Break Up the Nets

The Nets are starting to look like a much better team than any/all Celtics fans want them to be.

Every win the Nets get seemingly devalues the worth of their first round pick which, of course, is currently owned by the Celtics.
Not only have the Nets won a few games lately, but they now seem to have a much more potent offense, and when you can score in
the NBA you have a chance in almost every game.

It may very well be time to get this pick traded before it possibly becomes much further down in the draft than what it may have
looked to be two months ago. The Cs chances of getting a shot at Simmons falling away.

Mr. Ainge, please do not gamble with this pick. Trade if for quality ASAP

And somehow Phoenix gets worse and worse.

Nets will have a tough last couple months

They have now played 30 games at home where they are 10-20 so they only have 11 home games left. They have 18 on the road including a rather odd 9 games straight on the road from 2/23-3/13.
They start in Portland, then Pho, Utah, Clippers, Lakers, Denver, Minn, Toronto, and finally Philly.

On the road they are 4-19.

Yeah for now they are tied with the "setting" Suns with 14 wins but I still think they will finish no better (or worse) depending on how you look at it, with the third worst record in the league.

beat

Right now Brooklyn and Phoenix are tied for the 3rd/4th worst records in the league.
Their remaining schedules are pretty similar.
Brooklyn has 12 games remaining against teams who right now are playoff teams. Phoenix has 13 games remaining against playoff teams.
I think Phoenix will finish with a worse record than Brooklyn for a few reasons.
1) I think they will try to trade Morris and Chandler (good luck) at the trade deadline for future assets.
2) Their best player, Eric Bledsoe is out for the season. They are 2-22 without Bledsoe on the floor.
3) Phoenix has reasons to tank or rest their best players toward the end of the season. They want a very high draft pick.
4) Brooklyn has no reason to tank or rest their players. I expect they will try to be buyers at the trade deadline. A Lou Williams type of player would be a perfect fit for Brooklyn. He is a scorer who can play both guard positions and he has two remaining years after this season.

dboss wrote:If Buddy is there at 4 I would still keep the pick.


Dboss

Buddy is a very good shooter and scorer.
I am just not sure that you take a 22 year old 6'4" SG with the #4 pick.

I've never been a fan of rolling the dice with the basketball gods, the sonovabitches have loaded the dice against us too many times.  Gimme the sure thing.

This pick is very enticing.  It's our best chance at a transcendental talent in a very long time.  The problem with this draft is that once you get past Ben Simmons there really aren't any transcendental talents.  That means you have to nail #1.  Not #2 or #3, #1.  Anything less than #1 and your chances of drafting a franchise player drops precipitously.

Marcus Smart was the #6 pick but who have we had who was a high pick before him?

2013 - Kelly Olynyk, #13.  We traded up from #16 to get him.  Still a work-in-progress.  An 'incomplete' grade due to less than 3 years in league.
2007 - Jeff Green, #5.  The pick was traded on draft day for Ray Allen
2006 - Randy Foye, #7.  Pick traded for Sebastian Telfair.  Oy.  
2001 - Joe Johnson, #10.  A year and then bye-bye.
2001 - Kedrick Brown, #11.  Bust.
2000 - Jerome Moiso, #11.  Bust straight out of the box.
1999 - Paul Pierce, #10.
1997 - Chauncey Billups, #3.  Got traded after 1 year because of Pitino.
1997 - Ron Mercer, #6
1996 - Antoine Walker, #6

There's 20 years of Celtic lottery draft picks.  We have had 10 picks, in 20 years, that have been lottery picks.  One of them, Chauncey Billups, went on to a great career.  Joe Johnson made money despite not being particularly good at anything besides shooting.  'Toine was the ultimate 'tweener.  Mercer was Reggie Theus without anywhere near as much talent or ganas.  In other words, other than Paul Pierce, the draft hasn't been a great source of talent for us (it could have been better except that Pitino screwed the pooch for us with Billups because he didn't grasp the difference between college and pro coaching.  He expected players to jump through his tiny little hoop or be gone).

Of the picks we've had that were in the top 10, there have been 7.  One of them was a long-time Celtic, Pierce, and he is going into the HOF.  One was traded for a future HOFer and I'd say that trade worked out pretty damn well, better than that player's career is turning out.  Another, Foye, was traded for a player who was then traded 2 years later for KG.  That worked out well too, better than that player's career has turned out, so I'm glad we traded that pick too.  Joe Johnson is not missed by me.  If you like him, you can have him.  I like Krispy Kremes.  Throw a box into the deal and it's done.  Pitino blew Billups for us.  Mercer and 'Toine were #6s.  Looking at their careers, do you see them as high draft picks?  7 top 10s, 2 worth a shit.  Not good ROI, not good enough where rolling the dice makes sense to me.

