Celtics salary cap outlook

http://www.celticsblog.com/2016/9/5/12799150/nba-boston-celtics-salary-cap-roster-outlook

Breaking down the salary cap over the next few years.

By • Keith P Smith  •Sep 5, 2016, 2:17p

Everyone knows that Danny Ainge still has a lot of extra draft picks coming the Celtics’ way over the next few seasons. Through 2019, Boston should have at least three extra first-round picks (from the Nets, Clippers and Grizzlies) in addition to swap rights with Brooklyn in 2017. Beyond that, the Celtics have several additional second-round picks through 2020. Boston’s draft future is very bright, especially for a team that is a player or two away from being a title contender.

But having a rosy future in the draft is only one part of the equation. Having talent on the roster now is another paramount concern, and the Celtics certainly check that box as well with their young, skilled core. However, there is a third and equally important component to long-term success, one that is often overlooked: flexibility under the salary cap. Unlike many teams in their position, Boston has that in spades as well. The purpose of this article is to dive a little bit deeper into the Celtics’ salary cap outlook over the next few years.

2016-17

Guaranteed Contracts (16): Avery Bradley, Jaylen Brown, Jae Crowder, Gerald Green, Al Horford, R.J. Hunter, Demetrius Jackson, Jonas Jerebko, Amir Johnson, Jordan Mickey, Kelly Olynyk, Terry Rozier, Marcus Smart, Isaiah Thomas, James Young, Tyler Zeller

Partial/Non-Guaranteed Contracts (2): Ben Bentil, Marcus Georges-Hunt

Free Agents: None

2016 1st Round Draft Picks: Guerschon Yabusele and Ante Zizic are unlikely to sign with the Celtics for this season.

This season is fairly cut and dry. Barring a trade, the Celtics will likely waive Ben Bentil and Marcus Georges-Hunt (both are partially guaranteed) and hope to get them to Maine in the D-League. That leaves the Cs one above the 15-man roster limit. Based on his performance (or lack thereof) at Summer League and on the team’s subsequent comments, James Young seems like the most likely to go. Boston will look to trade him first, and barring that, he’ll be waived.

As far as the cap goes, once the season starts, the Celtics will dip slightly below the cap by $370,898.00. That’s not enough to sign a FA but just enough room to sign a player to a 10-day contract in January, assuming a roster spot frees up. Boston also has the full Room Exception ($2,898,000.00) available to them if necessary as well.

Two things to keep an eye on: First, by 10/31, team options for 2017-18 have to be decided upon for R.J. Hunter, Terry Rozier, Marcus Smart and James Young. Second, Kelly Olynyk is eligible for his first extension The Celtics could reach an agreement on an extension with Olynyk and prevent him from being a restricted free agent next summer.

2017-18

Guaranteed Contracts (5): Avery Bradley, Jaylen Brown, Jae Crowder, Al Horford, Isaiah Thomas

Partial/Non-Guaranteed Contracts (4): Ben Bentil, Demetrius Jackson, Jordan Mickey, Tyler Zeller

Free Agents (9): Marcus Georges-Hunt (RFA), Gerald Green, R.J. Hunter (TO), Jonas Jerebko, Amir Johnson, Kelly Olynyk (RFA), Terry Rozier (TO), Marcus Smart (TO), James Young (TO)

2017 1st Round Draft Picks: Swap rights with Brooklyn.

Maximum Cap Space: $43.9 million

Within the next month or so, we’ll know the fates of Hunter, Rozier, Smart and Young as far as their team options. The best bet is that the team exercises each option (minus Young), as declining rookie scale options is a tactic teams usually avoid. The main reasons are that players can make big leaps from their first year to their second or from their second year to their third. And having cheap talent on a roster makes it that much easier to fill out the rest of the squad. Smart also becomes extension eligible for the first time in 2017. His development this year will go a long way to determining how far Boston will go to lock him up.

If Olynyk and the Celtics can’t reach an extension, he’ll be a restricted free agent in 2017. Boston would like to have him back because he provides a unique skill set as a true stretch 5 that can also run the floor. But the Celtics won’t get caught in a big bidding war for Olynyk either. Expect him to get an offer locked in, but also expect him to sign later to take advantage of his relatively small cap hold. This worked for the Celtics with Jae Crowder a couple of years ago and paid off with the team adding Amir Johnson that summer.

Beyond that, Bradley and Thomas are in the final years of their deals. If the Celtics have leftover cap space that is unlikely to be used to add new players, they could use that money to renegotiate and extend deals with either or both players. This tactic has been put to use more often over last few years with players like Russell Westbrook, James Harden and Danilo Gallinari.

The other player in the last year of his deal is Tyler Zeller, who will be on a fully non-guaranteed deal that becomes fully guaranteed on 7/2/17. This deal structure is similar to those of Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko in the summer of 2016. This makes Zeller a tradeable piece either at the 2017 trade deadline or the 2017 NBA Draft because his new team can waive him at no cost. There is always the chance that Zeller plays well and earns his spot on the roster going forward, similar to what happened with Johnson and Jerebko.

