Keeping the gang together

Its been a rough few weeks for Celtics fans, first there is no way we beat the Bucks, then of course no way we beat the 76ers, and certainly even if we could beat those other two teams we cant beat, obviously we will go down in flames by the cadavers.

To make matters worse for Celtics fans, due to Rozier's terrific play now we cant afford to keep him around after this summer, and Marcus Smart? Nope cant afford him either.

Yes folks, the Celtics had a nice run, but its all but over now. Its all back to square one now that once again we wont be beating another team in the playoffs. Maybe the next rebuild can be entitled the Process 2. Or perhaps the Green Process,or.. or... or...

Or is it remotely possible that much like our odds at beating any opponent in a playoff series this season, the media is getting it all wrong about what our cap situation will really look like this summer.

How about a little edjumacation for the media.

First off the Celtics current cap situation: Currently we have 11 players on the roster for a total of $107,433,526.00. The league is expected to have the cap at about 101 million, so we'd be over right from the get go- (much like the rest of the league, which will play a vital role in shaping what we do with Marcus Smart as we'll discuss) and the league will go into luxary cap space at 123 million. Players like Greg Monroe, Baynes and Larkin will all be free agents and Marcus Smart will be a restricted free agent.

Nader has a partially guaranteed deal, $1,378,242 if he stays or $450,000 if he goes, staying on the books.

Monroe, Baynes and Larkin are all eligible for 8% increases  from the Celtics if they choose to stick around.

We can sign Smart to any size contract we so desire, which means meeting any deal that another team might offer him. (again remember this is important).

We also have the 27th pick in the 2018 nba draft with its own cap hold (right around 1.3 million I think) and the 3% chance of getting the Lakers pick which would cost us 4 million give or take as well.


Now before we start to play with play with all that information lets  switch gears for a minute and talk about other teams, and other players. NBA teams, including the Celtics have several ways to sign a player to a new contract,  Teams that will be over the cap can resign their own guys with certain restrictions, and also use the leagues Exceptions to sign away other teams players as well (or if need be structure players their resign using the exceptions as well)

What this means for Marcus Smart is that many of the other 29 markets he could explore would only be able to offer him the largest exception the Mid Level Exception which will be worth just around 8.5 million or so.  A problem for Smart is there will likely be as many as 24 teams in the league that fall into this category. While a handful of other teams could make moves to shed some contracts and thus open up some cap room. Even just a fraction of them will be able to reach the same amount as the Mid Level Exception.

And for those teams with cap space, Smart will be competing for those millions with guys like Lebron James, Demarcus Cousins,  Paul George, Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, Isiah Thomas, Tyreke Evans, Avery Bradly ect.. In other words the Market could very easily determine that, once a few big Fish are out of the picture the second tier players, The Rondo's , IT's, Bradleys and Smarts could all end up having to settle with either resigning with their current teams for the largest paydays possible or settling for the Mid Level Exception.

This could well end up being Smarts situation this summer.

Now lets consider this from Danny Ainge's position.  

Currently his team is missing its two biggest players (Irving and Hayward)  and a very promising young guys in Thies and yet are 1-0 in the Eastern Conference finals. What if Danny could bring back this team exactly as it is next year?

As its not hard to do, lets imagine that Boston doesn't get the Lakers pick this season.  

Boston could easily flip their 27th pick in the draft for a future first, thus clearing a bit more cap space to use this summer and not replacing one of the current guys with yet another rookie ( 5 or 6 of them on this team this season).  Perhaps a deal where they get another 2019 first in return?

If the market is only offering Smart the MLE we could over bid that a bit and give him say 9.5 million.  This would put us at 116.9 million. Greg Monroe would be eligable for 5.6 million and Larkin would be a bit over 1.3 million. Those would put us into Luxury cap space and mean the full MLE couldn't be used. However the Exception for teams paying luxury taxes will have the MLE reduced to just around 6 million. We could use that and put Baynes and Monroe in the same general spot pay wise.

Pretty much the same situation could be played out of Boston had to pay Smart even more money.  One way or another we're heading into Luxury tax for the up coming season.  We have a team we know will be capable competing for a title next season- hell we are doing it this season.

And looking past that season, while we can expect Smart would want a huge pay raise the next season, as well as Rozier and Irving, Horford would most likely opt to stay in his contract. Meanwhile with 5 draft picks possibly available in the 2019 draft, it would be possible to make deals to improve some positions, move up in the draft and replace guys we'd might lose.

The one thing though we don't have to focus on this summer is trying to replace Marcus Smart. Or indeed, any of our guys, this team has surpassed the media's expectations. Brad has never really had the chance to have a mostly stable roster before.  This  regular season would have been the most stable, were it not for injuries. But next season, Boston is fully capable of bring back this same group of guys, not just the core, but the entire squad.  

and that Luxury tax? They'll make up for that on the playoffs.

I agree with Matt.

Us fans should not be concerned about the money.

It's not coming out of our pockets anyway.

Thanks Matty for that detailed breakdown about the coming off season.

you break things down in a detail I could only hope to express, but we are thinking along the same lines for this off-season.

I only have a couple changes from your thinking.

1) Baynes needs to be a higher priority than Monroe for obvious reasons.

2) Keep the draft pick. Its cheap and we can get another swing at getting a future rotational player there.

3) try to get Smart signed to a longer term deal than a one year one, and at market price ($12-15M)

we could do much worst than a roster of:

Horford
Baynes- Resigned
Theis
Morris
Yabusele
Semi
Hayward
Tatum
Nader
Brown
Smart-re signed
Irving
Rozier

#27 draft pick

possibly
Larkin or another minimum wage vet for the final roster spot

Then work on Irvings extension during the season.

Rozier will be a RFA the next year and we can still match or control by sign and trade if we wish.

kdp59 wrote:Thanks Matty for that detailed breakdown about the coming off season.

you break things down in a detail I could only hope to express, but we are thinking along the same lines for this off-season.

I only have a couple changes from your thinking.

1) Baynes needs to be a higher priority than Monroe for obvious reasons.

2) Keep the draft pick. Its cheap and we can get another swing at getting a future rotational player there.

3) try to get Smart signed to a longer term deal than a one year one, and at market price ($12-15M)

we could do much worst than a roster of:

Horford
Baynes- Resigned
Theis
Morris
Yabusele
Semi
Hayward
Tatum
Nader
Brown
Smart-re signed
Irving
Rozier

#27 draft pick

possibly
Larkin or another minimum wage vet for the final roster spot

Then work on Irvings extension during the season.

Rozier will be a RFA the next year and we can still match or control by sign and trade if we wish.

kdp,

Nice post.  The only thing I would change is to take the #27 draft pick and use it for a draft and stash.  That way it leaves a roster spot open for one of those experienced veteran guys who will want to join the Celtics at the vet min level for a chance at a ring.  Even if the vet min guy isn't added until late in the season, it keeps out options open.

gyso