Brooklyn has the talent to win games.  They have a dominant center.  They have a dead-eye shooter in Johnson, when he resurrects his carcass on the occasional nights.  They have an excellent PF in Thaddeus Young.  They have an adequate point guard in Jack and a decent back up in Larkin.  They don't have enough quality pieces to make noise but they do have enough to win a game every now and again.  If Lopez has a good game, Young plays his normal game and Johnson goes off they can beat a lot of teams in this league on any given night.  That's more than the Sixers and Lakers can say.  Minny has some talent but is way too young and raw to execute and Phoenix is power diving.  Brooklyn is now tied for 3rd worst with Phoenix and Minny only has 2 fewer losses than Brooklyn but plays in a tougher conference (the WC is not so much tougher than the EC as last year, but still tougher).  

Phoenix has 29 games left, 14 at home and 15 away.  1 game vs Brooklyn at home and a home-away with LAL.  Beat described Brooklyn's schedule, it's tough but they have a game against the possibly imploding Knicks and 2 against Philly and the one against Phoenix.

This is the part about being a GM I don't like.  I'm ok with swapping players out for others, it's the whole lottery uncertainty that bugs me.  If Brooklyn stays healthy then my money would be on Phoenix ending up with the worse record and better lottery pick.  If one more Net goes down for more than a couple of games, then not.


No wonder Danny had a heart attack.


bob


.

The lottery balls can fall unexpectedly. No one knows what pick we'll have in the end.

It looks like he will be, but there's no guarantee that Ben Simmons will be the #1 pick.
Brandon Ingram looks like an excellent prospect who can shoot the ball outside which is something Simmons has not shown he can do. Simmons has (1) 3 point FG this season. It's not great when your point forward has no outside shot.
Ingram is super skinny, but he has a perimeter game. He's 6'9" with a 7'3" wingspan and he won't turn 19 until September.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25471266/nba-draft-big-board-ben-simmons-brandon-ingram-vie-for-no-1

To me it does not yet matter whether Simmons or Ingram turns out to be the best pro of the two. I still think that getting a chance to get either one (assuming that they get drafted first and second) is very risky.

I would much prefer a young, already productive NBA center or shooting forward/wing than a raw rookie on next year's (and the two years after as well) for the re-build that Ainge and Stevens currently have the Cs on.

I just do not see either of these two rookies (if even they could fall to the Cs-history has not been good) making a huge contribution next season to a team that would appear to be a playoff team. Certainly, the other first round picks would seem to have even less chance of making a contribution over even the next three seasons. The pile of second rounders will even be tough to trade away as there are just too many of them.

I would think that some bottom feeder NBA teams would be happy to trade existing expensive talent for a low priced draft pick + whatever's needed to make the salary cap work. Sacto? You hearing me?

bobheckler wrote:I've never been a fan of rolling the dice with the basketball gods, the sonovabitches have loaded the dice against us too many times.  Gimme the sure thing.

This pick is very enticing.  It's our best chance at a transcendental talent in a very long time.  The problem with this draft is that once you get past Ben Simmons there really aren't any transcendental talents.  That means you have to nail #1.  Not #2 or #3, #1.  Anything less than #1 and your chances of drafting a franchise player drops precipitously.

Marcus Smart was the #6 pick but who have we had who was a high pick before him?

2013 - Kelly Olynyk, #13.  We traded up from #16 to get him.  Still a work-in-progress.  An 'incomplete' grade due to less than 3 years in league.
2007 - Jeff Green, #5.  The pick was traded on draft day for Ray Allen
2006 - Randy Foye, #7.  Pick traded for Sebastian Telfair.  Oy.  
2001 - Joe Johnson, #10.  A year and then bye-bye.
2001 - Kedrick Brown, #11.  Bust.
2000 - Jerome Moiso, #11.  Bust straight out of the box.
1999 - Paul Pierce, #10.
1997 - Chauncey Billups, #3.  Got traded after 1 year because of Pitino.
1997 - Ron Mercer, #6
1996 - Antoine Walker, #6

There's 20 years of Celtic lottery draft picks.  We have had 10 picks, in 20 years, that have been lottery picks.  One of them, Chauncey Billups, went on to a great career.  Joe Johnson made money despite not being particularly good at anything besides shooting.  'Toine was the ultimate 'tweener.  Mercer was Reggie Theus without anywhere near as much talent or ganas.  In other words, other than Paul Pierce, the draft hasn't been a great source of talent for us (it could have been better except that Pitino screwed the pooch for us with Billups because he didn't grasp the difference between college and pro coaching.  He expected players to jump through his tiny little hoop or be gone).

