The Boston Celtics’ stockpile of assets is the most overrated thing in the NBA

http://www.foxsports.com/nba/gallery/boston-celtics-nba-trade-deadline-jimmy-butler-demarcus-cousins-carmelo-anthony-draft-pick-020817



The Boston Celtics’ stockpile of assets is the most overrated thing in the NBA



Andrew Lynch  @andrewlynch  



Feb 8, 2017 at 6:29p ET



Can we stop pretending the Boston Celtics will rule the NBA trade market over the next couple of weeks?

Any time you read an article or listen to a talking head, there's a mention of the looming Feb. 23 deadline and how the Celtics can shake up the entire Association by packaging their "treasure trove of assets" for a star player.

But if we're being honest, Boston's supposed stockpile is the single most overrated thing in the entire NBA. While there are undoubtedly some stellar pieces rattling around the Celtics' cabinets these days — particularly the draft picks from the Brooklyn Nets — the reality of the situation is Boston has nothing to pair with that lottery-based potential.

Don't believe me? Let's go through Boston's best assets, from the top trade chip to the pieces Danny Ainge hopes you won't investigate too closely before finalizing your transaction.



Boston Globe via Getty Images Boston Globe


1.  2017 first-round pick swap with the Brooklyn Nets 1 2017 first-round pick swap with the Brooklyn Nets

This is the crown jewel of Boston's supposed hoard, and even it comes with significant caveats. First, the Celtics don't own the Nets' pick outright. They own the right to swap picks with Brooklyn, which complicates trading for the pick.

Second, at this point in time, any team trading for that pick is at the mercy of probability. No matter how bad the Nets are, there's only a 25 percent chance this turns into the first overall pick.

While the Brooklyn pick won't fall any lower than No. 4, the chance you end up with something less than the best-case scenario diminishes the pick's value, as well.






2.  Brooklyn's 2018 first-round pick with no protections 2 Brooklyn's 2018 first-round pick with no protections

Assuming Brooklyn will be awful for the next several years — and that feels pretty safe — this pick is nearly as valuable as the 2017 selection. You're essentially exchanging the possibility the Nets improve for the right to keep your own pick rather than sending it back to Boston, as with the aforementioned asset.

Yet if the Celtics want to make a big move, they probably have to send both the 2017 and 2018 picks away. And without a guaranteed superstar on the market, Boston's not going to act that rashly.

---

The Celtics own the Clippers' 2019 first-round pick as well, but for now, it's hard to project what kind of value that asset will have moving forward.





3.  Avery Bradley, SG 3 Avery Bradley, SG

Bradley's the best player the Celtics would be willing to move in a deal, which isn't really saying much. He provides solid value as a 3-point shooter and a defender, but he's also 26 years old and probably won't get much better than he already is.

He's the kind of piece you try to sign in free agency to round out a championship contender, not the centerpiece of a blockbuster trade.




4.  Jaylen Brown, SF 4 Jaylen Brown, SF

The 20-year-old Brown is the most intriguing young player in Boston; even I can't ignore his potential upside. Yet there are some in the NBA who compare Brown to James Harden, which is the most misguided comparison I've heard in quite a while.

The only similarity is Brown's penchant for drawing contact at the weirdest angles to get to the line. Harden, though, uses his nose for free throw to complement his stellar skills as a playmaker, shooter, and finisher at the rim. Brown doesn't have any of that at all.





5.  Jae Crowder, SF 5 Jae Crowder, SF

Celtics fans will tell you how crucial Crowder is to Boston's success, and they're right. He's a fantastic glue guy who does all the little things, plus a few big things when the Celtics need him most.

Like Bradley, though, Crowder is 26 years old and a better fit on a contender, not a team trading for draft picks and young guys with upside.



Ken Blaze Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports


6.  Marcus Smart, PG 6 Marcus Smart, PG

A 22-year-old Boston point guard who can't shoot, has flashed anger issues, and doesn't always make the best decisions on the court?

I've seen how Rajon Rondo's career plays out in the modern NBA. I don't need to see it again with Smart — especially since he can't really pass, either.





7.  Kelly Olynyk, PF 7 Kelly Olynyk, PF

... you know what? No.

