What if Jayson Tatum is for real already?

https://www.celticsblog.com/2017/10/7/16440910/what-if-jayson-tatum-is-for-real-already-boston-celtics



What if Jayson Tatum is for real already?


Rookies aren’t supposed to be impactful right away.



by Jeff Clark@celticsblog  


Oct 7, 2017, 10:16am EDT








John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports




Rookies on playoff teams are supposed to come along slowly.

Last year we saw Jaylen Brown progress along a normal learning curve for a high draft pick on a good team. He played short minutes in certain situations and was pulled quickly if he made the normal rookie mistakes. His minutes and effectiveness ramped up in the last few months and he was a positive contributor in the playoffs.

That’s about what I expected from Jayson Tatum this season. I knew that he was more polished offensively but perhaps not as much defensively. In general I have been trying to guard my heart from getting too excited about a kid who hasn’t seen his 20th birthday yet.

Two preseason games and a summer league shouldn’t be enough to convince anyone otherwise. I know this in my head, but still...

It is hard not to get at least a little excited when a young shot maker makes his shots. In the first game he was clearly a little nervous about being in his first NBA game, but he settled down quickly. In his second game he got the start and looked like he belonged.

He made his first 3 shots, finished with 9 points and 5 rebounds in just 22 minutes. He just looked comfortable out there and played with maturity. Granted, part of that success was because he was playing with the starters.

Per NBCS

Said Stevens: “I figured he would look good with those guys.”

Tatum added, “It makes it easier (starting). I’m playing with Gordon, Kyrie and Al. People not worrying about me. So when they help, I can make easy shots.”


The beautiful part about that statement is that it should be true all year. Many high draft pick rookies are shoved into the starting lineup and given the keys to the car right away. Others are buried on the bench until they can prove their worth. Tatum, on the other hand, has been billed as the most NBA-ready rookie and thus far he’s been living up to the reputation.

Regardless of who starts the games, you could easily see a situation where Tatum is contributing enough to force himself into many finishing lineups.

Again, you have to allow a young player to make rookie mistakes. Heaping oversized expectations on him at an early age is a dangerous game. But Tatum was the third pick in the draft and the Celtics have repeated often that they would have taken him 1st overall. So the expectations are going to be high regardless. It would be disappointing if he doesn’t develop into an All Star talent at some point.

The question is how quickly can he rise up that learning curve? The general consensus around the league is that the Celtics are still a piece or two short of challenging the Cavs. What if Tatum can be enough of a difference maker early on to tip the scales?

There I go again, letting my heart get carried away. Forget I wrote this. Just assume he’ll be terrible and hope to be pleasantly surprised. That’s the better plan.



bob
MY NOTE:  No Embiid, no Saric, no Fultz.  Tatum might have matched up man-to-man against Saric and the other two would have produced defensive switches and rotations. That would have revealed where Tatum is on the learning curve.  We shouldn't get too excited about how a player looks vs competition in summer league, maybe a little more excited vs pre-season competition, but the game vs Philly was against their bench.  Embiid calls their core FEDS (Fultz/Embiid/Dario/Simmons).  On Friday we, and Jayson Tatum, only saw S.


.

You can make that same case for the FEDS. Fultz, the rookie, broke his shot over the summer. Simmons has never had a shot in which to break. Embiid has just been broken over the last 3 years. Saric, if he becomes more efficient, could be a nice piece.

How do 3 players who need the ball in their hands to be effective play offense together? How does Simmons and Saric play together when they guard the same position? Can they spread the floor enough with Fultz and Simmons on the floor together?

240 minutes/regulation game x 82 games/year = 19,680 total minutes.  I'm assuming the veteran players will play the same number of games they played last year.  Your body is your body and if your body can only take so much pounding (e.g. Avery Bradley) then that's how many you can play.  This is not true for deep bench players, who don't play because, well, they're deep bench.  Starters and rotations players?  I consider that a reasonable assumption.  You play how many games your body lets you play, as many minutes/game your skill sets earn you.  Perhaps you disagree.

I expect the 3 primary stars (Horford, Hayward, Irving) to play no more than 33mpg, with a distinct possibility they are closer to 30-32 than 34.  That is for the 82 game regular season, during the playoffs the bench will shorten and they'll play 34-35mpg.

Assuming they play the same number of games as last year:  7029 total minutes.


