The matchup - Celtics and Orlando

We need a strong defensive effort from Perk to play Howard straight up. Hope the knee doesn't limit him.

Hey Everyone,

I took Sam's offer up and decided to join you guys for some good discussions during this series, and maybe beyond.

As far as my input on this discussion....

I'm expecting this to be war between the two teams. Even though the Magic won the season series, every game was very close (minus our Christmas day meltdown). However, at this point, whatever happened in the RS can go out the window since both teams are playing better than earlier displayed. We both battled injuries during the year, and we also had to go through the growing pains of finding chemistry with new pieces. Luckly for the Magic, they got healthy and started gelling in time for the playoffs. Now its time to win the EC Crown.

From the Magic's perspective, to win this series, they have to take care of the ball, Dwight has to stay focused and control the paint, and control our matchup advantages.

Jameer has been very careful with the ball, as his TO's are down from the RS. Not turning it over will limit the C's from getting out in transition for easy buckets. Dwight's TOs is the problem. It wasn't a problem vs. the Hawks because we were already up 20+ pts. However, in a much closer game, where every possession really counts, he's gotta do better. I'm sure Thibodeau will have everyone swarming Dwight once he puts the ball on the floor. He just has to be smart, patient, and make smart passes out of the double team.

To control the paint, Dwight has to STFU about non-calls and just play through it and remain focused on achieving the goal. The Charlotte series was a verrrrry good test for Dwight because it got his baby attitude and frustration out early. It showed him how important he is when he's on the floor and the team needs his presence to advance every round. Perk and Sheed are the two best defenders against Dwight and will certainly work to get into his head. He has to remain focused and lockdown that lane. Be patient on offense and use smarts and quickness to score. Can't try to wrestle with everyone and get called for silly offensive fouls. Whistles are gonna be called on Dwight, its given, he just has to be wise on how to use those fouls; and that's something he worked on during the Hawks series. On defense, dominate. If Perk is playing, Dwight will roam and help everyone. If Sheed is playing C, Dwight and Shard will switch. Lewis gets the perimeter player and Dwight will cover the big roaming the paint. Sheed can post up Rashard, but we know he likes to camp around the arc, lol. Its the same strategy we used last season vs. the Cavs and Z & Anderson. With Dwight defending the paint, Rondo and Tony Allen's layups won't be as affective. I hope the non-calls Pierce was getting vs. the Cavs stay as non-calls, lol. I saw a lot of contact that normally goes Pierce's way, and I'm pretty sure they'll get back to normal this series

As far as matchup advantages, the only one I can see is Lewis & KG. Kevin has been playing great ball and is looking as healthy as ever, over the last year, but lets not fool ourselves; he only a shell of himself. Jamison and Rashard are of the same mold, but in the playoffs, Lewis is, without a doubt, the better player and more aggressive. KG doesn't have the lateral quickness to recover after running Lewis off the line. A simple pumpfake will allow Shard to blow by for an easy stop-and-pop, layoff to Dwight for a high % finish or foul, or a kickout to 1 of the snipers for a 3. Next time KG comes with hesitation, Lewis is going straight up for a jumpshot. Now, I'm not saying KG won't take it to Shard in the post, but with the DPoY having your back, it makes life a lil' easier. I am sure KG will find Perk or Baby under the rim for a nyce drop off pass for an easy layup, once Dwight leaves to help.

IMO, all the other matchups are even.

Rondo vs. Jameer can go either way with how these two are playing. Rondo's competition, thus far, haven't been aggressive, and Jameer's comp haven't been the greatest of defenders. We'll most likely go under on screens and force Rondo to beat us with his shots and keep him out the lane. I have no idea how you'll defend Jameer. Over on screens = easy penetration for kickout or laup; under on screens = open jumpshot.

Allen vs. Barnes....yep, Barnes is starting out on Ray Ray. Vince is too old to be running off screens. Barnes will slow him up with length but he's got his work cut out for him. Hopefully this works and bothers Allen. In practice, Barnes has been practicing chasing Redick off screens; who, will also be defending Ray. Many Magic fans feel Redick did a very good job last year, and hope he replicates the same success. SG advantage is for the Cs.

Pierce vs. Vince....wash. Both players are crafty with the ball and know how to score.

X-factor of us is our bench. Pietrus, Redick, & Gortat need to do what they do. You'll probably see Gortat/Howard front court at some point. The X-factors for the Celtics that I'm scared of, are Sheed and.....Daniels. If Sheed is hitting his 3s....good night. And Daniels will absolutely abuse Redick on the block; hopefully Doc doesn't give him burn. I just remember a few games when we were up big, and Daniels would come in with good energy and take it to Redick in the post. That definitely kept him off the floor. If that happens again, I won't be surprised to see Redick only play when Ray is on the court (as long as he's defending him well). Why don't you guys play Nate Robinson? He torches Orlando in every 4th quarter he's played in with NY. I hope he stays in the doghouse.

