Let me throw this one to wall and see if it sticks~!

swish wrote:

arambone wrote:

swish wrote:

arambone wrote:Olynyk for the 3rd season in a row had a top 2 +/- and oncourt/offcourt number on the Celtics.

When you guys talk about trading off Olynyk like he's some spare part, you're ultimately talking about trading off one of the 3-4 most valuable Celtics, and crossing your fingers and hoping the guy you trade for can make the same impact that Olynyk has already proven 3 times out of 3 seasons that he can make.

Dude shot 40% from 3 and played good/great positional defense.

Ibaka is in all likelihood years older than his stated age, and he's not even that good.

And Jerebko is another sneaky good guy, who also really stepped up in the playoffs when we needed him most.

My opinion of the +/-,  is that it is a useless stat as it applies to Olynyk. It simply reflects the fact that the 2nd team subs outscored the other teams scrubs. When he can do that with the varsity is when it will be a most notable feat. Now 25 years old and with 3 straight years of maxing out at 1400 minutes per year just might indicate that he is destined to be a capable role player off the bench. No more - no less

swish

Three years in a row. Last year you guys were giving all the credit to IT, who played off the bench with KO last year.

Just look at how the team did this past year once KO injured his shoulder. The team was in practical free fall. Now you guys are all begging for a good 3 point shooter, and eager to trade off our best 3 point shooter just for the heck of it.

 "Just look at how the team did this past year once KO injured his shoulder. The team was in practical free fall."

  I took your advice per your above statement.  Before the injury the team was 32-23 for a .582%. After the injury the Celts were 16-11 for a .593%.  Is that your definition of free fall?

 swish

whoops, I guess the stumbling into the playoffs started later.

Nevertheless, Celtics performed better in Olynyk's 20 mpg than they did in any other player's minutes except IT. Every single year, the team plays best or second best with Olynyk on the court.

15-16
#1 Thomas 32 mpg TEAM +3.6
#2 Olynyk 20 mpg TEAM +3.2

+/- per 100 possessions on the court

#1 Olynyk +7.3
#2 Thomas +5.3
#3 Sullinger +5.2
#4 Crowder +4.4
#5 Bradley +4.0
#6 Amir +3.6
#7 Smart +2.4
#8 Turner +2.1
#9 Jerebko + 1.3


Olynyk's +/- per 100 possessions is 3x-5x higher than all of his fellow bench players. Trying to give Smart, Turner, and/or Jerebko the credit for Olynyk's high +/- is very very wrong.


There's simply no denying that the team plays incredibly well with Olynyk on the court, year after year after year, playing alongside a revolving cast of reserves.


Olynyk is arguably the best backup center in the NBA, and if the Celtics ever had a REAL center, Olynyk would probably already be a top 10 starting power forward.

dboss wrote:KO is no starting center or PF for that matter.

dboss

I agree that he's no starting center, but starting PF is very debatable. And even if he's not a starting PF, he's one of the most valuable reserves in the NBA, and arguably one of the top 2 hardest Celtics to replace.

dboss wrote:KO is no starting center or PF for that matter.

dboss

Thanks for the opinion

kdp59 wrote:
I like it with your "b" option I think more than Barnes

seems like we would weak inside without a rim protector big of some sort.

unless we can land Davis at #14 and he is ready for prime time quicker than most think

That is a very attainable and scary good team in my opinion

C - Biyombo, Olynyk
PF - Gallinari, Gibson
SF - Crowder, Turner
SG - Butler, Hunter
PG - Thomas, Smart

3 elite defenders, 3 elite scorers, one definite all-star, two borderline ones in the starting 5

1 elite defender expected to develop a good offensive game, a very good shooting wing (if he takes the next step) who not even needed for the rotation, a clutch jack of all trades who drives other teams nuts, a non-nonsense good but not great at both ends of the floor playoff tested veteran with a high motor and a 7'er who shoots 40% from 3 off the bench.

What a horrible lineup.

