POST GAME CHICAGO - HOME - PLAYOFF SERIES #2 > THE AUTOPSY

The team needs to be gutted at season's end. KO is a waste of time for a team looking for height and rebounding and toughness which the Celtics need.

Jerebko is marginal and could stay or go, but I like the fact that he brings energy and will stick his nose in to get rebounds.

Rosier is a keeper and could take off next year. He just needs to play.

IT...where would the Celtics and Danny be if IT did not step - up and take over the team. The flaw........he is the only true scorer on the team.

We need a shooter ....a go to guy. If Anthony is bought out....I would go for him short term. Trading for him is a waste of $25 million even for 1 year. The Celtics need a few free agents locked up for 3-4 years to create synergy.

If we get Fultz, IT could be great trade bait for the right player.

112288

cowens/oldschool wrote:theres always a key moment when KO gets lazy and doesn't even raise his hands/arms on a mid range or back to the basket shot, pathetic defensive player, if hes here next year Danny is an idiot !!!!!! it hurts my eyes watching this spasz play.

A spaz or clumsy seem to be appropriate words for Olynyk.
When Kelly switches from a screen and roll and has to guard a guard or small forward, they seem to take advantage of him on almost every occasion.
Boston's big's outside of Horford are not more than average NBA players.
Kelly as a 9th or 10th player is fine.
Having him as your best big off the bench, that's not a good thing.

cowens/oldschool wrote:as bad as Amir has been, he defends 4-5's way better than girlie man !!!!!!!!

Amir has defended no one this week.

IMO, the Celtics' lack of imposing BIGs goes right back to the Perk trade. I say that as a fan who hoped we'd trade the double-pumping stone-handed center for a more mobile and better BIG. I didn't mind Perkins for Green, because it seemed that Danny must have had his eyes on a center back when the 5 was a center. Back before the last legs of two ONeals, Rasheed Wallace and Mikki Moore. Amir Johnson was nearly washed up as a starter in Toronto. Just wearing green will not change that. He does all the little things, but it's the BIG things we need. I watched the last Cleveland game and it was like the middle schoolers against the high schoolers and the BIG boys won. I say this not to pick on IT because on a good team, I think he might be the best 6th man in basketball. But we need other men. Bigger men. Rondo for Crowder may have been the best we could do, but Crowder wasn't an all-star in Dallas and won't be in Boston. I don't think blowing up the team will move us ahead, don't know what last year's Euro picks can do, but of the players I've seen, I'd keep Brown, IT (no max contract), Rozier, & Smart. All the rest are poker chips. Hawk

mulcogiseng wrote:I've been sayin all year this is a flawed roster. I'm sayin now there is no need to panic. Take a breath and relax a second. No need to blow it up now and start all over again. Next year is year 5 of the rebuild. We have the players in the wings who meet the needs of this team. We have a low post rebounder, rim protector,  and scorer, we have a big who can get his own shot, take it to the rim, drain the 3, and we have a wing slasher who can hit from outside or take it to the hoop. We also have a top 3 pick in a good draft. This season's disappointment rests on Danny's shoulders for not having the right talent available for Brad. It also rests on Brad's shoulders for not utilizing his roster and maximizing the talent that he did have. Lose in the first round again and its a disappointment, not a setback. Certainly no reason to blow it up and start again. We are close, very close. We still need a piece or two and we have those guys in the wings. Let's give them a chance next year. It will still take an advantageous deal for Danny to pull the trigger. We don't need Melo or some other me first superstar. If we move part of the core it has to be for someone like Butler who showed last night what he can do. If someone needs to "stay the course" it's Danny not Phil IMO, of course.

