Not quite there yet

Things are looking up for the Celts - but the odds of the Celtics winning it all this year are really lousy. Consider the following requirements to be a serious contender.
* Since 1980-81(36 years) only 2 teams have won the championship when they played under .610 ball (50-32) the year before the championship year. They were the Bulls in 1994-95 and the Celtics in 2006-07. However the Bulls in 1995-96 welcomed back Jordan and added Rodman - both all nba performers the last year that they played before the championship year. And of course the Celts added All league performer Garnett to the championship roster of 07-08.
* Also consider the fact that the championship team has featured a player that was an all league performer during at least 1 of the 2 years preceding the the ring year, in 35 of the 36 years. And in the one year that an all nba player was missing (the 1988 Pistons) they were led by Isiah Thomas who was an all star in all 5 of the previous 5 seasons. Brad is doing the job with the wins - Adding an all nba player (One who has been an all nba player) at least 1 of the last 2 years)will put this team in Position to make a serious run at a championship. At least that's what the numbers of the last 36 years suggest. Generally speaking the above stipulations will eliminate about 24 teams from contention.

swish

Swish,

I agree, but does anybody really think we would?

We are about to enter year 4 of a minimum 3-5 year rebuild and our climb up the win column has been impressive.  One great trade by Danny, or a free agent next summer who sees what we have and wants in, and we're there

Btw, the 2003-2004 World Champion Detroit Pistons only had 54 regular season wins, pretty close to what we are expecting  The two previous years they had 50 wins.  There is nothing magical about .600 or 50 wins.  If the Celtics win rhe championship this there will only be 3 teams that did it.  That's still long odds BUT every year is a new swing at the ball.  The teams that tried and failed to do it in previous years have no weight on this year.  The past is not always prologue.


bob


.

Here are the teams that I consider serious contenders for this upcoming season.  Teams that played at least .610 ball this past year and had at least 1 player that was an all nba player either this past year or the year before.

Eastern conference Teams plus their all nba players:
 Cavs - James - Irving
 Raptors - Lowry.
Western conference teams plus their all nba players
 Warriors - Curry - Green - Thompson - Durant
Spurs - Aldridge - Leonard - Gasol
 Thunder - Westbrook
 Clippers - Paul - Jordan - Griffin

Average win percent for those 6 teams this past year was .734

* The loss of Durant will have a severe, if not fatal, effect on the success of the Thunder hopes this year.

swish

Since when did either Gasol become a Warrior?

worcester wrote:Since when did either Gasol become a Warrior?

worcester

Great question. Thanks for catching my goof - I already had him down with the spurs. it's been corrected.I had been getting away with just double checking my script - I guess that age (vision) dictates that I now double the review time.

swish

Swish,

While you are in edit mode, maybe you could add Durant to the Warriors.

gyso wrote:Swish,

While you are in edit mode, maybe you could add Durant to the Warriors.

Not sure but I think his point was these were LAST years rosters (based on the idea of the previous year to the following year)

beat

gyso wrote:Swish,

While you are in edit mode, maybe you could add Durant to the Warriors.

Gotcha # 2 - Some days it just doesn't pay to write'

swish

beat wrote:

gyso wrote:Swish,

While you are in edit mode, maybe you could add Durant to the Warriors.

Not sure but I think his point was these were LAST years rosters (based on the idea of the previous year to the following year)

beat

Beat,
Your right about previous years roster BUT that also includes players coming over from another club - like Gasol from the Bulls to Spurs and Durant from The Thunder to the Warriors.

swish

swish wrote:

beat wrote:

gyso wrote:Swish,

While you are in edit mode, maybe you could add Durant to the Warriors.

Not sure but I think his point was these were LAST years rosters (based on the idea of the previous year to the following year)

beat

 Beat,
   Your right about previous years roster BUT that also includes players coming over from another club - like Gasol from the Bulls to Spurs and Durant from The Thunder to the Warriors.

 swish

Swish

That is why I played the political middle by saying "not sure"

beat

Well then, I am not sure, but add Noel or Okafor to the Celtics while you are making corrections??????? Noel preferably, fits the Celtic mold of defense better?????

Just kidding. I really do not know who I would want them to go after, Gordon Hayward maybe? More firepower???

