Jaylen Brown's Improving Defense

I saw this and thought it would be interesting to post and comment on:

https://twitter.com/ESPNForsberg/status/806731876882710528/photo/1


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And while much of focus with Brown is on dunks, he’s quietly been solid defensively. 93rd percentile in @SynergySST. NBA’s tracking data:




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Kyle ShoulkinBartRJ™Cal ThomasCelticsMafia™Brendan HenrySilkroads_SawhMoe BevilacquaBig Kat
9:27 PM - 7 Dec 2016
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bob


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bobheckler wrote:I saw this and thought it would be interesting to post and comment on:

https://twitter.com/ESPNForsberg/status/806731876882710528/photo/1


Follow

Chris ForsbergVerified account
‏@ESPNForsber

And while much of focus with Brown is on dunks, he’s quietly been solid defensively. 93rd percentile in @SynergySST. NBA’s tracking data:




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Kyle ShoulkinBartRJ™Cal ThomasCelticsMafia™Brendan HenrySilkroads_SawhMoe BevilacquaBig Kat
9:27 PM - 7 Dec 2016
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bob


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Bob

I love this site because it brings some meaningful stats to the defensive side of the game (there's only a handful) - but in the case of Brown's stat it has to be noted that it is based on short minutes (14.1) per game as are all the names preceding his (exception Dellavedova). This gives the same type of distortion that using 36 minutes give when applied to low minutes per game stats.

See below site ranking

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/defense/#!/?sort=PCT_PLUSMINUS&dir=-1

But it certainly is a huge plus to be so highly rated among the bench players.

swish

Swish,

With these new "advanced metrics" detailing previously untracked stats (e.g. deflections, tapping out but not grabbing offensive rebounds (I'm sure Jerebko scores quite well with that one!), charges taken, fg% given up by shooting zone and vs season average for the shooters they faced) that are available there are, actually, lots of defensive stats now.  They are slowly becoming made available for free while previously they were available by subscription only.  Before we could only rely upon the "eyeball test".  The problem with the eyeball test is that

1.  You have to watch 100% of every game to be able to have a reliable "eyeball".  Without that, you can just be catching them in their "good' moments or "bad" ones.

2.  You may think they are playing great against a player but compared to other defenders they are not.

3.  There is more to defense than man-to-man.  That has never been truer than today, with the floor spreading as the offense extends to the arc.  Dropping down to contest an entry pass (or deter the entry pass because they fear you will intercept or deflect it) is a help defense stat that has nothing to do with man-to-man but has a lot to do with positioning, anticipation and the rep that is earned from those.

4.  One can think, based upon your eyeball, that they aren't doing a good job defensively because they aren't blocking shots down low, but the shooters are still missing.  Your eyeball may say "he was lucky, that should have gone in from there", but if it happens a lot it isn't luck, it's positioning.

As far as Brown goes, yes, we must be mindful of his limited minutes before proclaiming him the second coming of Dennis Rodman.  In fact, one should not put too much emphasis, good or bad, on any rookie's performance.  A great rookie year could head south in year 2 as they get scouted.


bob


.

bobheckler wrote:Swish,

With these new "advanced metrics" detailing previously untracked stats (e.g. deflections, tapping out but not grabbing offensive rebounds (I'm sure Jerebko scores quite well with that one!), charges taken, fg% given up by shooting zone and vs season average for the shooters they faced) that are available there are, actually, lots of defensive stats now.  They are slowly becoming made available for free while previously they were available by subscription only.  Before we could only rely upon the "eyeball test".  The problem with the eyeball test is that

1.  You have to watch 100% of every game to be able to have a reliable "eyeball".  Without that, you can just be catching them in their "good' moments or "bad" ones.

2.  You may think they are playing great against a player but compared to other defenders they are not.

3.  There is more to defense than man-to-man.  That has never been truer than today, with the floor spreading as the offense extends to the arc.  Dropping down to contest an entry pass (or deter the entry pass because they fear you will intercept or deflect it) is a help defense stat that has nothing to do with man-to-man but has a lot to do with positioning, anticipation and the rep that is earned from those.

4.  One can think, based upon your eyeball, that they aren't doing a good job defensively because they aren't blocking shots down low, but the shooters are still missing.  Your eyeball may say "he was lucky, that should have gone in from there", but if it happens a lot it isn't luck, it's positioning.

As far as Brown goes, yes, we must be mindful of his limited minutes before proclaiming him the second coming of Dennis Rodman.  In fact, one should not put too much emphasis, good or bad, on any rookie's performance.  A great rookie year could head south in year 2 as they get scouted.


bob


.

bob

Great in-depth response. Good to see that your on board with the new technology. The eye ball test for me can also be faulty because of personal bias. Many of my eyeball opinions change when confronted by this new class of reality stats based on video evidence - for me having all day to play with these new sites is sort of a labor of love.

swish

I'm not a stat guy, but am not surprised of Browns defensive progress, hes got great attributes to succeed, on a team with some notable defenders, AB, Smart, Crowder, Horford, he has a great crew of veterans to learn from.

cowens/oldschool wrote:I'm not a stat guy, but am not surprised of Browns defensive progress, hes got great attributes to succeed, on a team with some notable defenders, AB, Smart, Crowder, Horford, he has a great crew of veterans to learn from.

cowens

Do you use them at all to back up an opinion ?

swish

swish wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:I'm not a stat guy, but am not surprised of Browns defensive progress, hes got great attributes to succeed, on a team with some notable defenders, AB, Smart, Crowder, Horford, he has a great crew of veterans to learn from.

cowens

  Do you use them at all to back up an opinion ?

  swish

no, but I'm not surprised that he has some stats to prove hes a good defender, stats are very tricky as one can use/find stats to back up points depending on which way they want to go.

Brown`s gonna be a + defender as soon as the refs quit hazing him