Good, level-headed post. We may be lucky if this series goes 5 games, but that doesn't warrant "hitting the reset" button. Celtics overachieved a little in the regular season. They always played hard, and as a result they probably beat some more talented teams that were just taking a night off in the course of an 82 game season. This is apparent in their low overall point differential. Now, in the playoffs, every team is focused and plays hard, and our lack of talent is catching up. All that being said, developing a 50 win team is not trivial. Danny did it quickly, so maybe some folks think its easy to do. Its not. The same shitty teams are in the lottery year after year, never getting any better even though they are getting high draft picks. Everyone knew this team was not really ready to contend. Everyone knew we are one or two players away. This series doesn't change that, it only reinforces what we all knew. We are still a player or two away. Don't forget that other than Amir and Al, everyone on the Celtics is probably on the upslope of their career arc. Amir is probably toast, but Al can still be a key piece of a contending team for another year or two. I see no sign that IT has "lost a step" or that he is slowing down. He will average mid 20s again next year, and probably be even craftier. The point is, most guys will probably be a little better next year. BUT, they are still a player or two away. Danny knows this. Brad knows it. Wyc knows it. I'm sure all the guys on the team know it (though they wouldn't say it outloud). The Patriots built their dyansty by putting out the best team they can every year. I'm sure Belichik doesn't expect to win every year, but he maximizes his chances, and knows the value of being in the conversation each year. It can lead to players wanting to get on that train. Also, in some years luck will help push a contender to be a champion. Maximize your chances but putting out a team that only needs a little luck/fortune. Spurs have a similar model. My guess is that this is what Danny and Brad envision, and I think that's the way to go. Are they there yet? Obviously not. Are they closer than most teams in the NBA? Probably. I for one hope they don't "hit the reset", but rather gnore this unfortunate but understandable blip of a playoff round and continue this remarkable rebuild.

wins and losses can be assigned to the same group (Players, coaches, GM's scouts, trainers, etc.)

THE AUTOPSY  revealed that the team was DOA.  How long have we been harping on the lack of size issue?  How long has the lack of a reliable scorer off the bench killed this team.  how many times have we checked the box score and were appalled that the team took and missed a ton of three point shots. how many times have we scratched our head about some odd rotation.  how many times has the team played like dog shit over long stretches and the coach did jack to correct the problem.

Rumors that Stevens is some sort of offensive savant are greatly exaggerated.  

dboss

Steve -astute analyses as always.

steve3344 wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:bob you talk too much and are putting a lot of words in my mouth.

I'll keep it really simple, KO has to go !!!! he sucks get it, got it.....good

KO regular season shooting %: .477
KO playoff shooting %: .395

KO rebounds per 36 minutes regular season: 8.2
KO rebounds per 36 minutes playoffs: 4.6

Steve,

As long as we are using stats to prove a point, let's be comprehensive and focused.  Your 39.5% playoff shooting % is his career playoff fg%, which includes last year's 11.1% while playing with a shoulder that needed surgery for only 8mpg and his sophomore year where we got creamed by Cleveland and NOT just this year's playoff fg%.  The same is true with your rebounds/36, you are comparing his career playoff numbers to this season's averages.  I will compare this year's regular season vs this year's playoffs.  The point is to determine if he is stepping up in the these playoffs to see if he is a playoff player worth keeping around next year, is it not?  All stats are courtesy of basketball-reference.com.  http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/olynyke01.html



2016-2017................................asts/36.....TO/36.....asts:TO.......ast%.......blks/36.....stls/36.....3ptfga/36.....3ptfg%/36-----OffRtg-----DefRtg-----Diff
Regular Season---------------------3.5---------2.2-------1.59:1-------15.2%-----.7----------1.0---------4.5------------35.4%---------113--------107-------+6
Playoffs-to-date--------------------7.7---------.8---------9.63:1-------33.6%-----2.3---------2.3--------6.1------------37.5%---------125--------112--------+13


His fg% is off from his season average, but his 3pt fgas are 33% more/36 and his 3pt fg% is better.  So sure, his overall fg% will be weaker because 3pters have lower fg% than 2ptrs and he's taking more 3ptrs.  He is averaging more than double the number of assists/36 in the playoffs this year, he is turning the ball over 1/3 as much so his assists-to-TO ratio is almost 6x as good in the playoffs this year.  Ast% is the percentage of the team's fgs were assisted when a player is on the floor.  His ast% in these playoffs is more than double what he averaged this season.  That means the team's offense is more team-oriented because more fgm are assisted when Kelly is on the floor.  That's pretty important when you have a team whose forte is catch-and-shoot and not one-on-one, as opposed to teams like Cleveland or even Chicago, who give the ball to LeBron or Butler or DWade and just let them do their thing.  His playoff blocks/36 are triple his regular season rate.  His steals are >2x.  The team is scoring 12 more points/100 possessions in the playoffs/100 possessions when he is on the floor than they did in the regular season but are only giving up 5 more points/100 to the other team.

