Could Jae Crowder be the Celtics’ Biggest Overachiever?

http://www.celticsblog.com/2016/8/10/12425410/could-jae-crowder-be-the-celtics-biggest-overachiever



Could Jae Crowder be the Celtics’ Biggest Overachiever?



By Alex Kungu  @Kunguuu


on Aug 10, 2016, 2:55p 53




Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images
Can an easier role make Jae Crowder the Celtics’ biggest overachiever?


In today’s edition of the Celtics Summer Forecast, a bunch of the staff weighed in on who would be the Celtics’ biggest overachiever. For the most part our staff was split between Gerald Green and Jaylen Brown (with a Jonas Jerebko cameo by Bill Sy), but I went in a different direction:

Alex Kungu, Red’s Army (Crowder): I don't like the term overachiever, but I do think that Crowder is moving down the offensive totem pole and his role will better match his skill set. I could see a 3-point percentage in the high 30s and increased points per game due to open lanes. Combined with his high-level defense, he could even become a dark-horse All-Star candidate if the Celtics are near the top of the East in February.

Last season, Crowder was awesome in his role as a two-way wing who could space the floor, defend virtually anyone, and was the clear emotional leader of the team. However, he did have his limitations as a creator for himself and others. Last season, Crowder assisted on 78.62% of his shots, and he sported a putrid 8.9 assist percentage. This is what Crowder is, but as a second option on a team, you’re looking for a lot more.

Roles are everything for non-superstar players, (See JR Smith in New York, Isaiah Thomas in Phoenix, Amare in New York, etc.). When players are put in roles that allow them to play to their strengths, they can become very productive. But sometimes, players can be productive but still need to do more for the team to reach its peak. This was the case with Crowder, where though his counting stats (14.2 ppg, 5.1 assists, and 1.7 steals) screamed great value considering how he was acquired, they also didn’t scream co-star, which was the position he was put in.

With the acquisition of Al Horford, the Celtics no longer need that from him, which is a good thing. Horford paired with Thomas can provide the type of dynamic duo that most teams in the East will have a hard time competing with, but the trickle-down effect could be where Celtics fans really see a difference. A guy like Jae Crowder will now only be expected to defend, shoot threes, and make timely cuts: a role that fits his exact skill-set. The acquisition also makes his job much easier. Celtics will now have a big that can guard on the perimeter, meaning they won’t have to rely on ICE’ing a majority of their PnR coverage. They have another big on the floor who can shoot, which means more space in the lane for drives and cuts. And what could be most important is that they have a big who attracts extra defenders, meaning more space on shooting opportunities. Last season, Crowder shot 39.6% when he was wide open (closet defender 6+ feet) via NBA.com, but he shot a mediocre 31.7% when he was just open (closet defender 4-6 ft away). Wide-open attempts only made up 11.4% of his attempts, with more of those attempts a possibility with extra defenders being drawn to other players, his 33.6% overall three point percentage could see a nice little leap. Even Crowder’s distributing numbers could raise a bit now that, instead of Evan Turner as his second primary option to pass to, it’ll be either Al Horford or Isaiah Thomas—guys that can readily put the ball in the basket from anywhere.

Crowder’s counting statistics might look similar, but his advanced stats will look much improved do to more efficient opportunities. The over-achievement part comes in when you take into account that none of Crowder’s potential boost comes from him getting better. Rather, it’s all projected to be due to a more easier role. That’s not an indictment, however. Crowder’s importance is widely understood, and without him the Celtics are nowhere close to being a top-three seed in the conference. But the fact that his numbers will most likely be bloated due to the impact of other players puts him in right in line to the be the Celtics biggest overachiever.



bob
MY NOTE:  It would be helpful if Crowder could up his 33.6% 3pt fg% from last year.  That is the 2nd highest of his career, his high was 34.2%, but he needs to creep that up another 20+% in today's NBA.  Furthermore, he needs to up his inside game.  He isn't particularly athletic, but he is a linebacker in build.  He should use that to bully smaller players in the post.  As we all know, and I think agree, his defense is outstanding and his competitive spirit is much valued and appreciated.  He is the emotional leader of this team.


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I just read this article before signing in on the board today, and have a problem with anyone trying to determine who is going to be an "overachiever" in a season that has not yet even started pre-season training camp.

Here is why I really do not like the term "overachiever" at any time of the season, but especially not before a season even starts. Although players can "overachieve" there are just so many variables to be considered when trying to determine overachievement.

Things like lingering injuries, minutes played, which group you are playing with most of the time (how your skills fit in with the other four guys on the floor), the opponent, the guy's skill set (some guys rebound well, some shoot well, etc, but most guys are not equally skilled in the all around game), the time of the game at which you are actually in the game, etc, etc.

An example. Say Kelly Olynyk, who is now entering his fourth year, starts 70 games which means that he will usually play against the other team's starters for most of every game averages 8 or 9 RPG next season. I would call this highly overachieving for Olynyk as a rebounder (at least until he shows that he can do this for a couple of years in a row). If he starts only a dozen games and averages 6 or 7 rebounds against mostly second string guys this is not overachieving for him, but is still acceptable as a second string forward.

Wondering about "overachieving" seems to place limits on players. I would much prefer to concentrate on "achieving" when discussing players in the off season.

I turned this into a poll, like the 'Underachiever' thread.


bob


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Marcus Smart.

He finds his shot, becomes an All-Star, leads us to the finals, makes all defensive first team, comes in third for league MVP.

Remember, I called it first.

gyso

gyso wrote:Marcus Smart.

He finds his shot, becomes an All-Star, leads us to the finals, makes all defensive first team, comes in third for league MVP.

Remember, I called it first.

gyso

Made a note of it, I'll bring it back up in May of next year......,