CELTICS’ ACTIONS INDICATE THEY’RE STILL ANGLING FOR A BLOCKBUSTER

http://www.csnne.com/boston-celtics-russell-westbrook-blake-griffin-nba-trade-rumor-tyler-zeller-angling-for-blockbuster



CELTICS’ ACTIONS INDICATE THEY’RE STILL ANGLING FOR A BLOCKBUSTER



By Kevin O'Connor


July 19, 2016 3:07 PM




It often appears the Celtics try to operate behind a veil of secrecy. But if you want to get an idea of what they're attempting to do, look at their actions.

Their rookies are still unsigned and they still haven’t made a decision on Tyler Zeller. That keeps them in position to make a potential blockbuster trade.

Last summer, the Celtics held off on finalizing contracts and trades that had been agreed to in principle in order to maintain maximum flexibility. They waited until late July to sign their two first-round draft choices, to formally re-sign Jae Crowder, and to make the David Lee trade official. That all happened on July 27, because that's when the path to acquire a star had finally been exhausted.

They're waiting for that chance again this summer.

Teams have handed out money like candy this offseason and Zeller missed out on all the fun as a restricted free agent. That makes his situation particularly compelling from a big-picture perspective.

The Celtics can withdraw their qualifying offer of $3.7 million at any point through July 23, and they have the right to match any offer sheet Zeller might sign. The issue is there only seven teams with enough cap space to make him an attractive offer. Most of those teams have already acquired centers this summer, and others are already loaded at the position. The chances of any of them tossing money at Zeller seems improbable.

Teams over the cap could sign Zeller to an offer sheet using an exception, but the lone exception more lucrative than Boston’s qualifying offer of $3.7 million is the mid-level, which is worth $5.6 million.

You’d think Zeller, still just 26 and a proven rotational center, would have received an offer like that already. In fact, it’s quite possible that he has but hasn’t signed it. And if he hasn't, then he’s still waiting to sign his qualifying offer.

Why?

The conventional answer is that he’s hoping to negotiate a new contract with the Celtics. But the more probable reason is that Zeller is aware of a potential sign-and-trade scenario that’d pay him an exorbitantly large sum of money.

Remember Keith Bogans? When the Celtics traded Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to Brooklyn, the Nets needed a salary to make the deal valid. So they signed Bogans for $5 million and included him in the trade. It’s technically more complex than that, but, in a nutshell, Bogans’ bloated contract made the trade legal.

Of all the star players whose names have been discussed as options for the Celtics, there’s really only one in which a sign-and-trade for Zeller would actually be necessary. It’s the one no one takes seriously because it sounds so outrageous: The scenario where the Celtics acquire both Russell Westbrook and Blake Griffin.

That's what the Thunder are hoping to do next summer, according to The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski. But the Celtics, theoretically, are a team with the assets to do that now.

Let’s play it out. Let’s say the Celtics were to acquire Westbrook, and he extended his contract to keep him signed until the summer of 2018. At that point, the Celtics would have almost no cap space. So if they were to then trade for Griffin, it’d be necessary to use a sign-and-trade for Zeller to make it work.

The value of the contract would vary greatly depending on which players were given in return for Westbrook and Griffin. But no matter the amount, it’d be for a hell of a lot more than his qualifying offer of $3.7 million. Double. Triple. Maybe even quadruple. Based on the cards Zeller has been dealt, it’s a no-brainer for him to wait . . . even if there’s only a miniscule chance of a blockbuster trade.

Contrary to popular belief, the Clippers aren’t rebuilding if they do trade Griffin. They’d simply be shuffling the deck to find a better mix, and adding assets (like a Nets pick) in the process. So there's a reason Zeller and the Clippers could do business. Despite signing two veteran power forwards, Los Angeles still needs a true backup center; Doc Rivers absolutely isn’t playing either of his two rookies. Zeller’s salary would also be non-guaranteed after the first year, making him a valuable trade asset entering the 2017 offseason.

The names and faces involved in this wild hypothetical scenario also have a history of making successful high-stakes business transactions. Trust is integral to any relationship, especially one with implications so significant.

Rivers and Danny Ainge worked together for years in Boston. And Ainge and OKC general manager Sam Presti have worked together numerous times, too. Presti’s first move as GM sent Ray Allen to Boston, and years later they made the shocking Jeff Green-for-Kendrick Perkins swap.

Two of the key players involved, Zeller and Griffin, happen to be represented by Excel Sports Management agents Sam Goldfeder and Jeff Schwartz. They also represent Boston’s master recruiter, Isaiah Thomas, who’s been in California this past week. Clippers forward Paul Pierce is also represented by Schwartz. Remember when Kevin Love showed up with Schwartz at a Red Sox game and they happened to bump into Rajon Rondo?

