Game 3 road to Victory

Now that we have all had a chance to digest what's taken place during the first two games of the series, I'm sitting here this morning in great anticipation!

The Cavs may have won game # 1 but it is clear that Boston did outplay them in both games but just could not find the right flow to close it out.

Game three is now before us. Both teams know who can do what. Both teams have experienced rotation issues with their bench and both teams are more than capable of winning a game on the road.

The big unknown going into the game will be Lebron James. Will the elbow issue limit and reduce his effectiveness? Will it impact his ability to knock down outside shots? Will he drive to his left where the elbow presents itself like a cupie doll waiting to get wacked repeatedly? Like him or not we all should agree that James is an amazing competitor that is in search of greatness. And we should expect to see a very high level of ENERGY from him and the rest of the Cavaliers. And it will be the nuts and bolts issues in this game that determine the outcome. The road to victory is not a straight line. It will be marked with bumps and brushes throughout.

The road

The Celtics have played well in both games from the start. This is very important simply because it takes more energy to close a scoring deficiency than it does to stay ahead in the game.

Scoring opportunities must come from defensive stops (defending the pick and roll and pick and pop, closing out the middle, rotating to close out the perimeter and securing the missed shot, lose ball and all the other 50/50 plays.)

The cavs are suppose to be the team that likes to run but Boston has to use fast break opportunities to set the cavs back on their heals. We need Rondo to play a controlled agressive game where he pushes the ball hard and finds holes in their defense. He has been able to do that all series and while I have heard some speculation, I doubt they will put lebron on him. But if they are stupid enough to try that scheme look for Rondo to feed the big three for easy looks and in the process reduce Lebrons ability as a help defender.

KG has been the go to guy all sereis. There is no reason to go away from him at this point because the cavs do not have anyone who can check him one on one. Look form the Cavs to mix it up a bit with some double teams on KG where they will leave Rondo open in hopes that he cannot knock down a jumper. Rondo already knows this and with KG being an excellent passer out of the post, i expect Rajon to make cuts to the hoop for some layup opportunities.

Paul Pierce has not played particularly well on the offensive end during the first 2 games either as a shooter or facilitator. he is averaging a surprisingly low 13.5 PPG while shooting only .333 from the field and 3-11 from behind the arc. His rebounding has been poor 3 board per game and his assists total 3.5 per game are not much better than his 3.0 turnovers. This is the most encouraging aspect of the sereis. basically the Celtics are where they are despite the lack of production from Paul Pierce. I think Pierce is due for a strong game. But he must not lose his composure, he must let the offense come to him and trust in his PG to make the right play. He needs to hit the glass and continue to stay in front of Lebron.

Rasheed Wallace finally played a good game but I am not sure we should expect back to back performances. I think going to him in the post is the best way to get him going.

Mo Williams has to shoot well and play well for the cavs to win. Moe is so streaky you never know what he will do. When he misses shots he is very ineffective for the team. Rajon must control him. Moe has been used and abused by Rondo thus far and there is no reason to suspect anything will change. Think about it, everyone is talking about how well rondo is playing and that means that moe is not playing well. He put the cavs back in the first game during an unstoppable 3rd qtr stretch but they need more from him.

Ray Allen is a barometer. When he is hot the Celtics are pretty much unbeatable because Ray can demoralize a team when he starts knocking down shots or makes nice drives to the hoop. Anthony Parker has done little during the sereis. A lineup change putting Delonte in the game may happen by halftime if Ray is out dueling Parker again.

The mop-head factor has pretty much been neutralized. His role is to be a pain in the ass bringing energy, fouling everybody and in general presenting himself as a nuisance. I want to see baby come in and match him stride for stride. Keep him off the glass by keeping a body on him.

Controlling tempo...Doc did a great job using his timeouts when the team was just not getting it.

In sum..The screws are beginning to tighten for the cavs. The Celtics know exactly what they need to do to beat them. They have already figured out what to do. They already have a contingency plan in place if lebron 'gets his'. The cavs have not figured it out yet so you have to expect adjustment will be made.

The Cavs were flying high going into this sereis. Every ESPN analayst was picking them to beat the Celtics down. It seems no one knew but us fans that the Celtics still had something left to give. A win tonight by the Celtics puts the Cavs in a must (lose) situation. The script will already have been written.

dboss

Dboss

nice sumation

I will take a small issue with this comment.
Both teams know who can do what.

That to me IS the issue with Cleveland they have no idea what to expect from virtually anyone right now, with King James the top of the list.

And rather than repeat

I'll focus on just a couple things.

We need a good game from Sheed.
Keep them off the offensive boards.
Take it to the hole whenever possible.
Sheed and KG need to post up at least 3/4 of the time.

Management needs to hand out green and white towels to EVERYONE!

beat

Dboss,

Nice work. An excellent analysis.

From my point of view, the single most pivotal factor may be adjustments. So far, the Cavs have had to make most of the adjustments, and I expect that to continue as they begin Game 3. I won't try to predict what any new adjustments might be, and that could depend largely on their health.

Adjustments are funny. They can work big-time, or they can backfire because they often represent a deviation from a team's most natural approach. But, more often than not, the team forced into adjustments finds itself at a disadvantage. I hope that holds true in this game, and I hope it's the Cavs who wind up at a disadvantage.

Should be a great game. Go Celtics!