I think Morris will play 28-30mpg.  He averaged 32.5mpg last year, but that was on an inferior team with an inferior/weaker bench (and inferior coaching).  Assuming 30mpg, that's 2370 minutes.  Still, quite a few.

7029 + 2370 = 9399

Jaylen Brown will play, IMO, 22-25mpg.  Let's say 24.  Furthermore, he's not a rookie anymore and Bradley is gone.  78 games I'll bet.  1872 minutes.

9,399 + 1872 = 11,271.  For perspective, 11271/19680 = 57.2%.  The starters get about 57.2% of the total minutes available and the bench gets the rest, 42.eight).  For comparison purposes, GSW last year the ratio of starters-to-bench was 59.7% vs 50.2% (Iggy came off the bench, but he was the #5 most used Dub.  Starting center Zaza played only 1268 minutes) and Cleveland was 58% vs 42%, so 57% for us is right there.  Sanity check.

So 8,409 minutes to divide between everybody else.  Next 5 players?  Smart, Rozier, Baynes, Tatum and Theis.

Smart - 2400 (just like last year).  30.4mpg last year.
Rozier - 1600 (up from 1263 last year).  17.1mpg last year,  21.6mpg this year.
Baynes - 1600 (up from 1163 last year). 15.5mpg last year, 21.3mpg this year.  That's why he came here.
Tatum - 1400 (JB got 1341 last year).  
Theis - 1200 (he played 592 minutes in 30 games last year.  1200 is double that).

There's 8200 minutes for 6-10.  8409 - 8200 = 209 minutes for 11-15.  Last year 11-15 totaled 1441.  There will also be maybe another 100 minutes available due to OT games, but not that many.  They might go to Yabby or it could be more injury-driven.  Where's the hole, fill the hole with the next man up at that position?  Regardless, hardly any minutes to go around for 11-15 unless there's a serious injury to 1-10.


bob


.

Isn't it a LITTLE premature to be calculating minutes to be played per game - especially by those youthful players with 0 to 2 years in the nba ?

swish

Of course he's for real.  Third pick only due to a trade. First otherwise, in a very deep draft.

Not a high chance he becomes a bust, but far too soon to be predicting minutes for anyone.

The one thing that keeps getting repeated on broadcasts, and the reason why he's involved with starting combinations Stevens is trying, is that it's entirely possible he's a starter by year-end.  They're not trying to push him into high minute looks in a shortened pre-season because he looks suspect.  He's probably going to play serious minutes, and fast.  Morris and Brown may go in as starters, but it may not take all that much to move either into another spot.

He's already quickly adapting his length, quickness and coordination to the NBA defensive game, and it doesn't look like he's going to have much problem on the offensive end. It's just not yet determined what his role(s) will be this year.

So yeah, he's real.  Why?  Was he going to be seen as a pretender already?

Don't need to be Nostradamus on this one.

swish wrote:Isn't it a LITTLE premature to be calculating minutes to be played per game - especially by those youthful players with 0 to 2 years in the nba ?

  swish

swish,

Who are you referring to?  

Smart is a 4th year player.
Rozier is a 3rd year player.
Baynes is going on 31.
Theis is 25 years old and has significant high-quality international experience.  This is his first year in the NBA, but he is well-seasoned and will probably be the best shot blocker on the team/minute.
Horford, Irving, Morris and Hayward are all veterans.

The only 2 players with 0-2 years experience I predicted minutes for were Brown and Tatum.  Both were #3 picks, so they were comparably well-regarded by Danny and Brad when they were drafted.  

My prediction for Brown's minutes was based upon Brad and Danny's statements that they consider him a major piece moving forward.  Brad's statement that he needs Jaylen to step up and be a lock down defender this year, that he expects he will be playing both SG and SF.  He played 1341 minutes last year.  1872 is only 531 more minutes and he's going to be playing multiple positions which means more opportunities to get on the floor.  Gerald Green played 538 minutes last year.  Tyler Zeller played 525 minutes last year.  Did they play a lot, or were they considered marginal players, after-thoughts?  I'm talking about adding a Gerald Green's worth of minutes onto a player that, everybody who would know about this is saying, will be a heavily relied upon player this year, especially with Bradley gone.