His points/36 is off a bit, as is his rebounds/36, but he is a lot more effective offensively overall.  He's assisting more, turning over less and spreading the floor more with more 3pt fgas that he is hitting at a higher percentage.  That's why his offensive rating is so much better.  


As long as we're talking about players and comparing their performance in the playoffs vs their regular season averages, here are some more:

Amir is shooting 36.4% for the playoffs.  He's shooting 40% from 2 in the playoffs vs 61% during the year and is getting eaten alive on the boards by his man, Robin Lopez.  That's why he only played 9 minutes last night. When a starter is so ineffective he is not only benched but is barely playing rotation minutes, that's a big damn deal.

Avery Bradley averaged 6.6 rebounds/36 during the year but is only averaging 2.4 rebounds/36 in these playoffs.  He also averaged 46% in the season, 39% from 3.  He's only 35.7% and 33% in the playoffs.  His points/36 in the season was 17.5 but during the playoffs it's only 12.5.  For a player that is averaging 37mpg in the playoffs those 5 points difference is a lot and it shows in his offensive/defensive ratings.  His offensive rating (the number of points the team scores/100 possessions when he is on the floor) in the playoffs is only 83.  His defensive rating (the number of points the team gives up/100 possessions when he is on the floor) is 116.  Those numbers are MUCH worse than his 105 and 108 regular season numbers.  MUCH worse.  A starter on a team, playing 37mpg, that is only averaging 83ppg/100 possessions is NOT good.  If we're looking for a reason why we are getting outrebounded, how about looking at a player who is averaging 35% as many in the playoffs?  Not 35% less, like Kelly, but 35% of the season average.  Bradley averaged 1.7 TOs/36 during the season.  He is averaging 2.9/36 in the playoffs and his assists/36 are about the same.

Jae Crowder shot 46% during the year and 39.8% from 3.  In the playoffs he's shooting 43% and 27.3% from 3.  He's averaging 33mpg in the playoffs.

I understand that Kelly seems to provoke a lot of emotion on this board by some members but maybe we should focus on the play of the players who are playing a ton of minutes, and therefore having a material impact on the game, rather than on a bench player averaging <24mpg in the playoffs.  Kelly is not losing this series for us. Bradley and Amir, just to name two, are.



bob


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Shamrock1000 wrote:

mulcogiseng wrote:I've been sayin all year this is a flawed roster. I'm sayin now there is no need to panic. Take a breath and relax a second. No need to blow it up now and start all over again. Next year is year 5 of the rebuild. We have the players in the wings who meet the needs of this team. We have a low post rebounder, rim protector,  and scorer, we have a big who can get his own shot, take it to the rim, drain the 3, and we have a wing slasher who can hit from outside or take it to the hoop. We also have a top 3 pick in a good draft. This season's disappointment rests on Danny's shoulders for not having the right talent available for Brad. It also rests on Brad's shoulders for not utilizing his roster and maximizing the talent that he did have. Lose in the first round again and its a disappointment, not a setback. Certainly no reason to blow it up and start again. We are close, very close. We still need a piece or two and we have those guys in the wings. Let's give them a chance next year. It will still take an advantageous deal for Danny to pull the trigger. We don't need Melo or some other me first superstar. If we move part of the core it has to be for someone like Butler who showed last night what he can do. If someone needs to "stay the course" it's Danny not Phil IMO, of course.