Gallinari is not starting PF.  Plus since he is very likely to miss playing half the time he would be irrelevant

Biyombo had a nice playoff run but he is a backup center and always will be one unless he can at least score the basketball.  6.2 PPG in 20 playoff games.  Starting center?  I don't think so.

The backups are also questionable

You can start with Hunter.  He averaged 2.7 PPG and has yet to prove that he is ready to become the primary backup at shooting guard.  Maybe he will improve this year but I see no justification for plugging him into the 10 man rotation.

If you look at the 5 backups that is a horrible team.  KO is the only one that can make an outside shot.  

This roster stinks

dboss

Ram wrote:

kdp59 wrote:
I like it with your "b" option I think more than Barnes

seems like we would weak inside without a rim protector big of some sort.

unless we can land Davis at #14 and he is ready for prime time quicker than most think

That is a very attainable and scary good team in my opinion

C - Biyombo, Olynyk
PF - Gallinari, Gibson
SF - Crowder, Turner
SG - Butler, Hunter
PG - Thomas, Smart

3 elite defenders, 3 elite scorers, one definite all-star, two borderline ones in the starting 5

1 elite defender expected to develop a good offensive game, a very good shooting wing (if he takes the next step) who not even needed for the rotation, a clutch jack of all trades who drives other teams nuts, a non-nonsense good but not great at both ends of the floor playoff tested veteran with a high motor and a 7'er who shoots 40% from 3 off the bench.

In my opinion, there's no chance Chicago would trade Butler, Gibson and a late lottery pick for a non-top 5 pick and other spare parts.
The trade you proposed is very much slanted toward Boston.
Danny saw during the last draft that non-very high 1st round picks really don't have significant trade value.
Stars/Superstars in their prime rarely get traded because the team they play for, puts a very high, often unrealistic value on.

arambone wrote:

swish wrote:

arambone wrote:

swish wrote:

arambone wrote:Olynyk for the 3rd season in a row had a top 2 +/- and oncourt/offcourt number on the Celtics.

When you guys talk about trading off Olynyk like he's some spare part, you're ultimately talking about trading off one of the 3-4 most valuable Celtics, and crossing your fingers and hoping the guy you trade for can make the same impact that Olynyk has already proven 3 times out of 3 seasons that he can make.

Dude shot 40% from 3 and played good/great positional defense.

Ibaka is in all likelihood years older than his stated age, and he's not even that good.

And Jerebko is another sneaky good guy, who also really stepped up in the playoffs when we needed him most.

My opinion of the +/-,  is that it is a useless stat as it applies to Olynyk. It simply reflects the fact that the 2nd team subs outscored the other teams scrubs. When he can do that with the varsity is when it will be a most notable feat. Now 25 years old and with 3 straight years of maxing out at 1400 minutes per year just might indicate that he is destined to be a capable role player off the bench. No more - no less

swish

Three years in a row. Last year you guys were giving all the credit to IT, who played off the bench with KO last year.

Just look at how the team did this past year once KO injured his shoulder. The team was in practical free fall. Now you guys are all begging for a good 3 point shooter, and eager to trade off our best 3 point shooter just for the heck of it.

 "Just look at how the team did this past year once KO injured his shoulder. The team was in practical free fall."

  I took your advice per your above statement.  Before the injury the team was 32-23 for a .582%. After the injury the Celts were 16-11 for a .593%.  Is that your definition of free fall?

 swish

whoops, I guess the stumbling into the playoffs started later.

Nevertheless, Celtics performed better in Olynyk's 20 mpg than they did in any other player's minutes except IT. Every single year, the team plays best or second best with Olynyk on the court.

15-16
#1 Thomas 32 mpg  TEAM +3.6
#2 Olynyk  20 mpg  TEAM +3.2

+/- per 100 possessions on the court

#1 Olynyk   +7.3
#2 Thomas  +5.3
#3 Sullinger +5.2
#4 Crowder  +4.4
#5 Bradley   +4.0
#6 Amir       +3.6
#7 Smart     +2.4
#8 Turner     +2.1
#9 Jerebko +  1.3


Olynyk's +/- per 100 possessions is 3x-5x higher than all of his fellow bench players. Trying to give Smart, Turner, and/or Jerebko the credit for Olynyk's high +/- is very very wrong.