The role of the Elite:

   35 of the last 36 nba champs have been led by at least 1 all nba player. As a matter of fact those 35 winners have been led by as few as 13 different all nba players -  Bird,Jabbar,Moses Malone,Jordan,Olajuwon,Duncan,O'Neal,Ben Wallace,Garnett, Bryant,Nowitzki,James,Curry. Some of the Champs have had multiple all nba players on the roster.
     The champ Pistons in 1989 did not have an all nba qualified player on the team - BUT did have Isiah Thomas, who in the 8 years preceding the ring year, was an all star each and every year.  All in all - 36 championships - All led by elite players.

 swish

RosalieTCeltics wrote:Well then, I am not sure, but add Noel or Okafor to the Celtics while you are making corrections???????  Noel preferably, fits the Celtic mold of defense better?????

Just kidding.  I really do not know who I would want them to go after, Gordon Hayward maybe? More firepower???

RosalietCeltics

I'm very impressed with Okafor based on the several clips that I've viewed of his game. Based on the below link it appears that his rookie year has him comparing quite well with other youthful big men of the last 20 or so years. Of course he's coming off of surgery so there's a concern about his post-operative condition. If healthy he could turn out to be an elite player in the not to distant future.

  http://bkref.com/tiny/K6bib

swish

swish

Thanks for your unique perspective, even if it is somewhat discouraging. You know, some of us would like to believe the Celtics can storm their way to a championship this coming season, even if it is a statistical impossibility. Damn, I hate statistics. Nevertheless, your way of following trends over time can be tremendously enlightening.

It's hard to argue with your conclusions above, but there has to be more to it, or so my pathetic brain tells me. Yes, those players listed were all-pro, but they were also champions. For example, Dwight Howard could play another 20 years, be all-pro every year, and still not win a championship.

Maybe the all-pro/champion who leads your team to the promised land simply has to possess certain qualities of leadership or clutch play. If so, there's very few out there right now.

Then, there're always the 1989 Pistons. Never liked them, never liked any Pistons team, buncha McFilthies and McNasties, but they prove that there can be exceptions to Swish's Rule. Go Cs!

Horford was on an all-NBA team in 2011 and has been an all-star in 4 of the last 7 seasons including the last two (injuries in the middle). 

This team is one more piece away, as many have noted. I think they will jump to 54-58 wins this year and then really challenge the Cavs and be title contenders in 2018.

akaspike

Actually that Piston team of 89-90 was preceded by an outstanding 88-89 Piston team that was the champ with a fantastic 63-19 record(.768) And that team was led by Isiah Thomas who was a 5 time all nba player(but not in either of the 2 years prior to the 89-90 champ season). He was however an all star for 8 straight years year prior to the 89-90 championship year. That my friend defines him as an elite player. No exception to the rule here.

Your statement below.

"Then, there're always the 1989 Pistons. Never liked them, never liked any Pistons team, buncha McFilthies and McNasties, but they prove that there can be exceptions to Swish's Rule. Go Cs!"

swish

swish

Thomas was a 7x all-star and 5x all-NBA player in the 7 regular seasons before the 1987 playoffs, when he and Rodman made the "racist" comments about Bird. Larry was quick to say it didn't bother him and defuse any controversy, but Isiah never made another all-NBA team after that and wasn't invited to be on the 1992 Dream Team he probably should have been a part of. 

1988 was the last year they only had 1st/2nd team All-NBA before switching to 3 teams in 1989. Thomas, a 1st team selection in '86 and 2nd team selection in '87, was left off in '88 in favor of John Stockton, who blew up in his 4th season jumping from a 23 min, 8p/8a guy who shot 19% from 3 in '87 to a 35m 14.7p/13.8a guy hitting 36% of his 3's and had a 23.2 PER. Had there been 3 teams in '88 Thomas probably makes the 3rd team.  

This was the start of a crazy streak for Stockton where he was on an All-NBA team the next 10 years and 11 of 12 and finished with PER's over 20 FOR THE REST OF HIS CAREER (16 more seasons!) even when he turned 41 during his final season in 2003 he was playing 27.7 mins and providing 10.8p, 7.7a and 1.7 steals with a PER of 21. Wow. 

Tough to get on Zeke for being behind Magic and Stockton as the 3rd best PG of his generation. His slight drop in stats from his '83-'86 All-NBA years resulted in improved team play and 5 trips to the East Finals and two titles '87-'91, something that wouldn't be overlooked today in the Kawhi over Harden NBA, but may have been back then. 

