TOP 5 STRENGTHS OF THE 2016-17 CELTICS

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TOP 5 STRENGTHS OF THE 2016-17 CELTICS


By A. Sherrod Blakely





5.  Rebounding





Getting worked over on the boards happened way too often to Boston last year as they ended up 19th in the NBA in Rebounding Percentage (.494).  But when you look at how this roster is constructed those days should be a thing of the past.  In Horford, Boston has an 8.9 rebound/game big man who should help solidify their interior board game now that Jared Sullinger is no longer on the roster.  Amir Johnson averaged 6.9 rebounds per game but did it in only 22.8 minutes per game.  Boston should also benefit from its guards, especially Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier, who have shown the ability to rebound well in traffic and snatch long rebounds too.


4.  X-Factors





There's always a player or two who have the potential to surprise and seemingly come out of nowhere and develop into a consistent, reliable contributor but not necessarily get to achieve go-to status.  That was the role Evan Turner played last year.  He's gone now but there are several players on this roster who could fill that role.  We start with Terry Rozier, who was easily the most impressive player on the Celtics summer league team.  Regular season play is a different story, I get that.  Still, that doesn't diminish the job Rozier did this summer and how poised he is among the returnees to have a breakout season.  Boston also added Gerald Green, who can get you 30 points on any given night.  Jaylen Brown showed glimpses of making a healthy living at the free throw line this summer, which bodes well for his being able to make an early impact.



3.  Rim Protection





When it came to the Celtics last line of defense it was often Amir Johnson and...Amir Johnson.  But the addition of Al Horford will make it even harder for teams to score on the Celtics.  And remember, Boston limited opponents to only 44.1 shooting percentage, tied for 7th best in the league last season.  Now that Johnson will have one of the league's better defensive big men beside him along with what should be a strong group of perimeter defenders led by All-NBA First Team defender Avery Bradley, scoring around the rim against Boston - and that's assuming you even get deep enough to get an attempt off - will be no small feat.  


2.  Athleticism





In talking with scouts who watch the Celtics play all season, many of them are impressed with the skill level on display from most of their players.  However, Boston has not exactly been known in recent years as the most athletic bunch in the world.  Well, it's clear the Celtics plan to change that in a hurry.  Drafting Jaylen Brown with the 3rd pick in the draft last month provides Boston with one of the best athletes in the entire draft class.  We've all seen what a physical freak Gerald Green can be.  And while he's 30 years old now, Gerald Green can still play above the rim with the best of them.  Terry Rozier got a chance to showcase his elite athleticism this summer, which should be more on display now that Evan Turner is gone.


1.  Experience





When last season started Boston ranked among one of the youngest teams in the NBA.  And with minimal change throughout the season, the baby-faced Celtics kept their youthful glow.  But as those players grow in their experience and knowledge of the game, Boston has done its part to increase their veteran presence beyond the usual on-the-job experience.  Adding 30-year old Al Horford was a major step forward in Boston's quest to get past the first round of the playoffs.  Not only does he represent the first major free agent signing by Boston of a player still in his prime, but it also provides them with a battle-tested player who understands all too well just how tough it is to win in the playoffs.  Having experienced a slew of highs and lows in his 9 NBA seasons as well as those he spent overseas, Gerald Green's value might extend beyond his highlight reel skills.  Green is an example of what can happen to you if you get too caught up in the hype early in your career.  The 6'8" Green has talent worth far more than his veteran's minimum contract.  Buthaving not put the work in at an earlier age to become an all-round talented player - something he has made tremendous strides into doing the last few years - left him little choice this offseason.  That talent can only help a talented team on the rise like the Celtics, grounded in what should be their focus which is continued improvement in all phases of the game.



bob
MY NOTE:  Paints quite the rosy picture, doesn't he?  