There's simply no denying that the team plays incredibly well with Olynyk on the court, year after year after year, playing alongside a revolving cast of reserves.


Olynyk is arguably the best backup center in the NBA, and if the Celtics ever had a REAL center, Olynyk would probably already be a top 10 starting power forward.

"There's simply no denying that the team plays incredibly well with Olynyk on the court, year after year after year, playing alongside a revolving cast of reserves."

Per your above statement I agree that he played with a revolving cast of reserves. Against, I would add, a cast of reserves. I assume that your numbers are accurrate in regards to the +/- numbers for the Celtic players which seems to make Olynyk the star of the subs. What bothers me is why Olynyk with his great +/- isn't playing top minutes with the starters. Could it be that its a useless stat and management has him correctly pegged for a bench role - Its a lot like like comparing a .300 batting average in the minors vs .300 in the majors. Below are the names of 21 "bigs" that had +/- lower than Olynyk's 3.2. They ranged from Horford's plus 2.8 all the way down to Okafors minus 9.3. Horford, Millsap, Gobert, Drumond, Favors, Whiteside, Gortat, Cousins, Bosh, Howard, M Gasol, Porzingis, P Gasol, Randolph, Vucevic, Monroe, Townes, B Lopez, Noel, Randle and Okafor. All played at least 28 minutes per game so they played with and against the best. In my opinion any number(+/-) by a bench player that even remotely suggest a superiority by a bench player over a legitimate starter deserves to be closely scrutinized.

swish

Dennis Eckersley won the Cy Young and AL MVP in 1992 as a bench player.

Doesn't mean he'd be the best starting pitcher.

Also doesn't mean every starting pitcher was automatically more valuable.

Olynyk is elite in his present role. He is more valuable in his reserve role than a lot of starters across the league.

It's also a lot easier to replace an average starter than it is to replace an Olynyk out of the bullpen.

Some of the best bullpen pitchers were probably terrible starting pitchers. Still very valuable.

arambone wrote:Dennis Eckersley won the Cy Young and AL MVP in 1992 as a bench player.

Doesn't mean he'd be the best starting pitcher.

Also doesn't mean every starting pitcher was automatically more valuable.

Olynyk is elite in his present role. He is more valuable in his reserve role than a lot of starters across the league.

It's also a lot easier to replace an average starter than it is to replace an Olynyk out of the bullpen.

Some of the best bullpen pitchers were probably terrible starting pitchers. Still very valuable.

A terrible comparison. Now your comparing Olynyk with super star relief pitchers who are called upon 3 or 4 times a week to come into a game at a very critical part of the game. Last year you were comparing him with Hall Of Famers Havlicek and McHale.I can't believe your making these comparisons.

swish

Here's an article about how the Cavs' dominant small ball lineup that includes Channing Frye at center, but Thompson, Love, AND Kyrie on the BENCH.

The Cavaliers' lineup of Matthew Dellavedova, Iman Shumpert, Richard Jefferson, LeBron James and Channing Frye has improbably become the best short-burst lineup in the playoffs after not sharing the court for a single minute in the regular season.

They boast the best net rating -- a ridiculous 48.4 points -- among units that have played at least 50 minutes together in the playoffs. For comparison, the Warriors' starting lineup ranks second at almost 24 points per 100 possessions.

http://www.sbnation.com/2016/5/26/11781600/cavaliers-lineup-lebron-james-channing-frye-breakdown-backup

arambone wrote:Here's an article about how the Cavs' dominant small ball lineup that includes Channing Frye at center, but Thompson, Love, AND Kyrie on the BENCH.

The Cavaliers' lineup of Matthew Dellavedova, Iman Shumpert, Richard Jefferson, LeBron James and Channing Frye has improbably become the best short-burst lineup in the playoffs after not sharing the court for a single minute in the regular season.

