Soup to Nuts

Contrary to what some might think this thread is not about me going out to dinner with my friends.  It's about reviewing this season, from the beginning, through the end of the regular season and the playoffs.

Wideclyde started a thread called "What a Great Season".  This thread is not intended to replace that thread.  We should go to that thread and express our pride and appreciation of what they accomplished this year, to take a well-deserved "victory lap".  My intent, and hope, for this thread is to analyze our strengths and weaknesses this year and in the playoffs and project forward what kind of players we will need next year to continue our rise.  This thread is meant to be more analytical, more GM-gaming, than I believe Clyde's was intended.

I'll go first:

Much has been made of our lack of rim protectors, but that did not stop us from having a high quality, even elite, defense for most of the season.  Nor did the lack of rim protectors stop the Hawks from having the best post-all star game defense and a pretty damn good one in the playoffs-to-date.  While I'd love a rim protector, this series has convinced me  that it is no longer our biggest glaring weakness.  Our biggest glaring weakness is reliable shooting.

We knew in the preseason that we were thin at 3.  We had Jae and Turner and James Young.  None of us were high on Young, and he proved us prescient.  We need more depth there.  Specifically, in my opinion, we need a shooter more than a defensive specialist.  We need a player who can knock'em down, who can get us a lot of points in a hurry if he's in his zone.  He can be streaky, if he wasn't he'd be an all-star, but he has to be able to go off on that streak.  We don't have anybody like that now as a wing.  Buddy Hield is a little shorter for this than I would like, but he would fit the bill.  Ingram, if get a break with the ping pong balls, would certainly fit the bill.  Duh.  Young, of course, should be gone.  Jonas is a swing, and he's extremely versatile and a very good defender and I am on record as saying we should pick up his team option, but he's not the shooter we need nor will he become that.

At point guard we have IT and Rozier.  Rozier needs to work on his shooting, his floor generalship will grow (or not!) with more minutes.  Point guard is one of the toughest positions, the one with the longest learning curve, of all.  Marcus Smart really isn't a point guard.  He's not a good enough ball handler and he isn't a good enough penetrator.  Are those learnable?  Absolutely, but that's where we are at.

We have Avery, and we saw what his loss cost us.  RJ?  Sheesh, I don't know.  Hard to say.  His calling card, shooting, didn't show up last year.  Then again, neither did Avery's in his rookie year.  Some patience is warranted, I suppose.  He's doomed if we draft Hield.  We need another shooter in the back court, but we already have 5 spots filled (IT, Avery, RJ, Rozier, Smart).  That's about as full as you can have it.  This means that either one of them has to be gone or they need to step up, OR we get a shooter who is versatile enough to play SG and SF (OJ Mayo? Rudy Gay? Someone like them).  RJ has to become the shooter he has the promise to be, period.  It's good he is taking pride in his defense but his calling card and ticket to stay in the NBA is his shooting.  Rozier has to become a MUCH better shooter (he shot 27%, 22.2% from 3).  I don't see that happening next year, that's too big a jump up.  Smart needs to be a better shooter too.  Hell, he has to become just not the worst shooter in the NBA.  I see scoring depth from our back court as a major problem next year, barring drafting a player like Hield or a trade for one.  As we saw from this series we cannot just drop it all onto IT's shoulders, nor can we assume that Bradley can and will help.  Injuries are part of the game, that is why you build effective benches and our bench, especially at guard, were mostly ineffective scorers in the playoffs.  Smart had some good games, absolutely, and he hit some big, clutch shots but he isn't a gunner.  We need a gunner.

At big, our depth is an illusion.  Sully might have eaten his way off the team.  Kelly made progress last year, but has his lack of aggression issues.  Nevertheless, he shot 45.5% last year and 40.5% from 3.  His effective fg% was 53%.  That's pretty good for player who takes most of his shots outside.  If our problem is, as it certainly appeared to me to be in the playoffs, a lack of outside shooters to open the middle up, then Kelly fits that bill.  The question is whether he is a big game player.  He wasn't this series, but he is still young and he did have an injured shoulder.  If he is healthy, then his dubious defense is offset by his offensive impact, but that's regular season and the playoffs are different.  Jordan Mickey, for example, will be significantly more effective playing alongside a player like Kelly because Kelly will open the middle for Mickey to attack the offensive glass and/or cut without the ball.  Kelly is a good floor general, with the ball, for a big.  Amir is good, but he is so limited offensively he is strictly a complementary player.  We need some rim protection, and he fits that bill, but do we need him at $12M?  Zeller is a back up.  He's worth keeping, because you need a back up center and he is a legit NBA player, but he isn't a starter.  Danny needs to find a starter.  Horford vs Whiteside, two good ones coming available.  We can, and have been, discussing the relative values of each but we need a real starting NBA center.  Sully, to put it nicely, is not.

So, our needs?  In order of what I think we need:

Shooter at wing
Starting NBA center
Shooter at guard

I'd be willing to swap the two shooter positions, make the shooter at guard #1 and shooter at wing #3, but we need a major upgrade from those slots.  Really, we need all 3.  The biggest reason why the center is the priority it is is because Sully is coming up for a re-signing and I do not want to sign him to a long term contract, so we need to find his replacement sooner rather than later.  Otherwise, I'd say "get me those two shooters and I'll limp along with Sully for another year, or half a year until the trade deadline".  We don't have the luxury of that time now.