I predicted Tatum to play as many minutes in his rookie year as Brown played last year in his rookie year.  Why is that unreasonable or premature?  I have seen no evidence, so far, that Tatum is less ready now than Jaylen was at this time last year.  Perhaps even the opposite is true, Tatum has had a smoother start to summer league and camp than Brown did last year.  1341 minutes for a #3 pick is not a lot.  Otto Porter was the #3 pick.  He played 319 minutes his first year (I am EXTREMELY confident Tatum will play more than that!  Porter only played in 37 games that year and was very, very tentative) and 1432 minutes the next year.  Bradley Beal was another #3 pick.  He played 1745 minutes his rookie year.  James Harden, another #3, 1738 minutes and that was on a team that already was pretty decent with Durant.  Here's a link to every #3 pick.  There are a few disappointments there, to be sure, but I'll bet you'll find that most of them played more than 1341 minutes their rookie year, assuming no injuries that kept them off the floor.

http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/3rd-overall/30509/

Unless Tatum belly-flops his rookie year he will be a rotation player of 15-20 minutes per game or so. 17.X would put him dead middle of that spread, just like Brown was.

I didn't predict Nader's or Yabby's or Semi's minutes, nor Larkin's even though he has 3, not 0-2, years of NBA experience.  


bob


.

bobheckler wrote: 240 minutes/regulation game x 82 games/year = 19,680 total minutes.  I'm assuming the veteran players will play the same number of games they played last year.  Your body is your body and if your body can only take so much pounding (e.g. Avery Bradley) then that's how many you can play.  This is not true for deep bench players, who don't play because, well, they're deep bench.  Starters and rotations players?  I consider that a reasonable assumption.  You play how many games your body lets you play, as many minutes/game your skill sets earn you.  Perhaps you disagree.

I expect the 3 primary stars (Horford, Hayward, Irving) to play no more than 33mpg, with a distinct possibility they are closer to 30-32 than 34.  That is for the 82 game regular season, during the playoffs the bench will shorten and they'll play 34-35mpg.

Assuming they play the same number of games as last year:  7029 total minutes.


I think Morris will play 28-30mpg.  He averaged 32.5mpg last year, but that was on an inferior team with an inferior/weaker bench (and inferior coaching).  Assuming 30mpg, that's 2370 minutes.  Still, quite a few.

7029 + 2370 = 9399

Jaylen Brown will play, IMO, 22-25mpg.  Let's say 24.  Furthermore, he's not a rookie anymore and Bradley is gone.  78 games I'll bet.  1872 minutes.

9,399 + 1872 = 11,271.  For perspective, 11271/19680 = 57.2%.  The starters get about 57.2% of the total minutes available and the bench gets the rest, 42.eight).  For comparison purposes, GSW last year the ratio of starters-to-bench was 59.7% vs 50.2% (Iggy came off the bench, but he was the #5 most used Dub.  Starting center Zaza played only 1268 minutes) and Cleveland was 58% vs 42%, so 57% for us is right there.  Sanity check.

So 8,409 minutes to divide between everybody else.  Next 5 players?  Smart, Rozier, Baynes, Tatum and Theis.

Smart - 2400 (just like last year).  30.4mpg last year.
Rozier - 1600 (up from 1263 last year).  17.1mpg last year,  21.6mpg this year.
Baynes - 1600 (up from 1163 last year). 15.5mpg last year, 21.3mpg this year.  That's why he came here.
Tatum - 1400 (JB got 1341 last year).  
Theis - 1200 (he played 592 minutes in 30 games last year.  1200 is double that).

There's 8200 minutes for 6-10.  8409 - 8200 = 209 minutes for 11-15.  Last year 11-15 totaled 1441.  There will also be maybe another 100 minutes available due to OT games, but not that many.  They might go to Yabby or it could be more injury-driven.  Where's the hole, fill the hole with the next man up at that position?  Regardless, hardly any minutes to go around for 11-15 unless there's a serious injury to 1-10.


bob


.

Bob I'd be shocked if Rozier gets more minutes than Tatum.

bobheckler wrote:

swish wrote:Isn't it a LITTLE premature to be calculating minutes to be played per game - especially by those youthful players with 0 to 2 years in the nba ?

  swish

swish,

Who are you referring to?  

Smart is a 4th year player.
Rozier is a 3rd year player.
Baynes is going on 31.
Theis is 25 years old and has significant high-quality international experience.  This is his first year in the NBA, but he is well-seasoned and will probably be the best shot blocker on the team/minute.
Horford, Irving, Morris and Hayward are all veterans.

The only 2 players with 0-2 years experience I predicted minutes for were Brown and Tatum.  Both were #3 picks, so they were comparably well-regarded by Danny and Brad when they were drafted.  

