redsarmy.com/2015/12/28/i-called-kelly-olynyk-borderline-untouchable-and-heres-why/



I called Kelly Olynyk “borderline untouchable”… and here’s why


John - Red's Army (@December 28, 2015







Aside from a stretch of play that caused me to launch into a frustrated podcast rant, Kelly Olynyk has had a pretty good month of December. We were treated to more great play last night, despite him being limited by foul trouble.

Last night, while lauding his play on Twitter, I took it a step further and said…


John Karalis @RedsArmy_John
Kelly Olynyk is borderline untouchable to me
8:51 PM - 27 Dec 2015
 1 1 Retweet   29 29 likes


This is the point where you jump to the comments and call me a lunatic without reading any further.

HOWEVER…

If you’d like to keep reading, I think I can make my point.

In short: Kelly Olynkyk, frustrating as he might be for some stretches of games, is slowly developing a pretty nice offensive game. He’s showing the aggression necessary to be a matchup problem much more often this season. When he’s doing that, he radically affects the game. On top of all he’s doing offensively, he’s now added a defensive element to his game that’s making it easier to play him with different combinations of players.

The bottom line, to me, is that you don’t trade away the kind of guy the whole league is looking for.. a stretch big who can also dribble, pass, and not hurt you on defense. The only way trading him away makes sense to me is getting that superstar player in return. Olynyk, to me, is untouchable in a lower-level deal. His skill set is too unique to give away unless you’re getting something big in return.

Don’t believe me? Here’s a look at his numbers…

First let’s set the baseline. Here are some of Kelly Olynyk’s relevant career numbers:

19.7 Minutes per game
Offensive rating: 106
Defensive rating: 103
True Shooting: 55.8%
Points: 9.5
Rebounds: 4.8
Assists: 1.6

Nothing eye-popping there. But now here’s his December:

23.2 Minutes per game
Offensive rating: 109
Defensive rating: 98
True Shooting: 60.8%
Points: 13.2
Rebounds: 4.5
Assists: 1.8

There’s evidence that Kelly Olynyk should be on the floor more. In games this season where he’s played 20 or more minutes, the Celtics are 12-2 and those two losses were to the Cavaliers and Warriors…

In terms of +/-…

Olynyk is part of the top three 2-man combinations (with, in order Jae Crowder (+15.7), Jared Sullinger (+13), and Amir Johnson (+12.4))
Olynyk is part of the top three 3-man combinations (with Crowder/Isaiah Thomas (+24.6), Johnson/Thomas (+20.6), and Crowder/Johnson (20.5))
Olynyk is part of the top 4-man combination (with Avery Bradley/Thomas/Crowder (+30/3))
Olynyk is part of the top 5-man combination (with Bradley/Crowder/Thomas/Evan Turner (+81.4))

When Olynyk scores at least 11 points, the Celtics are 10-2. One loss is to Toronto, when he scored 11 points in 16 minutes. The other was to the Warriors… Olynyk had 28 points and was pretty awesome.

Olynyk is only in his third year and he doesn’t turn 25 until April. He’ll have bad stretches again during the season, and I might fall victim to the same frustrations, but it’s only because I know he can be a pretty good player. When he’s at his best, he has a positive effect on everyone else on the floor with his ability to provide space while also scoring and making good decisions with the basketball.

He’s not always at his best, but we’re starting to see Olynyk figure things out. He’s making subtle plays that show he’s learning the game and fulfilling some of the promise heaped upon him when he was dominating summer league games. He’s gotten to a point where his value to a team goes well beyond the $2.1 million he’s making under his rookie deal.

So again, I don’t see any reason to move the guy unless a superstar suddenly becomes available. Other than that, there aren’t a lot of guys in the league that can do what Olynyk does at that position. Whenever Trader Danny starts cookin’, I’d prefer he leave Kelly Olynyk off the table.



bob
MY NOTE:  Until we have a team that is competing for the EC Title, minimum, NOBODY on this team is untouchable.  Having said that, if you separate out the younger players who are on rookie contracts he's the most untouchable, for whatever that's worth.  Sully might be that if he wasn't in the final year of his rookie contract.  Sully's rebounding numbers are much better than Kelly's, obviously, but his personal scoring and Net Rating are worse.  As much as I like RJ and have high hopes for Rozier and Mickey, if we could get a high quality player if we threw one of them into the deal, they're gone.