1989 was a bit of a different story with 3 All-NBA teams. Mark Price made it over Thomas mainly due to his epic 54/44/90 shooting season. His team lost in the 1st rd on Jordan's shot, while the Pistons still owned the Bulls at that time, but you have to include a guy who shoots like that when all other stats were pretty much equal. However, Kevin Johnson made it at age 23 to the 2nd team in '89, with 20.4p/12.2 assists to Thomas's 18.2/8.3. The Suns were surprisingly good, but being swept by LA in the WCF isn't quite as good as beating them in the finals like Detroit did. Johnson also shot .091 from 3, which would be mercilessly mocked today but I guess wasn't as big a deal then. I'd still have put the vet Thomas with the best team on the All-NBA 3rd team over Johnson. 

In 1990 Thomas and Johnson each had a slightly better seasons than in '89 so the same argument could be made as Detroit was clearly the best team in the NBA that year. Dumars did make the 3rd team. By 1991 at age 29 Thomas played in just 48 games and began a slow decline. His title window closed after that season and he retiring young at age 32 in 1994 when he could clearly still play.

Also, when you talk about the 2004 Pistons having an All-NBA player in the seasons before they won the title, you need to remember it was Ben Wallace, a guy put on the 2nd team when Duncan, Shaq and KG all made the 1st team and there were NO other dominant centers to choose from. 

The rules of all-NBA say you need a center or a guy who is close enough to one for each team. Wallace made it in 2003 scoring 6.9 pts and shooting 45% from the line due to his crazy defense and rebounding. I'd much rather have the 2-way play of Al Horford on my team right now in the modern NBA than a player like Ben Wallace. 

The Celtics are one more big man and either one more guard or Smart/Brown blowing up away from being like that 2004 Pistons team that had five borderline all-stars but no superstars. Thomas, Crowder and Horford are as good as Rip, Prince and either of the Wallace's. Avery and Smart can both bring the same defense Billups did, but not the offense.

Ram wrote:Thomas was a 7x all-star and 5x all-NBA player in the 7 regular seasons before the 1987 playoffs, when he and Rodman made the "racist" comments about Bird. Larry was quick to say it didn't bother him and defuse any controversy, but Isiah never made another all-NBA team after that and wasn't invited to be on the 1992 Dream Team he probably should have been a part of. 

1988 was the last year they only had 1st/2nd team All-NBA before switching to 3 teams in 1989. Thomas, a 1st team selection in '86 and 2nd team selection in '87, was left off in '88 in favor of John Stockton, who blew up in his 4th season jumping from a 23 min, 8p/8a guy who shot 19% from 3 in '87 to a 35m 14.7p/13.8a guy hitting 36% of his 3's and had a 23.2 PER. Had there been 3 teams in '88 Thomas probably makes the 3rd team.  

This was the start of a crazy streak for Stockton where he was on an All-NBA team the next 10 years and 11 of 12 and finished with PER's over 20 FOR THE REST OF HIS CAREER (16 more seasons!) even when he turned 41 during his final season in 2003 he was playing 27.7 mins and providing 10.8p, 7.7a and 1.7 steals with a PER of 21. Wow. 

Tough to get on Zeke for being behind Magic and Stockton as the 3rd best PG of his generation. His slight drop in stats from his '83-'86 All-NBA years resulted in improved team play and 5 trips to the East Finals and two titles '87-'91, something that wouldn't be overlooked today in the Kawhi over Harden NBA, but may have been back then. 

1989 was a bit of a different story with 3 All-NBA teams. Mark Price made it over Thomas mainly due to his epic 54/44/90 shooting season. His team lost in the 1st rd on Jordan's shot, while the Pistons still owned the Bulls at that time, but you have to include a guy who shoots like that when all other stats were pretty much equal. However, Kevin Johnson made it at age 23 to the 2nd team in '89, with 20.4p/12.2 assists to Thomas's 18.2/8.3. The Suns were surprisingly good, but being swept by LA in the WCF isn't quite as good as beating them in the finals like Detroit did. Johnson also shot .091 from 3, which would be mercilessly mocked today but I guess wasn't as big a deal then. I'd still have put the vet Thomas with the best team on the All-NBA 3rd team over Johnson. 