They boast the best net rating -- a ridiculous 48.4 points -- among units that have played at least 50 minutes together in the playoffs. For comparison, the Warriors' starting lineup ranks second at almost 24 points per 100 possessions.

http://www.sbnation.com/2016/5/26/11781600/cavaliers-lineup-lebron-james-channing-frye-breakdown-backup

I hope that the Celtics can grab them this summer. With those numbers they should be able to anchor the greatest offense in the history of the game.

swish

arambone wrote:

kdp59 wrote:

bobheckler wrote:

kdp59 wrote:Bob,
the trade happens after the new NBA year starts.

Cap room available.

First time I ever heard that Ibaka was older than his stated age was here a few days ago. I had heard that Biyombo was maybe 3 years older than his listed age.

Not sure why you think Ibaka isn't that good a player?

Kdp,

When did I say that I thought Ibaka wasn't a good player?


bob

.

sorry Bob, the last two sentences were in response to Rambone

Most of his stats have been going down for 3 years straight. I think his body might be slowly starting to break down. I don't know exactly how old he is, but he's stagnating at best, and likely declining not far behind Taj Gibson, J Noah, and Amir.

Toronto thought Amir was starting to break down, which worked out well for us, but we didn't need to give up a valuable player to get him.

I would take Gibson, Noah, Amir and Ibaka over KO in a heartbeat, all of them can defend and protect the rim, something that KO is totally deficient at that is crucial for a teams success, difference in Finals is Adams and Ibaka stopped everything inside and Cavs with Love and Thompson or Frye cannot defend Draymond Green. So defense and rebounding from a big still matters and its painful to watch Olynck get shoved around like a ragdoll while always getting the best/weakest match up to cover up for his limited abilities.

KO is a decent bench player for us. That's all. Next topic.

dboss wrote:What a horrible lineup.

Gallinari is not starting PF.  Plus since he is very likely to miss playing half the time he would be irrelevant

Biyombo had a nice playoff run but he is a backup center and always will be one unless he can at least score the basketball.  6.2 PPG in 20 playoff games.  Starting center?  I don't think so.

The backups are also questionable

You can start with Hunter.  He averaged 2.7 PPG and has yet to prove that he is ready to become the primary backup at shooting guard.  Maybe he will improve this year but I see no justification for plugging him into the 10 man rotation.

If you look at the 5 backups that is a horrible team.  KO is the only one that can make an outside shot.  

This roster stinks

dboss

Incorrect. It upgrades every position/role on a 48 win team and is a roster that would compete with the Cavs for the #1 seed in the east.

no way that team can compete

There are not enough reliable 3 point shooters including Butler and why on earth Gallinari is in there is a big mystery.

The guy is hurt half the time so how can he be even in the mix? Plus he is a horrible defender and I do not recall him ever being a good rebounder.

Nothing to see here ...move along!

dboss

dboss wrote:no way that team can compete

There are not enough reliable 3 point shooters including Butler and why on earth Gallinari is in there is a big mystery.

The guy is hurt half the time so how can he be even in the mix?  Plus he is a horrible defender and I do not recall him ever being a good rebounder.  

Nothing to see here ...move along!

dboss

Yup, your analysis of that roster is so bad you do need to move along

Butler is better than Bradley

Gallinari is better than Jerebko

Gibson is better than Sully (or at least more reliable, athletic, clutch and intimidating)  

Biyombo is better than Johnson

And we all expect IT, Turner and Crowder to repeat what they did this season, perhaps even get slightly better, while Smart and Hunter are both expected to take the type of jumps young players do and become MUCH better, while a healthy Olynyk will also be much better

Again, EVERY position in that 10 man rotation is better than what was in the rotation this season. EVERY position should have either a better shooter or the same player expected to be a better shooter than last year except for center, where you replace the capable (but thin, aging, and ankle issue) Johnson with a legit rim-protecting beast.

I am not saying that team is ready to win a title. They are just ready to give Cleveland a better fight than Toronto did and win 55-60 games. 

Move along if you cannot grasp that those are upgrades across the board.