People will say Celtics have momentum and Magic haven't played anyone; I agree and disagree. Nothing better than beating the media favorite and not getting respect for it. I expect nothing but fire from the Celtics. Where I disagree, Bobcats had a stifling defense that prepared us of what's to come (probably the best defense we'll face) and we had to learn to play without Dwight. When that happens again, we'll be ready. Bobcats had the #1 defense during the year and showed it during round 1. Either way, both teams will come to play with gold in their eyes and ready to fight. Its gonna be a good series and I hope it leads to some good discussions.

6 or 7 game series and it can go either way.

Good post, Nyce_1.

And welcome!!!

Nyce,

Thanks for accepting my invitation, and welcome to our board. Your thoughtful and objective analysis bears testimony to the knowledge I noted on your board. You're obviously a student of the game and must have watched a lot of Celtics ball to help form your opinions. And your civility is ready-made for our board and I am sure will be returned in kind by our posters.

Frankly, there are a lot of Celtics fans who are rather shocked that our team has done so well, given how they floundered so much during the last two-thirds of the season. My own opinion was that, when they started out 23-5, they demonstrated their potential; and potential doesn't disappear. What can disappear is the ability to capitalize on the potential, and that's exactly what happened when they went through so many games of having rag tag lineups and so much discontinuity in the lineup.

I won't try to do a rundown of a lot of individual players, because frankly I'm more interested in the synergy of team effort than in individuals. But, in thinking about the current version of the Celtics, I do think it's important to distinguish between momentum and evolution.

What I mean by that is that, yes, they're hot off a great series victory (regardless of how many people try to write it off as a Cavs loss rather than a Celtics win). But more important to me is the fact that, now that they're a united team after all the injuries, they're still evolving with nearly every game. The Celtics team you saw at the end of the Cavs series was better than the team that took the floor at the beginning of the series. Better execution. Better in teamwork. Better at protecting the ball. Better confidence and resolve. Better in mixing and matching starters and bench combinations. Better in performing under pressure.

I'll mention just one case in point. All season long, Sheed experienced a very difficult time in figuring out his role with this team. Almost by default, he wound up doing what seems to come most naturally...bombing away. During the regular season, he hoisted 0.16 three-pointers per minute played.

But things have evolved to the point where, in the playoffs, he has tried exactly half as many threes per minute (0.08). He seems to be finding his niche in the low post. He'll often start a possession in the high post, set an initial pick and space the floor. Maybe 10 seconds into the possession (frequently when they've already tried one play option), he'll repost down low where he's been pretty effective, raising his playoff shooting percentage more than 4 percentage points over the regular season.

But Sheed's most noticeable improvement, in my opinion, has been on defense. Frankly, he was in matador mode all too often during the regular season. Now he's moving better and using his length to better advantage; and, when he does that, he's a darned good defender.

He's also the bench's defensive "signal caller;" and, as he has become more comfortable in his own defensive role, I believe his comfort level has spread to other bench players. He improved during the Miami series. And he was better toward the end of the Cavs series than at the beginning. This is just one way in which this team is still evolving under trial by fire.

It will be interesting to see whether Daniels plays more of a role in this series, as you suggested. He's another one who has been searching for a niche. He seemed well on his way during the early portion of the season. Then he was out of action for a long period; and he never seemed to hit his stride after his return.

As a short guy, I'm sort of a point guard aficionado, and I'm really looking forward to seeing two very good PGs in action. I feel more comfortable when Rondo isn't dominating the Celtics scoring because his main role should be to galvanize his mates through ball distribution. He's at his best in transition, and the Celtics have slowly been moving away from the Paul Pierce deliberate style toward more opportunistic transition basketball. It will be interesting to see whether the three-point game of the Magic benefits Orlando through point escalation more than it benefits the Celtics through long rebounds facilitating their transition game.

One thing that helped the Celtics against Cleveland was that defending the Cavs was conducive to a lot of double-teaming Lebron. The number of diverse weapons represented by the Magic will present an interesting contrast for the Celtics. I'm curious to see how they'll try to handle it.

There should be many fascinating twists and turns in the series. Let the fun begin, and let's all hope for an absence of injuries on both sides.

Thanks again for posting,

Sam

nyce1

Welcome

You like many are dissing him a bit too much, your quote

Kevin has been playing great ball and is looking as healthy as ever, over the last year, but lets not fool ourselves; he only a shell of himself.

Shell?

Ask anyone thats played him in the last month and I think you will get a bit of a different answer.
You like many have been greatly influenced by the media hype i'm afraid. This team battled you hard with few healthy big bodies last year and yes you were without Nelson but Alston did a realatively good job of filling in.

