Could the Celtics simply build through the draft?

SB NATION

By Jeff Clark


What if we can't find veteran stars? Do we have the patience to wait for more youngsters?

Most people are rightly focused on getting elite talent into a Celtics uniform, either via the draft, trade, or free agency (or some combination of the above). With the assets, cap room, and the sheer determination of a creative GM, many fans have high hopes that this summer is the year when we land a big fish.

But what happens if all the biggest fish swim away and leave us with nothing but a boat full of bait? It isn't a big leap to imagine guys like Kevin Durant, Jimmy Butler, Paul George, and DeMarcus Cousins all staying with their current teams. When you get past some of those big names, you really have to think long and hard before committing assets and cap room to the second-tier stars or big names on the downside of their careers.

The fallback option would be the slow and steady plan of building through the draft. Regardless of how the ping-pong balls bounce on Tuesday, the Celtics will have a high lottery draft pick and two other first-rounders to go with a handful of seconds.

They probably can't use all those picks on players that will be on the roster next year, but a few draft-'n-stash picks and some minor trades could make things much more manageable.

The plan would still be to find a star or superstar, and it is possible that one is in this year's draft class, waiting to be selected and developed by the Celtics--regardless of what selection they are picked at.

If that means adding another three or more rookies to the roster just to see if any of them work out, then maybe that's the best plan after all. One of these days we'll happen upon a transcendent talent just by sheer volume of picks.

The trick would be figuring out how to integrate them all into a young roster that has already tasted playoff success and doesn't want to take the presumptive step back that an even younger roster would seem to dictate.

In theory, Ainge could replace Amir Johnson, Evan Turner, Jonas Jerebko, Jared Sullinger, and Tyler Zeller in the rotation with Terry Rozier, RJ Hunter, Jordan Mickey and one or two of the rookies. Depending on what strides each of those youngsters makes this summer, that could even be a better rotation.

In fact, it is worth noting that the next great star could already be on the roster. Marcus Smart, Rozier, Hunter, or Mickey could (theoretically) make "the leap" at some point. After all, Isaiah Thomas was picked 60th and became an All Star in his 5th season. One of our guys could have a similar progression. You just can't count on that as your only plan.

Also, don't plan on a super-young roster making their way back to the playoffs (never mind getting past the first round). Young players take time to develop, and some of them simply don't pan out. The NBA tends to chew up and spit out young rosters.

Look no further than the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have a roster of future stars but still only managed 29 wins this year. Would Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, and most importantly Brad Stevens be satisfied with dipping back below .500 and missing the playoffs just for the outside shot of developing one of our kiddies for future stardom?

Even if the Celtics land a top-2 pick and have the chance to select one of the anointed future stars (Simmons or Ingram), they'll still have to decide if they have the patience to wait on that talent to mature into wins.

Of course it is never that simple. Teams outside of Philly seldom pick one specific plan and throw the rest to the wind. The Celtics will look at a mix of young players and veterans. Some veterans will be back, and some young players will be in other cities by the fall. But picking the right ones will make all the difference going forward. We don't want to jettison the next Joe Johnson while hanging onto the next Kedrick Brown.

As it has ever been, everything depends on how Danny Ainge navigates the next few months. He has to make the right picks, agree on the right trades, and negotiate the right contracts for free agents. If he can't make a franchise-altering trade or signing, then we may be seeing a few more peach-fuzz-faced kids in Waltham for training camp.

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Good article. I agree with that approach only for pick 1 or 2.

I think picking say, Bender, at #3 and becoming a 30-35 win team picking 7th-10th in the draft would be a huge disappointment.

The Celtics can swap picks with the Nets next year. If they are picking 10th and the Nets 7th that swap isn't that big a deal. But if we jumped the Raptors and became the #2 seed and had pick 25 or 26 and swapped that with #8 what a HUGE boost that becomes.

I think with Simmons or Ingram we can make that jump. One of those two will attract a good free agent defensive big and we'll get like Ezeli or Biyombo and challenge the Raptors and Heat (if they have Bosh) for seed #2 behind the Cavs. Then by 2017-18 when Ingram or Simmons are borderline all-stars and we add one more big free agent the C's can pass the Cavs and be in the finals.

If they don't land a top 2 pick I really think a trade that shakes things up is in order.

Whether it be current players like Amir, Young, Rozier, Jerebko and pick #3-6 to the Bulls for Butler and Taj Gibson

or a trade down to ensure themselves a big man they want to draft (Skal or Davis are likely choices) who they know they don't have to use pick 3-6 on. Say a swap with the Bucks (pick 9 or 10) where we send them Amir and also 2nd rd picks 51 and 58 and they send us John Henson (reasonable 4 yr 44 million deal kicks in next season) and pick 40.

Henson is what the fans hope Mickey's ceiling is. For now, the two of them can give this team 48 minutes of shot blocking, rebounding and rim-protection, while the C's have an offensive player at C (Olynyk) and a vet FA on a one year Amir type deal w/ an option who could be offense (Big Al) or defense (Noah) who help a playoff push and mentor the top 10 pick.

Keep Evan Turner on a similar one year deal w an option and add a foreign draft and stash guy at 16 in Korkmaz or Luwawa who can replace him in 1-2 years.

Hope either the Nets 2017 pick is top 3 or Durant signs a 1 year deal only in OKC, watches the Celtics go to the east finals, the Thunder fall in rd 2 and Westbrook bolt for the Lakers, and signs here.

Although many of us think that Ainge and the Cs need to swing for the fences this summer, I am sure that he has a plan that directly has us going the "draft" route as well for adding players in a way that is not free agency.

Even if he is willing to trade a first or second pick for a current star, any such star is also going to cost a bunch of players that Ainge and Stevens really like on our current roster to make salaries work. Giving up two of Bradley, Thomas or Crowder will certainly make things quite a bit more difficult next season for whomever the "star" he trades for. Perhaps in the long term this star will be beneficial (if he is currently young enough to still have most of his best years still ahead of him), but I could easily see a potential drop off happening next year.

Going the draft route may take a little longer, but the climb is likely to be steadily in the direction that we all want. I am going to doubt that even Ingram or Simmons are going to make a huge difference next year, but either might in his second season. Also, another of the first round picks may also be able to make a solid contribution by his second season.

Filling in next year for Johnson, Sullinger, Hunter and James Young should not be the toughest road to travel, and he can even keep Johnson, Hunter and Sullinger (if he sees fit) and the team will be improved next year. Unfortunately, I cannot let Ainge keep Young around any longer.

I could live with a slight improvement next season if it meant that Ingram or Simmons and at least one of the other first round picks (as well as Mickey and Rozier) get a good shot at making us better in 2017-18 as there is still a decent shot at another lottery pick next season due to being able to swap picks with the Nets.

GSW built through the draft.

The Celtics have enough picks; it's more a matter of patience.



KJ