Is Gordon Hayward Worth the Cap Space for the Boston Celtics?

https://hardwoodhoudini.com/2017/05/31/is-gordan-hayward-worth-the-cap-space-for-the-boston-celtics/



Is Gordon Hayward Worth the Cap Space for the Boston Celtics?



by Joshua Bateman


1 day agoFollow @JoshSportsSpeak



The Boston Celtics would love to sign Gordon Hayward to a max contract, but that does not come without risks

There is no sense in wasting your time asking whether or not Gordon Hayward would make the Boston Celtics a better team. The answer is yes, always yes and there is no hesitation. Hayward would impact every facet of what this team tires to do, and it is hard to see him having a negative impact in any area, other than some minor positional issues in the starting lineup, the kind of thing Stevens has accommodated every year.

That being said, when not only a max contract is in play, but probably the last max contract fee agent this core will be able to acquire, things can change. If the Celtics go out and fill up the rest of their cap room with Hayward, this current core will be a finished product.

Committing to Hayward means the Celtics have the main players that they believe will win them a championship. That then begs the question, are the Celtics a good enough team if Hayward is added to this roster?

Obviously there are other factors. Markelle Fultz could come in and transforms things as a rookie. Other young players could elevate their game, and make up some of that seemingly massive gap between the Celtics and true championship contention.

Unfortunately, the Celtics cannot bank on that. Championship aspirations cannot be completely changed because of what a 19 year old rookie might be able to, and whether or not the inconsistent role players finally have a better impact.

If the Celtics go out and get Hayward, it is because they believe that with the role players they have, the top end trio of Hayward, Isaiah Thomas and Al Horford is enough to win a championship. Considering how well the Celtics did this year with much less talent, it certainly is a possibility.

There is no doubting that the Celtics have to consider giving Hayward the max, because he has the kind of high end potential that can elevate the team to where they want to be. That being said, how much confidence can we have that Hayward will be that much of a difference maker.

Assuming the Celtics plan on giving Thomas the max, and everything that has come out of the Celtics camp suggests that decision is a no brainier, then they really want that final free agent acquisition to be the kind of player that can dominate on his own, and carry this team that way the top superstars in the league do.

The standard of greatness in the NBA is no longer a collection of stars. Having a set core of star caliber players are the basic start, but from there you need that one guy that can truly take over and be the best player on the court when it is needed most. Thomas has shown flashes of it, and Horford has some of that potential if he keeps up how he played in the playoffs this year. That being said, there is still uncertainty that either one of them can be that next level tier of player that teams need to be a true contender today.

With Hayward, there is that same uncertainty. The fact of the matter is that as good as Hayward is and as much better that he can make this team, they may still need something more to reach the heights of the Cavaliers and the Warriors.

Fans are clamoring for Hayward because he truly is a top tier free agent, and would change the landscape of this franchise. That being said, the Celtics will still need him to be better than any point in his short career.

If the Celtics are committing that final max contract to Hayward, then they are trusting that his prime is about to begin, and the contract he is about to sign is going to define what he is fully capable of as a player.

The good news is that is very much a possibility. Hayward is 26 years old, and has steadily been improving in his career. Hayward has all the signs of turning into an offensive Juggernaut, while not being the kind of ball stopper that could slow down the Celtics.

It would be more than foolish to doubt Stevens’ ability to find Hayward’s offensive potential. The problem, however, lies in the fact that the potential of Hayward is still undetermined. Hayward may be the best bet this offseason, but there could be some regret. If Hayward does not improve the way a lot of people believe he will, the Celtics will never reach that next level with this core.

The bottom line is that the Celtics probably do not have much of a choice. Hayward has been too good and has shown too much promise to not give that max contract. Hayward is a great piece to believe in right now and with Stevens at the helm there is a really great chance that he will become that player that can transforms the trajectory of this team.