What he doesn't mention is the loss of Turner.  His rebounding, his floor generalship which allowed IT to play off the ball, his ball handling.  Terry Rozier, as good as he looked against players on the bubble-of-making-the-bubble (i.e. summer league) has not shown he can be Turner's replacement in the regular season, where the players really are sharks and not goldfish with dorsal fins strapped to their backs.

What he doesn't mention is that, while Al Horford brings us 7.3 rpg in 32.1 minutes of play (8.2/36mpg), Jared Sullinger gave us 8.3 rpg in just 23.6 minutes (12.7/36mpg).  The 8.9 rpg number that Blakely used was his career rebounding average, not last year's.  Horford hasn't averaged over 8.4 rpg since 2012-2013.

What he doesn't mention is that every team has one or two of those "X-factor" players.  Last year it was CJ McCollum for Portland, for example.


.

I think Rozier will be better than Turner was by December, and Jaylen Brown will be better than Turner by March.

The Celtics are going to be even better defensively and even more athletic and faster paced, and Rozier and Brown fit in with that perfectly.

Everything that Rozier and Brown do well will be encouraged to the max by Brad and Danny, and their weaknesses won't be overly harped on by the coaches.

Celtics were like 4th fastest paced team and 4th best defense last year, and Brad and Danny have said they want to get even faster.

Rozier kept himself in check last year, and he was also adjusting to the level of competition, but from day one of this season, he's done being polite and deferential to all the vets.

Rozier is a night and day better defender than Thomas, is almost as good a dribble driver, and is a much better rebounder. Thomas is a better 3 point shooter and all around scorer, but Rozier is improving rapidly as a scorer.

Both Rozier and Brown are much better athletes than Turner, and both are going to get to the FT line at a much higher rate than Turner did. Turner was great at pulling up for the short jumper, but he was an average athlete with zero 3 point shot, and I don't think he was any better a passer as Rozier or Brown.

Turner was definitely clutch, but Rozier and Brown are going to be at least as good, this year.

Two of the best athletes in the NBA, with hyper-aggressive playing styles and good/great ball handling. Exactly the kind of player Brad and Danny want. Two variations of Russell Westbrook.

What he doesn't mention is the loss of Turner.  His rebounding, his floor generalship which allowed IT to play off the ball, his ball handling.  Terry Rozier, as good as he looked against players on the bubble-of-making-the-bubble (i.e. summer league) has not shown he can be Turner's replacement in the regular season, where the players really are sharks and not goldfish with dorsal fins strapped to their backs.

What he doesn't mention is that, while Al Horford brings us 7.3 rpg in 32.1 minutes of play (8.2/36mpg), Jared Sullinger gave us 8.3 rpg in just 23.6 minutes (12.7/36mpg).  The 8.9 rpg number that Blakely used was his career rebounding average, not last year's.  Horford hasn't averaged over 8.4 rpg since 2012-2013.

What he doesn't mention is that every team has one or two of those "X-factor" players.  Last year it was CJ McCollum for Portland, for example.

Agree that this piece by Blakely was poorly done. 

Last year the Celtics entered the season with a veteran PF we all thought might contribute a lot and be a starter in David Lee. Lee has 2 more seasons experience than Horford and a championship ring. Turner may be younger than Green, but as a more talented and important player, he brought more of an 'experienced veteran' feel than Green brings, even if he was just 25-26 years entering last season when Green enters this one at 30-31.

Mentioning experience without mentioning the core of this team has remained mostly intact and grown hungrier while feeling disrespected (by media, Durant, other playoff clubs, etc.) and faced two first rd playoff battles together, is also poor writing. That will be the biggest 'experience' growth from last season. Young guys are older and know each other well. 

The only thing Al Horford will do worse than Sully did is rebound. He will do EVERYTHING else better. Rebounding should remain a weakness of this team. At least mention that Sully played less minutes and than Horford should be a better rebounder than whoever was on the court the 10-12 mins that will now be Horford's. Horford didn't just replace Sully. It was 22 minutes of him and 10-12 mins of another inferior player. 