There is history, both in regards to actions and relationships, to suggest that all the ingredients are there for this so-called pipedream of a trade scenario to materialize. Enough of a chance, certainly, that Zeller and his agent are actually willing to bide their time in the hopes of landing a situation in which the payoff and opportunity would potentially be greater.

And in the more likely event that there's no trade, Zeller could still sign his $3.7 million qualifying offer with the Celtics. Or an offer sheet with another team. But he doesn't have to do it now, and he may benefit by waiting.

Want to know what’s actually outrageous? Thinking the Celtics are just waiting to sign their rookies because they haven't gotten around to it. Thinking that a young, cheap player like Zeller will go unsigned. Thinking that the Celtics aren’t actually angling to make a franchise-altering move.

There’s no guarantee it happens. The chances are it probably won’t, considering the complexity of the situation. If they re-sign Tyler Zeller and/or sign the rookies, that’s when you'll know it’s over.

But for now, the Celtics are taking the necessary actions to assure they can have a whale of an offseason if the opportunity presents itself.


bob
MY NOTE:  Ok, first of all, Trader Danny never sleeps so of course he's angling for something and of course it's a blockbuster since he has made it very plain and clear he is big-game hunting.  Identifying the still as-yet unsigned Tyler Zeller as evidence of him being used for a sign-and-trade is clever.  By doing it like that it gives Danny the flexibility to sign Zeller for whatever number his trading partner is willing to pay Zeller and, perhaps, reduces whatever additional players have to be included to make the numbers work.

Good analysis, plausible conclusion ("If they re-sign Tyler Zeller and/or sign the rookies, that’s when you'll know it’s over.") albeit starting from an obvious premise.  


.

I hope that once Danny exhausts the miniscule chance for such a blockbuster that he makes a trade for a legit center that might not be as sexy but helps shore up an area of weakness before the season starts. 

I see now why they didn't just release their hold on Zeller and give all remaining cap space to Ezeli. I see what Danny is holding out for. But since it is so unlikely to happen, come May I know we'd REALLY want Ezeli in green.

Ram wrote:I hope that once Danny exhausts the miniscule chance for such a blockbuster that he makes a trade for a legit center that might not be as sexy but helps shore up an area of weakness before the season starts. 

I see now why they didn't just release their hold on Zeller and give all remaining cap space to Ezeli. I see what Danny is holding out for. But since it is so unlikely to happen, come May I know we'd REALLY want Ezeli in green.

Ezeli was signed by Portland on 7/8/16.

The C's could still use a rim-protector and play-making forward who can shoot

Two teams who could satisfy both of those objectives are the Kings and Sixers. 

If the superstar route is exhausted then I would look to trade for Rudy Gay and Kosta Koufos from Sacramento or Nerlens Noel and Dario Saric of the Sixers.

We've discussed the Sixers guys before and what it will take (protected Nets picks or multiple 1st rounders). I personally haven't discussed the other two guys since the trade deadline on BDC but I think they would fit well here as long as Gay can check his ego and likely play less minutes than any season since his rookie year (27), work to fit his talents into our system (not the other way around), play some of the most inspired defense of his career and hit 35%+ from 3 like he has in four of his 10 seasons. 

Koufos would simply be a solid 1-2 place holder for Zizic. A guy who can make you think twice about attacking the rim and who has some solid per 36 numbers of around 12 points, 11 boards and 1.7 blocks on 53% shooting with PER's in the 14-17 range. We'd need that production in just like 10-14 minutes per game.

tjmakz wrote:

Ram wrote:I hope that once Danny exhausts the miniscule chance for such a blockbuster that he makes a trade for a legit center that might not be as sexy but helps shore up an area of weakness before the season starts. 

I see now why they didn't just release their hold on Zeller and give all remaining cap space to Ezeli. I see what Danny is holding out for. But since it is so unlikely to happen, come May I know we'd REALLY want Ezeli in green.

Ezeli was signed by Portland on 7/8/16.

Right. I commented shortly after his signing for only like 2 years 15 million that it was a steal and Ainge coul've trumped that offer at like 2/18 with our remaining space if he released the holds on Sully/Zeller. At the time I was annoyed but I see now why Ainge didn't use all our remaining cap space to give Ezeli more money than Portland did.

I would trade Rozier, Jerebko, Zeller (S&T), Young and maybe one of the non-Net's 2018 1st rd picks to make this happen. 

C - Olynyk (26 mins), Koufos (14), Horford (
PF - Horford (26 mins), Amir (14), Crowder (
SF - Gay (28 mins), Crowder (20)
SG - Bradley (26 mins), Brown (14), Smart (
PG - Thomas (30 mins), Smart (18)

Bench/D-League: Jackson, Hunter, Nader, Bentil, Mickey

Fun 'death lineup' of Horford, Crowder, Gay, Thomas and one of Bradley/Smart (or even Brown if he really develops fast). 