I'm not going to lie to you and say the 25-year-old Olynyk is an asset of any kind. I will not say that about Jordan Mickey, Tyler Zeller, Terry Rozier, or James Young, either.

The fact of the matter is Danny Ainge has drafted incredibly poorly over the years, and Boston's roster reflects his poor decision-making.

If the Celtics want to be active at the deadline, they either need a frustrated star who wants out or a front office with no idea what it's doing — which means Boston's only hope is to keep chasing Jimmy Butler (sorry, Bulls fans).



bob
MY NOTE:  I don't have the time to respond right now, but everybody else have at it, I'll get to him tomorrow. Too busy sharpening my knives...


.

bobheckler wrote:http://www.foxsports.com/nba/gallery/boston-celtics-nba-trade-deadline-jimmy-butler-demarcus-cousins-carmelo-anthony-draft-pick-020817



The Boston Celtics’ stockpile of assets is the most overrated thing in the NBA



Andrew Lynch  @andrewlynch  



Feb 8, 2017 at 6:29p ET



Can we stop pretending the Boston Celtics will rule the NBA trade market over the next couple of weeks?

Any time you read an article or listen to a talking head, there's a mention of the looming Feb. 23 deadline and how the Celtics can shake up the entire Association by packaging their "treasure trove of assets" for a star player.

But if we're being honest, Boston's supposed stockpile is the single most overrated thing in the entire NBA. While there are undoubtedly some stellar pieces rattling around the Celtics' cabinets these days — particularly the draft picks from the Brooklyn Nets — the reality of the situation is Boston has nothing to pair with that lottery-based potential.

Don't believe me? Let's go through Boston's best assets, from the top trade chip to the pieces Danny Ainge hopes you won't investigate too closely before finalizing your transaction.



Boston Globe via Getty Images Boston Globe


1.  2017 first-round pick swap with the Brooklyn Nets 1 2017 first-round pick swap with the Brooklyn Nets

This is the crown jewel of Boston's supposed hoard, and even it comes with significant caveats. First, the Celtics don't own the Nets' pick outright. They own the right to swap picks with Brooklyn, which complicates trading for the pick.

Second, at this point in time, any team trading for that pick is at the mercy of probability. No matter how bad the Nets are, there's only a 25 percent chance this turns into the first overall pick.

While the Brooklyn pick won't fall any lower than No. 4, the chance you end up with something less than the best-case scenario diminishes the pick's value, as well.






2.  Brooklyn's 2018 first-round pick with no protections 2 Brooklyn's 2018 first-round pick with no protections

Assuming Brooklyn will be awful for the next several years — and that feels pretty safe — this pick is nearly as valuable as the 2017 selection. You're essentially exchanging the possibility the Nets improve for the right to keep your own pick rather than sending it back to Boston, as with the aforementioned asset.

Yet if the Celtics want to make a big move, they probably have to send both the 2017 and 2018 picks away. And without a guaranteed superstar on the market, Boston's not going to act that rashly.

---

The Celtics own the Clippers' 2019 first-round pick as well, but for now, it's hard to project what kind of value that asset will have moving forward.





3.  Avery Bradley, SG 3 Avery Bradley, SG

Bradley's the best player the Celtics would be willing to move in a deal, which isn't really saying much. He provides solid value as a 3-point shooter and a defender, but he's also 26 years old and probably won't get much better than he already is.

He's the kind of piece you try to sign in free agency to round out a championship contender, not the centerpiece of a blockbuster trade.




4.  Jaylen Brown, SF 4 Jaylen Brown, SF

The 20-year-old Brown is the most intriguing young player in Boston; even I can't ignore his potential upside. Yet there are some in the NBA who compare Brown to James Harden, which is the most misguided comparison I've heard in quite a while.

The only similarity is Brown's penchant for drawing contact at the weirdest angles to get to the line. Harden, though, uses his nose for free throw to complement his stellar skills as a playmaker, shooter, and finisher at the rim. Brown doesn't have any of that at all.





5.  Jae Crowder, SF 5 Jae Crowder, SF

Celtics fans will tell you how crucial Crowder is to Boston's success, and they're right. He's a fantastic glue guy who does all the little things, plus a few big things when the Celtics need him most.

Like Bradley, though, Crowder is 26 years old and a better fit on a contender, not a team trading for draft picks and young guys with upside.



