Will the Lakers’ draft pick end Marcus Smart’s time with the Boston Celtics?

This was just put on Boston.com, writer, John Karalis. Never heard of him, but supposedly he is a a "writer" (blogger??) for Boston.com, CelticsBlog,

Poor Marcus, how do you keep your head clear and continue to play the great
defense he has been playing while stories like this are all around you?

RosalieTCeltics wrote:This was just put on Boston.com, writer, John Karalis. Never heard of him, but supposedly he is a a "writer" (blogger??) for Boston.com, CelticsBlog,

Poor Marcus, how do you keep your head clear and continue to play the great
defense he has been playing while stories like this are all around you?

Rosalie, I think it depends on if the Celtics use that pick to draft a point guard (tre Young, i.e.) However,  With or without the pick Boston cannot afford to pay Marcus a salary in the $12-$15 million range.  If KO got $12 from the heat I think some team will offer Smart something closer to $15 million.  There are a few teams that desperately need a defensive minded PG and Smart is a difference maker.  

The writer seems to suggest that Smart's future rests on draft position, a lower market value for Smart and trading an asset like Morris.  The problem with this path is that the draft pick is not assured and Smart value is not likely to be lower and trading Morris would still require that you bring back another player along with his salary.

Marcus knows that his tenure with the Celtics may be coming to an end.  Danny did not extend him so Marcus knows that the Celtics were no ready to make a long term commitment to him.  It is in his best interest to play well because at the end of the season he becomes an UFA.  

dboss

Dboss,

Smart will be a restricted free agent this summer.

Hi,
I don't think that LAL's pick will affect Smart's situation.
Once again, the major factor will be Danny's evaluation of Smart as a part of contending team. If he decides that Smart is important the additional $6-7M won't be the deal-breaker, IMO.
Obviously, all that will be decided in the summer.

AK

I have never heard of the guy who wrote this article. There are so many sports "bloggers" out there that have begun to believe they are the next coming of Dan Shaunessy (sp?) that it is hard to take almost anyone too seriously. I see so much about the Laker pick, the Memphis pick, and our two young bucks, it kind of makes me laugh. So, I will take this one with a grain of salt and keep clapping at the end of the game when the Celtics win.

gyso wrote:Dboss,

Smart will be a restricted free agent this summer.

I knew that.  Not sure who I used UFA

letting the market set Smarts next deal is a good move.

since he is one of out top 5 players in minutes played, I think he will be back. and yes on a market deal ( $12-15M)

we are not bringing in any new big dollar FA's ( at least until Horford's deal is done), so re-signing our key players on one of the top 3-4 teams in the NBA is mandatory.

kdp59 wrote:letting the market set Smarts next deal is a good move.

since he is one of out top 5 players in minutes played, I think he will be back. and yes on a market deal ( $12-15M)

we are not bringing in any new big dollar FA's ( at least until Horford's deal is done), so re-signing our key players on one of the top 3-4 teams in the NBA is mandatory.

^^This

kdp59 wrote:letting the market set Smarts next deal is a good move.

since he is one of out top 5 players in minutes played, I think he will be back. and yes on a market deal ( $12-15M)

we are not bringing in any new big dollar FA's ( at least until Horford's deal is done), so re-signing our key players on one of the top 3-4 teams in the NBA is mandatory.

KDP59

Here is a question. Marcus has a $6 million qualifying offer. If Boston resigns him after the season does the new contract kick in for the 2019-2020 season? I think that it does and if so that is the same year that Kyrie can opt out of his $21 million contract and resign for a huge contract. Lets assume for the sake of argument that he resigns for $35 million per. Al is likely to take the $30 million that same year so you have a situation where Hayward, Horford and Irving will eat up $97 Million. If Marcus accepts a deal around $12 that pushes you up to $109 leaving not a lot left for Tatum, Brown, Rozier, etc. etc. What about Baynes? He is a free agent after the season. How much will it cost to keep him? What happens if Bostons lands the 2-5 pick? How much will that cost?

Are the Celtics ready to move into the luxury tax arena?