If the opportunity is there, the Celtics will sign Hayward to a max contract. It is the kind of deal that could transform this franchise, but do not ignore the potential for this to set the team back, and close the window for this current core as they wait for their young players to develop into players that can lead a championship team.



bob
MY NOTE:  Giving Hayward a max contract, if that is what it will be and not less, will definitely transform this franchise.  The question is "for better or for worse"?  Since the conventional wisdom is saying that the Celtics' pursuit of Hayward is as much of a sure thing as taking Markelle Fultz (which is to say both make sense and probably have more than a little truth to them, but then again might not be) this is a discussion worth having.  What would signing Gordon Hayward mean for us?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/haywago01.html


Hayward's points/game have gone up every year he has been in the league, all 7, and ended last year at 21.9 ppg.  That's pretty good.  It sure wouldn't hurt to have another 20 ppg scorer on the team with IT.  He shot 47.1% last year (vs 46.3% from Jae), 39.8% from 3 (same as Jae Crowder).  Jae's a slightly better rebound, although almost a whole rebound better /36mpg.  Hayward averaged 24.1 ppg in these playoffs (an improvement over regular season and better than Jae's 13.6 ppg, a decrease from Jae's 13.9 ppg regular season).  The difference between the two is on the defensive side of the ball.  Jae is a stronger defender and can play small-ball 4.  I think Hayward is a one-position defender.

I really like Jae Crowder but I'm not sure he's a starting 3 on a Championship team.  We need another player who can really light it up, not just in short bursts like Gerald Green or inconsistently like Kelly Olynyk, but on a regular, predictable basis for 30mpg because that's their game.  Hayward's defense scares me but we need to take the pressure off of The Little Guy.  He's getting double and triple teamed.  They do that with Hayward on the floor and they will pay for it.  They do that with Jae on the floor and he launches a 3.  Did you know that Jae Crowder takes more 3s than 2s (5.5 3s/game and 4.5 2s/game)?

What worries and upsets me is that, if we sign Hayward and draft Fultz, we will have fixed our "shooter problem" but where do we get the rim protector with no money left to pay for him?


.

bob I'm not saying I'm for a Hayward signing, but we have Zizic coming over this year on the cheap and can possibly get a very good rim protector in the 18 draft as well.

cowens/oldschool wrote:bob I'm not saying I'm for a Hayward signing, but we have Zizic coming over this year on the cheap and can possibly get a very good rim protector in the 18 draft as well.

Cow,

1.  This thread is about signing Hayward.  Do you have an opinion on that?

2.  While I've probably watched more Zizic film this year than anybody else on this board (possible exception being International) I don't really see him as a rim protector so much as a bull and a pretty good floor runner.

3.  We might be able to get a good rim protector in the '18 draft, assuming Brooklyn obliges us by sucking again, but that would mean another year without a rim protector and then a few more years while that baby grows into their body and learns the NBA game.


bob


.

I prefer Paul George, but Hayward is a good 2nd choice.

Gallo is my 3rd choice.

fierce wrote:I prefer Paul George, but Hayward is a good 2nd choice.

Gallo is my 3rd choice.

fierce,

I agree. If the stories are true about PG wanting to be a Laker then that is not an option. If that's just him making the right cooing noises, like the way Kevin Love came to Boston and made the right cooing sounds but ended up in Cleveland and re-signing with them anyway, then PG is at the top of the list. Then Hayward and then Danilo Gallinari (I wrote his entire name out so I could say it out loud and sound Italian).


bob


.

No - by my standard he is not a super elite player - and obtaining one is priority number one for the Celts.

swish

swish wrote:No - by my standard he is not a super elite player - and obtaining one is priority number one for the Celts.

 swish

Swish,

Do you consider 2x All-Star, All-NBA 2nd team and a whisker away from league scoring leader Isaiah Thomas an elite player? If not, then what is your criteria?


bob


.

As much as I like Crowder I said 2 years ago that we will eventually need to upgrade SF with a more diverse and explosive player.  

