My first "delusional" post about '16-'17

Our Celtics are going to surprise most of you this year, just like they surprised most of you last year.

Draft and free agency season is when the opinion makers get to flap their gums non-stop, without any intrusion of reality, aka actual basketball games. The general public and their favorite writers can get as carried away as they want, without any clue whatsoever that their collective hive mind has buzzed into some alternate reality.


The hardest thing to analyze in basketball is defense, which is why the opinion makers and general public ALWAYS forget about it in the summer time. The top 10 in most any mock draft is basically the top 10 offensive players, more or less. The top 10 winners in any draft recap are the teams who drafted for offense, provable offense. The top draft losers are always the teams who drafted for defense.

The second hardest thing to analyze in basketball, after defense, is a prospect's transition from the college game to the pros.

The third hardest thing to analyze might be how a player will fit into a particular NBA team, especially if that player played in a completely different style, or role in college.


Danny and Brad Stevens are smarter than 99.9% of the people running their mouths this summer, and that might be an underestimation. All these under the radar moves made by Boston are no match for the more flashy stories.


The Celtics aren't considered contenders, even though Vegas has us as a top 5 team. The 3rd best defense in the NBA just added a defensive upgrade at center in Al Horford, and just added the best athlete and most versatile defender in the draft in Jaylen Brown.

Offensively, our 3 point shooting just got better with Horford replacing Sullinger's chucks, and by subtracting Evan Turner's chucks as well.

But the most exciting change from last season might be Jaylen Brown's offense. I won't even try to convince you that he'll be a solid, 33% 3 point shooter as a rookie. I'm talking about something else.

Brown is probably the best 6'7" and over athlete in the entire NBA. He jumps like Blake Griffin or Aaron Gordon, but he's got a much quicker first step to go with it. There simply is no great comparison for him in today's NBA, other than Russell Westbrook, who is 4" shorter.

Brown played in the worst situation imaginable to showcase his athleticism at Cal last year. As such, the talking heads are sleeping in a huge way on this kid. This Celtics team, and coach, are absolutely perfect for allowing Brown to showcase his athleticism.

Not only do we have the stretch bigs who can pull BOTH big defenders out of the paint, but our pass happy motion offense means that Brown will be catching passes in motion, with momentum, and with all the daylight he needs to take it to the house over and over and over again.

Isaiah Thomas has been the only good dribble driver we've had since Pierce was in his prime. And Brown is going to be an even better dribble driver than either of those two.

What we have on our hands is a complete game changer, and the perfect system to showcase him in. Just as Emmit Smith owes some of his success to Dallas' amazing offensive line, Brown has found himself in the ideal environment to be an NBA star from Day 1.

I know some of you will say it's been just one summer league game, and it doesn't mean anything, but Brown's quickness, athleticism, and HUNGER will all translate amazingly well to real NBA competition.


This team is going to kick ass by playing even better defense than last year, shooting better than last year, and by having Brown and IT (and an improved Smart, Rozier, and Bradley) attack the rim over and over again.

Brown could average 7 FTAs a game as a rookie. For comparison, IT averaged 6.6FTA/game last year, and Crowder was second on our team with 3.3fta/g, and Smart was third with 2.7. Evan Turner was fourth with 2.2FTA/g.

Evan Turner was pretty good in isolation, but he was definitely a ball stopper. With our improved personnel, the motion offense will stagnate a lot less frequently.

Our bigs shoot the ball from 3 amazingly well, and Brown's dribble drives will create wide open 3 pointers for our bigs all day long. It's not that the Celtics didn't have good 3 point shooters last year, it's that our two best 3 point shooters, Olynyk and Jerebko, didn't get enough open looks, and didn't take enough shots.


Having a second elite dribble driver in Brown to go along with IT changes everything.

Expect the Celtics to flirt with 60 wins this year, and to play at that pace for most of the year.

Boston's moves this summer may not have been the flashiest, but every move fits into a very specific plan, and Brown is going to have the entire NBA talking from Game One. By the time Brown awes the world at the Dunk Contest, he will have already been a household name, and off limits in all Celtics fan trade scenarios.

well, I gotta like your excitement.

I would agree that barring any major injuries and adding another big man as a BU ( Zeller?) we should be in the mix in the east.