My prediction for Brown's minutes was based upon Brad and Danny's statements that they consider him a major piece moving forward.  Brad's statement that he needs Jaylen to step up and be a lock down defender this year, that he expects he will be playing both SG and SF.  He played 1341 minutes last year.  1872 is only 531 more minutes and he's going to be playing multiple positions which means more opportunities to get on the floor.  Gerald Green played 538 minutes last year.  Tyler Zeller played 525 minutes last year.  Did they play a lot, or were they considered marginal players, after-thoughts?  I'm talking about adding a Gerald Green's worth of minutes onto a player that, everybody who would know about this is saying, will be a heavily relied upon player this year, especially with Bradley gone.

I predicted Tatum to play as many minutes in his rookie year as Brown played last year in his rookie year.  Why is that unreasonable or premature?  I have seen no evidence, so far, that Tatum is less ready now than Jaylen was at this time last year.  Perhaps even the opposite is true, Tatum has had a smoother start to summer league and camp than Brown did last year.  1341 minutes for a #3 pick is not a lot.  Otto Porter was the #3 pick.  He played 319 minutes his first year (I am EXTREMELY confident Tatum will play more than that!  Porter only played in 37 games that year and was very, very tentative) and 1432 minutes the next year.  Bradley Beal was another #3 pick.  He played 1745 minutes his rookie year.  James Harden, another #3, 1738 minutes and that was on a team that already was pretty decent with Durant.  Here's a link to every #3 pick.  There are a few disappointments there, to be sure, but I'll bet you'll find that most of them played more than 1341 minutes their rookie year, assuming no injuries that kept them off the floor.

http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/3rd-overall/30509/

Unless Tatum belly-flops his rookie year he will be a rotation player of 15-20 minutes per game or so.  17.X would put him dead middle of that spread, just like Brown was.

I didn't predict Nader's or Yabby's or Semi's minutes, nor Larkin's even though he has 3, not 0-2, years of NBA experience.  


bob


.

bob

Off the bench players in general - more specifically, the youthful players with less than 3 years in the nba. But of greater concern to me would be just how well I might expect them to perform. - and that's the part of the puzzle that my crystal ball fails me all to often.

swish

cowens/oldschool wrote:

bobheckler wrote: 240 minutes/regulation game x 82 games/year = 19,680 total minutes.  I'm assuming the veteran players will play the same number of games they played last year.  Your body is your body and if your body can only take so much pounding (e.g. Avery Bradley) then that's how many you can play.  This is not true for deep bench players, who don't play because, well, they're deep bench.  Starters and rotations players?  I consider that a reasonable assumption.  You play how many games your body lets you play, as many minutes/game your skill sets earn you.  Perhaps you disagree.

I expect the 3 primary stars (Horford, Hayward, Irving) to play no more than 33mpg, with a distinct possibility they are closer to 30-32 than 34.  That is for the 82 game regular season, during the playoffs the bench will shorten and they'll play 34-35mpg.

Assuming they play the same number of games as last year:  7029 total minutes.


I think Morris will play 28-30mpg.  He averaged 32.5mpg last year, but that was on an inferior team with an inferior/weaker bench (and inferior coaching).  Assuming 30mpg, that's 2370 minutes.  Still, quite a few.

7029 + 2370 = 9399

Jaylen Brown will play, IMO, 22-25mpg.  Let's say 24.  Furthermore, he's not a rookie anymore and Bradley is gone.  78 games I'll bet.  1872 minutes.

9,399 + 1872 = 11,271.  For perspective, 11271/19680 = 57.2%.  The starters get about 57.2% of the total minutes available and the bench gets the rest, 42.eight).  For comparison purposes, GSW last year the ratio of starters-to-bench was 59.7% vs 50.2% (Iggy came off the bench, but he was the #5 most used Dub.  Starting center Zaza played only 1268 minutes) and Cleveland was 58% vs 42%, so 57% for us is right there.  Sanity check.

So 8,409 minutes to divide between everybody else.  Next 5 players?  Smart, Rozier, Baynes, Tatum and Theis.

Smart - 2400 (just like last year).  30.4mpg last year.
Rozier - 1600 (up from 1263 last year).  17.1mpg last year,  21.6mpg this year.
Baynes - 1600 (up from 1163 last year). 15.5mpg last year, 21.3mpg this year.  That's why he came here.
Tatum - 1400 (JB got 1341 last year).  
Theis - 1200 (he played 592 minutes in 30 games last year.  1200 is double that).