Ken Blaze Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports


6.  Marcus Smart, PG 6 Marcus Smart, PG

A 22-year-old Boston point guard who can't shoot, has flashed anger issues, and doesn't always make the best decisions on the court?

I've seen how Rajon Rondo's career plays out in the modern NBA. I don't need to see it again with Smart — especially since he can't really pass, either.





7.  Kelly Olynyk, PF 7 Kelly Olynyk, PF

... you know what? No.

I'm not going to lie to you and say the 25-year-old Olynyk is an asset of any kind. I will not say that about Jordan Mickey, Tyler Zeller, Terry Rozier, or James Young, either.

The fact of the matter is Danny Ainge has drafted incredibly poorly over the years, and Boston's roster reflects his poor decision-making.

If the Celtics want to be active at the deadline, they either need a frustrated star who wants out or a front office with no idea what it's doing — which means Boston's only hope is to keep chasing Jimmy Butler (sorry, Bulls fans).



bob
MY NOTE:  I don't have the time to respond right now, but everybody else have at it, I'll get to him tomorrow.  Too busy sharpening my knives...


.

Smart can`t pass? What games has this guy been watching?

1. We are not trading our 2017 pick from the Nyets, so STFU Andrew.
2. Ditto #1, and we are definitely not trading both our 2017 and 2018 picks for anyone not named Kevin Durant.
3. Avery "probably won't get much better than he already is" ??? He's improved every single year so far.
4. Re - Harden's "stellar skills as a playmaker, shooter, and finisher at the rim. Brown doesn't have any of that at all." Andrew, we are not trading Jaylen anyways, so STFU. And Jaylen does have skills - developing - as a playmaker and finisher, but more importantly, he is already twice the defender Harden ever was. Ever. And for $24 M less a year.
5. Jae is not great trade bait, agreed, but he is a solid player.
6. Marcus is a fine passer, has very little problem with anger issues, so what is your problem with him? Yes, he is not a good shooter, but some other teams would salivate to have him off the bench. And we are not parting with him for chump change. He's more than glue. He's gumption. And why Scrooge out on Rajon? RR deserves some love for what he did here and in Sacto, and the Bulls management and superstars are the problem this year, not Rajon.
7. FU when you say Kelly and Rozier are not assets of any kind, and double triple FU for saying Danny has drafted incredibly poorly over the years.
Perk, Big Al, Rajon, Avery, Tony Allen, and Big Baby were all snagged way back in the draft and turned out more than just fine. To say "Boston's roster reflects his poor decision-making" - you mean the roster that is now #2 in the East? That roster? Quadruple FU Andrew Lynch. The only thing you know about poor drafts is what shows up on your computer screen after you've pecked away at your keyboard.

W.

Who is this dick? we have a great young backcourt, add Jaylens size and its even better and deeper.....we'll get a great shot at the best talent with those 2 picks, not a bad situation for 2 seed in the East and we even have Yabu and Zizic coming over to develop and add more depth and firepower. IT is playing at a historic level, AB and Smart are 2 defensive pitbulls. Jaylen can play the 2 and 3, Crowder the 3 and 4, Yabu can play the 3 and 4 possibly, Horford will have a mobile defensive rebounding big to play with next year in Zizic and the speedy Rozier can only get better and we have a top 3 pick, possibly no 1 pick....you'd rather be Orlando or the Knicks?

He's probably a Lakers fan.

they have to TANK to even keep their pick this year, LOL.

he'd cream himself if the Lakers had  Danny's assets.


with that out of the way, I do agree with him on the ranking of our tops assets available.

1-6 I agree with

7. Kelly
8. Rozier
9. Zizic and/or Yabusele
10. Zeller

In some ways I do agree that the Cs "assets" are over-rated because when having so many potential moving parts it may very well make any one part seem less valuable.

This was a problem two drafts ago when Charlotte turned down a batch of Cs draft picks in order to take Frank Kaminski.  It may have been a problem last summer when Ainge was not able to make a trade for any rebounding help.

And, it may again be a problem right now heading into the trading deadline this season.  

Sometimes when you have fewer things to trade the other traders may be more inclined to look at what you have differently as what you have may shine greater than when it is lost in a sea of options.

