Age and efficeincy in NBA players

This article about age and efficiency in NBA players was referenced in the previous articles I posted about Kyrie's potential. Thought it might be relevant since IT's age seems to have played a big role in how the trade was percieved. Sorry I couldn't paste the whole article - it would have had to be done in pieces, and I am just too lazy. The English is a little off, but the analysis is reasonable. Note that according to the data, a PG's peak is between 28 and 32.

here is the link:

http://www.nbaminer.com/golden-ages-of-basketball-players/

Enjoy.

Interesting article.

I wonder what Horford's numbers would show.


KJ

k_j_88 wrote:Interesting article.

I wonder what Horford's numbers would show.


KJ

Al is a cerebral player - I suspect he will maintain quite well.

Shamrock1000 wrote:This article about age and efficiency in NBA players was referenced in the previous articles I posted about Kyrie's potential. Thought it might be relevant since IT's age seems to have played a big role in how the trade was percieved. Sorry I couldn't paste the whole article - it would have had to be done in pieces, and I am just too lazy. The English is a little off, but the analysis is reasonable. Note that according to the data, a PG's peak is between 28 and  32.

here is the link:

http://www.nbaminer.com/golden-ages-of-basketball-players/

Enjoy.

Shamrock,

Thanks.

There is one variable that I consider to be very relevant that is not addressed in this article and that is "years of experience".  The top players coming into the NBA now are coming in as 19-20 year olds.

Here's an analysis of first round picks for 2007 draft that shows that 14 of the top 30 players drafted were 20 years old or younger, and only 9 of them were lottery picks (1-14).

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/search?showPicks=&year_2005=&pick_range_min=1&pick_range_max=30&age_range_min=17&age_range_max=20&height_range_min=69&height_range_max=91&weight_range_min=150&weight_range_max=375&yos_range_min=0&yos_range_max=21&all_star_range_min=0&all_star_range_max=15&all_nba_range_min=0&all_nba_range_max=15&all_defense_range_min=0&all_defense_range_max=14


Now, here's the same analysis except for 2017:

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/search?showPicks=&year_2017=&pick_range_min=1&pick_range_max=30&age_range_min=17&age_range_max=20&height_range_min=69&height_range_max=91&weight_range_min=150&weight_range_max=375&yos_range_min=0&yos_range_max=21&all_star_range_min=0&all_star_range_max=15&all_nba_range_min=0&all_nba_range_max=15&all_defense_range_min=0&all_defense_range_max=14


Of the top 30 players drafted in 2017, 23 were 20 years old or younger including all 14 lottery picks.  NBA players are starting younger than they were just 10 years ago.  Without doing another check I'd be willing to bet that if we went back 17 years like he does we'll find even fewer 18-20 year olds, especially lottery picks.

If you start at 21, then 28 is 7 years experience.  If you start at 19, then it's 9 years experience.  The game slows down a lot after the first 3-4 years, maybe even after the first 2-3, so 2 years more experience is a big deal when determining when you achieve your peak.


bob


.

BobH,

Interesting points. We can also take into account the fact that 11 years ago was when they stopped allowing high schoolers to jump right into the league. But I don't know specifically how many high schoolers actually were making that jump when it was still allowed.


KJ

bobheckler wrote:

Shamrock1000 wrote:This article about age and efficiency in NBA players was referenced in the previous articles I posted about Kyrie's potential. Thought it might be relevant since IT's age seems to have played a big role in how the trade was percieved. Sorry I couldn't paste the whole article - it would have had to be done in pieces, and I am just too lazy. The English is a little off, but the analysis is reasonable. Note that according to the data, a PG's peak is between 28 and  32.

here is the link:

http://www.nbaminer.com/golden-ages-of-basketball-players/

Enjoy.

Shamrock,

Thanks.

There is one variable that I consider to be very relevant that is not addressed in this article and that is "years of experience".  The top players coming into the NBA now are coming in as 19-20 year olds.

Here's an analysis of first round picks for 2007 draft that shows that 14 of the top 30 players drafted were 20 years old or younger, and only 9 of them were lottery picks (1-14).

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/search?showPicks=&year_2005=&pick_range_min=1&pick_range_max=30&age_range_min=17&age_range_max=20&height_range_min=69&height_range_max=91&weight_range_min=150&weight_range_max=375&yos_range_min=0&yos_range_max=21&all_star_range_min=0&all_star_range_max=15&all_nba_range_min=0&all_nba_range_max=15&all_defense_range_min=0&all_defense_range_max=14


Now, here's the same analysis except for 2017:

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/search?showPicks=&year_2017=&pick_range_min=1&pick_range_max=30&age_range_min=17&age_range_max=20&height_range_min=69&height_range_max=91&weight_range_min=150&weight_range_max=375&yos_range_min=0&yos_range_max=21&all_star_range_min=0&all_star_range_max=15&all_nba_range_min=0&all_nba_range_max=15&all_defense_range_min=0&all_defense_range_max=14


Of the top 30 players drafted in 2017, 23 were 20 years old or younger including all 14 lottery picks.  NBA players are starting younger than they were just 10 years ago.  Without doing another check I'd be willing to bet that if we went back 17 years like he does we'll find even fewer 18-20 year olds, especially lottery picks.

If you start at 21, then 28 is 7 years experience.  If you start at 19, then it's 9 years experience.  The game slows down a lot after the first 3-4 years, maybe even after the first 2-3, so 2 years more experience is a big deal when determining when you achieve your peak.


bob


.

Yes, excellent point.