In 1990 Thomas and Johnson each had a slightly better seasons than in '89 so the same argument could be made as Detroit was clearly the best team in the NBA that year. Dumars did make the 3rd team. By 1991 at age 29 Thomas played in just 48 games and began a slow decline. His title window closed after that season and he retiring young at age 32 in 1994 when he could clearly still play.

Nice job of summing up the events of those Piston years.

swish

Thanks

Ram wrote:Also, when you talk about the 2004 Pistons having an All-NBA player in the seasons before they won the title, you need to remember it was Ben Wallace, a guy put on the 2nd team when Duncan, Shaq and KG all made the 1st team and there were NO other dominant centers to choose from. 

The rules of all-NBA say you need a center or a guy who is close enough to one for each team. Wallace made it in 2003 scoring 6.9 pts and shooting 45% from the line due to his crazy defense and rebounding. I'd much rather have the 2-way play of Al Horford on my team right now in the modern NBA than a player like Ben Wallace. 

The Celtics are one more big man and either one more guard or Smart/Brown blowing up away from being like that 2004 Pistons team that had five borderline all-stars but no superstars. Thomas, Crowder and Horford are as good as Rip, Prince and either of the Wallace's. Avery and Smart can both bring the same defense Billups did, but not the offense.

With the advent of the 3pt shot the lines separating the big man positions is less clearly defined. In 01-02 and 02-03 Wallace was 1 of 9 big men selected to the all nba team. Out of about 105 men that are considered to be a center, center forward,or forward center being in the top 9 ranks him in the top 6%.

swish

The Celtics really aren't far off from true contention.

More offense would tip us over the edge, which very well could (likely) include the talent of a true superstar.


KJ

i'll tell ya'll a poker story.

I was playing in a house game with 8 or 9 players and was chip leader when I found myself holding pocket aces, I got into a small bidding war that left me heads up by the turn and then got beat on the river. Preflop my odds of winning vs any other hand stood around 75%.

very next hand I again got pocket aces again- odds of that I just looked up, 1 in about 48,000.. I raised that pt up some till I was all in verses another player. again 75% chance of winning it all (or so) and screw the odds I lost again.

2 hands later I went all in again against another player. again pocket aces. then I went home cuz I was out of money.

that's my long way of saying the odds of this aint or that don't mean anything. neither does following some recipe for winning a title.

There is no formula for winning (okay there was in the 50's and 60's- You played a guy named Russel and you won every year, but this is different).

Consider Poker, whatever might happen in any given hand has no bearing on the cards that come your way in the next hand. The last two times you had cards that had a 75% chance of winning preflop being in your hand for the 3rd time in 4 hands does not instantly give you a win on the third time. The fact that you lost twice with the best cards to have statistically doesn't mean you are fated to lose a third time.

I think every NBA season is like that. Whatever happened last year will have no effect on the next season.

The Cavs are the NBA champs, they could miss the playoffs completely if Lebron broke his leg the first month. there is no promise that they will repeat. As one baldheaded Celtic once said, anything is possible. IT and horford could grow to hate each other and one demand a trade, a few injuries and we could end up a 41 win team. Somehow the nets could get their poo together and make the playoffs and make a long run, ya never know.

Every season players surprise us, teams surprise us, some much better than expected, some much worse.

The experts are often wrong. I recall after Boston got KG reading one sports mag and the writer claiming that it would take 2-3 seasons for Boston to get the 3 amigos to gel properly and even by then, would Boston be able to find the right bench? Would players stick around for past their current contracts? Would they even have time to fill out the rest of the starting lineup? Danny it seemed had opened a small window for a shot at a title, but would they have the time and leftover assests to make it work out?

eh, if KG and Perk had not been injured I don't think anyone now would find it hard to believe we'd have our 20th title by now.

I guess what I am saying is that it seems that many feel there is some sort of recipe for winning a title, I disagree. I think looking back we can observe regular patterns that seemed to work, but every season should be looked at within the scope of itself. Unique to the schedule, the injuries, the trades the chemistry and the ability of each coach to use his teams strenths to take that team the farthest it can - or lack of said ability. So many factors weigh in, but not once does history begin to play some sort of factor in whats about to happen on the court- unless a player allows past circumstances and outcomes to distract him mentally.

Really the best thing to do is sit back and watch the game/season unfold.. thinking its a lock cuz ya got pocket aces or thinking your already beat cuz the other dood might have them can leave ya lookin mighty foolish.