Clyde, I think the player we wanted and Charlotte kept was Justin Winslow. Hawk

hawksnestbeach wrote:Clyde, I think the player we wanted and Charlotte kept was Justin Winslow. Hawk

Actually, the player we wanted was Justise Winslow and, to get him, Danny offered MJ a boatload of picks to move up to #9 so he could take him before Riley did at #10. Charlotte turned Danny down and picked Kaminsky with #9.

There is a HUGE difference between trying to convince a GM to sell a mid-lottery pick for a low-lottery pick than trying to sell them a #1-4 pick. The decline in value as you move down the draft is not straight line.


bob


.

Justise, Thank you, Bob. Hawk

Okay, now that I have a few minutes to address this, and have gotten past my initial visceral reaction, I'm ready to take a swing at it.

I am willing to agree, in general, with some of his points but only as it relates to trading something by the trade deadline.  

1.  The value of this year's Nets pick won't be clearly established by then.  Sure, we know it will be in the top 4 but that's not #1 for sure.  Does that weaken Danny's negotiating position?  Ask someone who follows college sports more than me about the difference in talent levels between Fultz or Ball and the next two or three players after them.  If there isn't much difference, and they say this is a deeper than usual draft, then this guy is wrong because then #4 is almost as good as #1.  If It's Fultz and Ball or Ball and Fultz and everybody else drops way off then he has a point.  Once we get to the end of the season and the lottery seeding is set then the only point he has is on top of his head since even a #4 is still pretty good.

2.  Ditto for next year's pick.  The value of that pick will become clearer as we see what changes Brooklyn makes or doesn't make in the off season.  If they just diddle around the edges then they will suck next year too and that elevates that pick, although we won't know the true value of that one either before the trade deadline next year.  See #1 above, add 365 days.

3.  I agree with worcester.  Bradley is the top defensive guard in the league.  He has improved every single year.  He is only 26.  People who fall in love with a 19 year old often find themselves divorced by 26 and nobody is filing for a divorce from Avery Bradley.

4.  So, Jaylen Brown isn't an asset because he doesn't like other people's comparisons to James Har-en (no "D")?  Fine, so he isn't Harden, but Harden isn't him neither.  Remember, Harden wasn't Harden until after he had left OKC, where he was good but not great, and even then it has taken Mike 'Antoni (No "D" either) to allow Harden to get away with not playing defense.  Brown is a rookie, at the front end of a highly desirable rookie contract.  I think GMs would be drooling over getting him, especially if they are giving up a player that they think is too old, or inappropriate, to be part of a rebuild (e.g. Phil with Carmelo, Orlando with Ibaka, Sacto with Cousins) just to name one possible scenario.

5.  Jae Crowder, like Avery Bradley, is the wretchedly ancient age of 26.  Time to start shoveling dirt on him.  Idiot.  And what is wrong with getting a starting player from the #2 team in the EC AND picks?  Idiot squared.

6.  His argument regarding Smart is such pure nonsense adding horseshit straight from the back-end of a horse would dilute it.  He doesn't mention Smart's shooting, which is a legitimate concern, but instead talks about anger problems dating back to OK State and then is unaware that Smart's assists/minute are up over 50% this year while his assist-to-TO ratio is healthy (2.35:1) and virtually unchanged from last year.

7.  Is Kelly an asset "of any kind"?  Well, we'll see this summer if not before.  If nobody will trade for him that doesn't mean he's not an asset, it just might mean Danny wants too much for him.  An asset, but not the golden boy Danny is selling him as.  This summer, when he is a free agent and offers come in for him, and they will, then we will know what the league thinks of him.


I looked up who this guy is that wrote this.  Before he starting writing for ESPN he made his living as a professional poker player.  It is the nature of poker players to oversell weak hands, to bluff, while underselling strong hands to encourage aggressive betting.  Then again, maybe he just doesn't know what he's talking about and should go back to analysis he can handle, like recognizing the difference between red hearts and black spades, and stay away from playing amateur NBA GM.


bob


.

It's not unheard of, or even unusual, that on a balanced team with several solid contributors, no one "asset" is all that strong.  Yet team efforts can and do win titles.

If our trade assets are "overrated," we have some good draft positions this year and next, and we're currently second in the East, I can live with that.

Andrew Lynch may not have considered that point of view.