Gallinari is not better than Jerebko, Gallinari has done nothing in this league except put up good to so and so numbers on a losing team.

Ram

Gallo should not be mentioned.  Please tell me how a guy that has missed more games than he's played over an 8 year period is an upgrade over anybody? The only upgrade he represents is an upgrade to the IR list.
 
Dboss

I'm afraid I started the Galinari stuff, after reading some stories about Denver looking to move him again this off-season.

I wasn't a fan last trade deadline when there were stories that Danny was looking at him.

At this time of the year, I read stories and then try to piece together a best case scenario around them for the Celtics. Doesn't mean I like or prefer the moves.

If anyone hears rumors of other players being available for trade and want me to try to build a team with that player...let me know....LOL.

cowens/oldschool wrote:Gallinari is not better than Jerebko, Gallinari has done nothing in this league except put up good to so and so numbers on a losing team.

Wow. Those are some serious homer glasses. Gallinari is WAY better than Jerebko.

dboss wrote:Ram

Gallo should not be mentioned.  Please tell me how a guy that has missed more games than he's played over an 8 year period is an upgrade over anybody? The only upgrade he represents is an upgrade to the IR list.
 
Dboss

It is true that Gallinari has had lots of injury issues over his career. If that scares you enough to not want to drop down 4 places in the draft to swap him out for Jerebko then so be it. I can't argue with someone who is simply convinced a player will not be on the court and therefore cannot help the team. He is currently healthy and planning to play for the Italian National team this summer. 

Gallinari is a professional scorer. He might hit 3's at the same % as Jerebko and average less rebounds per 36 minutes, but he also blows him away when it comes to PER and pretty much all other statistical categories and is an opponents 1st or 2nd option to stop when he is on the court, not 4th or 5th. There is simply no factually way to argue he is an inferior player when healthy.

dboss,

You conveniently avoided the fact that the roster I put together is still far superior to the one that was on the court at the end of this season. Gallo could get hurt and the team could give minutes to Mickey and up the minutes of Olynyk, Gibson and Biyombo and STILL be better than last year's club. 

tj mentioned Chicago is unlikely to move Butler if the pick were #7 instead of #3. That is possible, although I think if Brown or Hield were there (Butler replacements) or Bender or Poeltl as the future starter at the 4/5 to help with the Gasol/Noah losses they would still highly consider it. 

But fine, don't trade down with Denver, use pick #3 to acquire Butler, keep Jerebko on his one year deal and have him and Mickey as the 10th and 11th men who Stevens uses equally depending on whether the team needs offense or defense.

Butler and Biyombo are still upgrades to Bradley and Johnson. The reliable and athletic/in shape Gibson is still better than Sully and the rest of the roster full of 22-27 year old's should still be expected to improve.

Ram, the "when healthy" concern scratches Galli as a viable prospect...he's proven to be fragile over 8 years. That's a pretty big database to use in an analysis of his value.

worcester wrote:Ram, the "when healthy" concern scratches Galli as a viable prospect...he's proven to be fragile over 8 years. That's a pretty big database to use in an analysis of his value.

Ray Allen was a 32 year old SG with bad ankles at an age when SG's historically decline when Danny traded for him in 2007. He played in only 55 games the year before (less than Gallo) and hadn't played in 80 games since 2001. 

I get that Gallo has a far greater history of injuries over his career, including missing a whole season for an ACL. But his injuries last year were of the minor variety, he is healthy now and he doesn't turn 28 until August. It would appear to be just as risky a move as Ray was in 2007 when you think about it from an 'in that moment' perspective. Not a 'scratch him off completely' move. The KG trade wasn't known to be an option when Ray arrived and he was owed 53 million over 3 years. That is like 75 million in today's market. Gallo has a reasonable one year deal at 13-14 million then a player option for the same $ so similar to the Amir contract.

Risk reward. Rewards were much greater with Ray for the risk. He was an All-Star's all star who provided the promise of wrenching KG away from Minny. Galli doesn't offer that much reward for the risk.