Thing about this move is it lets Brown develop slower than he currently will be expected to and Gay should opt-out of 14m option for 2017-18, looking for one last big deal, something a little above the 4/72 Deng just got, for his age 31-34 seasons. The C's will be chasing Hayward and Griffin but Gay could remain a secondary target (with guys like Gallo and Redick) if he fits here this season.  

In 2017 the C's will hopefully add one of the above veteran FA's, a top 3 pick and have Yabu and Zizic ready to replace Amir and the yet unknown 4th/5th big man Danny needs to acquire.

Never been a big fan of Gay.

also I think Rosier could be real special. Jackson is a year out from backing up at the point.

Crowder is not a PF

dboss

dboss wrote:Never been a big fan of Gay.

also I think Rosier could be real special.  Jackson is a year out from backing up at the point.

Crowder is not a PF

dboss

As a UConn alum I've never been a big Rudy Gay fan either, which is why I listed like 5 things he'd have to do (check ego, play less mins, play best D of career, hit 3's at a % he has in his 4 best seasons, conform to Stevens system) in order to fit here. 

Rozier could be special sure, or he could just be a quality backup. When you have 3 similar players in Bradley, Rozier and Smart one needs to become trade bait to fill the holes. 

Jackson is not the backup in my scenario, Smart is. 

Crowder and Gay can easily man both forward positions for 8-12 minutes a game in the small ball NBA, c'mon now. When the Warriors go Durant and Iggy at the 3 and 4 do you put Gay or Crowder on Durant or do you put Amir/Olynyk on him? Ha!

Ram wrote:

dboss wrote:Never been a big fan of Gay.

also I think Rosier could be real special.  Jackson is a year out from backing up at the point.

Crowder is not a PF

dboss

As a UConn alum I've never been a big Rudy Gay fan either, which is why I listed like 5 things he'd have to do (check ego, play less mins, play best D of career, hit 3's at a % he has in his 4 best seasons, conform to Stevens system) in order to fit here. 

Rozier could be special sure, or he could just be a quality backup. When you have 3 similar players in Bradley, Rozier and Smart one needs to become trade bait to fill the holes. 

Jackson is not the backup in my scenario, Smart is. 

Crowder and Gay can easily man both forward positions for 8-12 minutes a game in the small ball NBA, c'mon now. When the Warriors go Durant and Iggy at the 3 and 4 do you put Gay or Crowder on Durant or do you put Amir/Olynyk on him? Ha!

If DA wanted Gay he would not have drafted Brown.

Rosier, Bradley and Smart are all guards but that is where their similarities end at least on the offensive side of the ball.  Neither Bradley or Smart are good fits at the point.  Rosier seems more comfortable there snd I suspect that his handle is significantly better.  Smart does not look to be a PG at all.  We saw in the past what happens when AB tried to be the pg.  

anyways I think there are a lot of questions regarding your proposed trade but they are very interesting.

dboss

dboss wrote:
If DA wanted Gay he would not have drafted Brown.

Rosier, Bradley and Smart are all guards but that is where their similarities end at least on the offensive side of the ball.  Neither Bradley or Smart are good fits at the point.  Rosier seems more comfortable there snd I suspect that his handle is significantly better.  Smart does not look to be a PG at all.  We saw in the past what happens when AB tried to be the pg.  

anyways I think there are a lot of questions regarding your proposed trade but they are very interesting.

dboss

Thanks

Ainge wanted to trade the 3rd pick for Butler, not draft Brown, he just took someone young he liked with a real high ceiling, a raw teenager. Then Ainge wanted to sign Durant, a 6'9" forward with similar (just much better) skills as Gay has. Deciding to trade for Gay at the end of a time period where Ainge struck out on trading for/signing better players wouldn't really have anything to do with drafting Brown. Gay is on a one year deal he will likely opt out of. If Danny thinks that it is worth investing an asset like Rozier for, because it should absolutely give the C's a chance to beat the Cavs and b/c it doesn't force Brown to contribute big mins right away, than you do it. Koufos is also part of the deal.  

Gay could also be here for the long-term and fit alongside a rapidly developing Brown if he pulls an Evan Turner esque career move. Gay could transition to a Posey bench forward, playing the 3 and 4 and bringing offensive punch in 22-26 mins the way Posey brought 3 and D. I'd rather pay Gordon Hayward the max of like 4/120 next offseason for his age 28-31 seasons than pay Gay what Turner/Deng got for his age 31-34 seasons, but the Celtics can't be guaranteed that type of FA success.

And yes dboss, if Rozier (spelled with a Z btw) is special like you think, then the Celtics will have 3 similar guards and will almost certainly need to move on from one of them by the 2018 trade deadline. 

