Years vs Mileage

Jonathan Wasserman‏Verified account
@NBADraftWass
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Just noticed Monta Ellis wasn't on a roster. Pretty good run he had. Second-round pick, averaged 21 points from 2007-2015.
6:04 AM - 17 Oct 2017 from Manhattan, NY


I don't want him on the Celtics but I do want to make a point and start a discussion using him as a foil.  Ellis is turning 32 years old on October 26th, so he's not that old, he came out of High School into the NBA.  They say that Amir Johnson was the last high schooler to go straight to the NBA but he and Ellis were in the same draft class, 2005.  Ellis was picked 40th and Amir was 56th, which is why Amir is said to be the last, but they were the same year.  My point is, just like with cars, "it's not the years that matter, it's the mileage".  Ellis and Amir have a lot of miles on them and that is why Ellis may be done and Amir is obviously starting to lose it too.  Remember Grant Hill?  Half a dozen years of solid minutes, played a total of 4439 minutes from 28-33 (5 seasons) and then came back and played well for years past his physical prime.  He played until he was 40 and still got 1378 minutes when he was 39 and 2409 minutes when he was 38.  For perspective, Al Horford played 2193 minutes last year and IT played 2569, so 2409 is a lot of minutes at any age.

If it isn't the years, it's the mileage, then are the NBA fans actually getting cheated with one-and-doners?  They are young, they are athletic but they are one year out of high school.  Older draftees (e.g. Malcolm Brogdon) are more NBA ready from day 1 and, if it's all about mileage, they will be able to play further into their 30s than the early starters and their careers will be better because they are readier from day 1.

Let's make this a discussion with a poll about Years vs Mileage.  I know it isn't just one thing, I know it's more complex than this, but Havlicek and others from earlier seasons played well into their 30s, but they didn't get drafted until after 4 years of college, with the NCAA season only being about half as many games as the NBA. Their soft tissue had a chance to catch up with the explosive growth of their skeletons. Which factor, in your opinion, weighs more heavily?


bob


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Mileage.

Just look at KG and Tim Duncan.

KG was already irrelevant in 2014.

Duncan was still very good and helped the Spurs win a championship in 2014.

Both players born in 1976.

KG joined the NBA in 1995.

Duncan became an NBA player in 1997.

Have to add a third element.   Sustainability.

Think Vince Carter or Richard Jefferson.  Proof that both age and mileage can also be a nonfactor.

Some cars are built to last.

It's a complicated question. The car analogy is slightly flawed since cars are not self-repairing. Human bodies are remarkable at self-repair. What if the "old" car has all new parts? For two players with the same age, but with different "mileage", the quallity of the muscle tissue should be similar (Assuming similar levels of athleticism). If anything, the high mileage person's muscles may be better tuned for high performance simply due to more repetitions. That being said, the body is not perfect at self-repair, particularly when it comes to things like joints, and backs, and feet, which definitely end careers. If the mileage causes that type of structural damage, then it can indeed be important. But the things that dictate elite athleticism, e.g. fast-twitch muscle content/composition, balance/body control, will not decline simply due to mileage, but will absolutely, without an ounce of doubt, decline with age (TB12 is the one possible exception...)

Mileage will play a factor. But how players take care of themselves, as well as their style of play, matters. Duncan and Dirk have playing styles that suited long careers. Same with Kobe. In essence, they played more of a skill game than an athletic game.

Is Ellis no longer playing because of his body or he just isn't getting a shot at this point?

Also, I wonder how long Lebron will be a physically dominating presence. His game has always been predicated more on his physicality. Same with Westbrook.

D Rose and Wade have had durability issues, and if you look at how they play it's no wonder. Slashing into the lane and drawing contact does wear and tear on your knees, no matter how great of an athlete you are. Moral of the story: probably a good idea to develop a jumpshot and a mid-range game.


KJ