2-4th seed, I would suppose as things stand today.

this is another one of those tick tick tick posts. well researched, well reasoned, well 'ritten.
Yep delusional

Danny is still on his Plan A. He isn't deviating. KD was Plan B, go for the brass ring now. Horford is Plan A. upgrade when you can. We are so much better, NOW. Brown is clearly ready to contribute now. We have two Euro who could contribute now but will definitely contribute next year. The loss of a Sully or two only gives room for a second rounder to make the roster this fall. This is a team to get excited about! #changeiscoming time has come today

#17goingon18

This is a sports board.  Enthusiasm is a prerequisite and delusion is not uncommon.  The term 'fan' comes from fanatic.  Having done a pretty good job of predicting some players in the draft I'm inclined to cut arambone a little slack, he's earned some.  Time and actual results, of course, are the ultimate judges.

Arambone, I think you make a very good point about how our bigs can shoot.  This will open the floor for a driver/slasher like Brown who likes to create contact and go to the line.  He will thrive in such a system.  Hopefully his shooting will improve to where he can play more SG, where his size and length will provide him with physical advantages.  I'm already loving his ganas.  Maybe I'm a jerk too but I thought it was great when he dunked on that little kid because the kid was talking smack to him and told him that "Ben Simmons is better than you".  Paul Pierce punished every team who passed over him for years and years.  That's what we want.  Jaylen Brown has said he has something to prove.  Beautiful.  Prove it.

As far as Danny being smarter than 99.9% of the people out there I'd just point out that he is the one who drafted Fab Melo, and then tie that into your observation that the 3rd hardest thing is to predict how a college player will fit into a pro game.  As far as I am concerned, and this will probably make Beat's head explode, I don't think the Celtics should ever draft another player out of Jim Boeheim's system again.  Boeheim is a great recruiter and a great college coach, definitely HOF bound, but his system produces great individual players and not great team players.  Unfortunately, college coaches are working with boys and not men and can teach them only so much in the 1 year they'll be with them before the real talented ones jump to the NBA, but that's a flaw in the NBA CBA and not the college coaches.  I would be ecstatic, and NBA GMs probably would be too, if the next CBA forced players to be 2-and-done and not just 1-and-done.

We need another floor general, to replace Turner.  Brown might be a good dribble driver but that's not the same thing.

We need another outside shooter, preferably at the guard position.  An assassin.  JR Smith (gulp!)?

We need beef.  If Sully is gone we need a mastodon to stave off the few remaining dinosaurs walking the courts.  Frenchy?

My point in all this is that we are still far from a finished product.  Nice progress, nice pick up in Horford, a definite undisputed upgrade at that position, but we need more in other areas.  How much can we count on organic growth?

Rozier has looked very good in the first 2 summer league games.  I realize it's just summer league but he looks MUCH more ready than last year.
Hunter has been hitting his shots but he did that last year too.  Too soon to say.
Young had an awful first game and a pretty good 2nd one.  This is his final contract year.  Pick it up or pack it up or say hi to Iverson in Turkey.
Mickey has yet to play in summer league due to an injury doing, what else, blocking a shot.  I am really looking forward to that.

Assuming Amir and Jonas come back, smart bets, then we will have a similar team as last year but with the additions of Horford and Brown but the losses of Sully and Zeller and Turner.  Is that worth 12 more wins?  Hmmm.


bob


.

Yeah, Danny has passed over a lot of talented bigs in the drafts over the years, and definitely whiffed on Fab Melo among others.

As far as wins and losses, somebody on celticsblog made a good point that a handful of very winnable games were lost because Brad Stevens started the year with David F'n Lee and Tyler F'n Zeller as his starting front court for the first 5-8 games or whatever it was. Then there was the handful of wins that slipped away at the end of the year because of injuries.


Theoretically, last year's team was very much a 50+ win team, and with not only the additions to the roster, but also with a year of continuity, and a year of player development, it could all combine to a very real increase in wins.

While it's true that every team's players will develop with another year, teams that are the youngest and the best coached will improve the most internally. And the Celtics are still one of the youngest teams in the league, and obviously one of the better coached teams.

No doubt injuries will occur again this year, and it's entirely possible that Brad starts out the season with a poor starting lineup combination like last year, but I'd say we're probably looking at 55-60 wins barring major injuries to IT and or Horford.