There's 8200 minutes for 6-10.  8409 - 8200 = 209 minutes for 11-15.  Last year 11-15 totaled 1441.  There will also be maybe another 100 minutes available due to OT games, but not that many.  They might go to Yabby or it could be more injury-driven.  Where's the hole, fill the hole with the next man up at that position?  Regardless, hardly any minutes to go around for 11-15 unless there's a serious injury to 1-10.


bob


.

Bob I'd be shocked if Rozier gets more minutes than Tatum.

Cow,

1. Rozier is experienced, Tatum is not. Rozier knows Brad's playbook cold.

2. Someone will have to guard the John Walls and Damien Lillards of the league now that Bradley is gone. Brown will struggle with their speed. Smart is faster but not that fast. In that role he has no competition (maybe Larkin...MAYBE).

3. We have a lot of 3s and 4s for Tatum to compete against. Brown, Hayward, Morris, Theis just to name the frontrunners to play 3/4. Horford will also be playing big 4 at times, with Baynes at center, which squeezes Tatum's opportunities.

Anybody else have a thought on this? Forget about specific minutes, who do you think will get more total minutes, Rozier or Tatum?


bob


.

Bob Rozier has never shown me he has the vision of a point guard, Smart to me is the BU point, we're going bigger this year with Jaylen getting minutes at the 2. Smart can play point with Kyrie or Jaylen or Hayward if we decide to put him there. Rozier may be improved, I hope so, he can defend the point, offensively I've never seen him run it well enough

I have a feeling Tatum may be all he should be, a very real possibility, he might get as many or more minutes than Jaylen, who will get more play this season too than last year. Rozier is an athlete, he needs a lot more passing skills, ball handling and a better floater to get more minutes IMHO.

....one last thing, as good as Roziers defense is, it is nowhere near AB's or a young TA, or even Smarts, let's call a spade a spade.

cowens/oldschool wrote:....one last thing, as good as Roziers defense is, it is nowhere near AB's or a young TA, or even Smarts, let's call a spade a spade.

Rozier's defense may not be as good as AB's but who else will guard rockets like Wall, Lillard, Walker, Payton, IT (when he's back) etal?  Sometimes it isn't about who the best player is it's who is the best player for this matchup?  Irving isn't a much better defender than IT and Smart can't stay in front of them either. How do we stop those guys without Rozier?

We have a lot of 3/4s, we are really deep there. At defensive point guard? Not so deep, not unless they have a big point guard like Fultz or MCW or Ball or Dunn or such. Then Smart is the man.


bob

.

Scott Souza @Scott_Souza
about 5 minutes ago
#Celtics Brad Stevens: Don't want to say I'm surprised, but Jayson Tatum's D is beyond his years.
reply retweet like



bob


.

bobheckler wrote:Scott Souza @Scott_Souza
about 5 minutes ago
#Celtics Brad Stevens: Don't want to say I'm surprised, but Jayson Tatum's D is beyond his years.
reply retweet like



bob


.

another reason he'll get more minutes than Rozier

Hard to say this early, but Rozier looks light years ahead of last year and much more aggressive and assertive than Tatum.

If the starting line up is Horford, Morris, Hayward, Brown (or Smart) and Irving - I think Rozier will be the 7th man

Smart and Rozier are a dangerous combination off the bench. They have pretty good chemistry together and we saw it at work vs. Philly.

I like the idea of starting Jaylen. He's going to need the minutes, and the C's need him to step up.


KJ

Jaylens shooting will come and go, it should improve, but his handle is better, love the way he attacks from far off the dribble going end to end.

Rozier is an NBA player. If he gets the minutes, he will produce. If he was our starting PG, I would be worried, but as a BU point guard, I think he can do quite well. As Bob said, he could really carve out time for himself if he can partially replace AB's defense on quicker guards.

Stevens pretty much settled that one pre-game, as reported by Van Gundy.

Tatum may start Tuesday.

That may or may not last depending on Morris' progress and how they choose to use Morris.  Regardless, it's hard to picture Tatum as anything less than regular rotation and 7th man to hit the floor.

I think that qualifies as for real.

Tatum might start early in the season.
But I think Morris will eventually end up starting after a few weeks.

New, as of 11/6/17.






bob



.