I agree that athleticism and rim-protection will be much improved. I'd say a fast-paced style of play needs to be mentioned as going hand in hand with the athletes. No matter how you look at it, Horford is a faster player than fat Sully and even if Turner was a good athlete, he is not nearly the speedster or athlete that both Rozier and Brown are. 

The other 3 things in a top 5 that I feel will be this Celtics team's biggest strengths are:

Talent and Depth Upgrade

Celtics get more top heavy with Horford in the mix and a little deeper in the 10-13th man department. While the losses of Sully and Turner remove two guys playing 22-28 mins and being borderline starters from the mix, the team adds an all-star and the guys ready to play if Crowder, Olynyk, Bradley or really anyone go down again like those three did last year (Rozier, Green, Brown, Hunter, Mickey, Zeller) feature two exciting newcomers at opposite ends of their careers each who can make immediate impact in a specific area (defense and shooting) and three 2nd year players who should all be better and more ready for the big stage. 

There was another article posted here that said championship teams need three high level starters and three quality bench players. The Celtics had ONE high level starter last year (Thomas) and three quality bench guys (Smart, Turner, Olynyk). Assuming Johnson starts, Rozier makes the impact we hope and one of Brown/Green plays above expectations, the Celtics should have two high level starters with Horford here and four quality bench guys. 2014-15 Tyler Zeller would also count as a quality bench guy. 

My final two strengths of the Celtics would be:

Coaching

and

Chemistry

As I said at the top, this team is hungry and full of character guys who play both ends of the floor and badly want to WIN. They lost two of their core but in Horford, Brown and Rozier should be replacing them with similar team first winners who play great defense. It is scary to think about the 'we're all one superstar' mantra being put into effect with superior players.

And finally, how can an article talk about the top 5 strengths of this team without mentioning Stevens and his impact as head coach? Silliness.

arambone wrote:I think Rozier will be better than Turner was by December, and Jaylen Brown will be better than Turner by March.

The Celtics are going to be even better defensively and even more athletic and faster paced, and Rozier and Brown fit in with that perfectly.

Everything that Rozier and Brown do well will be encouraged to the max by Brad and Danny, and their weaknesses won't be overly harped on by the coaches.

Celtics were like 4th fastest paced team and 4th best defense last year, and Brad and Danny have said they want to get even faster.

Rozier kept himself in check last year, and he was also adjusting to the level of competition, but from day one of this season, he's done being polite and deferential to all the vets.

Rozier is a night and day better defender than Thomas, is almost as good a dribble driver, and is a much better rebounder. Thomas is a better 3 point shooter and all around scorer, but Rozier is improving rapidly as a scorer.

Both Rozier and Brown are much better athletes than Turner, and both are going to get to the FT line at a much higher rate than Turner did. Turner was great at pulling up for the short jumper, but he was an average athlete with zero 3 point shot, and I don't think he was any better a passer as Rozier or Brown.

Turner was definitely clutch, but Rozier and Brown are going to be at least as good, this year.

Two of the best athletes in the NBA, with hyper-aggressive playing styles and good/great ball handling. Exactly the kind of player Brad and Danny want. Two variations of Russell Westbrook.

I thought Rozier played pretty well in his playoff stint last year. He has a different skill set than Turner, but I think its more in tune with the fast paced style that  Stevens favors. I think Brown is going to be a monster, but is he really that good a passer?

Rebounding one of the Celts strengths? That'll be a big surprise to 29 other NBA teams.

"I think Brown is going to be a monster, but is he really that good a passer?"

He's not a great passer but neither was Turner. And like Turner, Brown will have more than his share of turnovers. But Brown is solid enough a passer to dribble with his head up, and his elite athleticism will open up a lot of easy passes that wouldn't be there without his elite athleticism and ability to keep his head up.