DA moved in that direction when he drafted Jaylen Brown.  The combination of Crowder and Brown is pretty solid at SF and most importantly the price is right.  The question is whether or not the Celtics believe that Jaylen Brown's upside trumps the need to part with a boatload of money for Hayward.

The 2nd question is would Hayward allow us to compete with the Cavs or Golden State or the Spurs?
Once you spend the money on Hayward and resign IT you have no room to add another high price stud.

3rd since Hayward would not be an effective matchup at SF when going up against any of the high profile SF should the cap be used to address a different positional need?

Can Celtics fans wait for 2 more years?  Should they continue to add elite talent though the draft like holding on to the 2018 pick that may very well yield a quality big?  

I say keep the top picks 2017 and 2018, Let Jaylen develop, Bring on the other 2 first rounders this year.  Use cap space only to fill a positional need.  Pair down the overload at PG.  Continue on the path that has taken us to this point in a remarkable length of time.  Keep all the pluses on our side of the equation.

Dboss

bobheckler wrote:

swish wrote:No - by my standard he is not a super elite player - and obtaining one is priority number one for the Celts.

 swish

Swish,

Do you consider 2x All-Star, All-NBA 2nd team and a whisker away from league scoring leader Isaiah Thomas an elite player?  If not, then what is your criteria?


bob


.

It does not matter because Haywood is not an elite player at SF and cannot match up with other SF like LeBron, Durant, Leonard, George, The Grrek Freak, butler... He is a very good offensive player but he is not an elite player.

Dboss

fierce wrote:I prefer Paul George, but Hayward is a good 2nd choice.

Gallo is my 3rd choice.

man, I don't like any of those choices!

George might be fine ONLY if he signs an extension. which he WILL do but with the Lakers only.

Hayward, meh.........Just because he played for Stevens doesn't mean he's the second coming of Bird.

Gallinari,.,,,,please say NO.

Like dboss said, why do we need a SF?

Danny Drafted Jaylen #3 last year. You don't draft a guy #3 to be a back up , folks.

we need another big man better than Amir. maybe another one better than Kelly.

IF Danny wants to make a big splash and spend max money he can go after Blake or even Millsap. Would make lots more sense than Hayward to me.

Frankly, I cannot understand all the love for Hayward from Celtic fans at all.

kdp59 wrote:

fierce wrote:I prefer Paul George, but Hayward is a good 2nd choice.

Gallo is my 3rd choice.

man, I don't like any of those choices!

George might be fine ONLY if he signs an extension. which he WILL do but with the Lakers only.

Hayward, meh.........Just because he played for Stevens doesn't mean he's the second coming of Bird.

Gallinari,.,,,,please say NO.

Like dboss said, why do we need a SF?

Danny Drafted Jaylen #3 last year. You don't draft a guy #3 to be a back up , folks.

we need another big man better than Amir. maybe another one better than Kelly.

IF Danny wants to make a big splash and spend max money he can go after Blake or even Millsap. Would make lots more sense than Hayward to me.

Frankly, I cannot understand all the love for Hayward from Celtic fans at all.

It's not only the Celtic fans who wants Hayward, even the owner mentioned going all in for Hayward.

Reason why the big is not a MUST right now is because Zizic is coming and the 2018 Draft is loaded with bigs.

Blake Griffin is a possible target but it's not likely he will leave L.A.

Millsap is too old.
He will only make the Celts the Atlanta Hawks of a few years ago.

Reason why the Celts need another SF is the Celts need better shooters.
Brad Stevens' offense relies heavily on making open 3-pointers.
George, Hayward, and Gallo are all better than Crowder.

Jaylen Brown's time will come.
But right now the Celts need a veteran who can score on a regular basis and knock down 3-pointers consistently.

The young guys are for the future.
For the present, it's Thomas and Horford.
Ainge needs to add another proven scorer so that the Celts can compete with the Cavs and Warriors.