Thanks for the responses, guys.

bobheckler wrote:This is a sports board.  Enthusiasm is a prerequisite and delusion is not uncommon.  The term 'fan' comes from fanatic.  Having done a pretty good job of predicting some players in the draft I'm inclined to cut arambone a little slack, he's earned some.  Time and actual results, of course, are the ultimate judges.

Arambone, I think you make a very good point about how our bigs can shoot.  This will open the floor for a driver/slasher like Brown who likes to create contact and go to the line.  He will thrive in such a system.  Hopefully his shooting will improve to where he can play more SG, where his size and length will provide him with physical advantages.  I'm already loving his ganas.  Maybe I'm a jerk too but I thought it was great when he dunked on that little kid because the kid was talking smack to him and told him that "Ben Simmons is better than you".  Paul Pierce punished every team who passed over him for years and years.  That's what we want.  Jaylen Brown has said he has something to prove.  Beautiful.  Prove it.

As far as Danny being smarter than 99.9% of the people out there I'd just point out that he is the one who drafted Fab Melo, and then tie that into your observation that the 3rd hardest thing is to predict how a college player will fit into a pro game.  As far as I am concerned, and this will probably make Beat's head explode, I don't think the Celtics should ever draft another player out of Jim Boeheim's system again.  Boeheim is a great recruiter and a great college coach, definitely HOF bound, but his system produces great individual players and not great team players.  Unfortunately, college coaches are working with boys and not men and can teach them only so much in the 1 year they'll be with them before the real talented ones jump to the NBA, but that's a flaw in the NBA CBA and not the college coaches.  I would be ecstatic, and NBA GMs probably would be too, if the next CBA forced players to be 2-and-done and not just 1-and-done.

We need another floor general, to replace Turner.  Brown might be a good dribble driver but that's not the same thing.

We need another outside shooter, preferably at the guard position.  An assassin.  JR Smith (gulp!)



We need beef.  If Sully is gone we need a mastodon to stave off the few remaining dinosaurs walking the courts.  Frenchy?

My point in all this is that we are still far from a finished product.  Nice progress, nice pick up in Horford, a definite undisputed upgrade at that position, but we need more in other areas.  How much can we count on organic growth?

Rozier has looked very good in the first 2 summer league games.  I realize it's just summer league but he looks MUCH more ready than last year.
Hunter has been hitting his shots but he did that last year too.  Too soon to say.
Young had an awful first game and a pretty good 2nd one.  This is his final contract year.  Pick it up or pack it up or say hi to Iverson in Turkey.
Mickey has yet to play in summer league due to an injury doing, what else, blocking a shot.  I am really looking forward to that.

Assuming Amir and Jonas come back, smart bets, then we will have a similar team as last year but with the additions of Horford and Brown but the losses of Sully and Zeller and Turner.  Is that worth 12 more wins?  Hmmm.


bob


.

Bob

Let me be the first to point out I CAN'T Stand Jim Boheim, don't think I have ever met a more arrogant SOB in my life. He is already in the HOF and that in itself is a joke. Man is so set in his ways that coming out of that friggin zone is like pulling wisdom teeth. He was much more involved with the Fab Melo scandal at Syracuse than most people are aware of and thought that taking a few games off would placate the NCAA. He was dead ass wrong about that too. 

And my Syracuse connection points out daily that JB is rarely at their practices and sits in his office watching Hopkins do the work. Wish they would fire him (JB).
and to note Hopkins has done the vast majority of recruiting the past 6-8 years too perhaps even longer.

His system for lack of a better term SUCKS.

My head is far from exploding but to have you even think I think he is a good coach is wrong. So he's won nearly 1000 games. Hell Stevie wonder could have won 500-600 of those. 10-12 cupcakes a year for 30 years?  

I'd continue my rant but I make my point.  I'd only pick an Orange.........if I was eating one !

beat

beat wrote:

bobheckler wrote:This is a sports board.  Enthusiasm is a prerequisite and delusion is not uncommon.  The term 'fan' comes from fanatic.  Having done a pretty good job of predicting some players in the draft I'm inclined to cut arambone a little slack, he's earned some.  Time and actual results, of course, are the ultimate judges.