Not bringing Zizic over is going to come back to haunt us in the playoffs. He'd probably be our best rebounder from day one, but instead Danny wants Zeller and Mickey on the roster?

arambone - is there any chance Zizic could come here in February? I agree that Mickey and Zeller are not going to be as good as Zizic, but long range, maybe Danny is hoping for success (Number 18 next year) next year and wants to tie up Zizic for longer on a low pay scale.

worcester wrote:arambone - is there any chance Zizic could come here in February? I agree that Mickey and Zeller are not going to be as good as Zizic, but long range, maybe Danny is hoping for success (Number 18 next year) next year and wants to tie up Zizic for longer on a low pay scale.

European season goes until late May early June, so not really a chance of getting Zizic like there is a chance of getting Yabusele after China short-season. Plus Zizic is reigning FIBA center of the year, so I doubt his team lets him go in a buyout in the middle of the season.

We were lucky to get Zizic at #23, but he gets forced to be stashed, while late 2nd rounder Jackson gets a guaranteed contract, and out of shape 6'8" Mickey gets a guaranteed roster spot.


Like I said, that's going to come back to haunt us when we're matched up with Dwight Howard's Hawks or the Cavs or the Raptors in the playoffs.

arambone wrote:I think Rozier will be better than Turner was by December, and Jaylen Brown will be better than Turner by March.

The Celtics are going to be even better defensively and even more athletic and faster paced, and Rozier and Brown fit in with that perfectly.

Everything that Rozier and Brown do well will be encouraged to the max by Brad and Danny, and their weaknesses won't be overly harped on by the coaches.

Celtics were like 4th fastest paced team and 4th best defense last year, and Brad and Danny have said they want to get even faster.

Rozier kept himself in check last year, and he was also adjusting to the level of competition, but from day one of this season, he's done being polite and deferential to all the vets.

Rozier is a night and day better defender than Thomas, is almost as good a dribble driver, and is a much better rebounder. Thomas is a better 3 point shooter and all around scorer, but Rozier is improving rapidly as a scorer.

Both Rozier and Brown are much better athletes than Turner, and both are going to get to the FT line at a much higher rate than Turner did. Turner was great at pulling up for the short jumper, but he was an average athlete with zero 3 point shot, and I don't think he was any better a passer as Rozier or Brown.

Turner was definitely clutch, but Rozier and Brown are going to be at least as good, this year.

Two of the best athletes in the NBA, with hyper-aggressive playing styles and good/great ball handling. Exactly the kind of player Brad and Danny want. Two variations of Russell Westbrook.

Bone...you knocked the cover off the ball. I agree 100% with everything you said.

dboss

dboss wrote:

arambone wrote:I think Rozier will be better than Turner was by December, and Jaylen Brown will be better than Turner by March.

The Celtics are going to be even better defensively and even more athletic and faster paced, and Rozier and Brown fit in with that perfectly.

Everything that Rozier and Brown do well will be encouraged to the max by Brad and Danny, and their weaknesses won't be overly harped on by the coaches.

Celtics were like 4th fastest paced team and 4th best defense last year, and Brad and Danny have said they want to get even faster.

Rozier kept himself in check last year, and he was also adjusting to the level of competition, but from day one of this season, he's done being polite and deferential to all the vets.

Rozier is a night and day better defender than Thomas, is almost as good a dribble driver, and is a much better rebounder. Thomas is a better 3 point shooter and all around scorer, but Rozier is improving rapidly as a scorer.

Both Rozier and Brown are much better athletes than Turner, and both are going to get to the FT line at a much higher rate than Turner did. Turner was great at pulling up for the short jumper, but he was an average athlete with zero 3 point shot, and I don't think he was any better a passer as Rozier or Brown.

Turner was definitely clutch, but Rozier and Brown are going to be at least as good, this year.

Two of the best athletes in the NBA, with hyper-aggressive playing styles and good/great ball handling. Exactly the kind of player Brad and Danny want. Two variations of Russell Westbrook.

Bone...you knocked the cover off the ball.  I agree 100% with everything you said.

dboss

I'll second that.

Also arambone's take on Zizic.

Dude is on a hot streak today.  No need for me to write anything; guess I'll go back to work!