Anyway what we say here isn't going to score a point or block a shot. Guess thats why they play the game.

C's win this series and I think it might be easier than the last one.

live by the three and die by it too.

Again welcome aboard!!!

beat

Nice
Good observations for the most part,glad you noticed Pierce driving and not getting the calls Wade or Bron were getting,if we say it were homers.The one thing I think you missed is our advantage at the point.Rondo is gonna blow by Nelson anytime he wants and Nelson will have problems initiating the offense with Rondos on the ball pressure.
cow

@ beat,

would you say Kevin is back to the form he was in during 2008? I said he's looked the best he has all year, but IMO, he's still not THE Kevin Garnett from then. The offense is coming back, the tenacity is there, but his quickness and explosion isn't the same; hence, he's a shell of himself.

@ cow,

Rondo will definitely get wherever he wants, no argument there. Its just I have confidence in our team defense to do a MUCH better job than Mia/Cle at funneling him to the help defense. As for Jameer, yes, Rondo's pressure may be a problem, but we run PnR all day. I don't care how good a on-ball defender you are, a Dwight Howard screen will create space for whoever has the ball (Jameer or Vince).


I can't wait for the game to start to see the adjustments and strategy's of each team.

Nyce

Welcome aboard buddy. I guess we will shortly find out whom is better. I think it is going to be a touch series.

Jeb

Nyce

A very thoughtfull and strong argument. You obviously have a deep understanding of your team and baskeball in general but i am not sure you fully apreciate that this Celtics team is not the same one that was on the court during the regular season. That makes them very dangerous.

I must take exception with your comment about KG being a shell of his former self. He has been playing great in the playoffs and has been a reliable option in the post that no one has been able to defend. His lateral quickness is an issue but I think you will see rotations out to Lewis on the perimneter to take away his looks and make it more difficult to drive the ball. I have to give the edge to KG becasue he will outrebound Lewis and match him in the scoring column.

I think the rondo/nelson matchup is of great interest to everyone. You think it could go either way. We expect that Rondo will continue to put up double digit assists and I see nothing that will prevent him from doing that. So far no one has figured out a way to stop Rajon. Put more size on him? Foul him or force him to make outside shots? I think Neslon is a very good PG but I think Rondo has already proven that he has a better all around game and runs the offense like a pure point guard.

If Ray Allen is hot and the screens are timely it really does not matter if Barnes or Carter or anyone else is on him.

The Magic have been the best team in the playoffs so no one in their right mind can take anything away from them. The Magic are favored to win just like Cleveland was favored to win.

This will be a fun series to watch.

I think both benches bring different things to the table. The Magic have more offense off the bench and the Celtics have more size and defense off the bench. The combinations on the floor will ultimately determine how these rotation players perform.

I also expect to see a guy like Anderson for the magic or Finely for the Celtics come in and make some noise.

dboss

nyce,

Welcome aboard. A very good first post to start it off.

I wouldn't say Garnett is a "shell" of his former self. He's less than he was in '08, but he's most of the way back. He's been playing extraordinarily well during these playoffs and has outplayed everybody Spoelstra and Brown threw at him. He had the height to shoot over Jamison with ease, but if his lateral movement is as bad as you paint it, neither Jamison nor Varajao was able to take advantage of it. Obviously, he's not going to be able to shoot over Lewis like he did with Jamison, but I expect him to continue to play quite well. When you have your rhythm you are hard to stop and KG has found his rhythm at the right time for us.

Jameer has stepped it up in the playoffs. Nice to see he's finally coming back from that injury. Let's be clear and fair though, Ray Felton and Mike Bibby are no Rajon Rondo. Furthermore, the team defense of the Celtics is better than those teams' defenses, so Jameer will not have it as easy.

Which might bring us to the Celtics' ace-in-the-hole: competition playoffs-to-date. We manhandled DWade and his posse, no biggie there, but we also dismantled the best team in the regular season. Orlando has had it easy with Charlotte and Atlanta. Some of the credit should go to the Magic for playing well but some of it also has to do with neither of those teams being ready for primetime. I have no idea how Charlotte got into the playoffs and Atlanta is a perfect example of "Body by Caterpillar, brain by Mattel". No way their heads were going to be strong enough to compete with last year's Finals team, I don't care how high they can jump or how fast they can run.

bob

.

Nyce,

Welcome! Its always nice to have fans from other teams here, it adds so much to this board.

It is going to be a heck of a series, and I have no idea which team has the advantage yet. I have always been a believer that if the teams are close, chemistry plays a huge role in who comes out on top. That may sound like a basic concept, but it has always amazed me at the teams that fail due to the lack of it, ie: The Cavs this year. Chemistry can fade or increase as the going gets tough.

Glad to have you here.

