thoughts........

Here are my thoughts:

Short-term we are facing Cleveland and GSW.  Longterm we are facing GSW (their core can go for years), Minny, Washington, Philly and possibly Utah.  By the time GSW begins to decline many of the powerhouses in today's NBA will be in rebuilding mode (Houston with a currently 27 year old Harden, Spurs with a 31 year old Aldridge, Clippers with a 32 year old Paul and a 28 year old Jordan, Toronto with 31 year old Lowry and 30 year old Carroll and Cleveland with a 32 year old LeBron James and 28 year old Kevin Love and 31 year old JR Smith.  Their bench is 32 year old Deron Williams, 36 year old Korver and 36 year old Richard Jefferson).

We want to compete.  You ALWAYS want to compete.  The experience our team gained this year by going deep into the playoffs is something you cannot buy, cannot draft.  Jaylen grew, as a direct straight-line result.  Terry grew, as a direct straight-line result.  Marcus grew, as a direct straight-line result.  All this represents an investment in our future success in the playoffs and you cannot win a championship if you don't make the playoffs.  Been there, done that, right?  It's great to have young colts prancing about but the war is won by veterans with the thousand yard stares and there is only way to earn that and that is with experience. Experience is not the private domain of the old. It can also be gained by the young if they are put in a position to gain that experience.

We have a good team.  A very good team?  Hmm.  Maybe not, but very definitely good.  If we can add a quality free agent this summer we will still be rising even as Cleveland struggles to replace its old players.  Washington is, and will continue to be a thorn in our sides although Gortat is 33 and Mahinmi is 30 and Jason Smith is 31.  That's their entire front court except for Morris who is 27.  So, that front court only has a couple of years left, at most, before they have to rebuild the whole front court corp.  Toronto is running into issues too.  So, we could stay up near the top of the EC for years, gaining invaluable experience for our team.

Experience which have a profound effect on our young'uns.  Unless you're Bird or Magic or MJ, one does not come out of nowhere to become an All-League player.  It's something your develop into, if you have the skills and mentality.  It takes a little time.

In 3-5 years we will be turning over our players too.  Horford will be done.  IT may be done but our young'uns will have gained 3-5 years of unbuyable experience and they will be ready (especially with Trader Danny clearing away any players he considers dead wood).  The difference between us and the others will be the quality of our up-and-coming young'uns.  And having the #1 pick in the draft deepens that, hopefully significantly.

If we gut our team for the short-term we will be swimming against a blue-and-gold current the strength of a rip tide.  Assuming KD re-signs with GSW (and the local papers out here are saying he is willing to take less money to keep the core together) there isn't anybody out there that will beat them in their prime.  We need to keep nipping at the heels of Cleveland, challenging GSW and keep building, building, building.

I am not a fan of the draft but I also recognize that left-coast juggernaut is not a typical league situation, and thinking that a tweak or two or a signing or two can level the playing field against them.  I live out here, I watch them on TV regularly, they are positively eye-popping.  They have won 207 regular season games over the past 3 years.  That's 69 wins/year on average, and two of those years were pre-Durant.  In fact, their 67 wins this year with Durant was a slight dropoff, if you can believe that!  Short of signing LeBron or Kawhi there are no players out there that we could sign that could offset Durant, and neither of those players are signing here.

Save our cap space?  For whom?

Trade our youth?  Other than for the two players above how much would that improve our odds vs GSW?

Stay the Course.  Become the heir apparent in the East and just keep hammering on the door.  We lost chances at more championships due to knee injuries to KG and Perk and bone spurs with Ray Allen.  That can happen to other teams too, and there's the opportunity we need to step up, but we have to be ready for it and we don't know when (or even if) it will come.  That's why we can't trade our youth nor worry about hamstringing ourselves with cap space short-term.  We can do both and, in my opinion, we should.


bob


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kdp59 wrote:I think we all pretty much agree here, we saw how far away from competing with Cleveland we are right now and Cleveland is no where close to GS right now.

 I would note that IF Danny feels the same way then there is no reason to sign another high contract free agent ( Hayward, Blake, etc).

the future cap space  would be better used on re-signing our own young players instead. That way we can keep the young core together.

but on another note, since I am one who enjoys playing GM in my head ( and out loud here), are there any players you WOULD trade multiple assets for this off-season?

most agree that Anthony Davis would be  game changer, but many say pass on P. George and J. Butler.

how about Rus Westbrook, John Wall?

How about the big KAT at Minny?