(Blakely, however, is apparently drinking Irish coffee at his desk.  There are usually rules against showing up for work drunk.)

arambone wrote:"I think Brown is going to be a monster, but is he really that good a passer?"

He's not a great passer but neither was Turner. And like Turner, Brown will have more than his share of turnovers. But Brown is solid enough a passer to dribble with his head up, and his elite athleticism will open up a lot of easy passes that wouldn't be there without his elite athleticism and ability to keep his head up.

arambone,

It's a little too early to call this, welcome to the summer doldrums, but I'm not sure I'm ready to call this like this.

Evan Turner was a very good passer (his high, loose dribble drove me crazy, but that's something else).  He averaged 4.4 assists and only 2.1 TOs in 28 mpg.  That's good for 2.09:1 assist-to-TO ratio, a key metric when judging ball handlers.  Furthermore, he averaged 5.7 assists/36mpg.  Derrick Rose averaged 5.3 assists/36mpg (and had a worse assist-to-TO ratio), George Hill, the former starting PG of the Pacers, averaged 4.3 assists/36mpg, Michael Carter-Williams averaged 6.1 assists/36mpg but with a worse assist-to-TO ratio.  

My point?  Turner's passing and efficiency (assist-to-TO) are as good as many back up point guards and as well as some starting point guards.

As far as Jaylen Brown goes, one of the raps on him at Cal is that he gets himself into trouble by dribbling into traffic and ends up having to throw up a wild shot.  We saw that happen repeatedly in summer league.  They bailed him out with whistles a lot but he did NOT have his head up as much as he should have.  I don't know if he will get those calls, especially as a rookie, in the regular season.  I realize some of that poor judgment is youth and inexperience, but I'd like to see him outgrow that before I give him credit for outgrowing it.


bob


.

Considering Mickey has been nursing a shoulder injury I thought he played ok.  Not great but Ok as he lead the team in rebounding and scored 9 ppg with very limited opportunities.   I thought he defended the rim pretty good although he was only credited with 1 BS per game.  He is high energy type of player so I would not be too concerned about his conditioning if that in fact was an issue.  Did  Jackson get a guaranteed contract?

Zizic is what 19 years old.  He ain't pushing Howard around or guys like Cousins, Whiteside, Thompson, Drummond, Jordan, ...you get my point.

He is still probably a year or two away.  Makes no sense to bring him over when he is not physically ready to compete against grown men.

The Celtics will compete this year without the Zizic's of the world.

dboss

BobH wrote:As far as Jaylen Brown goes, one of the raps on him at Cal is that he gets himself into trouble by dribbling into traffic and ends up having to throw up a wild shot. We saw that happen repeatedly in summer league. They bailed him out with whistles a lot but he did NOT have his head up as much as he should have. I don't know if he will get those calls, especially as a rookie, in the regular season. I realize some of that poor judgment is youth and inexperience, but I'd like to see him outgrow that before I give him credit for outgrowing it.

I've said it before as have others, but Cal had terrible spacing because it didn't have bigs who could stretch the floor. So the paint was always clogged with traffic. Hardly any dribble drivers, if any at all, can thrive in that environment.

Dribbling into the lane without a plan is par for the course, and any plan is likely to be changed anyway, given last second movements of help defenders.

Do you think Michael Jordan had a specific plan every time he drove into the lane? Even if he did, he'd need to scratch that plan and react on instincts anyway, which is exactly what he did and was so good at.

95% of NBA players are not as good at dribble driving as Rozier and Brown, and the Celtics haven't had many of this type of guy, going back decades.

Did Evan Turner have a plan every time he drove to the basket? He rarely got there anyway, like most NBA players. Turner's only plan was to pull up for a short jumper every time. As such, he didn't get to the FT line much, which is where almost all great NBA scorers get a lot of their points.

And if Brown doesn't get all the calls he should, that's not exactly a knock on him. Kind of like not having a thesis with charts about what he plans to do at the hoop after toasting his man off the dribble, at will, like a superstar.