Good, level-headed post. We may be lucky if this series goes 5 games, but that doesn't warrant "hitting the reset" button. Celtics overachieved a little in the regular season. They always played hard, and as a result they probably beat some more talented teams that were just taking a night off in the course of an 82 game season. This is apparent in their low overall point differential. Now, in the playoffs, every team is focused and plays hard, and our lack of talent is catching up. All that being said, developing a 50 win team is not trivial. Danny did it quickly, so maybe some folks think its easy to do. Its not. The same shitty teams are in the lottery year after year, never getting any better even though they are getting high draft picks. Everyone knew this team was not really ready to contend. Everyone knew we are one or two players away. This series doesn't change that, it only reinforces what we all knew. We are still a player or two away. Don't forget that other than Amir and Al, everyone on the Celtics is probably on the upslope of their career arc. Amir is probably toast, but Al can still be a key piece of a contending team for another year or two. I see no sign that IT has "lost a step" or that he is slowing down. He will average mid 20s again next year, and probably be even craftier. The point is, most guys will probably be a little better next year. BUT, they are still a player or two away. Danny knows this. Brad knows it. Wyc knows it. I'm sure all the guys on the team know it (though they wouldn't say it outloud). The Patriots built their dyansty by putting out the best team they can every year. I'm sure Belichik doesn't expect to win every year, but he maximizes his chances, and knows the value of being in the conversation each year. It can lead to players wanting to get on that train. Also, in some years luck will help push a contender to be a champion. Maximize your chances but putting out a team that only needs a little luck/fortune. Spurs have a similar model. My guess is that this is what Danny and Brad envision, and I think that's the way to go. Are they there yet? Obviously not. Are they closer than most teams in the NBA? Probably. I for one hope they don't "hit the reset", but rather gnore this unfortunate but understandable blip of a playoff round and continue this remarkable rebuild.

"We may be lucky if this series goes 5 games."

We MAY be lucky??  We'd be so incredibly lucky to be going home for a game 5 after winning two games in Chicago that it doesn't even seem possible, based on how we were manhandled twice in Boston. To have a slightly above average center like Robin Lopez dominate our bigs in both games was a real eye-opener.

worcester wrote:Steve -astute analyses as always.

Not any analysis. Just reprinting some 36 minute comparative regular season vs playoff stats for KO.

Steve, I'll have to rescind my astute analysis award when it comes to comments about KO and give that to Bob H. Otherwise your observations are right on the money. Bob's too. Kelly should not be the scapegoat for the failures in the past two games, but Avery and Amir, two starters have for some inscrutable reason sucked, and Al has been just OK. Jae has been subpar, Isaiah has been good but not great, and Brad has not had his best days. With the benefit of hindsight I have to say Chicago has better starting players. Rondo, Butler, and Dwayne are all REALLY talented players, and Lopez is better than any of our big men. Only IT comes close on the offensive end to being on their level and certainly not defensively. I do like Smart and Rozier though. Gutsy under pressure performers.

kdp59 wrote:LOL...yes Bob I am off the rails a bit.

after reflecting a bit on my meltdown, I would rather send Horford back to the Hawks and take back Howard and his slightly smaller deal that has one year less on it. My only idea is to get Horford contract off our books faster somehow.

with IT, I am saying that he may be at his peak and after next year will want max dollars. If I can sell high I will, other wise let him walk for greener dollars after next year. I think his game has peaked and as he loses a half step , his game will show it.

our top draft pick should be his replacement in two years.

Rozier over IT? Neeeeeoooooo. IT should not be going anywhere but up in the rafters once his Celtic career is over.

gyso wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:as bad as Amir has been, he defends 4-5's way better than girlie man !!!!!!!!

Amir has defended no one this week.

he defended Lopez, didn't go well, KO would never get an assignment like Lopez because it would be even worse.

Look guys, we just don't have the talent, period.

Berlin - T

Spot on!  We have fringe talent and two talents - (IT) who is flawed due to his height, and - (AH) who is skilled at every level but a tad below being a major superstar player.

We have no rebounding and no go to snipper/shooter to rely on in the clutch.