Pete

NYCE

Nice first post and very solid contribution - on point in most regards I think.

Jameer Nelson is going to have fits trying to keep up with Rondo - and with Rajon's arsenal of scoops, flips, and short jumpers starting to fall - Howard will no effect his drives nearly as much as with a slower player like Bibby or Felton.

There is no way Matt Barnes (or JJ Redick) is going to keep up with Ray Allen - going through 2 and 3 picks from side to side all night long. Ray is the X factor to me - as if he gets hot, Orlando is in trouble.

I think the benches are a lot closer than you made them out to be. Tony Allen is not the scorer that Pietrus is - but he is a slasher that will take it right at Gortat or whoever is in the game at center at the time. Sheed will take your backups down low, and with Davis on the boards - Celtics should control the offensive glass.

I think the Magic are the best team in the NBA right now - they are playing great ball and really meshing. They destroyed Atlanta, a team the Celtics have a ton of trouble with. But in a long series, a series of adjustments and getting familiar with your opponent, I think the Celtics experience and coaching staff will make the adjustments to win in the end.

Celtics in Six.

Thanks for the welcome, everyone.

I agree that Cats and Hawks are no Celtics, but it also goes both ways. Heat and Lebrons are no Magic. Cs haven't faced a TEAM in the playoffs yet. I give you guys much props for taking out the media darlings and proving you belong, but any mentally tough team, with composure, focus, and ability to execute, would've also beat a team with 1 superb player, disappearing Mo Williams and Jamison, and a coach who doesn't have the word "adjustment" in his vocabulary.

Jameer hasn't faced anyone to Rondo's level yet, and Rondo hasn't either. Jameer has gone up against Felton, Bibby, and Crawford. Rondo has defended Arroyo & Mo Williams. Neither of Jameer's oponents have been great defenders, and Rondo's PGs haven't been agressive offensively; save for the the first half of game 6 when Mo Williams scored 20pts.

You will say Magic haven't faced anyone yet, I could argue the same point for the Celtics. Jameer hasn't faced a real PG, and the same argument could be made for Rondo. Some things we will not agree on, but some things we'll all agree on: a)neither team is the same team we faced in the regular season; b) neither team has faced a team as good as the other in these playoffs; c) we'll have a better view of what's to come throughout the series, after game 1; d) both PGs are key to winning.

Anyone calling this a 5-game series is seriously underrating the competition.

Nyce_1 wrote:Thanks for the welcome, everyone.


Anyone calling this a 5-game series is seriously underrating the competition.

nyce,

I concur.

bob

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Nyce,

Welcome! I hope you will check in regularly through this series and beyond.

Regards

OK ladies and gentlemen,

Over-analysis leads to paralysis.

I called it Celts over Heat in 7 and Cavs over Celts in 6.

Seems like the only thing to do here is call it Magic over Celts in 6 and hope my record remains consistent.

Regards

Nyce
Are you kidding me?We took out the#1 seed,they added the Diesal and 2 athletic wings Parker and Moon plus Jamison just to be able to match up with you.Theres only 4 teams standing,you know the game,but to dismiss what we did to the reigning MVP immortal is no small feat and not any team could make them look as bad as we did.That was our defense and Rondo and KG that were the match ups they couldn't handle,Lebron had more help this year than ever.
cow

Heck nyce

so I'm nuts
C's in 4 if they win today!!

beat

NOw, Now, we are supposed to be nice to visitors! I will go with the Celtics in 6, but I really hope it is 5. After the game they played today, except for the last 6+ minutes, they were outplayed completely. Rondo and Garnett had quiet games so I look for improvement on Tuesday. Lewis will definitely be
better also, after all he is a terrific shooter.

Wouldn't it be nice to take both of them down in Orlando???

mrs t

your boy looked about 22 today...he saved us

Nyce_1 wrote:Cs haven't faced a TEAM in the playoffs yet.

Still havent.

mrkleen09 wrote:

Nyce_1 wrote:Cs haven't faced a TEAM in the playoffs yet.

Still havent.

completely right. 10 assists won't cut it. Vince went LeIso; Jameer tried to get us going with ISO plays, and we just had poor passing. All the credit to your defense.

Just making sure that they have no choice but to offer him a contract at the end of the season. He is a very valuable member of this team! He has looked great through most of the playoffs, one or two lousy games, but when he makes up his mind that he is going to score, that's it.

Good game coming from Rondo and Garnett Tuesday, added in to what Ray and PP will do.

All the garbage that has been written about Wallace all year, he is earning his money, for sure. Baby is also looking pretty good. TA in the first half, then he got sloppy with the ball and cost them some points.

Looking forward to a win on Tuesday! I think it is going to be a much different game though.

mrs t

sheed was a drain. he was. but he is suitin up and showing up when it counts.

with him we are very damn tough.