Basically the Celts have two teams, one for the present and one for the future.
Jaylen Brown belongs in the team for the future.

What a luxury to have.
Celts can be contenders in 2-3 years with the addition of a star player this summer.
After 5-7 years, when Jaylen Brown, the #1 pick this year, and the 2018 Nets pick will already be veterans, the Celts will once again be in the hunt for another championship.
That's more than a decade of Celtic greatness.

Hi,
I'm with Dboss, kind of.
IMHO, he, Hayward, will not bring us to the current Lebron level, let alone GSW level. This, as I've mentioned before, is the goal Danny's trying to achieve this summer or the next.
If DA signs him for max it'll close the door for any other high-fly player. So, I wonder if DA can get 2 players of such caliber with lower salaries - similar to what has been done in Miami, what KD is planning to do, etc. If DA can swing such a deal then I wouldn't mind GH in Boston.

AK

I understand it...i don't agree with it.

you need to make another deal if you sign Hayward.

signing that max ( or near max) player will cost you , Zeller, Amir, Jerebko and probably Kelly.

who's left for big men?

Horford
Mickey

Crickets?

Zizic...yabusle.......OK now you are COUNTING on one being an NAB starter and the other a key rotation player as rookie.....NO THANKS!!

we'd be a worst team than this year.

so you sign Hayward and draft Fultz

what is the deal you make to get front line help?

your moving some combo of Crowder, Bradley, smart, Jaylen and you need a starting big man and another rotaional player up front.

Maybe Danny does it and finds the deal for the other starting spot, but I sure hope he has the deal made before signing another SF like Hayward or (gasp) Gallinari.

fierce wrote:

kdp59 wrote:

fierce wrote:I prefer Paul George, but Hayward is a good 2nd choice.

Gallo is my 3rd choice.

man, I don't like any of those choices!

George might be fine ONLY if he signs an extension. which he WILL do but with the Lakers only.

Hayward, meh.........Just because he played for Stevens doesn't mean he's the second coming of Bird.

Gallinari,.,,,,please say NO.

Like dboss said, why do we need a SF?

Danny Drafted Jaylen #3 last year. You don't draft a guy #3 to be a back up , folks.

we need another big man better than Amir. maybe another one better than Kelly.

IF Danny wants to make a big splash and spend max money he can go after Blake or even Millsap. Would make lots more sense than Hayward to me.

Frankly, I cannot understand all the love for Hayward from Celtic fans at all.

It's not only the Celtic fans who wants Hayward, even the owner mentioned going all in for Hayward.

Reason why the big is not a MUST right now is because Zizic is coming and the 2018 Draft is loaded with bigs.

Blake Griffin is a possible target but it's not likely he will leave L.A.

Millsap is too old.
He will only make the Celts the Atlanta Hawks of a few years ago.

Reason why the Celts need another SF is the Celts need better shooters.
Brad Stevens' offense relies heavily on making open 3-pointers.
George, Hayward, and Gallo are all better than Crowder.

Jaylen Brown's time will come.
But right now the Celts need a veteran who can score on a regular basis and knock down 3-pointers consistently.

The young guys are for the future.
For the present, it's Thomas and Horford.
Ainge needs to add another proven scorer so that the Celts can compete with the Cavs and Warriors.

Basically the Celts have two teams, one for the present and one for the future.
Jaylen Brown belongs in the team for the future.

What a luxury to have.
Celts can be contenders in 2-3 years with the addition of a star player this summer.
After 5-7 years, when Jaylen Brown, the #1 pick this year, and the 2018 Nets pick will already be veterans, the Celts will once again be in the hunt for another championship.
That's more than a decade of Celtic greatness.

fierce,

Excellent. +1 and the ball.


bob


.

You cannot honestly answer this question regarding
Haywood unless you consider all angles.  I believe that beginning in year 3 Jaylen Brown will be our starting SF.  When you are able to draft at or near the top there is a reasonable expectation that those players will be starters.  In many instances they may start from day 1.  