And there isn't some dramatic difference in athleticism between summer league competition and NBA competition. Brown and Rozier are going to have almost the same athletic advantage against NBA guys as against Summer League guys.

The type of player that doesn't always translate from summer league to the NBA is the kind who doesn't have great athleticism, who relies on the mercy of luck that he might still be able to get his shot off, or the luck that he'll still be strong enough, or the luck of his physical limitations otherwise being sufficient at the NBA level.

Even most starting point guards aren't good defenders. So I could be surprised when an empowered, trusted Terry Rozier blows by the Damian Lillards, Jeff Teagues, and Jordan Clarksons of the league, but I'm choosing not to be surprised the inevitable.

And most NBA SFs haven't even faced, much less thrived defending a guy with Jaylen Brown's combination of quickness, shake, strength, and ball handling skill. A longer, younger, quicker Jimmy Butler is probably the best comparison, and Jimmy Butler does pretty well for himself in this league.

If the Celtics didn't have stretch bigs, and played a slow paced offensive style, my expectations would be quite different, and both Rozier and Brown would be less effective dribble driving against a clogged up paint.

But just as IT has had an almost unlimited number of uncontested layups after toasting his man the last 1.5 years, Brown and Rozier are going to be facing a paint at least as empty, and argruably moreso with the absence of guys like Sully and Turner not stretching defenses out to the 3 point line.

dboss wrote:Considering Mickey has been nursing a shoulder injury I thought he played ok.  Not great but Ok as he lead the team in rebounding and scored 9 ppg with very limited opportunities.   I thought he defended the rim pretty good although he was only credited with 1 BS per game.  He is high energy type of player so I would not be too concerned about his conditioning if that in fact was an issue.  Did  Jackson get a guaranteed contract?

Zizic is what 19 years old.  He ain't pushing Howard around or guys like Cousins, Whiteside, Thompson, Drummond, Jordan, ...you get my point.

He is still probably a year or two away.  Makes no sense to bring him over when he is not physically ready to compete against grown men.

The Celtics will compete this year without the Zizic's of the world.

dboss

Mickey can't rebound worth a damn, even in summer league, and he didn't even show up in top shape. Zizic is 3.5" taller, much stronger, more physical, and probably hungrier for an opportunity to showcase himself in the NBA. Mickey has poor feel for the game, drops lots of passes, can't dribble, and has slow feet laterally.

Mickey made more sense last year, when our roster wasn't as jam packed with rock solid NBA players. We've had 5 more draft picks since then.

It is always nice for a team to have a good number of "strengths", but to win games (especially in the playoffs) any team needs to understand their weaknesses and then work like crazy to be sure that said weaknesses are not exposed.

Rebounding is still an apparent weakness for the Celtics.  A couple of their guards seem to do a good job coming back and helping on the glass, but they do not have: one beast on the boards or even a wide range of slightly above average rebounders at any of their forward or center spots.

Sullinger was the best last year and Horford may be the best this year, but neither guy has ever been a 12-14 rpg guy.  With Sullinger gone and Horford getting a little bit older more rebounding is needed.

Rebounding can come from guys who are not the absolute tallest guys around, but there has to be a strong desire to get rebounds.  Paul Silas led the league one year for the Cs and he was only 6"6.  Rodman was a great rebounder and was only 6'7. The Cs have a whole bunch of guys who do not consistently box out or move laterally to get rebounds. Too many of their guys seem to "settle" for letting their opponent get too many rebounds in my opinion.

If each guy in the rotation could get even one to one and half more rebounds per game, the team would likely win seven to ten more games in the regular season and then maybe 3 to 5 more playoff games next year.

For all the effort and hustling our team does on defense they do not seem to put the same energy into rebounding on either end of the floor.

Hey Wide

How does one get 1/2 a rebound?


Personally I think we will be fine on the boards. Not great but good enough.

beat