The issue is not really knowing what value Marcus has on the open market. One thing seems clear. Celtics players like Turner ans KO got nice deals elsewhere. I have read where Marcus could command something in the neighborhood of $18 million per year.

I maintain that Boston will not offer Marcus a big contract unless he gets his offensive game together. He remains a ghastly shooter despite a few flashes here and there. (remains at 347% and .296% from deep) Marcus is 5th on the team in FGA and 2nd in 3PT attempts. He takes too many bad shots. But we will see how this impacts the decision this summer.

dboss

I want to make a correction here in terms of the Smart Qualifying offer. If Marcus signs he would play next year for around $6 million. He is likely to reject and become a RFA. Boston can match and the new contract would kick in next season.

The impact on Boston's luxury tax situation would become an issue the following year (2019-20) because of Ivring.

The good thing for Boston is that not a lot of teams have Cap space and therefore Boston may be able to keep him on the cheap. That would be the best case scenario.

dboss

I do think more and more teams are going to watch how they throw their money around. There are alot of bad contracts out there that teams cannot get out from under. It is really scary some of the contracts that marginal players have gotten.

We say that Marcus has to get his offensive game on an even keel, yet look at how many big shots he has hit this year. He will never be known as an offensive player, defense is where he will continue to define his game. But, look at Bruce Bowen, he had a great career, won ? titles with San Antonio, and whoever he played against hated seeing him on the court.

I think each year we have seen Marcus improve. I find it hard to believe Stevens won't fight to keep him. He goes to him during crunch time almost every game.
I personally would not want see him on another team facing us!!

I would not want to see him on another team either.

However I have not seen any substantial improvement on offense.  He still is a very unreliable shooter.  How valuable is a defensive player on a team with 5 players in the top 10 in Defensive rating.

The Celtics have to be willing to pay the tax if they want to keep him.  

Dboss

I believe his agent was looking for $18-20 million. Way, way, way too much for DA to bite. That is why he became a restricted free agent. So......Danny will have to match some nut out there with deep pockets who will throw crazy money at him. There are some really unhappy overpaid players out there

An insane fact:

Marcus is 5th on the team in FGA and 2nd in 3PT attempts

The good news is only around 5 teams with cap space.  If the top free agents resign with their own teams that is not good but if the teams with CAP space land the top FA there may not be as much interest in Marcus.

Dboss

kdp59 wrote:letting the market set Smarts next deal is a good move.

since he is one of out top 5 players in minutes played, I think he will be back. and yes on a market deal ( $12-15M)

we are not bringing in any new big dollar FA's ( at least until Horford's deal is done), so re-signing our key players on one of the top 3-4 teams in the NBA is mandatory.

I would agree; unless a trade or two changes the landscape somewhat.

RosalieTCeltics wrote:This was just put on Boston.com, writer, John Karalis. Never heard of him, but supposedly he is a a "writer" (blogger??) for Boston.com, CelticsBlog,

Poor Marcus, how do you keep your head clear and continue to play the great
defense he has been playing while stories like this are all around you?

Hey Rosalie - can you paste the text or a link to the quote? It's hard to comment without understanding the context.

We might be well over the cap for a few years. It's not ideal but Horford's contract will be the first to drop off in that situation.


KJ

here ya go dboss

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/cap/2018/

I urge all Celtics fan who car interested in the salary cap to book mark this page, lots of good info. And you can see why we will NOT be players in other teams Free agents for a couple seasons. ( at least any more than the mid-level exception).


they have us at about $134M with the cap holds.
the tax level they have at $123M.

so we WILL be over the tax line starting next year in almost any way you build the team.

no drafts pick are included yet, they don't add those numbers until after the lottery is set.

but a top 5 pick will be $4-6m or so, I think.

11 players under contract next year at a whooping $107M

3 players with cap holds of $27M

Smart- Hold listed at $11.3M
Baynes hold at $5.193M
Larkins hold at $1.544M

draft picks will add more to our holds also.

you can find the numbers here for next year

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale/2019


so get ready for the tax zone.

I don't see any team being under the tax threshold next year who actually have a shot at a title.


KJ

k_j_88 wrote:I don't see any team being under the tax threshold next year who actually have a shot at a title.