The simple answer is no.  We should not use our cap space to sign Hayward.

And if we draft Fultz he could start yesterday.  That is the reason why I would be reluctant to give IT max money.  

When the Celtics drafted Marcus Smart it spelled the end of Rajon Rondo's career in Boston.    

Max money should be used to add talent where needed.  If Hayward was on the Elite list of SF that would be a reason to use cap space regardless of positional needs.

Dboss

I've been pushing the idea of Yabusele and Zizic making a contribution since last summer league. I'm even more convinced of it now. I have little concern with Yabusele earning backup minutes to Horford. It will provide him with an excellent opportunity to learn the NBA game while still making a contribution as a part of the rotation. I was hoping for Zizic to learn his way backing up Amir. Right now the starting center could be KO if he is brought back. Zizic could start but who would our 4th and 5th big be? If either one is not ready we will be in big trouble.

bobheckler wrote:

swish wrote:No - by my standard he is not a super elite player - and obtaining one is priority number one for the Celts.

 swish

Swish,

Do you consider 2x All-Star, All-NBA 2nd team and a whisker away from league scoring leader Isaiah Thomas an elite player?  If not, then what is your criteria?


bob


.

 bob

 My criteria for being listed as a SUPER ELITE player is quite high and is based on the number of times that a player is named as all-league, all-star or makes the awards list in up to the last 5 years ( including the most recently completed year). Go back 6 years if in one of the last 5 years the player played in less than 50% of the games.
  During those 5 years
* a player must be named at least 5 times, in any combination, to the above 3 categories ( do not use the all rookie vote)  5 selections in 5 years = 100%
* in addition the player must have played on a team that in it's most recent or previous year played at a .610 clip ( 50-32 record)
* As an example - going into next year Thomas has been named 3 times and Curry 10
* On average only about 5 or 6 of the 30 teams will make the cut
* During the last 38 years ( including this year ) all the nba champs had at least one SUPER ELITE players on the team. As of today the Celts have zero.

 swish

In regards to the awards list I should have noted that I only count the seasonal mvp and the defensive player of the year awards.

swish

swish wrote:

bobheckler wrote:

swish wrote:No - by my standard he is not a super elite player - and obtaining one is priority number one for the Celts.

 swish

Swish,

Do you consider 2x All-Star, All-NBA 2nd team and a whisker away from league scoring leader Isaiah Thomas an elite player?  If not, then what is your criteria?


bob


.

 bob

 My criteria for being listed as a SUPER ELITE player is quite high and is based on the number of times that a player is named as all-league, all-star or makes the awards list in up to the last 5 years ( including the most recently completed year). Go back 6 years if in one of the last 5 years the player played in less than 50% of the games.
  During those 5 years
* a player must be named at least 5 times, in any combination, to the above 3 categories ( do not use the all rookie vote)  5 selections in 5 years = 100%
* in addition the player must have played on a team that in it's most recent or previous year played at a .610 clip ( 50-32 record)
* As an example - going into next year Thomas has been named 3 times and Curry 10
* On average only about 5 or 6 of the 30 teams will make the cut
* During the last 38 years ( including this year ) all the nba champs had at least one SUPER ELITE players on the team. As of today the Celts have zero.

 swish
 

A most compelling argument.

This quite naturally brings us back to the question about identifying elite talent and deteriming the best overall way to acquire them.  

There will be multiple roster changes.  But Danny could choose to kick that cap space down the road.

He can still make a move to trade an asset or two or simply renouce a free agent or two and sign a veteran big like Serge Ibaka.  

He may not find a long term answer to the front line this off season.

DA must to a certain extent, go with his instinct.