Speaking of Johnson and Jerebko, both will be free agents in the summer of 2017. Johnson’s days as a surefire starter are getting close to an end, but he can still be a productive reserve. Jerebko already is a productive reserve who can play the 3 and 4, and even some small ball 5 in a pinch. Boston could bring both players back on smartly structured contracts as depth pieces instead of key contributors.

2018-19

Guaranteed Contracts (2): Jae Crowder, Al Horford

Partial/Non-Guaranteed Contracts (3): Ben Bentil, Demetrius Jackson, Jordan Mickey (if TO is picked up)

Free Agents (9): Avery Bradley, Jaylen Brown (TO), R.J. Hunter (TO), Jordan Mickey (RFA if TO is declined), Terry Rozier (TO), Marcus Smart (RFA), Isiah Thomas, James Young (RFA), Tyler Zeller

2018 1st Round Draft Picks: Own, Brooklyn (unprotected)

Maximum Cap Space: $65.9 million

In the summer of 2018, the Celtics will likely start to see some change happening. Key starters Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley will both be free agents. Marcus Smart will hit restricted free agency if the team can’t reach an extension agreement with him.

Jaylen Brown will likely have had his team option picked up the previous summer, and the same goes for Terry Rozier. R.J. Hunter is a bigger question mark. If he doesn’t show real improvement this season, he could be playing elsewhere by the summer of 2018. Jordan Mickey’s team option can be taken right up to free agency, and if the team picks up the option, his contract is non-guaranteed until 7/15/18. This gives the Celtics the ability to take their time deciding on his future.

With the opportunity for plenty of cap space and some likely major free agents on the market, Boston will have to decide between keeping their current core together or adding big, new pieces to bring the team back in to title contention. And, of course, the opportunity exists to add another big-time piece in the draft, if the Nets are still struggling at that point.

Overall Outlook

Projecting more than a couple of years out is tricky for any NBA franchise. For the Celtics, because of Danny Ainge’s propensity to aggressively pursue upgrades, it is even harder. But the case can be made that the team-friendly deals for Thomas, Bradley and Crowder, having Horford locked up for the foreseeable future, all the players on Rookie Scale contracts and the extra draft picks give Boston great flexibility in building the roster. Oh, and it also helps to have one of the hottest young coaches that opposing players rave about all the time in Brad Stevens, too. The Celtics’ future is as bright as any in the league.

If you are interested in seeing the Celtics cap sheet for yourself, as well as cap sheets for every team around the league, click here. That link will also show you the future draft pick situation for every team in the league and free agent information as well.

Thanks for the copy and paste. VERY well written. 

I'm looking at two options for the C's moving forward. 

1. If the C's can trade for a big before FA next summer (Cousins or Noel) or draft one who they are pretty sure will be a star (Giles?) then they can manipulate the cap next summer to add a scoring wing via free agency (Gordon Haywood?) and keep their core together, even if it means overpaying first Olynyk and later IT, Bradley and Smart b/c they will not be under the cap again for the foreseeable future. Rozier, Brown, Zizic, Yabusele and the Nets unprotected pick for Cousins, a 2018 FA we know will be leaving Sac-Town, is VERY fair. A 2017-18 team with IT, Haywood, Horford and Cousins and a much improved Smart starting+ Bradley, Olynyk, Crowder and other solid depth off the bench would absolutely compete for the title. 

2. If Ainge cannot add a good big man to pair with Horford than I think he lets the team take a small step back in order to take a big step forward in the future. This would mean letting Olynyk walk after he receives a big FA off (like Evan Turner), choosing between one of Zeller or Amir at roughly 8m for 2017-18 to start alongside Horford while Zizic and Yabusele adjust, and vets like Jerebko/Mickey still get relied on. This is a lateral move or even a slight drop from this year (with Olynyk and a younger Amir) unless Zizic is much better than expected. Then he'll let Bradley, Thomas and Smart play out their FA years. He'll be stuck drafting a young wing who can score with the Nets pick, giving him two such guys (along with Brown) to share mins with defense 1st vets like Bradley and Crowder. The C's will compete at the same level as they do this season (55ish wins, #2 seed) but won't be expected to win a title. Ainge will make sure to create enough cap room to sign Cousins summer of 2018 while keeping Thomas and Smart around on their small cap holds. After the hopeful Cousins signing Ainge will extend Thomas and extend Smart (or match whatever offer he gets). The C's will almost certainly have to lose Bradley, but will be a force to be reckoned with in 2018-19. 

I am ok with either of those options. Option #3 involving Brown and/or the Nets pick just being just more borderline starter Smart/Olynyk/Sully material while no free agents come here and no big trade goes down is an option I will NOT allow myself to think can happen.