Thomas is the one who is least like any of the others. Nit-pick the individual skills all you want, Bradley can't play point, Smart can't shoot, Rozier is a mix of both. But bottom line is they are all 6'2"-6'4" guards in their 20's with favorable contracts who will feel they deserve to start, play 30+ mins a game and get shiny new market value contracts/max extensions in 2 years or so. Are they really going to play Thomas, Rozier, Bradley and Smart each 24 minutes a game and then give them all 15-20 million per year deals in 2018-2019? 

Oh and Smart is still very much the backup PG. This is the season he proves whether he can make that big jump to a Billups/Dennis Johnson type PG in his prime or if he is destined to be a Tony Allen type 2 guard.

Rozier might blow up during the regular season and actually increase his trade value. Or he might not. Right now I think he has enough of it to be one of the major pieces used to acquire someone like Gay or Nerlens Noel b/c they are going to command huge contract extensions next summer. 

The more time Bradley, Smart and Rozier all spend on the Celtics under their current bargain deals (especially Bradley who won't be a RFA and is the oldest of the 3) the less trade value they have.

Ram

I got the impression that Ainge drafted Ro-Z-ier because he concluded that Marcus Smart was not the answer at PG.

But Smart does other things really well so he is a player you would want to keep. But as you stated contracts down he road have to be considered. The key is to sell high and buy low.

I definitely would not use Rozier as a trade chip to get Rudy Gay. Noel...? ... maybe but not Gay. And to think that i did not even like the pick last year.

dboss

To me Rozier is probably the better PG than Smart right now, and going forward. Smart's a great secondary ball handler, but he can't get where he wants to go at will like Rozier can.

IT is an all star, but I'm not sure he's much better than Rozier overall when you factor in defense. I think Rozier might now be good enough that depending on the opposing pg, Rozier may very well be the #1 man for the job in certain situations.

Last year Rozier played conservatively and didn't step on the toes of veterans, but now that he's a veteran and one year better than he was last year, I think Brad and Danny are eager to see Rozier play at full speed and without reservation.

dboss wrote:Ram

I got the impression that Ainge drafted Ro-Z-ier because he concluded that Marcus Smart was not the answer at PG.

But Smart does other things really well so he is a player you would want to keep.  But as you stated contracts down he road have to be considered.  The key is to sell high and buy low.  

I definitely would not use Rozier as a trade chip to get Rudy Gay.  Noel...?  ... maybe but not Gay.  And to think that i did not even like the pick last year.

dboss

Ainge drafted Rozier because he dominated other PG's during workouts and was the best available player based on Danny's rankings. It was not an indication that they gave up on Smart after only 1 season. The desperation trade offer to get Winslow showed who Danny really wanted in that draft. 

I too was not happy with the pick at the time or pretty much anything involving the C's late run to the playoffs that ended in a lame sweep. The C's won 9 of their final 11 games in 2015. If they went 6-5 in that stretch they would have been in a tiebreaker with the Heat for pick #10, so a 50-50 shot at Winslow and a consolation prize or Myles Turner (or maybe Devin Booker). I'd still take all 3 of those players over Rozier right now. I might even prefer Portis to him. He basically showed the same improvement and chance to be special in this summer league as Rozier did and would have filled a much bigger positional need. 

At 16 last year I wanted Portis or Dekker. Glad the C's didn't get Dekker as he did nothing as a rookie. Jerebko will be a better player for 2 seasons than him and I hope the C's get a guy like Hayward next summer who would make having Dekker irrelevant. While I am finally happy that Rozier is justifying his selection and overachieving, where a guy drafted in a similar spot who I liked at the time of the draft (Young) is fading into oblivion, I think he is now being overrated by C's fans with the green tinted glasses on. The two posts above by you and abone are really hyping him up beyond what should be expected. He's not better than Smart or Thomas yet.

[quote="arambone"]To me Rozier is probably the better PG than Smart right now, and going forward. Smart's a great secondary ball handler, but he can't get where he wants to go at will like Rozier can.

IT is an all star, but I'm not sure he's much better than Rozier overall when you factor in defense. I think Rozier might now be good enough that depending on the opposing pg, Rozier may very well be the #1 man for the job in certain situations.

Last year Rozier played conservatively and didn't step on the toes of veterans, but now that he's a veteran and one year better than he was last year, I think Brad and Danny are eager to see Rozier play at full speed and without reservation.
[/                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   I  can see Rozier playing either guard spot. In my opinion, Bradley and Smart are not now , and never will be , primary ballhandlers. I don`t see  Gay adding anything to the guard group or  getting significant minutes on the wing. I`m for throwing Brown out there 10 or 12 minutes a game. Crowder`s not a PF , but he can handle it in a small ball lineup.