Dboss

I think we need to chill on IT getting a max right now. We'll see after this coming season. As of NOW he should get one, or close to it. Hayward makes us better right now. He is certainly an upgrade over Crowder. Not many rim protectors on the market right now. McGee maybe (GSW can't pay everyone) or even Nene for a year, until we see what we have in Zizic. Next year's draft is supposed to have "bigs" in it, and BKN will suck again. So I say George, Hayward, Gallo and Gay in that order. Hayward would be great here, but I would have concerns about D. Also, trade AB and move Brown to the 2.

No question Hayward would make the Celts a better team next year, but because good is the enemy of great, I side with Dboss on this issue. Make room for Jaylen to blossom, spend money on a position where we have a greater need. Ironically, Hayward is very similar to Jaylen. If you compare their rookie records, they are VERY similar, with a few exceptions. Jaylen is a much better defender and a better rebounder whereas Gordon shot a good deal better from 3, and then he didn't.

Here's a per game side by side comparison from their rookie years.
Height/weight - GH 6'8"/226 (now, not as a rook), JB 6'7"/225
games - GH 72, JB 78
games started - GH 17, JB 20
MP - GB 16.9, JB 17.2
FG - GB 2.0, JB 2.5
FGA - GH 4.1, JB 5.4
FG% - GH .485, JB .454
3P% - GB .473 on 74 attempts (which dropped to .346 on 159 attempts year 2)
- JB . 341 on 135 attempts
2P% - GH .489, JB .454
eFG% - GH .544, JB .508
FT - GB 1.0, JB 1.1
FTA - GH 1.3, JB 1.6
FT% - GH .711, JB .685
TRB - GH 1.9, JB - 2.8
AST - GH 1.1, JB 0.8
STL - GH 0.4, JB 0.4
BLK - GH 0.3, JB 0.2
TOV - GH 1.0, JB 0.9
PF - GH 1.5, JB 1.8
PTS - GH 5.4, JB 6.6

My final thoughts - in two years Jaylen will be a much better player all around than Gordon Hayward at 1/4 of the price. We won't be saddled with a max contract for the three spot, and we can use that $$ elsewhere in 2019-20 when we should really be challenging for #18, then #19, then #20 ad infinitum.

kdp59 wrote:I understand it...i don't agree with it.

you need to make another deal if you sign Hayward.

signing that max ( or near max) player will cost you , Zeller, Amir, Jerebko and probably Kelly.

who's left for big men?

Horford
Mickey

Crickets?

Zizic...yabusle.......OK now you are COUNTING on one being an NAB starter and the other a key rotation  player as rookie.....NO THANKS!!

we'd be a worst team than this year.

so you sign Hayward and draft Fultz

what is the deal you make to get front line help?

your moving some  combo of Crowder, Bradley, smart, Jaylen and you need a starting big man and another rotaional player up front.

Maybe Danny does it and finds the deal for the other starting spot, but I sure hope he has the deal made before signing another SF like Hayward or (gasp) Gallinari.

The target is 2019 or 2020.

Doesn't matter if the Celts will not be better next season than this season.
It's like taking one step back to move two steps forward.

Whether we like it or not, Celts are not going to beat the Cavs or Warriors next season.

Ainge and the Celts are building for the future but they're also trying to win now.
That's why there's some uncertainty.
The conventional way is either you win now or you build for the future.
But because of all the assets accumulated by Ainge, the Celts can do both.
We just have to enjoy the ride.

No

There are teams that are experiencing buyers remorse with the contracts they have given out.  

With our two first rounders from last year along with Jackson, Nadir, our 1st rounder this year and our 3 2nd rounders Danny has an insane number of roster decisions to make.  He may take a flyer at 37 for a big or many he trades out of the 2nd round and picks up a future 1st rounder like he did last year.

DA has put in place a system that is pretty amazing.  The volume of assets he has acquired in a relatively short period of time is very impressive.  He is already setting the team up for adding talent down the road.

DA is not likely to have to start all over like he did after our last championship run.

Dboss

Here's how our salary future looks to be:

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/boston-celtics-team-salary/