(AB) a great defensive player but should not be a starter, he should be a 6th man off the bench to come in play tough D-F and do some scoring. At 6'2" he is now too small for SG position in today's NBA.

(JC) a good SF that can score and play tough D-F but is just a level below being a great player.

(MS)  Great defender, has the height at 6'5" to play SG but he is hot and cold shooting wise. Again, not a bad guy to bring off the bench but I would not rely on him being a starter.

(TR) Verdict not in yet as he needs another year with more playing time, but does show some great talent.

(JB)  Could be a star in the making, he is very young and just needs more refinement of his shooting skills and more playing time.

The rest of the team.............bring to the compost pile and recycle through some trades or just release.

112288

Totally agree Berlin but Kelly may be a keeper at the right price.

112288 wrote:Berlin - T

Spot on!  We have fringe talent and two talents - (IT) who is flawed due to his height, and - (AH) who is skilled at every level but a tad below being a major superstar player.

We have no rebounding and no go to snipper/shooter to rely on in the clutch.

(AB) a great defensive player but should not be a starter, he should be a 6th man off the bench to come in play tough D-F and do some scoring. At 6'2" he is now too small for SG position in today's NBA.

(JC) a good SF that can score and play tough D-F but is just a level below being a great player.

(MS)  Great defender, has the height at 6'5" to play SG but he is hot and cold shooting wise. Again, not a bad guy to bring off the bench but I would not rely on him being a starter.

(TR) Verdict not in yet as he needs another year with more playing time, but does show some great talent.

(JB)  Could be a star in the making, he is very young and just needs more refinement of his shooting skills and more playing time.

The rest of the team.............bring to the compost pile and recycle through some trades or just release.

112288

112288,

A pretty good synopsis.

As far as needing a sniper goes, we all see that but does Brad?  He has Gerald Green, who has shown he can go zero-to-microwave hot in no time flat, but he's not getting minutes.  Will Danny PAY for a sniper for longer than a rental?  Only if Brad is committed to giving him regular minutes.  We might be in the same position we are in now, where we have someone sitting on the shelf who gets dusted off and put on the court only when Brad runs out of darts.  Gerald Green is a "in case of emergency, break glass" player.  How much quality can we get if that's how a player sees their role.  Green is another reclamation project, like Evan Turner was.  

This is just my opinion, reading tea leaves and analyzing goat entrails, but I think Danny is committed to his 2007 course of action.  He's building assets so he can convince someone to give us a superstar.  Ok, so that is somewhat obvious, but how does that translate into filling our needs?  You're not parking one over the fence by landing a great rebounder.  That's not a coup.  Same with a shooter if he doesn't also play defense and either board or pass.  Then we're talking about an all-star like DeRozan or McCollum or such.  

What happened in 2007?  Danny traded for perennial all-star and future HOFer Ray Allen, giving us the 2nd leg of the stool and then really swung for the fences with KG.  AFTER THOSE DEALS WERE DONE he went out and got a sniper in Eddie House and a Swiss Army Knife named James Posey.  Rebounding depth was an afterthought until it became obvious we needed help there, despite having the best record in the league, so we talked PJ Brown into coming out of retirement. Ray Allen wasn't just "a sniper", he was a world-class sniper. Will Portland trade McCollum? Will Toronto trade DeRozan? Nope. They're young and not Ray Allen's age in 2007 and coming off of bone spurs in his heel.

My conclusion, based upon my careful review of the irrefutable evidence provided by that poor goat, is that I am not optimistic Danny is going to try to "score big" for either a rebounder or shooter.  He will go big for Kevin Love, who is an all-star rebounder and scorer.  He will go big for Jimmy Butler or Paul George because they are all-star scorers and players but he won't work harder than bringing Zizic and Yabby here to fix the rebounding and scoring.  In a way, I can't blame him.  Amir is really showing his limitations.  He's a good defender, a hustle player who does a lot of intangibles that don't show up in boxscores, but he isn't going to take us up to the next level because he is so limited offensively and isn't a board monster defensively.  He doesn't own people the way all those other players can in at least one aspect of the game. So, how are we upgrading if replace him with another good but limited player?


bob


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BOB,

As usual SPOT ON!

