Boston Now Has Its Own 'Lineup of Death'

In order to beat teams like GState and Cleve you need to be able to play tough man to man on them and get in their jersey's and head's. I think the C's are one of the few teams that can do that. 

Horford vs. Dray Green will be a wash. I'd rather have Horford for this system and his superior personality, but I think the advantage he holds on Green in the paint is mitigated by Green's range out at the 3 point line. 

Crowder vs. Durant is of course an advantage to KD, but Crowder can def bother him and turn him into a jump shooter and not need a double team. 

Smart and Bradley will be on Klay and Iggy. Not sure who is the best match-up on who, but they give up a decent amount of length to both and while they will bother the heck out of them I don't think they'll score enough on offense to hold any type of advantage since both those players are also great defenders. 

Thomas vs. Steph features a mini-Curry vs. the real deal. Too bad IT isn't 6'3" b/c he can get hot and put up 80-90% of Steph's numbers from the field, but won't be able to guard Curry at all and therefore will be at a big disadvantage overall vs. the MVP. 

Jaylen Brown is the wild card. If he makes big strides in his game by the 2nd half of the season and lives up to his #3 pick billing, then he can replace the weak link defender (Thomas) in this lineup at times, IF Smart is able to run the team and handle/distribute the rock, then Brown can cause a lot of issues for the much older Iguadala with his youth, energy and equal size, while Avery can hound and frustrate Steph. 

The C's will have a "death lineup" that can feature 5 out of a group of 7 players IMO. With the versatility of Amir to guard multiple positions (he can harass Durant as well in short stints), hit the occasional long-range jumper and just play smart high bball IQ rotational D, he can be a factor matching up against any death lineup another team throws at us.

The Cavs should be much easier for the C's to match-up with, although LeBron and Irving will be just as tough or tougher for Crowder and Thomas to defend than Durant/Curry. 

However, they pretty much played Smith and Love in all their other crunch time lineups, and I'm more than fine with Avery/Smart and Horford/Amir guarding those two guys. 

The Cavs then either went big with Thompson or small with Jefferson/Dellie. Dellie is gone and Jefferson was already ancient last season. If he falls apart physically he'll be replaced by Shumpert, who actually averaged more mins than Dellie. Again I'm fine with lineups where Amir plays Love  and Horford moved over to defend the burlier Thompson or if they go small Smart/Avery on Jefferson or Shumpert, with of course Thomas getting a breather on Irving and letting Avery hound him a lot of the time. 

Again the Celtics depth will be their advantage. They cannot match LBJ and Irving with Crowder and Thomas, despite those two being very talented NBA players. But they do finally have a player in Horford who is better than either Love or Thompson, whoever he is matched up against, which was not the case the last few years. Then when you get down to throwing guys like Smart, Brown, Jerebko, Olynyk and Rozier against the Cavs depth of Shumpert, Jefferson, Dunleavy, Frye and James Jones you have to think the C's will have the advantage there. 

A lot of it will again come down to just how ready Brown is. If he is not ready, Gerald Green isn't going to be the huge upgrade over Shumpert/Jones that Brown potentially could be, and the C's will probably need to add a wing at the deadline (Rudy Gay?) or wait until next year when they add another top 7 pick, Brown matures and they maybe score another max free agent (Haywood) before they can truly think of displacing the Cavs.

If tonight was any indication the Celtics will have Smart be the first sub of the game for Amir and run lineup of death in the middle of the 1st quarter. 

They'll then leave Smart in at the end of that quarter (and most quarters except maybe the 4th when they go offense/defense) getting starter minutes and Amir will come in and play along with Rozier, Olynyk once he is healthy (Jerebko for now) and Brown or Green (leaning toward Brown). 

When Olynyk comes back I would expect Jerebko, Green and Zeller to fall into the 10th-12th man roles, and yet still get minutes almost every game. Mickey, Hunter and Jackson will be the 13th-15th guys, although I would really like them to make a 3 for 2 deal like Mickey, Young and Jackson for Pierce and Brice Johnson before the season starts.

Or that last deal with LA minus Young and + Avery and Green for the same pckg from LA + Redick. I think Smart will prove ready to be in the starting 5 at SG and Rozier and Brown will be rotational guys with rapidly improving offense games and more than enough defense to make 30 mins of Avery off the bench not worth nearly as much as 40% 3 point shooting from Redick over 22-24 mins (and an extra  6-8 mins given to Brown and Rozier. 

Pierce can occasionally be in a crunch time offense/defense situation with any of Smart, Amir or Crowder, while Rozier and Brown be in offense/defense situations with Thomas.

bobheckler wrote:


Ram,

Redick is 32 years old.  I would not trade the 26 year old #1 defensive guard in the NBA, with a team-friendly contract,  for Redick.  I would need near all-star player quality for Avery and, if his offense is even better this year because of improved 3pt shooting, then maybe not just "near" and not someone with only a few years left.

Besides, this is Redick's last contract year.  You can get him more cheaply at the trade deadline, if Doc is hesitant to re-sign him, or for free next summer.


bob


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Perhaps Rozier and Jerebko should be plugged in to make it more fair, or perhaps the Celtics should wait until the summer to try and sign him in free agency. I agree the value on paper may be too much, but what such a trade does to the roles of the remaining players on the team and the way it sets up the offseason cannot be discounted. 

The Celtics are going to go after Gordon Hayward next summer, that is pretty well known at this point. The only thing is whether they can convince him to leave the Jazz and possibly some cash on the table if the 5 year max with something like 7.5% more salary appeals to him more than the 4 year max with an opt-out before year 4 appeals to him (The same contract Horford got). 

The Celtics will be in much better shape to offer Hayward a job here if Avery's 8.8 million for 2017-18 and 28-32 mins per game at SG were off the books and out of the rotation. They'd have some cash left over after maxing him out to maybe keep Amir here one more year (in case he balks at the MLE) or to allow the team to be more comfortable matching a big offer Olynyk might get or even to extend Thomas a year early under a more team friendly deal than Avery would be looking for. If Avery let's it be known he wants 5/110 and is pretty confident he will get 4/88 from somebody, then it might be more appealing to have Thomas at 4/56 instead (Really 4/64 with an 8 million bonus added on to the 6.2m he is currently owed in 2017-18).

A team with these minutes distributions makes sense:

PG - Thomas (28 mins), Rozier (12), Smart (8 )
SG - Smart (20), Brown (16), Hayward (12)
SF - Hayward (22), Crowder (20), Brown (6)
PF - Horford (32), Crowder (8 ), Net's pick/Brice Johnson or Mickey (8 )
C - Amir (22), Olynyk (18), Net's pick/Zizic (8 )

Where does Hayward fit in if Avery were still in the mix? Either Brown or Rozier or Thomas would have to be gone instead. I'm guessing Danny will try to work it all out by using Rozier, Brown and the Net's pick as the Godfather offer for Cousins. But if Sac still says no, he is really going to be in a pickle. 

Redick has something the C's are pretty desperate for in 3 point shooting. They can make up for Avery's D if two of Rozier, Smart and Crowder are always on the floor with Redick. Redick would get like 20-24 minutes at SG and provide an example for Haywood of how he could look in the offense more than Avery would. The C's would basically say that is your role as a SG only you are better and will do slightly more creative things in it with better defense, then we'll also be giving you 10-14 mins at SF to do your thing there. 

If Hayward signs in Utah the C's could give Redick a solid extension at like 3/45 and again not have to worry about giving Bradley 4/88-5/115 and instead have the contracts and cap space to make a lil more noise.