Porzingus or Drummond?

would you trade say Bradley and the #1 pick this year for any of them, IF they became available?

would you happily trade the rights to Fultz for Myles Turner even up?

is the cost of signing  Blake, Millsap or Gallinari worth eventually losing TWO of our young players?


Danny is at a crossroads  with this team, IMO.

signing Horford last year, for good or bad has put him at this place.

Those who think we can sign another max player and then keep the team together in the future are wrong, IMO.

will we see any "fireworks" this off-season..time will tell.

kdp,

I agree with your post entirely.  We are not close to the Cavaliers and even further from the Dubs.  

Therefore, there are only a few players I would sell our future (many of our young'uns, Fultz/whomever, 2018 Brooklyn pick) for, and I doubt any of them would be available:  Porzingis, KAT, Davis, Kawhi.  Possibly Gobert.  Embiid in a NY second if I thought his injuries were behind him, and I have no reason to believe they are.  Of those players the only two whose name have appeared in rumors are Porzingis and Davis.  I do not believe either rumors, especially the ones about Davis.

All of these players are young, transcendental players.  That's what it would take for me to feel good about it because any players who are not transcendental players, or who are on their back 9, won't be enough or be at the top of their game long enough to get over and past Cleveland and GSW.

Westbrook and IT?  In alternating games maybe, because there's only one ball.  And Westbrook is 28.  His window is closer.

Not a chance at Wall, not anymore than at any of the rest of my list.

Andre Drummond? No thank you. Too one-dimensional and a glaring weakness during Hack-a-Drummond time.


bob


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kdp59 wrote:I think I need to note in my post above I was not saying ANY of the above players were/could be available.

I was only making examples of "what if" players and should /would it make sense for Danny to go after them IF they would be made available.

I still believe the signing of Horford last year was a signal that Danny wants to win sooner  , rather than  just going with all the draft picks. But I may be dead wrong.

kdp,

Anybody who thinks they know what Danny is thinking or planning is nuts.  I love his willingness to think "outside the box" but it also unsettles me because I have no idea wtf he is going to do.

As far as "winning now", I don't think Danny thought his last deal was the clincher.  He signed Horford because he likes him but also because he thought that would position him well for Durant.  That didn't work out but Horford is a popular building block for his next one and, with Trader Danny, there is always a next one until we are in the Championship round.

Celtic players 26 years old, or younger, that are likely/probable to make the team the team next year, barring trades:

As of start of next season

1.  Terry Rozier (23)
2.  Markelle Fultz/whomever (20-ish)
3.  Jaylen Brown (21)
4.  Avery Bradley (will be 27 November 26th)
5.  Marcus Smart (23)
6.  Ante Zizic (20)
7.  Guerschon Yabusele (21)

And then there are the ones who may not be with us:

1.  Jordan Mickey (23 in July)
2.  Demetrius Jackson (23 in September)
3.  Kelly Olynyk (26)

Unless I am overrating Zizic and Yabby's ability to make the team that is a TON of youth.  Too much, really.  7 out of 15?!  That's half the squad, with 6 of those 7 23 years old and under.

So, to get back to your point of signing Al Horford was "a signal that Danny wants to win sooner".  I'm not so sure.  We are loaded, LOADED, with "win later" players.  That's why I am convinced some of the first 7 are gone.


bob


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mulcogiseng wrote:I haven't seen much sign of Trader Danny or Gambler Danny the past couple of years. Is he still around? Or has he matured now that he has performed the miracle of getting the Celtics out of CapSpaceHell? We are the one's who are addicted to instant gratification. Sure, signing Horford was Danny saying he wants to win sooner rather than later. But he's not all in, not yet. It becomes more and more difficult to upgrade very good talent. Every player on this roster can be upgraded. Even Brown, Horford, and IT. But doing so becomes more and more difficult because there are fewer and fewer players who are actually better than what we already have. And then there is the chemistry issue. This roster needs tweaking, not blow it up and start over again, or trade the core and then scramble to fill the holes around the incoming superstar.

There are certain things in the NBA that are almost written in stone but we ignore them all the time. There is no such thing as an untradeable contract. Any player desired can be had if the price is right and one is patient. And most important, it is the Boston Celtics destiny to rule the NBA.

mulcogi,

Tell that to Phil Jackson!  LOL.


bob


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KyleCleric wrote:It would be a mistake letting Fultz join the 76ers

I totally agree. Do not trade anything good that would help out a team in your own division when we are actually in the hunt.

The trade with the Nyets was different. That was the beginning of the reboot. It didn't matter if it helped them or not.