Yes, you captured Brad & Danny pretty well in your post. Green should be used more often, what the hell is Brad waiting for. Oh he cannot play defense? We are getting our brains beaten in and not stopping much of Chicago's offense, so what defense do you mean......the starters or Green? If a couple of shots begin to fall for us via Green, that means less rebounds by Chicago and thus less scoring.

Yep Danny will take a slow approach until something comes his way.......kind of like a bottom feeder..........taking scrap leftovers while Bigger Fish Feast!

112288

Wake Up Brad!

cowens/oldschool wrote:bob I find your constant praising of Kelly pathetic, he couldn't even make the Washington Generals better, you've lost it my friend.

Perhaps if you were as critical towards the 3 other front court bigs playing bench minutes ( Johnson, Jerebko and Zeller) as you are of Olynyk - Who you have made your personal whipping boy, there would be no need to mount a defense on his behalf.

Consider the following comparisons between the 4 for the 2016-17 season.

* Minutes played
* Per game - Olynynk - 20.5,,,,, Rebs per Game - 4.8,,, Per 36 minutes - 8.4
* Per game - Johnson - 20.1,,,,, Rebs per game - 4.6,,, Per 36 minutes - 8.2
* Per game - Jerebko - 15.8,,,,, Rebs per game - 3.5 Per 36 minutes - 7.9
* Per game - Zeller - 10.3,,,,, Rebs per game 2.4,,, Per 36 minutes - 8.5

Points per game (same minutes as above)

* Olynynk - points per game - 9.0,,, per 36 minutes - 15.9
* Johnson - points per game - 6.5,,, per 36 minutes - 11.6
* Jerebko - points per game - 3.8,,, per 36 minutes - 8.7
* Zeller - points per game - 3.5,,, per 36 minutes - 12.2

Save a few lashes for Johnson, Jerebko and Zeller

swish

Swish,

Thanks for the stats. I guess the backlash against KO is mounting because he is viewed by many as one of the components to bring banner #18 back to TD Garden and the future of the Celtics, while the other 3 mentioned players are considered past tense either due to age or skill level.  In essence they are fillers for Danny's teams at the present moment to make the salary cap work.

At least that is how I am approaching the KO situation.

As I stated above those 3 players you cited are included in my compost pile for recycling.

112288

112288

Your right - high expectations by many but after 4 years of short playing minutes, an average of 20.7 minutes per game, would tend to indicate that he has some serious flaws in his game. He is what he is - a decent off the bench role player.

swish

Ben Rohrbach @brohrbach
about 1 hour ago
Guessing this had something to do with Celtics loss in Game 2: They were 16-41 on uncontested shots (39%). Chicago was 27-43 (63%).
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bob
MY NOTE: if you aren't hitting your open shots you aren't going to win the game because you aren't going to hit enough of your hero ball shots to make up for them.

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bob kind of eggs me on to make KO comments, I would rather not discuss him, then heckler always pulls me back with some bullshit stat that is usually wrong, then steve has to correct him. Don't forget these stats are all with KO getting protection, the easiest match up, because of his limitations....you can't have him tangle with real bigs or other 7 footers, that wouldn't be nice to see.

cowens/oldschool wrote:bob kind of eggs me on to make KO comments, I would rather not discuss him, then heckler always pulls be back with some bullshit stat that is usually wrong, then steve has to correct him. Don't forget these stats are all with KO getting protection, the easiest match up, because of his limitations....you can't have him tangle with real bigs or other 7 footers, that wouldn't be nice to see.

Cow,

Yeah, you're right, it's all my fault.  You're losing it because of me.

By the way, did you read my post that rebutted Steve's stats?

Heheheh.


Your friend,

bob


.

I ain't losing shit, except too much time wasted on KO.

I didn't necessarily mean on this post, but you know you've gotten confused on your own stats from time to time and been corrected.