Of the picks we've had that were in the top 10, there have been 7.  One of them was a long-time Celtic, Pierce, and he is going into the HOF.  One was traded for a future HOFer and I'd say that trade worked out pretty damn well, better than that player's career is turning out.  Another, Foye, was traded for a player who was then traded 2 years later for KG.  That worked out well too, better than that player's career has turned out, so I'm glad we traded that pick too.  Joe Johnson is not missed by me.  If you like him, you can have him.  I like Krispy Kremes.  Throw a box into the deal and it's done.  Pitino blew Billups for us.  Mercer and 'Toine were #6s.  Looking at their careers, do you see them as high draft picks?  7 top 10s, 2 worth a shit.  Not good ROI, not good enough where rolling the dice makes sense to me.

Brooklyn has the talent to win games.  They have a dominant center.  They have a dead-eye shooter in Johnson, when he resurrects his carcass on the occasional nights.  They have an excellent PF in Thaddeus Young.  They have an adequate point guard in Jack and a decent back up in Larkin.  They don't have enough quality pieces to make noise but they do have enough to win a game every now and again.  If Lopez has a good game, Young plays his normal game and Johnson goes off they can beat a lot of teams in this league on any given night.  That's more than the Sixers and Lakers can say.  Minny has some talent but is way too young and raw to execute and Phoenix is power diving.  Brooklyn is now tied for 3rd worst with Phoenix and Minny only has 2 fewer losses than Brooklyn but plays in a tougher conference (the WC is not so much tougher than the EC as last year, but still tougher).  

Phoenix has 29 games left, 14 at home and 15 away.  1 game vs Brooklyn at home and a home-away with LAL.  Beat described Brooklyn's schedule, it's tough but they have a game against the possibly imploding Knicks and 2 against Philly and the one against Phoenix.

This is the part about being a GM I don't like.  I'm ok with swapping players out for others, it's the whole lottery uncertainty that bugs me.  If Brooklyn stays healthy then my money would be on Phoenix ending up with the worse record and better lottery pick.  If one more Net goes down for more than a couple of games, then not.


No wonder Danny had a heart attack.


bob


.

Nice analysis, and thanks for listing all those Celtics draft picks - been meaning to make the same list, but have been too lazy to do so. The one thing I don't entirely agree with is that the pick should be flipped if it is not #1. The current cba allows teams an excellent shot at keeping the rookies they draft for 9 years on reasonable contracts. Even some of the players you list as low ROI would be players I would be happy to keep around at a reasnable salary. Toine was not a transcendent player, but with a reasonable salary under a coach like Brad, he could be a valuable part on a chamspionship team. I guess it sort of depends on your philosophy - do you go all in on certain years, making the decisions that may hurt the team a short time down the road, or do you always do what's best for the health of the franchise in the long run and hope that occasionally everything comes together. The latter strategy has worked well for Belichek and the Patriots, but this is a bit misleading since the Patriots have had the most impactful position manned by perhaps the greatest qb to ever play the game for nearly 15 years. Also, this approach may not be suited for basketball. It will be a numer of tough calls coming, but there is nobody whom I would rather have making them than Danny.

Wouldn't it be great to get a player like Brady from deep in the draft (a lowly 2nd round pick - Brady was a 6th rounder) who could bolster the Celtics franchise for a decade +?
They do exist. Although we did not draft them all, the Celts had these 2nd rounders on their roster of the years -
Danny Ainge
KC Jones,
Bill Sharman
DJ
Tiny Archibald

Check out others that have made it in the NBA - http://uproxx.com/dimemag/30-best-second-round-nba-draft-picks-ever/

Let's hope Jordan Mickey becomes one of them.

worcester wrote:Wouldn't it be great to get a player like Brady from deep in the draft (a lowly 2nd round pick - Brady was a 6th rounder) who could bolster the Celtics franchise for a decade +?
They do exist. Although we did not draft them all, the Celts had these 2nd rounders on their roster of the years -
Danny Ainge
KC Jones,
Bill Sharman
DJ
Tiny Archibald

Check out others that have made it in the NBA - http://uproxx.com/dimemag/30-best-second-round-nba-draft-picks-ever/

Let's hope Jordan Mickey becomes one of them.

I didn't realize it until today, but Isaih was drafted number 60 in 2011, i.e. the last person taken in that draft...Not saying he is quite on Brady's level, just wanted to point out that we do indeed get a pretty damn good player from deep in the draft (though of course we didn't draft him..)