.

Bob

I agree with you 100% regarding no one being untouchable.

If history has taught us anything it is quite possible that the best young player on this team (several candidates to choose from) would be part of a blockbuster level trade.

The Celtics have so many draft picks that they have to make some trades

dboss

dboss wrote:Bob

I agree with you 100%  regarding no one being untouchable.

If history has taught us anything it is quite possible that the best young player on this team (several candidates to choose from) would be part of a blockbuster level trade.

The Celtics have so many draft picks that they have to make some trades

dboss

dboss,

It's funny how a player that a lot of us would have been more than happy to trade for a box of Krispy Kremes a month ago is now considered valuable. I, myself, wasn't a Kelly supporter until rambone forced me to watch him carefully and not just judge him by his boxscore and what my expectations of a 7'er are.

These shifting opinions are typical of a young team. Young players are inconsistent. Young players make mental mistakes, don't know who they are defending against and haven't adjusted to the faster, bigger, stronger nature of the NBA yet. They have highs and lows and the delta between their highs and lows, and the duration of the valleys between the highs, are often greater.

Kelly is only 24. He won't be 25 until April. Unlike these one-and-doners that are coming out of college after 1 year and are now 24 years old he is still a relatively inexperienced NBA player. Sully, who was a two-and-doner, is numerically younger than Kelly but has more NBA experience and also had the invaluable benefit of a year in Garnett University. Who was Kelly's big man mentor his first 2 years in the league? Sully? Kids leading kids. Now, finally, he has Amir and Lee to show him how it's done.


bob



.

Bob

I think Kelly made some big strides near the end of last season.  It was like a light switch got turned on.

He has been somewhat inconsistent during certain games this year but he is also showing more poise at both ends.

One of the things that bothers me about our offense is the inability to run the offense so that a particular player can get the shots that they need.  There have been several games where KO is not getting enough looks.  He is so unselfish and always thinks about swinging the ball instead of shooting it.  The style is great in accomplishing really good ball movement but it lacks a more singular focus that is needed when player X is on fire or simply not getting their fair share of shots.

IMO KO has the highest offensive aptitude of all of our bigs. As we watch Sully continue his decline back to being a below average shot maker from the perimeter, KO is going in the opposite direction. I must also admit that he is getting his hands on a lot of balls, rebounding with more authority and getting to the rim more often. I do not know what his ceiling is but given his shooting abilities I would wager that he could be a 20 PPG guy if given 15 shots a game. I am somewhat surprised that he seems to miss too many free throw attempts. The 20 PPG projection contemplates that he will shoot a higher percentage from the free throw line.

KO could be the guy that anchors a big time trade. But why? If Danny Trades KO it better be for an Allstar type player.

dboss

Kelly is far exceeding Sully, something many of us thought might never, ever happen. I think being involved in the Canadian league this summer and succeeding so well gave Kelly the push he needed. It is also obvious that Brad likes him alot.

Bob, you may be right, no one may not be untouchable, but it is going to have to take a very good trade to see him go. Sully on the other hand has one foot on a banana peel and the other one out the door. He has such a great set of hands, but his basketball IQ when it comes to offense is back in high school, where he must have taken thousands of shots.

I find myself watching Kelly more when he is on the floor because there is so much he can do. Now if we can just keep him out of foul trouble.

Rosalie

Consistency needed.

"Borderline Untouchable". You have to be kidding. All you need to know is that Danny traded Al Jefferson back in 2007.

swish

swish wrote:"Borderline Untouchable". You have to be kidding.  All you need to know is that Danny traded Al Jefferson back in 2007.

 swish

That sums it up well.

IF THE ARGUMENT IS HALF RIGHT AND YOU CAN SELL IT TO ANOTHER GM


LET THE TRADE BEGIN!

112288