Arambone, I think you make a very good point about how our bigs can shoot.  This will open the floor for a driver/slasher like Brown who likes to create contact and go to the line.  He will thrive in such a system.  Hopefully his shooting will improve to where he can play more SG, where his size and length will provide him with physical advantages.  I'm already loving his ganas.  Maybe I'm a jerk too but I thought it was great when he dunked on that little kid because the kid was talking smack to him and told him that "Ben Simmons is better than you".  Paul Pierce punished every team who passed over him for years and years.  That's what we want.  Jaylen Brown has said he has something to prove.  Beautiful.  Prove it.

As far as Danny being smarter than 99.9% of the people out there I'd just point out that he is the one who drafted Fab Melo, and then tie that into your observation that the 3rd hardest thing is to predict how a college player will fit into a pro game.  As far as I am concerned, and this will probably make Beat's head explode, I don't think the Celtics should ever draft another player out of Jim Boeheim's system again.  Boeheim is a great recruiter and a great college coach, definitely HOF bound, but his system produces great individual players and not great team players.  Unfortunately, college coaches are working with boys and not men and can teach them only so much in the 1 year they'll be with them before the real talented ones jump to the NBA, but that's a flaw in the NBA CBA and not the college coaches.  I would be ecstatic, and NBA GMs probably would be too, if the next CBA forced players to be 2-and-done and not just 1-and-done.

We need another floor general, to replace Turner.  Brown might be a good dribble driver but that's not the same thing.

We need another outside shooter, preferably at the guard position.  An assassin.  JR Smith (gulp!)



We need beef.  If Sully is gone we need a mastodon to stave off the few remaining dinosaurs walking the courts.  Frenchy?

My point in all this is that we are still far from a finished product.  Nice progress, nice pick up in Horford, a definite undisputed upgrade at that position, but we need more in other areas.  How much can we count on organic growth?

Rozier has looked very good in the first 2 summer league games.  I realize it's just summer league but he looks MUCH more ready than last year.
Hunter has been hitting his shots but he did that last year too.  Too soon to say.
Young had an awful first game and a pretty good 2nd one.  This is his final contract year.  Pick it up or pack it up or say hi to Iverson in Turkey.
Mickey has yet to play in summer league due to an injury doing, what else, blocking a shot.  I am really looking forward to that.

Assuming Amir and Jonas come back, smart bets, then we will have a similar team as last year but with the additions of Horford and Brown but the losses of Sully and Zeller and Turner.  Is that worth 12 more wins?  Hmmm.


bob


.

Bob

Let me be the first to point out I CAN'T Stand Jim Boheim, don't think I have ever met a more arrogant SOB in my life. He is already in the HOF and that in itself is a joke. Man is so set in his ways that coming out of that friggin zone is like pulling wisdom teeth. He was much more involved with the Fab Melo scandal at Syracuse than most people are aware of and thought that taking a few games off would placate the NCAA. He was dead ass wrong about that too. 

And my Syracuse connection points out daily that JB is rarely at their practices and sits in his office watching Hopkins do the work. Wish they would fire him (JB).
and to note Hopkins has done the vast majority of recruiting the past 6-8 years too perhaps even longer.

His system for lack of a better term SUCKS.

My head is far from exploding but to have you even think I think he is a good coach is wrong. So he's won nearly 1000 games. Hell Stevie wonder could have won 500-600 of those. 10-12 cupcakes a year for 30 years?  

I'd continue my rant but I make my point.  I'd only pick an Orange.........if I was eating one !

beat

Beat,

Ok. I know you are a big SU fan, go to many of their sport events. I'm glad that a person with more knowledge and experience with Boeheim and his system agrees with me.


bob


.

Not a fan of the men's hoop program!

its not "frenchy" , Bob.....

it's

Ya-bu-sele'

say it French style my man!

Yabu-sele'

Yabu-sele'

that's it!!

hell, I think his ass is bigger than Sullys......just sayin'

Remember when Pierce took the NBA by storm as a rookie in 1999?

I don't envision that from Brown, he is a year younger and played 2 less seasons of college ball and all that. But I could see him making the biggest impact of any rookie since Pierce. He will be exciting that's for sure.

As delusional posts go, that's a pretty good one.

May your delusions become reality.