Our season is done.  What's next is the run up to the draft.  All but our first pick is set and that pick will be revealed on May 17th, when the lottery is held.  I'm not a college sports fan, so I am largely ignorant of our options, but I plan to start looking at game film now.  Why not?  Hoop is over for us now.


Thoughts?


bob


.

Bob,

Our shooting DEFINITELY needs to be improved. Atlanta did to our offense just what everyone will do until some shots can be made off passes by Thomas.

I would like to think that some of the younger guys who are already on the team will develop into much better shooters by next season, but not sure that if I were Ainge I would bank on such development.

Yes, Bradley has improved enough to be a regular third of fourth shooter on a good team, but he is still not the knock down shooter that the team needs. It certainly did make the Atlanta series more difficult without him, however, since he is probably our best at this time.

So, getting some improved shot makers HAS to be part of the strategic plan that began today.

I also agree with your thoughts of not wanting to sign Sullinger long term so if he does get a good dollar and years contract as a restricted I would have to think that he is gone and a center type replacement is needed. I would likely take him back on a one year deal depending upon what other additions are made this summer.

Horford is better than Sullinger, but may not be the guy who anchors the defense as much as we might want. Whiteside may anchor the defense better, but also has some questions about him. There is no center in the draft to get who possibly would be able to be a starter for us next year.

And, surprisingly, I still do not have a roster spot for James Young for next year.

bob

As you know this is what I have been talking about all season.

The style of play that we have requires knock down shooters because we are going to take a ton of 3 point shots.

We need to add the best shooter available on draft day.  My preference is for Buddy.  We really cannot wait to see if RJ is that guy.  Personally I never thought he was that good of a shooter because he has flaws in his release.  Even if the technical issues are fixed we still do not know if he will become that sniper that we need.  Young will never be good.  So we have to go get a shooter now.

So I agree with you 100% we need another reliable SG and we need a reliable SF that is better than both Crowder and ET.  And we need a rim protector.

It seems like an impossible task but we have to move probably 2 guards.

But even after we do that, we must address our frontline situation.  Sully is gone.  Amir wants $12 million next year and that is way too much for a player whose decline was quite evident even before he got here.  I really like Amir but only at short money.

KO was a player that DA moved up in the draft to get.  I do not see him ever becoming a starter at either the PF or center positions.  I think he is a career bench player that will be up and down as he has been with us for 3 years.  We see some growth and then a slide back to mediocrity.  Ok he hurt his shoulder but he was not going to be able to check either Horford or Milsap or any of the better 4/5 in the league even if he was healthy.  As far as I am concerned I would trade him as well.  That leaves Zeller, Jonas and Mickey.  Zeller is the only real center on this team so I would keep him.  As much as I hate watching Jonas play he is just about as good as KO and at $5 million he is  bargain so yes I would keep him as well.  He is a lot tougher than KO.  KO is a chump.  Mickey can start at PF for us next year in place of Sully and we should see an immediate improvement in our defense and pace getting up and down.

We have enough draft picks to add at least 2 very high quality players and enough money to land 2 max contracts.  We will need a minor trade or two to pair down the roster but the way i see it,  1/3 of this team needs to be moved.

The style of play is good but we need more than a little tweaking to take us to the next level.

dboss.

I know everyone is thrilled with Bobby Hield, but Danzel Valentine has many of the same skills, is bigger and stronger, a 4 year Michigan State player,and a coach' son who is slated to go #13 in the draft. Shoots .444 from three point land.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/62615/denzel-valentine

My daughter spent last week with Denzel and his dad doing a big MSU fundraiser for the National Kidney Foundation, and she encouraged him to go Celtics if he can. We may be able to use our highest pick for a more needed player than Hield, and then move up to get Valentine.

my first thoughts about this (yes of course I'll have many more as the off-season progresses...sorry about that).

I have no idea what we have with Mickey and none of us really do. He may be gone or he may be a key player next year. But I will not assume he can be a solid NBA player at this point. In fact I put him behind Hunter in my mind right now and Hunter doesn't have a guaranteed spot on next years roster for me.

I pretty much agree with everything else Bob said here after that one. I like Zeller more than most and if he cost LESS than $5M next year we should keep him. More importantly Brad has to give him regular minutes. We can do a lot worst at BACK UP Center than Zeller.

Jerebko earned his second year with his play this year, IMO .

Amir earned a second year IF his deal was closer to $5M...at $12M depends. In MY world I resign him to a new 2 year GUARANTEED deal at $8M per year.

Sully  gone, if Danny can somehow work a sign and trade and get  some future draft pick..great. If not we move on anyway.

Turner depends on what other players Danny can get this off season. If we don't get an upgrade at SF, Turner can be brought back . He may cost up to $10M though.


looking at the needs you have listed and agreeing with them, here is one possible option (out of probably MILLIONS right now) to meet those off-season goals.