Sam

The key to me is KG. If he is healthy and feeling good, he will continue to kill Jamison down low and that will open up shots for Pierce, Ray Allen, and driving lanes for Rondo. If KG is not himself, it could bog down the middle of the floor and make it harder for the Celtics to keep the ball moving and get into the teeth of the Cleveland defense.

Sheed, TA and Baby have to come in and play with energy and give the team a spark off the bench - and Perk needs to continue to control the boards and take no crap from Sideshow Bob and the other Cleveland big men.

Oh, and we need to get a FAIR SHAKE from the refs. The officiating in game two was disturbing. I am not holding out much hope here as whatever King James wants, King James gets.

I think the Celtics will split these two - but still win the series in the end. But would make it easier for everyone if they just went out and won them both this weekend and ripped the spirit out of the Cavs. We shall see.

Excellent summation dboss, not sure if I can add much of value to it, maybe just a slightly different slant.

The most important things, IMO, are:

1. Perimeter defense against LBJ. Keep him outside. If he's hitting his outside shots there's nothing you can do about it, but LBJ making 20' jumpers is still vastly preferred to LBJ making layups or forcing defenses to rotate on his penetration and then he hits the outside man which gets Mo and Delonte etal into their shooting rhythms. If LBJ beats us, we want ONLY him to beat us. Teams beat players more times than not, so we want to take everybody else out of their game and force the guy with the bad elbow to beat us solo.

2. Rebound, rebound, rebound. If you do that you minimize the Varajao factor and control the tempo.

3. Force Mike Brown to come up with a solution to the KG/Jamison mismatch, but be ready with an option off the lob since you know they've been working on one for the past 3 days. He cannot allow KG to continue to abuse Jamison like that. I expect LBJ to come swooping in for blocks on every entry pass. KG should be ready to either dunk the ball quickly and authoritatively or pass the ball to Pierce out at the perimeter. Make LBJ run for nothing.

4. Run, Perk, Run. I know your knee is hurting, but you still can outrun either Shaq or Z on one leg.

5. Force Deltonte West to go right. He's VERY left-handed. If he starts to go right, it's because he's trying to get you to go to your left (putting you on his right side) on the fake so he can step back shoot with his left hand. Don't believe him. Play him to go left and stay on his left hand. His efficiency goes way down when he goes right.

6. Try to get Ray into the game early. Pierce will blow hot-and-cold. So does KG, but when Ray is in rhythm he stays in rhythm. A layup or short jumper to break the ice will produce nice results from Ray the whole game long (if Rondo listens to what Doc tells him and gets more fga for Ray).

7. Sheed inside. He's been effective when inside and, when he's hitting inside, his outside shot improves too. It's when he starts outside that he has bad games. Two good games in a row from Sheed will have a significant impact on this game's outcome, perhaps more than most other Celtic players.

8. Give Tony more minutes, Doc. He's playing well, he's very much of a "confidence" player who needs minutes to feel comfortable and he's a completely different look for LBJ from Pierce. Tony, with his speed, has done a very credible job of staying between LBJ and the basket, and we need that. I'd like to see how Quis plays against LBJ, since that's why we got him in the first place, but I don't think we'll see that this game. Doc wants to put the hammer down on these guys and he's going to go with the iron, especially after 4 days rest.

9. Full-court, on-the-ball defense by LBJ's man if LBJ gets the ball in the backcourt. If you can't make him give the ball up, at least don't let him just make a beeline for our basket at a gallop. Once he has a head of steam up, you cannot stop him. Or, at least, the refs won't let you stop him. It won't matter if all your players are back on defense if he's allowed to come flying downcourt with the ball. Make him bring the ball up at a slower pace or give it up. Make him work. It'll take some of the starch out of him too.

10. Put a body on Varajao. Nothing aggravates back spasms like having to stop someone from pushing your torso back.

All season, we've been concerned about how well we match up against Cleveland. Well, now we know. We can win this. It begins tonight (or this afternoon for some of us).

bob

.

Hi,
I'd say Doc, do whatever you're doing the first 2 games. It worked fine. Just don't let those 4th quarter collapses to happen. Also, remember to give ample rest to the starters whenever you have a chance, e.g. end of 3rd, so they're able to sustain the Cavs rush in the middle of the 4th.
I wonder if Doc will 'sprinkle' more of Nate to give RR additional rest and spread the floor for Sheed or whoever on the floor at the time to post?
I agree with those that said that this game is crucial. One of the reasons is if the Cavs loose it, MB will go into panic mode which means mistakes = advantage Celtics.
Messrs. Celtics, please win!
Your fan,
AK

Good stuff here. I agree with nearly everything.

Sinus, I have to disagree about seeing more Nate. Unless this game is a blowout, I don't want Rondo coming out of the game for more than a few minutes. The way the playoffs are set up, each timeout is about 3 minutes long, plenty of time to catch your breath and drink some fluids. Rondo is only 24 and in great physical shape. In game 2, they interviewed Rondo right after the first half ended (the same first half that he played the entire 24 minutes) and the kid was barely even sweating. When you factor in the C's strategy to intentionally foul in certain situations which gives guys even more rest and then add the 4 days rest since the last game, and these guys, particularly the young ones, should be primed to play heavy minutes. Plus it's the playoffs...this is where you put it all on the line and worry about resting in July!

I'm as nervous as a long tailed cat inna room fulla rockin chairs