KJ

I think you're correct.

If you want to win, you have to pay.

Will the Lakers’ draft pick end Marcus Smart’s time with the Boston Celtics?

This appeared on Boston,com but when I looked it up it was on the Tulsa newspaper. His name is John Karalis.

RosalieTCeltics wrote:Will the Lakers’ draft pick end Marcus Smart’s time with the Boston Celtics?

This appeared on Boston,com but when I looked it up it was on the Tulsa newspaper.  His name is John Karalis.

Great thanks - Think I found the piece. If this is indeed the piece you are referring to, then I feel like it is actually a pretty thoughtful article; in no way is it bashing Marcus, but rather is a sobering look at the financial realities of today's NBA. This is interesting stuff, thanks for posting about it.

For those who are interested, below I paste the link followed by the text of the article:

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-celtics/2018/01/16/will-the-lakers-draft-pick-end-marcus-smarts-time-in-boston

By John Karalis January 16, 2018
COMMENTARY

“You must gain control over your money or the lack of it will forever control you.” —Dave Ramsey

ADVERTISING

The nitty gritty of building an NBA franchise is ugly and tedious. Every great thing costs something, even if it isn’t something you want to let go.

In fact, just looking at that last sentence, written before I knew what this sentence would be, is a look into just how ugly this process really is.

You clicked on this link for an explanation of how a draft pick could impact player movement. In crafting this piece, I thought of that sentence as a nice setup to what I have floating in my head. But when I wrote it, I wrote it instinctively as if I was discussing objects, not people. The numbers and names we plug into spreadsheets and trade machines are individuals who have lived and worked in a city for years. As we’ve seen with the Isaiah Thomas trade, there is a personal impact on all of these guys.

That, though, is the business of the NBA. Danny Ainge is making deals with a singular focus: the betterment of the Boston Celtics. Ainge, who himself was traded a few times, knows more than anyone that very few teams get to completely “run it back” with the same roster as the year before. Emotional attachment to players clouds the judgement necessary to make the big deal that could change a team’s future. We’re watching and enjoying a team that turned over 80 percent of last year’s roster.

Change is inevitable. Especially for contenders committing big money to their stars.

Last June, the Celtics set out to pick Jayson Tatum with whichever draft pick they held. When Philadelphia offered them a protected pick from the Los Angeles Lakers for the right to swap places and still select Tatum, they jumped at the chance. The possibility of drafting another impact rookie means having another player on the roster with a high potential of quickly outperforming his contract.

It could also mean the end of Marcus Smart’s time in Boston.

The NBA’s collective bargaining agreement was built to prevent dynasties. More specifically, it was meant to not let big-market teams create dynasties sustained by bigger television deals and generally higher revenues. Luxury taxes were not only raised, a separate tier was created for “repeat offenders” under which teams paying taxes three times in a four-year span paid a higher rate. (This is complicated and probably boring numbers stuff for some of you but I’d highly suggest this explanation on CBAFaq.com to get the full impact of the luxury tax system).

That creates a system under which a few types of players are highly valued: The franchise mega-star, and the rookie phenom, and the supporting player over-performing his contract. Middle-class players like Smart who play very well but who will never carry a franchise, can often get caught up in the cruel finances of the NBA salary cap. Just ask Avery Bradley.

Next year’s salary cap is projected to be $101 million with a luxury tax line at $121 million. Between the big salaries of Gordon Hayward, Kyrie Irving, and Al Horford, and the already guaranteed contracts of Marcus Morris, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Terry Rozier, and Guerschon Yabusele, the Celtics will go into next season $3 million over the cap with up to seven spots to fill.

If the Celtics are trying to avoid paying a tax next year so they can extended the “repeat offender” window by one year, they will only $17 million left to spend.

This is where the Lakers pick could mess with Marcus.

Should that pick convey, the Celtics will automatically be committed to a salary based on that spot. Teams have some wiggle room when it comes to this, but most teams tend to automatically give the allowed 120% increase to that player. Here’s how that shakes out.