1) Trade for Jimmy Butler. Lots of rumors he IS on the block. While he is NOT an elite 3 point shooter, he is a proven 20pt/G player who also provides solid to great defensive play.
he is under contract for 3 more years at $16, $17 and $18M per year.

cost to get him?
A. Bradley and the Nets pick at least, IMO.  Better figure the first pick in the second round and a future first rounder to get it done.

That type of deal would add about $4M to our salary. With Zeller signed at $5M and the two first round picks left we would be around $59M. (This assumes Turner and Sully are renounced or gone). Leaving us about $30M in cap  space, enough for a max or near max player and another FA at around $4-5M.

Enter Whiteside,Horford, Howard or even P. Gasol (on a shorter term deal).

also sign one of J. Bayless or J. Dudley  for about $4-5M

Trade the 16 , 23 and 51 pick to move up the 11-13 range to select  Deyonta Davis in the draft.

use the 35 pick on Dan Hamilton or Pat McCaw

the 45 pick on the best Euro draft and stash left.



Roster:

Whiteside (or other max FA)
Zeller
Amir
Kelly
D. Davis (draft)
Mickey
Jerebko
Crowder
J. Butler (Trade)
Smart
Thomas
Bayless Or Dudley
Rozier
Hunter
#35 pick over Young here

there is one option for you

W

We can draft both of them.

Valentine fills up a stat sheet.  He would be a good replacement and upgrade over ET.

Buddy is on a different level shooting the ball.  Both players may be available.  Draft net had the Celsius drafting both of them.

Dboss

I doubt we'll see all three first rounder's on the team next year.

I think Danny will look for NBA vets over more young guys, who we have to wait on to develop.

Valentine scares me as he may not quick enough to be a solid NBA player.

What did the draft have Fahrenheit getting?

I am not trading AB and the Nets pick for Butler.  AB is a two way player and a top defensive specialist on a cheap contract.  The Celtics have enough picks and cap space to avoid moving our core players.  A top 3 pick gets us a great player.  Too much to give up for Butler.

With respect to Mickey.  He did not get a chance to play a lot but every time I saw him play he did not disappointed me.

The roster you project is weak.  Not enough shooters.  

We need shooters and a rim protector.  

Dboss

We have 8 picks so how do we dump 6 picks?

Dboss

Dboss, yes keep AB...Don't trade so much for Butler.

So far most of the comments have been quite detailed when it comes to what is needed to take the Celtics to the next level. I must confess that I don't have the skill level needed to offer analytical opinions about potential moves that the Celtics should make to improve the Celtics fortunes. I prefer to view the future in terms of the historical past. For me personally having the Celtics in a position, talent wise,to be a legitimate contender to win it all is what I'm looking forward to.
From a historical perspective their are a couple of factors that dictate the core ingredients needed to successfully compete for a championship. Consider the following facts.
#1 - Since 1979-80 (37 years) the champ has, in 36 of those years, had at least 1 super star on the team. I define a super star as a player who in at least 70% of the years leading up to the championship year was an all-star. Or if a team is fortunate enough to have 2 or more players on the roster that were all-nba in years prior to the championship year that team is also a legitimate contender. The championship Detroit Team of 2003-04 was the only team that did not meet the above requirements.

#2 - Every team, except the Celtics of 2007-08, won at least 10 more games than it lost the year preceding the championship year. And that championship team of 2007-08 added Allen and Garnett to its roster prior to the 2007-08 season.

So as General Manger of this Celtic team, for openers I've got to get a super star or 2 players with all-nba credentials.

swish

dboss wrote:I am not trading AB and the Nets pick for Butler.  AB is a two way player and a top defensive specialist on a cheap contract.  The Celtics have enough picks and cap space to avoid moving our core players.  A top 3 pick gets us a great player.  Too much to give up for Butler.

With respect to Mickey.  He did not get a chance to play a lot but every time I saw him play he did not disappointed me.

The roster you project is weak.  Not enough shooters.  

We need shooters and a rim protector.  

Dboss

I assumed there that the Nets pick is not one of two...in that case Danny should keep it.

as for Bradley....Butler is a MUCH better overall player, IMO.

Smart can fill Bradleys' shoes as a shut down Defender (and do we need two of them?).

but you may be correct that the #3-5 pick, #31 and Bradley would be deemed too much. In that case I'd say Danny will NOT be trading to an existing NBA all- star. the prices are ALWAYS high on players in their primes and with BELOW market contracts.

the Nets pick might be a future all pro or maybe not. Time will tell on that one. I'll take the proven NBA all-star in his prime myself.

as for shooters, I added one the BEST 3 point shooters who are FA's this year (Bayless or Dudley, pick one).

can't do much better than that.

Is Whiteside NOT a rim protector?

what parts of Bob's tasks did I not meet?

But there are many other ways to go of course, maybe Butler really isn't on the block. or maybe no Max level FA big man would even think of playing here.

perhaps Danny ends up drafting Bender and he become the next Porzingis (or the next Bargnani).

lots of options and difference of opinions....one of the things that makes the off-season so much fun!!