Selection 2018-19 Rookie Scale 120 Percent Scale
2nd $6,036,200 $7,243,440
3rd $5,420,500 $6,504,600
4th $4,887,200 $5,864,640
5th $4,425,600 $5,310,720


If you’re keeping track, getting the second pick would give the Celtics nine players to this point, about $10 million to spend, and still no contract for Marcus Smart. Throw in the Celtics’ own late-round pick (slotted for about $1.3 million), and guaranteeing the contracts of Semi Ojeleye and Daniel Theis ($2.7 million combined) and you start to see the crunch that could squeeze Smart out of Boston.

Next season is the only season moving forward where the Celtics can feasibly avoid the tax. The following three season involve potential contracts for Irving, Horford, Hayward, Brown, and Tatum. A lot of money will be spent and a lot of tough decisions will be made. That will force the Celtics to draw lines in the salary sand and say tough goodbyes along the way.

Smart very well could be one of those guys, but it’s not a foregone conclusion. He is a restricted free agent, and the ability for a team to match deals typically scares off a lot of the competition for a middle class salary player like Smart. Teams go on big spending sprees to start summers while restricted guys often twist in the wind and watch their value drop.

If the Celtics get the 5th pick, Smart’s price comes in lower than expected, and the Celtics trade away some salary (Marcus Morris becomes a prime candidate), then the odds of keeping Smart go up.

But if the Celtics strike draft gold and get that second pick, and if another team comes in with an offer north of $10 million for Smart, trading Morris might not be enough to keep Smart in Boston. Like Kelly Olynyk waiting on the Hayward decision last summer, the ping pong balls could determine if this is the last we’re seeing of Smart in Green.

I will never figure out this salary cap business. How does a team like Golden State get to stack their team with Stphen Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Dramond Green, Andre Inquodala, even Shaun Livingston has to be making a good salary. They are paying their supporting cast good money to stay intact.
Cleveland on the other hand, will have to make a good sized trade to get Joran from LAClippers, to strengthen their run into the playoffs. LBJ has to be making a ton, we all know that IT is a bargain, Love has a big contract, and their supporting cast are not big salaries to dump, so they will be okay with trading Thompson and whoever else to accommodate Jordan.

The one team that consistently keeps winning and adding players to keep them winning is San Antonio. Their salaries are in line, I do not know if they are over the cap, I doubt it very much.

So, how are you able to build a team with quality secondary players if the cap does not allow you to. We stand a chance of not only losing Smart, we very well could lose Rozier a year down the road.

This new age, salary cap run NBA is not as much fun. I watched Red build a team with shear Smart's, drafting the right guys, signing the right free agents at the end of their careers and drafting to make his team strong. Think about it,, Baily Howell, Wayne Embry, Tiny, the list goes on and on. And Everyone got a good shot at a title. I miss those days.

RosalieTCeltics wrote:I will never figure out this salary cap business. How does a team like Golden State get to stack their team with Stphen Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Dramond Green, Andre Inquodala, even Shaun Livingston has to be making a good salary.  They are paying their supporting cast good money to stay intact.  
Cleveland on the other hand, will have to make a good sized trade to get Joran from LAClippers, to strengthen their run into the playoffs. LBJ has to be making a ton, we all know that IT is a bargain, Love has a big contract, and their supporting cast are not big salaries to dump, so they will be okay with trading Thompson and whoever else to accommodate Jordan.

The one team that consistently keeps winning and adding players to keep them winning is San Antonio. Their salaries are in line, I do not know if they are over the cap, I doubt it very much.

So, how are you able to build a team with quality secondary players if the cap does not allow you to.  We stand a chance of not only losing Smart, we very well could lose Rozier a year down the road.  

This new age, salary cap run NBA is not as much fun. I watched Red build a team with shear Smart's, drafting the right guys, signing the right free agents at the end of their careers and drafting to make his team strong.  Think about it,, Baily Howell, Wayne Embry, Tiny, the list goes on and on. And Everyone got a good shot at a title.  I miss those days.

You miss those days - but you can bet that the players don't - as sports were still practicing slavery at the work place. Not all the "GOOD OLD DAYS WERE SUGAR AND SPICE".

swish